Showing posts with label Antarctica. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Antarctica. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Focus on Antarctica

The Antarctic sea ice area was 1.27 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on September 23, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.05σ, as illustrated by the image below.


This is far below what the Antarctic sea ice area was in 1981-2010. If the situation gets worse over the next few months, an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may well occur early 2026. In 2023, the Antarctic sea ice was very close to a Blue Ocean Event, with an area of only 1.09 million km² left on February 22, 2023, a deviation of -3.03σ, as illustrated by the image below.

[ image from earlier post, click to enlarge ]
The image below shows the Antarctic sea ice thickness on September 23, 2025. 


The image below shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 23, 2025. 


Earth's energy imbalance

Temperatures keep rising as Earth's energy imbalance keeps rising, which results from a combination of high (and rising) levels of pollution (including concentrations of greenhouse gases, other gases and warming aerosols) and loss of Earth's albedo (reflectivity). Furthermore, rising temperatures come with feedbacks that can speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. 

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows Earth's Energy Imbalance through July 2025 (12-month running mean). 


The image below, by Leon Simons,  shows the Energy Imbalance in the Northern Hemisphere (left) and the Southern Hemisphere (right).  


Albedo loss over the years is illustrated by the graph below, by Eliot Jacobson (based on data through July 2025, 36-month running average). 


Albedo loss results from a decrease in cooling aerosols and from certain feedbacks that are kicking in with increasing ferocity as temperatures rise, including less lower clouds and decline of the snow and ice cover. With the temperature rise also come further feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere and more extreme weather events that can cause deforestation and associated reductions in cooling aerosols, as illustrated by the Danger Diagram below. 


Many feedbacks are self-amplifying and can also amplify other feedbacks, further speeding up acceleration of the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ from earlier post ]
El Niño 2026 prospect

Furthermore, a new El Niño may emerge soon. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that fluctuates from El Niño to La Niña conditions and back. El Niño raises temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. This year, there have been neutral to borderline La Niña conditions, as illustrated by the image below, which shows the rises and falls of the sea surface temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño. 


On September 27, 2025, the temperature reached an anomaly in this area of -0.67°C versus 1991-2020. The inset on the above image shows the Niño 3.4 area and the sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 that day. The low temperatures in Niño 3.4 over the past few months indicate that La Niña conditions will likely dominate in the remainder of 2025, which implies suppression of the 2025 global temperatures.

A strong La Niña could spell bad news for Antarctic sea ice. A recent study led by Shaoyin Wang shows that the triple-dip La Niña event during 2021–2023 played a major role in record low February Antarctic sea ice extent reached in 2022 and 2023, while the Antarctic ice sheet experienced a transient mass gain rebound.

As also described in earlier posts such as this one and this one, more water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and part of it falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer. As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

[ image from earlier post ]
On the other hand, a new El Niño may emerge soon. The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows an ENSO forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through August 2026, indicating that the next El Niño may emerge in 2026 and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

In conclusion, an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may occur early 2026 and this could be followed by an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026, in particular if a strong El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026 and further feedbacks are triggered, such as seafloor methane eruptions. 

Why a Blue Ocean Event is so dangerous

[ from earlier post ]
PIOMAS estimates that 16,400 km³ of ice is lost every year (1979-2010 average) from April to September, consuming an amount of energy of 5 x 10²¹ Joules (the image on the right shows calculations, click on this link or on the image to enlarge).

Once the latent heat buffer is lost, further heat must go elsewhere. During the phase change from ice to water, the temperature doesn't rise, i.e. all the energy goes into the process of changing ice into water. Once all ice has melted, further heat will raise the temperature of the water. The amount of energy that is consumed in the process of melting the ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero°C to 80°C. 


Decline of the snow and ice cover comes with numerous feedbacks, the loss of the latent heat buffer (feedback #14 on the feedbacks page) is only one of them. Further feedbacks include the loss of albedo (feedback #1), increases in emissions (feedback #2), loss of emissivity (feedback #23), while there are also changes to the Jet Stream (feedback #14) and changes to clouds and water vapor (feedback #20), and there are mechanisms and circumstances aggravating the danger, such as the slowdown of AMOC and further changes to ocean currents.

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]
Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.

Eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean (feedback #16) is one of the most dangerous feedbacks. As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean heats up, heat can penetrate sediments and cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in eruption of methane. As the seas in the Arctic Ocean can be very shallow, the methane can erupt with force in the form of plumes, with little opportunity for the methane to get decomposed in the water. Furthermore, there is very little hydroxyl in the air over the Arctic, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic.

Ominously, the sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 in the north mid latitudes (inset) reached a record monthly high of 1.657°C in August 2025, as illustrated by the image below.


Meanwhile, the Arctic sea ice remains at a record low daily volume, as it has been for more than a year.  

The methane danger is also illustrated by the image below, adapted from an image issued by NOAA September 29, 2025, showing hourly methane averages recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North. 


The image below shows methane concentrations as high as 2622 parts per billion (ppb) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite on September 30, 2025 am, at 399.1 mb. Note the high methane concentrations over the Arctic, over Antarctica and over the Antarctic sea ice.


Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.” 

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Record high increase in carbon dioxide
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/04/record-high-increase-in-carbon-dioxide.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/09/double-blue-ocean-event-2026.html

• Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 - by Shaoyin Wang et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01066-0

• Extreme Heat Risk
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/08/extreme-heat-risk.html

• Saltier water, less sea ice 




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Thursday, September 18, 2025

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2026. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice falls to or under 1 million km², which could occur early 2026 for Antarctic sea ice area and in Summer 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice area.

Arctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 2.70 million km² on September 9, 2025, the fourth-lowest minimum area, as illustrated by the image below. 

The low Arctic sea ice area is worrying, especially when considering that this minimum was reached in the absence of El Niño conditions. Lower air temperatures are now causing rapid growth of Arctic sea area, which is sealing off the Arctic Ocean and this makes it more difficult for ocean heat to be transferred to the atmosphere. Furthermore, Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on September 16, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below. 


More ocean heat could therefore reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to be released. Eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is one of the most dangerous feedbacks of rising temperatures. As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean heats up, heat can penetrate sediments and cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in eruption of methane. Since the seas in the Arctic Ocean can be very shallow, methane eruptions can occur abruptly, with great force and in the form of plumes, leaving little opportunity for the methane to get decomposed in the water. Furthermore, there is very little hydroxyl in the air over the Arctic, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic.

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]
The above image illustrates the danger. Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.

The danger is also illustrated by the image below, adapted from an image issued by NOAA September 18, 2025, showing hourly methane averages recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North. 


Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual maximum of 13.73 million km² on September 5, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.08σ, as illustrated by the image below. 
Loss of sea ice area results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead more heat getting absorbed by the ocean. 

[ image from earlier post ]

Sea ice area is low at both poles, despite the absence of El Niño conditions. Low global sea ice area causes more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean. Global sea ice area was 2.40 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on September 16, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of 3.91σ. 

With sea ice area low at both poles, global sea ice area could fall further over the next few months, thus causing even more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean and threatening to cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026.  

On March 1, 2025, Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 1.21 million km², almost as low as the 1.09 million km² reached on February 22, 2023 (highlighted), as illustrated by the image below. 


A study by Duspayev et al. (2024) calculates that global sea ice has lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, corresponding with an implied global sea ice albedo feedback of 0.24–0.38 W m⁻² K⁻¹.

The IPCC has failed to warn about Antarctic sea ice decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in a 2023 post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, since Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post [and in the video below]. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation in Antarctica. 


An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026 would further accelerate the global temperature rise, thus likely causing an Arctic Blue Ocean Event as well later in 2026. Further increasing this danger is the potential for an El Niño to emerge in the course of 2026. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.


Links

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html





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Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Saltier water, less sea ice

The Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC) used to be driven by a cold freshwater layer resulting from melting Antarctic sea ice, enabling circumpolar waters to cool off and freshen, making them more dense and sink to the bottom. 
[ Antarctic waters sinking to the bottom, click on images to enlarge ]
This is illustrated by the above image, from a study led by Violaine Pellichero (2018), showing water-mass transformation within the Southern Ocean mixed-layer under sea-ice. Schematic cross-section illustrating the main water-masses in the Southern Ocean (Antarctic Intermediate and Mode Waters in red, Circumpolar Deep Waters in gray, and Dense Shelf Waters and Antarctic Bottom Waters in blue) and their interaction with ice and the surface. The water-masses are denoted by their neutral density values and the arrows corresponding to each water-masses indicate subduction (downward) or upwelling (upwards). The violet arrows illustrate the effect of northward sea-ice extent and freshwater transport. The green line is the mixed-layer.

A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) finds that, over the years, surface waters have become more salty.
By combining satellite observations with data from underwater robots, researchers built a 15-year picture of changes in ocean salinity, temperature and sea ice, as illustrated by the above image. Around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash. 
When surface waters become saltier, they sink more readily, stirring the ocean’s layers and allowing heat from the deep to rise. This upward heat flux can melt sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

In addition to heat rising up from the deep, there is the danger that increasing amounts of both heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂), previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise.

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the recent study. 


The video below by @JustHaveaThink also discusses the recent study. 


Saltier water, less sea ice

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice ]
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

What is causing the Southern Ocean surface to become more salty? Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, such as stronger evaporation resulting in both a lot more water vapor and a lot more heat getting transferred from the surface to the atmosphere. 

Much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, but part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica. Increased snowfall over Antarctica can be attributed to rising air temperatures and stronger evaporation, changes in atmospheric circulation and the effects of ozone depletion. 

Furthermore, 7% more water vapor will remain in the atmosphere for every degree Celsius rise in temperature. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this will further increase temperatures, making it a self-amplifying feedback that can significantly contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Accumulating feedbacks

Warmer oceans result in stronger stratification (feedback #29), further contributing to make it harder for heat to reach the deeper parts of oceans. As a result, a larger proportion of the heat that was previously entering oceans will instead remain in the atmosphere or accumulate at the ocean surface, and slowing down of the Atlantic Meriodinal Overturning Circulation (AMOC) further contributes to this. 
[ from earlier post ]
More evaporation typically makes the sea surface more salty, while more precipitation, melting of sea ice and run-off from rivers and glaciers typically make the ocean surface fresher. As the recent study shows, the Southern Ocean surface is becoming more salty, which contributes to higher sea surface temperatures and in more melting of the sea ice. It's a self-amplifying feedback, in that saltier water at the ocean surface draws up more heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow. Increasing amounts of heat and CO₂ that were previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, threaten to instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise. 

Less sea ice also comes with loss of albedo (water is less reflective than ice, feedback #1), loss of the latent heat buffer (as sea ice disappears, heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting, and the heat will instead go into increasing the temperature, feedback #14) and loss of emissivity (water is less efficient than ice in emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum, feedback #23), while warmer water result in more water vapor and less low-level clouds that reflect sunlight back into space (feedback #25). 

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates that higher temperatures come with feedbacks and the impact of one feedback can amplify the impact of other feedbacks.


The above image depicts some of the dangers of feedbacks for the Arctic. Many feedbacks also apply to the Antarctic, but the bottom part of the image on the right may be particularly applicable to the Southern Hemisphere, which has more ocean surface and Antarctica constitutes a huge land mass on and around the South Pole. 

Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, our global ocean has absorbed about 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades due to increasing greenhouse gases, and the top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere, as described by a NASA post. 

Even a small change could therefore result in a huge rise in the global air temperature.

Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• The southern ocean meridional overturning in the sea-ice sector is driven by freshwater fluxes - by Violaine Pellichero (2018) 

• Rising surface salinity and declining sea ice: A new Southern Ocean state revealed by satellites - by Alessandro Silvano et al. (2025)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2500440122
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162876582119679

• Abrupt Antarctic Ocean Regime Shift: Reversed SMOC - Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation - video by Paul Beckwith 
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Monday, January 6, 2025

Sea ice decline January 2025

Antarctic sea ice

[ Antarctic sea ice, click on images to enlarge ]
The above images, adapted from University of Bremen and ClimateReanalyzer.org, illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) and of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 9, 2025, and the sea ice concentration on January 9, 2025.

The compilation image below shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 5, 2025, when the sea surface temperature off the coast of East Antarctica was 1.6°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly from 1981-2011 of 1.8°C (image right).

[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 5, 2025, click on images to enlarge ]
Changes to ocean currents can contribute to more heat accumulating at the ocean surface and underneath the surface, resulting in more Antarctic sea ice melting from below and losing thickness. Where the temperature of the (saline) ocean water rises above -1.8°C (28.7°F), the sea ice will start melting away from below.

[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 8, 2025, click on images to enlarge ]
The above compilation image shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 8, 2025, when the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean was 22.5°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly of 5.2°C compared to 1981-2011 (image right).


The above image shows zonal mean ocean temperature trends down to 2000 m, from Cheng et al. 


The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.  

High temperatures despite La Niña

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomaly colored by ENSO values, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are strongly present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived.


Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.23°C on January 10, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends in the image below. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

[ temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added ]
The image below, created with NASA data through December 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomalies have been above 1.5°C compared to this base for 18 consecutive months (from July 2023 through December 2024). The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.

[ monthly temperature anomalies compared to 1903-1924 ]
The image below shows that temperature anomalies for the past two years (2023 and 2024) have been at least 1.5°C above this custom 1903-1924. The red line again shows a 2-year Lowess Smoothing trend. 

[ 2023 and 2024 temperature anomalies compared to 1903-1924 ]
Note that the 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies may be well above 2°C, as discussed at the pre-industrial page and in many earlier posts such as this one.

Sea surface temperature anomalies are also very high, as high as 8.5°C off the coast of Japan (at the green circle) on January 8, 2025.

[ Sea surface temperature anomaly on January 8, 2025 ]
The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Keep in mind that the last El Niño wasn't even very strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]
In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots that are higher than expected are peaking in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C. 

There are numerous additional mechanisms that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise, such as loss of sea ice and changes in ocean currents that could cause oceans to take up less heat and more heat to instead remain in the atmosphere. The dangers increase as sea surface temperatures keep rising.

[ Global Sea surface temperature ]
The Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal temperature peaks are more extreme, could be hit strongly. One of the largest dangers is that huge amounts of methane could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing permafrost. The images above and below illustrate the danger, showing an even steeper rise of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. 

[ NH Sea surface temperature ]
As temperatures keep rising, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with accelerating ferocity, such as more water vapor in the atmosphere, less lower clouds and changes to wind patterns, further accelerating the temperature rise and contributing to extreme weather disasters hitting the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, the danger of rapidly rising temperatures is particularly high. This can trigger widespread flooding, fires, drought, famine, heat stress, storms and other weather disasters, while crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world. 

[ Aerosols, from earlier post ]
As illustrated by the above combination image, changes in aerosols could cause temperatures to rise strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular in the Arctic. As industrial activity grinds to a halt, temperatures could rise due to a loss of cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such a as this one. 

At the same time, releases of heating aerosols could increase due to more burning of wood and biofuel, more forest fires, peat field fires and urban fires, and more burning of industrial facilities and waste pits. Black and brown carbon cause the air temperature to rise, while they also darken the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume ]
These mechanisms could jointly cause the global temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial and drive many species (including humans) into extinction by 2026, as has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. 

Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record low for the time of year. The image on the right, from dmi.dk, shows volume through January 13, 2025 (black arrow points at 2025 Arctic sea ice volume). 

High sea surface temperature anomalies are forecast for the Arctic Ocean for August 2025, as illustrated by the image below, from tropicaltidbits. 

[ Sea surface temperatures anomalies ]
As illustrated by the image below, very high temperature anomalies are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for October 2025.

[ Temperature Anomalies (2 m) ]
  
Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?

• Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024 - by Lijing Cheng et al. (2025)

• Berkeley Earth
• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña


• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

• Paris Agreement thresholds crossed 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Climate at a Glance - Global Time Series

• pre-industrial

• Sunspots

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