Showing posts with label CO2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CO2. Show all posts

Saturday, April 27, 2024

CO2 keeps accelerating

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, reported a daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, of 428.63 parts per million (ppm) on April 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 

This is the highest daily average on record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few weeks. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.94 ppm for the week beginning on April 21, 2024, i.e. 3.98 ppm higher than the 423.96 ppm for the week 1 year earlier.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the daily mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa on April 26, 2024, was 428.59 ppm, a difference of 4.7 ppm from April 26, 2023.

 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

The image below shows the daily average carbon dioxide recorded by NOAA over the past few years at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 

Clouds Tipping Point

The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) follows the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere more than a linear trend (blue). Data used are NOAA Mauna Loa weekly average CO₂ data through the week starting on April 21, 2024 (data downloaded April 28, 2024). 


The image below is the same as the image above, except that the canvas is zoomed out to show all data on record with trends extended to 2060 (X-axis) and CO₂ concentration going from 300 ppm to 1200 ppm (Y-axis). 


The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed well before 2060, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).

Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier than 2060 when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.


A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 400 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 428.63 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 828.63 ppm, i.e. only 371.37 ppm away from the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.

This 371.37 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Already now, local peaks can at times reach very high levels. The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded a peak level of 2432 ppb at 399.1 mb on April 25, 2024, am. 


The MetOp-B satellite (also known as MetOp-1) recorded a peak methane level of 3644 ppb and a mean level of 1944 ppb at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm, as illustrated by the image below. 
[ from earlier post ]
[ from earlier post ]
Catastrophic crack propagation is what makes a balloon pop. Could low-lying clouds similarly break up and vanish abruptly? Could peak greenhouse gas concentrations in one spot break up droplets into water vapor, thus raising CO₂e and propagating break-up of more droplets, etc., to shatter entire clouds?

Could a combination of high CO₂ levels and high peak levels of methane suffice to cause the clouds tipping point to be crossed?

Moreover, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the rise in CO₂e, as discussed at the Extinction page and this earlier post that warn about the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C to unfold as early as 2026.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. 

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

[ from earlier post ]

The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson


If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

[ image from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links
• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa 

• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html


• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

• Potential temperature trends

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• CO2 rise is accelerating


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Friday, March 15, 2024

CO2 rise is accelerating

On March 15, 2024, the daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 427.93 parts per million (ppm), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. 

This is the highest daily in situ average in the NOAA record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few months. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows 31 days of CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The image shows that a daily mean CO₂ of 427.93 ppm was recorded on March 15, 2024, and that many of the hourly averages that were recorded in April 2024 were higher than 430 ppm.

The image below, adapted from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, shows that CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.80 ppm on March 14, 2024. The background shows six months of CO₂ ending March 15, 2024. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the monthly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa in March 2024 was 425.38 ppm, a growth of 4.39 ppm compared to March 2023. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

Temperature rise

The February 2024 global surface temperature is 1.75°C or 3.15°F when compared to a base of 1886-1915, i.e. a 30-year period centered around the year 1900, as illustrated by the image below. The image shows part (from 1980) of a graph based on NASA Land+Ocean data from January 1880 through February 2024, with the black squares showing the raw monthly data. 

The rise is as large as 2.74°C or 3.132°F when compared to a pre-industrial base and when also taking into account ocean air temperatures and higher polar anomalies, as indicated in the bright yellow inset on the image below. 

Lowess smoothing (red line, 1 year window) highlights variability between years and the huge rise that has occurred recently, which is partly caused by variability such as associated with El Niño. 

The red line also highlights the potential for an even larger rise to come soon, as feedbacks and further developments start to kick in with greater ferocity, contributing to non-linear and abrupt temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. 

The use of an early date for a pre-industrial base is discussed at the pre-industrial page and is supported by recent analysis of sponges collected in the Caribbean, illustrated by the image below.

[ from earlier post ]

Other recent research debunks the idea that Earth’s surface (across land and sea) has experienced really hot temperatures over the last two billion years. Instead, it shows that Earth has had a relatively stable and mild climate. This makes the threat of a huge temperature rise over the next few years even more menacing. 

The temperature is rising most rapidly in the Arctic. Loss of sea ice threatens to accelerate the temperature rise in the Arctic even more, and cause destabilization of methane hydrates at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and thawing of permafrost on land, resulting in massive releases of greenhouse gases, further acceleration of the temperature rise and widespread extinction of species (including humans) as early as in the year 2026.

Clouds Tipping Point

The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) can better capture the acceleration in the rise in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere than a linear trend (blue). 

The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed before 2100, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).

Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier when also taking into account methane. Monthly methane was about 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.


A methane concentration of 1960 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 392 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 427.93 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 819.93 ppm, i.e. only 380.07 ppm away from the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.

This 380.07 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Furthermore, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the temperatures rise, as discussed at the Extinction page, which shows that, altogether, there is the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C by 2026.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. 

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

[ from earlier post ]

The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson


If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

[ image from earlier post ]

Meanwhile, Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links
• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa 

• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/8012665172096853

• ‘Revolutionary’: EU Parliament votes to criminalise most serious cases of ecosystem destruction 

• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html


• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

• Potential temperature trends

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• NASA GISTEMP - Temperature analysis Plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Tragedy set to unfold in tropics 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/tragedy-set-to-unfold-in-tropics.html

• 300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - by Malcolm McCulloch et al. (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7
discussed at facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161250170389679

• Oxygen isotope ensemble reveals Earth’s seawater, temperature, and carbon cycle history - by Terry Isson et al. 
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Saturday, March 2, 2024

Arctic sea ice set for steep decline


The February 2024 temperature (at 2 meter) was much higher than in 1951-1980, especially in the Arctic, as the above image shows.


The above image is adapted from NASA and shows an average February 2024 temperature anomaly of 1.44°C above 1951-1980, with anomalies showing up as high as 11°C. 


The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

Two trends are added, the blue trend is based on all data (Jan.1880-Feb.2024) and the magenta trend is based on a shorter period (Jan.2010-Feb.2024), to better reflect variables such as El Niño and non-linear feedbacks as discussed in the page Feedbacks in the Arctic and in this recent post. 

Ocean temperature


Sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high of 21.22°C on March 10, 2024, in the Climate Reanalyzer daily records that go back to 1981. 

Sea surface temperatures may get even higher later this year. What could make the sea surface temperature go up even higher?

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The highest daily sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. 

This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023.

There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to NOAA predictions updated February 26, 2024.

The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, January 2000-February 2024 NOAA data (degrees Celsius).

After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperatures have come down only a little bit in Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, raising the potential for a huge rise in ocean heat later in 2024 that threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and abruptly enter the atmosphere.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Ocean heat content keeps rising at a rate of change that is non-linear, as illustrated by the image below, by Zack Labe.


North Atlantic

The animation below, from Nahel Belgherze, illustrates how much hotter the North Atlantic has been over the past 365 days, while a big rise in temperature can be expected over the next few months, due to the change in season.


In February 2024, the temperature (at 2 meter) over the North Atlantic was 1.927°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. 

The map below shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 in February 2024. 


Arctic surface air temperature

The surface air temperature in the Arctic (66.5-90°N, 0-360°E) was 5.2°C above 1979-2000 on March 3, 2024, the highest anomaly on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Arctic sea ice

As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.746 million km² on March 6, 2024. 


As the above image shows, there are a few years with lower sea ice extent during this time of year than in 2024, which could be due to more water vapor in the air causing more precipitation in the Arctic. At this time of year, Arctic sea ice has typically reached its maximum annual extent and goes into steep descend until half September. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months. 


As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume is already at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic. Given that Arctic sea ice currently is not at a record low extent for the time of year, this indicates that the sea ice is very thin, due to ocean heat causing sea ice to melt from below. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

Emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases keep rising

Meanwhile, emissions keep rising. The image below, adapted from IEA, shows the increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1900-2023. 


February 2024 CO₂ was about 425 ppm (background image below). February 2023 CO₂ was 420.3 ppm (inset right). The highest annual rise on record is about 3 ppm, reached in 1998 and in 2015/2016 (inset left). 

The threat

The threat of a huge, abrupt temperature rise has been described many times before, e.g. on the Threat page that describes many elements contributing to the threat, both cumulatively and interactively, with some of the content dating back as far as 2007. Another page with more background is the Extinction page.

Further illustrating the threat is the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. The image shows what the temperature anomaly (at 2 meter and compared to 1851-1900) could be by 2100. Such a temperature rise may unfold much earlier when including numerous feedbacks kicking in strongly.


What can strongly contribute to such a rise is that, without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ The buffer is gone - Latent Heat Tipping Point crossed ]
Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NASA - Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (February 26, 2024 update)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Ocean heat content - image by Zack Labe

• North Atlantic daily sea surface temperature - animation by Nahel Belgherze
https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report

• Keeling Curve, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego - CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOOA - Monthly Averages CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOAA - annual increase of CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• The Threat









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Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Accelerating global warming and amplifying feedbacks: The imperative of CO₂ drawdown

by Andrew Glikson

Satellite measurements indicate that 2021 was one of the warmest years on record, with the past seven years being the hottest period recorded globally (Met Office, January 10, 2022). Attempts at global emission reductions, lowered in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, appear to have little effect on atmospheric CO₂ rise, as indicated by the current rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide to record high levels of 420 ppm despite reduced emissions in 2020-2021 (Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1. A. Mean global CO₂ levels from 800,000 years to the present (NASA).
        B. Mean global temperature rise from 1850 to 2021 (Berkeley Earth).

As stated by CarbonBrief: “The year so far has been one of extremes, featuring record-shattering heatwaves, wildfires and flooding, as well as the warmest-ever northern-hemisphere summer – June, July and August – in the global land-surface record.”

Whereas climate negotiations mostly focus on possible reductions in emissions, the cumulative buildup of greenhouse gases is determining the future of the terrestrial climate. According to NASA “Once it’s (CO₂) added to the atmosphere, it hangs around, for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years".

Other estimates are much longer. Because of the longevity of CO₂ and other greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, a decrease in carbon emissions, while essential, is not sufficient to reduce CO₂ levels in the atmosphere in time.

According to the IPCC “about 50% of a CO₂ increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years”. According to the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) “Atmospheric lifetime: 50-200 years. No single lifetime can be defined for CO₂ because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes”.

According to Solomon et al. (2009) and Eby et al. (2009) high levels of CO₂ on the scale of 10² to 10³ ppm would persist for millennia.

Global emission reductions, decreased in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, have little effect on the atmospheric CO₂ level, as indicated by the current trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide, at record high levels despite reduced emissions in 2020 (Figure 2). This suggests to a significant extent the current rise in atmospheric CO₂ arises from amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.

Figure 2. A. Observed and forecast monthly and annual CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa.
Observations from the Scripps CO2 program, forecasts from Met Office. Credit: Met Office.
B. Measured and forecast monthly CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.
Black line: measurements by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Solid red line
with vertical uncertainty bars: forecast by the Met Office, including the revised forecast for 2020
issued in May 2020 accounting for reduced global emissions due to societal responses to Covid-19.
The forecast uncertainty estimate is ± 0.6 ppm. Dotted red line: original Met Office forecast for
2020 issued in January 2020, not accounting for Covid-related emissions reductions.
Horizontal dashed blue line: 417 ppm, a 50% increase above 278 ppm, the level in 1750-1800
from ice core records.

All taking place notwithstanding hollow promises made at COP26, a meeting noted for the near-absence of contributions by climate scientists.

In trying to avoid an exponential rise in greenhouse gases toward catastrophic levels, one option exists, namely urgent attempts at drawing down at least part of the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. The $trillions of dollars required, constituting the “Price of the Earth”, may not exceed the $trillion dollars military expenses spent by the world over the last 70 years, including nuclear missile fleets which constitute a separate threat for life on Earth, as warned by Albert Einstein: “The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe”.


Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

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