Arctic News: rise

Showing posts with label rise. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Extreme weather gets more extreme

More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph, says a BBC report of August 4, 2025.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As the temperature rise hits the Arctic harder than elsewhere in the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, which slows down the jet stream and distorts its path, making the jet stream meander more.

As the jet stream slows down, distortion can cause parts of the jet stream at times to move faster. In the above image on the left, the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet stream have merged over the Atlantic Ocean, reaching speeds as high as 302 km/h or 187 mph over the North Sea on August 5, 2025 01:00 UTC (green circle on above image left).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Furthermore, as temperatures rise and oceans heat up, the increased energy can at times strongly speed up ocean currents and winds.

The above image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.7°C or 90.0°F, recorded south of Florida on August 3, 2025 12:00 UTC (at the green circle). The above image also shows the path of the Jet Stream (right) matching the path of the Gulf Stream (left), thus strengthening and speeding up the Gulf Stream and its extension North over the Atlantic Ocean and to the Arctic Ocean.

The image on the right shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C on August 5, 2025, and the image on the right underneath illustrates the huge amounts of heat that have accumulated in the ocean, showing equivalent ocean heat content on August 5, 2025.

Heat is moving up along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to accelerate loss of sea ice and permafrost.

As temperatures rise, sea ice decline accelerates due to feedbacks such as the albedo feedback, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected by sea ice means more heat gets absorbed, further accelerating the temperature rise.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 7, 2025.

As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice extent was 21.89 million km² on August 5, 2025, a deviation of -4.71σ.

There are also tipping points, e.g. as sea ice volume declines over the years, the buffer disappears that previously consumed huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of melting the ice.

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on August 6, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

[ NOAA ENSO outlook ]

What makes the dire state of the sea ice even more significant is that there currently are no El Niño conditions. As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026.

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, two developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks.

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

The image below shows that the degree to which sulfate aerosols scatter and absorb light was as high as 4.500 τ on August 5, 2025, at 04:00 UTC at the location marked by the green circle.

[ sulfates contribute to the aerosol masking effect ]

The aerosol masking effect may be stronger than the IPCC's estimate, which would mean that the total warming due to people-caused emissions + feedbacks is higher. A 2022 study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds. Once released in the upper troposphere, ammonia can form particles with nitric acid, which is abundantly produced by lightning. As described in an earlier post, more burning of biomass and more extreme weather events such as forest fires and lightning can come with huge releases of gases and aerosols. Another earlier post shows how forest fires can come with high releases of sulfur dioxide, raising suspicions that forest fires can revolatilize sulfur emitted over decades from coal-fired power plants and settled on forest soil.

Sadly, the IPCC keeps downplaying the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn people about a near-future in which temperatures could rise strongly due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph - BBC August 4, 2025

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c9vdm9v4349t

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163059070999679

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - The Jet Stream

https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet-stream

• University of Miami - Rosenstiel School - North Atlantic OHC

https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/index.php

• Synergistic HNO3 H2SO4 NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation - by Mingyi Wang et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04605-4
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160005189729679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Will humans go extinct soon?

The image below shows the June 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, using ERA5 data.

[ June 2025 temperature anomaly, click on images to enlarge ]

[ from earlier post, click to enlarge ]

The above image shows relatively low anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, with a relatively cool area persisting in the North Atlantic, south of Greenland. This appears to reflect heavy melting, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and strong evaporation followed by more rainfall further down the track of the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The above image also shows high anomalies over parts of Antarctica and Antarctic sea ice. This appears to reflect changes to the Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC).

Rising temperatures result in a loss of carbon storage, concludes a recent study led by Thomas Werner into marine heatwaves.

[ marine heatwave in North Pacific ]

The image on the right shows that the sea surface temperature was as much as 7.5°C (13.4°F) higher than 1981-2011 on July 16, 2025, 12:00 UTC, at the location marked by the green circle, reflecting a strong marine heatwave in the North Pacific. The image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa).

[ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ]

Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, our global ocean has absorbed 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades due to increasing greenhouse gases, and the top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere, as described by a NASA post.

A small reduction in the 90% uptake of heat by oceans could result in a huge rise in the global air temperature, and studies warn about changes that are occurring in the AMOC and SMOC, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Such feedbacks could strike hard very rapidly, i.e. as fast feedbacks.

The IPCC (AR6 WG1 SPM page 11) uses an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3°C, but James Hansen says fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is 4.8°C and equilibrium global warming for today’s amount of greenhouse gases (4.1 W/m²) is 10°C, which includes a 2°C rise that would eventuate by the falling away of the aerosols that currently mask the temperature rise.

A 2024 study led by Judd finds that climate sensitivity has historically been about 8°C.

[ Temperature rise vs 1901-2000 (ClimateReanalyzer) and vs 1850-1900 (IPCC, inset left) ]

The IPCC appears to be downplaying the temperature rise in multiple ways, including by using linear trends, a late baseline and a low climate sensitivity, to give the false impression that polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come.

The above images illustrate what the world would look like under a CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario by February 2100, compared to 1891-1910. Obviously, such a rise would devastate sea ice and permafrost, triggering and accelerating numerous feedbacks, resulting in widespread forest fires and releases of greenhouse gases.

The 36-month running average for albedo (reflectivity) for May 2025 is down to a record low of 28.711%, as illustrated by the above Eliot Jacobson image.

The 36-month running mean for the Earth energy imbalance grew in May 2025 to 11.36 Hiroshimas per second. That's roughly 980,000 Hiroshimas per day in planetary warming, adds Eliot Jacobson.

As said, the IPCC keeps downplaying the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn people about a near-future in which temperatures could rise strongly due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

[ NOAA ENSO outlook ]

The updated ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line, image on the right, adapted from NOAA) favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026.

The image below illustrates the outlook of borderline La Niña for the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026. On July 29, 2025, the average temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific that is indicative for El Niño development (inset), had fallen to 26.7°C, an anomaly of -0.35°C from 1991-2020.

The current ENSO conditions make it even more significant that on July 14, 2025, the global temperature was 16.86°C, i.e. higher than the temperature was in 2023 or 2024 on this day, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The earlier image below shows a preliminary 16.85°C that was later upgraded to 16.86°C (final). The point is that this is a record high for that day and 0.3°C below the highest daily temperature on record (17.16°C) that was reached on July 22, 2024 (image adapted from Copernicus).

The image below shows monthly temperature anomalies through June 2025, based on ERA5 anomalies vs 1951-1980 from Jan 2014-June 2025 (red circles).

In the above image, data are adjusted by 1°C to reflect a pre-industrial base (black circles). Cubic trends are added to show that 3°C could be crossed late 2028 (red) or early 2027 (black).

The image below shows surface air temperature anomalies April 1, 2023, through July 14, 2025 (final), with a red trend added that warns about a potentially huge temperature rise later in 2025.

Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are on the rise again. The image below shows the global sea surface temperature through July 20, 2025 (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E).

How much could temperatures rise? The image below is a combination image. The top image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2022. The bottom image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2023. The trend in the bottom image shows an even steeper rise than the trend in the top image. This shows that a polynomial trend can sometimes be a good indicator of the rise to come.

The current ENSO conditions also make it even more significant that the global sea ice area anomaly was 2.56 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on July 30, 2025, a standard deviation of -4.33σ from 1981-2010.

Global sea ice extent was 21.92 million km² on July 31, 2025, a deviation of -4.88σ, as illustrated by the image below.

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on August 3, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 3, 2025.

Seafloor methane

As the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean rises, more ocean heat can penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which can destabilize methane hydrates contained in these sediments and cause eruptions of huge amounts of methane from the hydrates and from free gas kept underneath these hydrates.

The image below shows that methane concentrations as high as 2535 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded at a pressure level of 695.1 mb by the NOAA 20 satellite on July 30, 2025 AM. High concentrations of methane show up at latitudes higher than 30°N.

The image below shows hourly methane measurements taken at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

The image below repeats the IPCC's response, or rather its failure to respond.

A 3°C rise constitutes an important threshold, since humans will likely go extinct with such a rise. As illustrated by the image below, we may already be more than 2°C above pre-industrial and face a potentially huge temperature rise over the next few years.

[ from the post When will humans go extinct? ]

[ from: When Will We Die? ]

Recent research led by David Fastivich finds that, historically, vegetation responded at timescales from hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but not at timescales shorter than about 150 years. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt - far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapidly warming world.

Note that vegetation depends on the presence of a lot of things including healthy soil, microbes, moisture, nutrients and habitat.

A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). Humans, who depend on a lot of other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C, as discussed in the earlier post When Will We Die?

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IPCC AR6 WG1 Figure 4.35 | Comparison of RCPs and SSPs
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/figures/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Figure_4_35.png
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-4/figure-4-35

• Saltier water, less sea ice
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/saltier-water-less-sea-ice.html

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Marine heatwaves as hot spots of climate change and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services - by Thomas Wernberg et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s44358-025-00058-5

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162992131044679

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NASA - Ocean warming (December 2024)
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/?intent=121

• Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025? (update June 2025)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/06/arctic-blue-ocean-event-2025-update-June-2025.html

• A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature - by Emily Judd et al. (2024)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161741588279679

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al.
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161110558744679

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• When will humans go extinct?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html

• Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales - by David Fastovich et al. (2025)

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700

discussed on Facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162972980774679

• Danish Meteorological Institute - sea ice thickness and volume

https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NOAA - satellite methane measurements
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• NOAA - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/index.php

• When Will We Die?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Paris Agreement thresholds crossed (update May 2025)

High temperatures persist

In the image below, created with NASA data, the decade from 1904 through 1913 is used as a custom base, illustrating that the temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 22 months (July 2023 through April 2025), and even longer when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend (two-year Lowess Smoothing) that is pointing at 2°C above this base (1904-1913) getting crossed in the course of 2026.

[ trend points at 2°C above 1904-1913 getting crossed in 2026 ]

The temperature rise on land looks even more threatening, as illustrated by the image below.

The above image shows land only monthly temperature anomalies from 1880-1920, with the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) showing an acceleration in April 2022. If extended, the red line points at crossing 3°C in the course of 2026. Humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

An earlier analysis mentions that, when using 1750 as a base, this could add 0.3°C to the historic rise. The analysis adds that when using an even earlier base, even more could be added to the historic temperature rise.

Those who seek to delay or sabotage climate action typically call for use of a late base, in efforts to minimize the historic temperature rise. Using an earlier base can mean that temperatures are already higher than the thresholds that politicians at the adoption of the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed, and it can also imply that the temperature rise is accelerating faster and further, due to stronger feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere and disappearance of lower clouds, all of which would constitute a stronger call for climate action.

The image below illustrates that air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have been very high over the past few months, at times reaching record high temperatures for the time of year, e.g. the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 10.08°C on May 14, 2025, the highest temperature on record for that day.

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

These record high temperatures are the more significant as they were reached under ENSO-neutral conditions. On May 24, 2025, the sea surface temperature was 27.51°C, 0.35°C below 1991-2020, in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño, as illustrated by the image below. The Niño 3.4 anomaly is now lower than it has been for each day in March 2025, when La Niña conditions dominated.

The ENSO outlook below is dated May 8, 2025. It shows that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of 2025, edging on La Niña conditions.

The ENSO outlook is dated May 18, 2025.

As said, to see such high temperatures under ENSO-neutral conditions is significant, it indicates that feedbacks are stronger than many models have anticipated, which implies that feedbacks will continue to grow stronger, given the rapid temperature rise over the past few years (black trend). A new El Niño may develop soon, potentially in April 2026, as the red trend in the image below warns about. The result could be a huge rise in temperature over the course of 2026 (red trend).

As said, different bases can be used, e.g. in the above images anomalies are calculated versus bases such as 1904-1913, 1880-1920, 1991-2020 and 1901-2000. None of them is pre-industrial. So, what would the temperature anomaly look like when a genuinely pre-industrial base was used?

The image below, from an earlier post, uses NASA monthly data through March 2023. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

The image below is an update, the same adjustments are made to data through April 2025.

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above images is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]

The images show that, when adjusting the data and using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature rise may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged shouldn't and wouldn't be crossed.

IPCC keeps downplaying the danger

The IPCC keeps downplaying the danger in many ways. One way the IPCC does this is by selecting a base that minimizes the temperature rise and then to keep making the claim that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold. The above image, from an April 2024 post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (a six-months Lowess smoothing trend) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then. Minimizing the temperature rise will also minimize feedbacks that come with the temperature rise, such as a rise in water vapor and loss of lower clouds, which are self-amplifying feedbacks that further accelerate the temperature rise. In other words, by minimizing the historic temperature rise, the IPCC also seeks to minimize the rise to come.

[ from a 2014 post, click on images to enlarge ]

An additional way used by the IPCC to downplay the danger is to suggest there was a "carbon budget", as if there was an amount of carbon to be divided among polluters that could continue to be consumed for decades to come.

The image on the right, from a 2014 post, points at the fallacy and deceit that comes with a carbon budget, carbon credits, offsets and net-zero emission targets that would, according to the IPCC, accomplish and maintain a "balance" between sources and sinks.

Instead, comprehensive and effective action is needed on multiple lines of action, simultaneously yet separately.

Indeed, action is needed to reduce concentrations of carbon both in oceans and in the atmosphere, while on land, the soil carbon content needs to increase, which can best be achieved by methods such as pyrolysis of biowaste and adding the resulting biochar to the soil, to reduce emissions, reduce fire hazards, sequester carbon, support the presence of moisture & nutrients in the soil and thus support the health & growth of vegetation, as discussed at the Climate Plan group and the biochar group.

The IPCC has failed on at least three points:
1. failed to warn about the historic temperature rise and associated larger feedbacks

2. failed to warn about mechanisms that could cause further acceleration of temperature rise soon

3. failed to point at the best ways to combat climate change.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]

The above image illustrates how feedbacks and crossing of tipping points can cause the temperature of the atmosphere to keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions, due to shrinking heat sinks (e.g. sea ice thickness loss and oceans taking up less heat).

The IPCC failed to warn about Antarctic sea ice decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in an earlier post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

A 2024 study led by Norman Loeb finds that large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing absorbed solar radiation trends in the northern hemisphere.

Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can cause more heat to accumulate at the ocean surface. Higher sea surface temperatures also come with greater stratification (image below, from earlier post).

Stratification and further changes in oceans and in wind patterns can cause a freshwater lid to form on top of the ocean surface, enabling more hot & salty water to flow underneath this lid (feedback #28), contributing to calving of glaciers and destabilization of sediments at the seafloor.

Increases in water vapor in the atmosphere, loss of sea ice and loss of lower clouds are three self-amplifying feedbacks, i.e. as temperatures rise, such feedbacks will push temperature up even further and due to their self-amplification, the temperature rise will accelerate.

Sea ice loss

One feedback of high temperatures and high concentrations of greenhouse gases is loss of sea ice. Polar amplification of the temperature rise is hitting the Arctic hard, and is also causing dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice. Global sea ice area has been very low for the past few years, as illustrated by the image below. This has caused a lot of sunlight that was previously reflected back into space, to instead get absorbed by the sea surface. On May 24, 2025, global sea ice area was 17.75 million km², lowest on record for the day.

The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, shows that Arctic sea ice volume on May 29, 2025, was at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for more than a year.

Sea ice is disappearing over large parts of the Arctic Ocean. The image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows sea ice concentration on May 29, 2025.

The screenshot below, from an earlier post, further illustrates the dangers that come with sea ice loss. Eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is one of the most terrifying dangers.

As the image below illustrates, some of the thickest sea ice disappears from the Arctic Ocean as it gets broken up by sea currents and the pieces get moved out along the edges of Greenland. The image shows how, on May 27, 2025, the sea ice gets broken up just north of Greenland, due to ocean currents that will also move the pieces to the south, alongside the edges of Greenland, toward the North Atlantic.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.