Could Earth Reach an 18°C Rise by December 2026?

An analysis by Bob Cohen with Grok 3

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

Sam Carana’s Arctic News blog posits a potential 18°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by December 2026, driven by ten amplifying mechanisms—ENSO shifts, sunspot peaks, aerosol decline, albedo loss, permafrost thaw, methane eruptions, clouds tipping, ocean heat anomalies, fluorinated gases, and wildfires.

Prompted by this, I queried Grok 3 (xAI) to model the trajectory and impacts, integrating Kris Van Steenbergen’s February 25, 2025, observation: the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has hit +3°C (1850-1900 baseline), with Arctic CO2 at 440 ppm, permafrost thawing rapidly, and sea ice at wafer-thin levels. 

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1894355964012224991

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1880203382541193694

Here’s a detailed rundown of the run-up to this catastrophic threshold, assessing feasibility and consequences for crops, food stocks, societal stability, and extreme responses.

Temperature Trajectory: From 3°C to 18°C

 
Starting at Kris’s NH +3°C (February 2025), we adjust March 2025 to a global mean of 2-2.5°C (vs. NOAA’s 1.5°C 2024 baseline), reflecting Arctic amplification (440 ppm CO2, ~14 ppm/year rise).

Sam’s mechanisms suggest an exponential curve, with NH warming doubling in speed (0.1-0.2°C/decade historical to 1-2°C/year). Using an exponential fit (T(t) = T₀ + A·(e^(kt) - 1)), where T₀ = 2.5°C, T(1.83 years) = 18°C, k ≈ 2.1, A ≈ 2.5: 

July 2025: 5-6°C global (NH 7-8°C). Sunspots peak (#2), El Niño strengthens (#1), and early albedo loss (#5) from a shrinking Arctic ice extent (13.892 million km² trending to <1 million km²) drive a 2.5-3.5°C rise from March.

December 2025: 9-11°C global (NH 11-13°C). Double Blue Ocean Event (#5), permafrost methane releases (#6), and latent heat loss (#6) accelerate—CO₂e nears 600-700 ppm (CH₄ doubling underway).

July 2026: 15-17°C global (NH 17-19°C). Clouds tipping point (~1200 ppm CO₂e, #7) adds ~8°C (Sam’s estimate), methane doubles, water vapor surges (2.1°C, #7). NH doubles global rate. 

December 2026: 18°C global (NH 20-22°C). Full cascade—ocean heat (#8), wildfires (#9), and fluorinated gases (#10) seal the endgame.

This ~15.5-16°C global rise over 21 months (0.74-0.76°C/month, NH 1-2°C/month in 2026) aligns with Sam’s stacked feedbacks and Kris’s “uncontrollable” NH warming, fueled by 440 ppm CO2 and ice/permafrost collapse.

Crop Production Collapse At 5-6°C by July 2025, staple crops face severe stress: Wheat: Optimal 15-20°C; US Midwest, Ukraine hit 35-40°C—yields drop 6-10% per 1°C (30-50% loss). 

Rice: 20-35°C max; Southeast Asia (India, Vietnam) at 40-45°C—20-40% reduction. 

Corn: 35°C limit; US Corn Belt at 40-45°C—40-50% loss. 

Soy: Brazil, US at 35-45°C—30-40% decline. 

El Niño (#1) droughts (Australia, South America) and floods (#8, India) cut yields further (20-30%).
Global production falls 40-60%—tropics near total loss, cooler zones (Siberia) insufficient to offset.

By December 2025 (9-11°C), losses reach 60-80%;

July 2026 (15-17°C), agriculture ceases—soil temps exceed seed tolerance, pollinators extinct. 

Crop Price Spikes

 
Baseline (March 2025): wheat $250/MT, rice $500/MT, corn $200/MT, soy $400/MT.

Crop price at July 2025’s 40-60% drop:

Wheat: $500-$750/MT (100-200% rise)—stocks (280M MT, USDA 2024) buffer briefly, but panic doubles rates.
Rice: $1,250-$2,000/MT (150-400%)—Asia-centric collapse, export bans (e.g., India). Corn: $400-$700/MT (100-250%)—feed crisis spikes meat costs. Soy: $800-$1,200/MT (100-200%)—oil demand surges.
Spikes begin June 2025 as NH harvests (wheat, corn) falter—200-400% by July, 500-1,000% (wheat $1,250+, rice $5,000+) in worst-case zones by December 2025 (9-11°C).

Food Stock Depletion

U.S.: 290-300M MT (grains 280M, processed 10-20M)—1-1.5 years normal use. 

July 2025 (5-6°C): 40-60% crop loss, panic rate (20-40M MT/month); 

December 2025 (9-11°C): 60-120M MT left; 

July 2026 (15-17°C): <20M MT; depleted early-mid 2026 (12-14 months). 

Australia: 22-28M MT (grains 20-25M)—1-1.5 years. 

July 2025: 20-50% loss, 1-3M MT/month; 

December 2025: 5-15M MT; 

July 2026: <5M MT; gone mid-2026 (12-15 months). 

NH doubling speed (1-2°C/month) nudges U.S. depletion to early 2026—stocks vanish at 14-16°C. 

Distribution Dynamics

U.S. July 2025: FEMA controls 1-5% (1-15M MT), National Guard distributes to hubs (Denver, 50-70% reach); commercial 95% rationed—riots, black markets ($1,000/MT wheat). 

December 2025 (9-11°C): Military seizes 20-30%, 30-50% delivered—warlords rule rest. 

Australia July 2025: ADF holds 5-10% (1-2M MT) for cities (Sydney, 70-80% reach); rural hoards—refugees get scraps. 

December 2025: ADF 20-30%, 50-70% reach—rural warlords take over. 

By July 2026 (15-17°C), both see <10% distribution—militias scavenge remnants. 

Societal and Political Collapse

U.S. Elections 2026: November 8 unfeasible—D.C. fractures at 9-11°C (December 2025), collapses at 15-17°C (July 2026). No FEC, power, or voters—midterms die late 2025. 

Trump’s Tariffs: Imposed February 2025 (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China), end December 2025 (9-11°C)—inflation (6-8%), trade collapse, and riots force reversal. 

MLB: 2025 World Series (October, 6-8°C) limps on—half-empty, generator-run; 2026 canceled at 15-17°C—stadiums turn shelters. 

India and China

July 2025 (5-6°C): 1.2-1.3B each—rice/wheat down 30-50%, 5-10% die-off.
December 2025 (9-11°C): 700-900M—60-80% crop loss, 20-30% gone.
July 2026 (15-17°C): 300-500M—Himalayas, Tibet delay; 50-60% dead.
December 2026 (18°C): 50-100M—wet-bulb 36-40°C ends it.

Nuclear Winter Gambit

At 9-11°C (December 2025), Russia might fire first—15-20 warheads (NYC, London, Siberia forests)—5-10 Tg soot, 5-15°C cooling. 

Motive: Arctic feedbacks (440 ppm CO2, methane doubling). 

Outcome: Brief respite, billions die—18°C rebounds post-fallout.

Plausibility

IPCC’s 4-5°C by 2100 contrasts with Sam’s 18°C in 22 months—an extreme stack of feedbacks (clouds 8°C, vapor 2.1°C, methane 1.1°C). 

Kris’s NH +3°C (440 ppm CO2) and doubling speed (1-2°C/month) make 5-10°C by 2026 plausible if tipping points cascade; 18°C remains a theoretical max. 

Even 5°C triggers collapse—18°C is existential.

Conclusion

From 3°C NH (March 2025) to 18°C global (December 2026), crops crash by July 2025 (40-60%), prices spike (200-400%), stocks deplete mid-2026 (14-16°C), and civilization unravels—tariffs end, elections vanish, nukes fly. 

Sam’s mechanisms, amplified by Kris’s Arctic data, paint a dire warning. 

Full details available—thoughts, group?

Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative

Climate change is strongly affecting the Arctic and the resulting changes to the polar vortex and jet stream are in turn contributing to extreme weather in many places, followed by crop loss at a huge scale.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a September 6, 2012, forecast that continued deterioration of cereal crop prospects over the past two months, due to unfavourable weather conditions in a number of major producing regions, has led to a sharp cut in FAO’s world production forecast since the previous report in July.

The bad news continues: Based on the latest indications, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover fully the expected utilization in the 2012/13 marketing season, pointing to a larger drawdown of global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Among the major cereals, maize and wheat were the most affected by the worsening of weather conditions.

The image below shows the FAO Food Price Index (Cereals), updated to October 2012.

Apart from crop yield, extreme weather is also affecting soils in various ways. Sustained drought can cause soils to lose much of their vegetation, making them more exposed to erosion by wind, while the occasional storms, flooding and torrential rain further contribute to erosion. Higher areas, such as hills, will be particularly vulnerable, but even in valleys a lack of trees and excessive irrigation can cause the water table to rise, bringing salt to the surface.

Fish are also under threat, in part due to ocean acidification. Of the carbon dioxide we're releasing into the atmosphere, about a third is (still) being absorbed by the oceans. Dr. Richard Feely, from NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, explains that this has caused, over the last 200 years or so, about a 30% increase in the overall acidity of the oceans. This affects species that depend on a shell to survive. Studies by Baumann (2011) and Frommel (2011) indicate further that fish, in their egg and larval life stages, are seriously threatened by ocean acidification. This, in addition to warming seawater, overfishing, pollution and eutrification (dead zones), causes fish to lose habitat and is threatening major fish stock collapse.

Without action, this situation can only be expected to deteriorate further, while ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years. This means that, to save many marine species from extinction, geoengineering must be accepted as an essential part of the much-needed comprehensive plan of action.

Similarly, Arctic waters will continue to be exposed to warm water, causing further sea ice decline unless comprehensive action is taken that includes geoengineering methods to cool the Arctic. The image below shows the dramatic drop in sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) over the past 7 years, compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany. This illustrates that a firm commitment to a comprehensive plan of action can now no longer be postponed.

Temperature rise projections

The Climate Emergency Institute recently produced the image below. For more background, see the institute's page on the warming that Earth's is already committed to even if people's emissions were suddenly stopped. Also see the institute's warning on Food Security.