Showing posts with label Peter Carter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peter Carter. Show all posts

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Arctic sea ice May 2025

[ Arctic sea ice thickness, click on images to enlarge ]
The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice thickness on March 13, 2025 (left), April 28, 2025 (center) and May 13, 2025 (right). The image on the right shows more open water off the coast of Siberia.


[ Arctic sea ice concentration ]
The above image is a screenshot of part of a NASA Worldview satellite image for May 1, 2025. The image similarly shows open water off the coast of Siberia. The red dots indicate fires. 

The image on the right, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on May 13, 2025. 

Arctic sea ice is under threat as numerous conditions are becoming increasingly dire, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

For some of these conditions, further updates are added below (carbon dioxide, temperature, variables and Arctic sea ice). 

Carbon dioxide

A daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration of 431.25 parts per million (ppm) was recorded on May 10, 2025, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the highest daily average on record. 
CO₂ concentrations haven't been below 430 ppm for 14 days in a row at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the above image, which shows CO₂ for the last 31 days through May 10, 2025. The image below gives another view of daily concentrations. 

One has to go back millions of years in time to find CO₂ concentrations this high, while the impact of high CO₂ concentrations back in history was lower due to lower solar output and the rate of change was also much slower, as also discussed in an earlier post.

The image below illustrates that the weekly mean CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 430.60 ppm in the week beginning on April 27, 2025, i.e. 4.02 ppm higher than the weekly value from one year ago (green inset).
Weekly CO₂ for the week starting May 4, 2025, was 430.86 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, compared to 426.92 ppm one year ago, a difference of 3.94 ppm, as illustrated by the image below.


The annual global average surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for 2024 was 422.79 parts per million (ppm). CO₂ concentrations grew by 3.75 ppm during 2024, the highest growth rate on record, as discussed in an earlier post.

Temperature 

The global surface air temperature was 15.72°C on 9 May 2025, the highest temperature on record for this day, as illustrated by the image below. 

The global surface air temperature was 15.75°C on 10 May 2025, again the highest temperature on record for this day. The image below shows ERA5 daily temperature anomalies from end 2022 through May 10, 2025, with two trends added, a black linear trend and a red cubic (non-linear) trend that reflects stronger feedbacks and that follows ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions more closely. This red trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise.


The shading added in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions that push up temperatures (pink shading), La Niña conditions that suppress temperatures (blue shading), or neutral conditions (gray shading). The trends warn about feedbacks and further mechanisms pushing up temperatures over the next few years.

The above image shows two bases to compare the anomalies with, 1991-2000 (left axis) and 1901-1930 (right axis). Neither of these two bases is pre-industrial, anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

The image below shows NASA monthly data through April 2025 compared to a custom 1903-1924. This 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial either, anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. The monthly temperature anomaly has now been more than 1.5°C higher than this 1903-1924 base for 22 consecutive months (July 2023 through April 2025, marked with red text). Anomalies are rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at 2°C higher than 1903-1924 getting crossed in the course of 2027.

[ more than 1.5°C above base for 22 consecutive months, trend points at 2°C above 1903-1924 crossed in 2027 ]
The picture can change when using a different base that anomalies are compared with. To illustrate this, the image below uses the decade from 1904 through 1913 as a custom base, resulting in higher anomalies and a trend pointing at 2°C above this base (1904-1913) getting crossed in the course of 2026.
[ trend points at 2°C above 1904-1913 getting crossed in 2026 ]
An earlier analysis of pre-industrial suggests that using 1750 as a base could add as much as 0.3°C to the historic rise, while using a 3480 BC base could add as much as 0.79°C to the historic rise. 

Those who seek to sabotage climate action typically call for use of a base that minimizes the historic temperature rise. A higher historic rise can imply that temperatures are already higher than the thresholds that politicians at the adoption of the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed, and it can also imply that the temperature rise is accelerating more due to stronger feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere and disappearance of lower clouds, so that would constitute a stronger call for climate action. 

The Arctic is hit hardest by the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below, which shows temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1981 for the period from November 2024 through April 2025. 


The image below illustrates that the global temperature was at a record high for the time of year for five days in a row, i.e. from April 24, 2025, through April 28, 2025.

Variables

Some variables have a short-term impact on the temperature rise, including volcanoes, sudden stratospheric warming, sunspots and El Niño/La Niña variations. There have been no volcano eruptions and no sudden stratospheric warming events recently that could have provided significant cooling. Sunspots are at a high point in this cycle, which pushes up temperatures. Regarding ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), current conditions are ENSO-neutral, highlighting the significance of the high current temperatures, while a new El Niño may emerge soon. The image below shows NOAA's ENSO outlook dated May 11, 2025.


The image below shows temperatures through May 9, 2025, in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño.

[ temperature in Niño 3.4 area ]

Mechanisms such as self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, and further developments such as loss of the aerosol masking effect, can jointly contribute to further accelerate the temperature rise, resulting in a rise from pre-industrial of more than 10°C, while in the process also causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed and that can push the temperature rise up by a further 8°C, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice volume and area

Loss in sea ice can dramatically push up temperatures, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. High ocean temperatures are causing Arctic sea ice volume to be very low compared to earlier years. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume over the years in red for April, the month when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its maximum volume for the respective year. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume from 2000, with markers indicating volume in September (red) and in April (blue), corresponding to the year's minimum- and maximum volume. 
The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through May 14, 2025.
The image below illustrates that Arctic sea ice disappears not only as it melts away from below, due to heating up of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice can also disappear as it gets broken up by ocean currents and moves out of the Arctic Ocean. The image shows how, on May 6, 2025, the sea ice gets broken up just north of the northern tip of Greenland, due to ocean currents that will also move the pieces to the south, alongside the edges of Greenland, toward the North Atlantic. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
On May 13, 2025, Arctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day, as illustrated by the image below. 
The comparison with the year 2012 is important, since Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest minimum in 2012. Arctic sea ice area was only 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, i.e. 1.24 million km² above a Blue Ocean Event. While on May 13, 2025, Arctic sea ice area was only 0.8 million km² lower than on May 8, 2012, the difference between anomalies typically gets narrower in May. Therefore, if the difference between 2025 and 2012 will widen again, a Blue Ocean Event may occur in September 2025, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Methane

Loss of Arctic sea ice can also trigger a very dangerous feedback: eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane in the atmosphere is already very high and large additional methane releases threaten to cause hydroxyl depletion, in turn extending the lifetime of all methane currently in the atmosphere. 

Data for the annual increase in methane have been updated by NOAA. in 2024, there was a higher increase than in 2023, the 2024 increase was almost 10 parts per billion (ppb).   

The image below shows the annual methane increase data (red circles), with two trends added. A quadratic trend (blue) is based on all available data (1894 through 2024), while a quintic trend (pink) is based on 2017 through 2024 data. The pink trend warns about a huge increase in methane, which could eventuate due to eruptions of seafloor methane.

Below are warnings from earlier posts. 
[ from earlier post, also note the recent discussion on monthly methane ]
[ from earlier post ]
Also noteworthy is this analysis by Andrew Glikson and work by Peter Wadhams et al. 

In the video below, methane emissions are discussed by Peter Wadhams, Paul Beckwith, Peter Carter and Herb Simmens
 

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have been around 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below. 

Methane is more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Methane also has indirect effects, such as ground-level ozone and stratospheric water vapor, while methane partly turns into carbon dioxide. Importantly, the warming potential of a pulse of methane will decrease over time, given methane's relatively short lifetime. 

Accordingly, there are different ways to calculate methane's carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). Also important is whether a specific concentration of methane is used (in ppb) or the weight is used of a pulse of methane. In each of these cases, different multipliers can be used to calculate methane's CO₂e.

When using a multiplier of 200, a methane concentration of 1960 ppb would translate into 392 ppm of CO₂e. As mentioned above, a daily CO₂ concentration of 431.25 ppm was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on May 10, 2025. So, when adding up these two, the joint CO₂e would be 823.25 ppm CO₂e, i.e. just 376.75 ppm short of the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm). This joint total doesn't yet include contributions of nitrous oxide and other drivers, so the situation is even more dire. Moreover, concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing and they may increase even more dramatically soon.

So, what multiplier is best used when calculating methane's CO₂e? The IPCC already uses a slightly higher GWP for methane emissions from fossil fuel fugitive emission sources than for other methane emissions. So, the idea of using different multipliers in different scenarios is not new. 

One multiplier could be used that does include cooling aerosols and another one that doesn't. Most carbon dioxide results from burning coal and oil, which comes not only with high CO₂ emissions, but also with co-emissions of cooling aerosols. On the other hand, there are little or no cooling aerosols co-emitted with methane emissions. Therefore, inclusion of cooling aerosols could result in a higher multiplier to be used when translating concentrations of methane into CO₂e, compared to carbon dioxide.

[ warming contributions, from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

[ warming responsibility by sector ]
To illustrate this point, the above image shows contributions to warming from 2010 to 2019, using IPCC AR6 data. If masking (cooling) would be included in the image by subtracting cooling by sulfates from CO₂, then the contribution of CO₂ would be proportionally lower, while the contribution of methane would be proportionally higher than what the image shows. 

The image on the right is from a recent analysis by Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop.    

Given the dire outlook and given methane's higher potency as a greenhouse gas, it makes most sense to seek urgent and dramatic reductions in methane and such action should not be allowed to be sabotaged by those who propose a low multiplier when calculating methane's CO₂e.

IPCC

Meanwhile, the IPCC remains silent. No updates or special reports on topics such as acceleration of the temperature rise. Instead, the IPCC keeps persisting in downplaying the potential for such dangerous developments (in terms of the severity, probability, ubiquity and imminence of their impact), in efforts to hide the most effective climate action. The IPCC keeps pointing at less effective policies such as support for BECCS and biofuel, while continuing to make it look as if there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, as if polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as also discussed at this group.



Links

• University of Bremen - sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• NOAA - Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - Weekly Average Mauna Loa CO2

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Record high increase in carbon dioxide
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/04/record-high-increase-in-carbon-dioxide.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - 5 May 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - trends in methane
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4

• The methane time bomb - by Andrew Glikson (2018)

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• Increased transparency in accounting conventions could benefit climate policy - by Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop   











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Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Arctic sea ice August 2023

Arctic Ocean heating up

There are at least five mechanisms that cause the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, as described below. 

1. Direct Heat. Heat from sunlight directly reaches the surface, i.e. the sea ice or the water of the Arctic Ocean.

The August 8, 2023, image on the right, from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a 1-3 days forecast of maximum surface temperatures (2m). Heatwaves over land can extend over the Arctic Ocean. 

High levels of emissions and greenhouse gases over the Arctic increase the amount of heat that is reaching the water of the Arctic Ocean and the sea ice. 

The NASA satellite image below shows smoke from forest fires in Canada moving over the Beaufort Sea and over the sea ice on August 6, 2023. 
[ click on images to enlarge ]

A recent study highlights that forest fires can strongly contribute to the temperature rise. Smoke, soot and further aerosols settling on the sea ice also darken the surface, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed (feedback #9 on the feedbacks page). 

The image on the right, from a Copernicus news release dated August 3, 2023, shows the dramatic growth in emissions from fires in Canada up to end July 2023. 

The news release quotes Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service senior scientist, Mark Parrington, who comments: "As fire emissions from boreal regions typically peak at the end of July and early August, the total is still likely to continue rising for some more weeks."

The Climate Reanalyzer image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year of 5.64°C or 42.15°F on August 9, 2023. Earlier, a record temperature of 5.81°C or 42.46°F was reached (on July 27, 2023).

Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent half September, when temperatures in the Arctic fall below 0°C and water at the surface of the Arctic Ocean starts refreezing.


2. Heat from Rivers. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is another way the water is heating up and this is melting the sea ice from the side.

The August 10, 2023, image below, from nullschool.net, illustrates the added impact of heat that is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, with sea surface temperatures as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F recorded at a location where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (at the green circle, where the green arrow is pointing at).


On August 6, 2023, the sea surface was 14.5°C or 26.2°F hotter than in 1981-2011, at a nearby location where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.


The image on the right shows that on August 10, 2023, the sea surface temperature was 17.6°C or 63.7°F at a location where the Lena River in Siberia enters the Arctic Ocean, i.e. 14.2°C or 25.5°F hotter than it was in 1981-2011 (at green circle).

The Lena River flows into the Laptev Sea which is mostly less than 50 meters deep, making it relatively easy for surface heat to reach the seafloor. 

The NOAA image underneath on the right shows sea surface temperatures in the Bering Strait as high as 19.2°C or 66.56°F on August 8, 2023.

The image illustrates that the water can heat up strongly where hot water from rivers and run-off from rainwater enters the Bering Strait.

3. Ocean Heat. Yet another mechanism is heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean from other oceans, i.e. from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Sea ice underneath the sea surface is melting from below due to ocean heat. 

An earlier post discusses why we are currently facing record high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

The image below shows how the Gulf Stream is pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean, while sea surface temperatures show up as high as 33.1°C or 91.58°F on August 9, 2023. 


The Gulf Stream is an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as pictured below and discussed at this page. This ocean current is driven by the Coriolis force and by prevailing wind patterns.

[ from earlier post ]

This ocean current contributes to the stronger and accelerating rise in temperature in the Arctic (compared to the rest of the world), which in turn causes deformation of the Jet Stream that can at times cause strong winds that speed up this ocean current, as discussed in earlier post such as this 2017 one. 

[ from earlier post ]

4. Sea ice moving out. The Arctic Ocean is also heating up as sea ice is getting pushed into the Atlantic Ocean. Even the thickest sea ice can break up into pieces and move along with the flow of meltwater from glaciers, ocean currents and/or strong wind.

[ Click on images to enlarge ]
The animation below, created with NASA Worldview satellite images, shows the northern tip of Greenland at the top left of each frame. The green square on the image on the right indicates the area of the animation. It's around Prinsesse Thyra Island in Northeast Greenland National Park. 

This is where typically the thickest sea ice is located. The animation shows the sea ice breaking up and moving out of the Arctic Ocean. What is left of the pieces will eventually melt in the Atlantic Ocean. Pieces of sea ice that are pushed out of the Arctic Ocean reduce the latent heat buffer, as they can no longer consume heat in the Arctic Ocean through melting.  


5. Sea ice sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere

The sea ice used to reach its lowest extent approximately half September. With the change in seasons, air temperatures decrease and sea ice starts increasing in extent at the sea surface. The image below illustrates how, as the Arctic Ocean starts freezing over, less heat will from then on be able to escape to the atmosphere. Sealed off from the atmosphere by sea ice, greater mixing of heat in the water will occur down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in FAQ#21.

[ From the post September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record ]

In October, sea ice has stopped melting and is increasing in extent at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Also, as land around the Arctic Ocean freezes over, less fresh water will flow from rivers into the Arctic Ocean, while hot, salty water will continue to flow into the Arctic Ocean. As a result, the salt content of the Arctic Ocean increases, all the way down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, increasing the danger that ice in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor will melt, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape and enter the atmosphere.

[ Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006) ]
Warmer water reaching these sediments can penetrate them by traveling down cracks and fractures in the sediments, and reach the hydrates. The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., shows that hydrates can exist at the end of conduits in the sediment. Such conduits were formed when some of the methane did escape from such hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast and reach methane hydrates that keep methane in cages of ice. As heat reaches the ice cages, a temperature rise less than 1°C can suffice to destabilize such cages, resulting in a huge abrupt eruption, as the methane expands more than 160 times in volume.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
Further increasing the danger, this return of the sea ice results in less moisture evaporationg from the water, which together with the change of seasons results in lower hydroxyl levels at the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in turn resulting in less methane getting broken down in the atmosphere over the Arctic.

Feedbacks and further developments

More generally, the rapid temperature rise threatens to cause numerous feedbacks to accelerate and further developments to occur such as crossing of tipping points, with the danger that the temperature will keep rising.

In the video below, Peter Carter, Paul Beckwith and Dale Walkonen discuss the situation.


One such feedbacks is the formation and growth of a cold freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables large amounts of salty and relatively hot water to flow underneath this lid and underneath the remaining sea ice, to enter the Arctic Ocean, as discussed earlier here, as well as here and at the feedbacks page.


This further increases the danger of destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. 

Ominously, some very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below.
Conclusion

The situation is dire and the outlook is getting more grim every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan and as most recently discussed at Transforming Society.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - Outlook Forecast Maps

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Shortwave absorption by wildfire smoke dominated by dark brown carbon - by Rajan Chakrabarty et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01237-9
discussed at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160935394954679

• Feedbacks

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily 2-meter Air Temperature

• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Charts

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• Record high North Atlantic sea surface temperature

• NASA Worldview

• Copernicus news release - 2023 Canada wildfires emissions have already doubled previous annual record (August 3, 2023)
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/2023-canada-wildfires-emissions-have-already-doubled-previous-annual-record

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic





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Monday, February 28, 2022

What the IPCC impacts report is hiding

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Above image is adapted from content by IPCC AR6 WGII and Peter Carter, expert IPCC reviewer and director of the Climate Emergency Institute. 

The IPCC keeps hiding how much the temperature could already have risen and could rise over the next few years, the associated dangers, and the policies that could most effectively improve the situation. 



1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded
One of the first issues that springs to mind is the IPCC's use of 1850-1900 as a baseline, which isn't pre-industrial as the Paris Agreement called for.


Above image, adapted from a NASA image, shows a January 2022 temperature rise of 1.31°C versus 1885-1915. As the box underneath indicates, a further 0.1°C could be added for ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C for higher polar anomalies. When calculating the temperature rise from pre-industrial, a further 0.79°C could be added for the period from 3480 BC to 1900, resulting in a total temperature rise from pre-industrial to January 2022 of 2.3°C.


2. Hiding the potential rise to come

While a huge temperature rise has already unfolded, the rise is accelerating, as discussed at earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, an example from an earlier post. 


In other words, an even larger temperature rise threatens to unfold soon, i.e. this could happen over the course of at few years, as illustrated by the stacked bar next to the cartoon above and as discussed at the extinction page.


3. Hiding the largest dangers

The rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise.



What would be the impact of a 3°C, a 4°C, or a 5°C rise? 

At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, as habitat for humans (and many other species) will disappear. Such a rise will cause a rapid decline of the snow and ice cover around the globe, in turn making that less sunlight gets reflected back into space. Associated changes are discussed in more detail at this page and this page, and include that the jet stream will further get out of shape, resulting in more extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and firestorms. Changes to the jet stream will also contribute to a further strengthening of storms, which threatens to at times push large amounts of hot, salty water into the Arctic Ocean, triggering eruptions of more and more seafloor methane, as discussed in an earlier post.

[ from an earlier post  ]
From a 4°C rise, Earth will experience a moist-greenhouse scenario. As the temperature rise gains further momentum, runaway heating may well turn Earth into a lifeless planet, a danger that was discussed in this 2013 post, warning that, without anything stopping the rise, it will continue to eventually destroy the ozone layer and the ice caps, while the oceans would be evaporating into the atmosphere's upper stratosphere and eventually disappear into space.

At 5°C rise, most life on Earth will have gone extinct. A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). As the temperature keeps rising, chances are that all life on Earth will go extinct, as Earth would be left with no ozone layer to protect life from deadly UV-radiation. Furthermore, Earth would no longer have water, an essential building block of life. Soil moisture, groundwater and water in oceans would evaporate and eventually disappear into space, as discussed in an earlier post.

Much of the above was discussed earlier at Most Important Message Ever.

[ from the post When will we die? ]

A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity.


4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation

The IPCC creates a perception that pollution can continue for decades to come. The IPCC does so by downplaying the size of the temperature rise and the threat of a huge rise within years. The IPCC promotes the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Most importantly, the IPCC has once more failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that can best improve the situation, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future. 

The speed at which a huge temperature rise can unfold makes that many adaption efforts could be wasted or even counter-productive. A 2021 report by Neta Crawford estimates the budgetary costs and future obligations of the post-9/11 wars at about $8 trillion in 2021 dollars. Much of that money was spent on securing the supply and transport of fossil fuel. Governments spend $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm the environment, a study by Doug Koplow et al. finds. Globally, fossil fuel subsidies were $5.9 trillion in 2020 or about 6.8% of GDP and are expected to rise to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, a 2021 IMF report finds. 

Perverse subsidies are even higher when also including money that now goes into constructing transport infrastructure such as roads, highways, tunnels, bridges, railways, airports, etc. Redirecting such funding could enable more people to work and study from home with time to spare and gardens to grow their own food, instead of commuting by car over roads to offices, schools, etc.

[ from earlier post ]
Electric VTOL air taxis can replace a huge part of the traffic that now demands expensive infrastructure such as roads, railways including service stations, parking buildings and strips, bridges, tunnels, etc. Air taxis can facilitate a dramatic reduction in the need for traffic infrastructure, which also includes space now used for garages and parking.

If much of this traffic instead takes place by air taxis, then urban design can have more space for outdoor dining, parks, markets, tree-lined footpaths, bike-tracks, etc. 

Furthermore, drones could be used for transport and delivery of cargo, pharmaceuticals, etc. In many places, cities can become more compact and buildings can be put closer together, thus reducing overall cost and enabling people to reach destinations quicker, either by walking or cycling. Air taxis can bring people to many destinations fast, while people can also using online facilities to further reduce the need for transport and travel infrastructure.

In other places, the space now used for roads and parking could instead be used to create urban forests, to extend gardens and to create community gardens and markets where people can get locally-produced vegan-organic food such as fruit and vegetables.

Much additional infrastructure can also change, such as traffic lights and road signs, streetlights and the electricity grid. Supply of natural gas could be replaced by electric devices such as heat-pumps, induction-cookers and electric water-heaters. Organic waste can be pyrolysed with the resulting biochar added to the soil.

For more on the Urban Heat Island effect, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/airtaxis/posts/419568755612304


For more on biochar and pyrolysis, see:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar


Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• IPCC AR6 WGII - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?

• Human Extinction by 2022?

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4)
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Clouds feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Could Earth go the same way as Venus?
• Accelerating Methane Rise
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/accelerating-methane-rise.html

• Protecting Nature by Reforming Environmentally Harmful Subsidies: The Role of Business Prepared - by Doug Koplow and Ronald Steenblik (2022) 
https://www.earthtrack.net/sites/default/files/documents/EHS_Reform_Background_Report_fin.pdf

• The U.S. Budgetary Costs of the Post-9/11 Wars - by Neta Crawford (2021)
https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Costs%20of%20War_U.S.%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Post-9%2011%20Wars_9.1.21.pdf

• IMF - Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004

• Which policy can help EVs most?
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html




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