Arctic News: rise

Showing posts with label rise. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Sea ice alert

Sea ice

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows Arctic sea ice extent from November 5 to December 24, a period when Arctic sea ice is growing in extent. The red line shows 2024 sea ice extent through November 23, 2024. Dots mark Arctic sea ice extent on November 23 for the respective year. On November 23, Arctic sea ice extent was lower only in 2016, which is worrying, since El Niño conditions were dominant in 2016, whereas La Niña conditions are now dominant.

The current La Niña is predicted to be weak and short-lived, as illustrated by the image below, from NOAA.

The image below shows NOAA monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño through October 2024.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent during the months September and October, highlighting extent in 2023 and 2024, as compared to extent averages in previous decades.

As illustrated by the above image, Antarctic sea ice extent in September and October 2023 & 2024 was much lower than in previous decades, a huge difference that occurred during a period when little or no sunlight was reaching Antarctic sea ice. On November 9, 2024, Antarctic sea ice extent was 14.99 million km², a record low for the time of year.

Global sea ice typically reaches its annual maximum extent around this time of year, as Arctic sea ice expands in extent. On November 9, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.34 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below the 24.15 million km² on November 9, 2023.

Higher ocean heat in combination with higher air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are two drivers behind the current slow growth in Arctic sea ice extent, which is in turn keeping global sea ice extent low.

[ from earlier post ]

Record low Arctic sea ice extent of 3.387 million km² was reached on September 17, 2012 (image below left).

The fact that this has remained the record low for more than a dozen years may be caused by slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) resulting in less ocean heat reaching the highest latitudes North, while more ocean heat instead is accumulating in the North Atlantic.

At the same time, rising ocean heat has caused a steady decrease in the volume of Arctic sea ice, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The danger is that as more heat accumulates in the North Atlantic, some of it can get abruptly pushed into the Arctic Ocean along the path of the Gulf Stream due to ever stronger hurricanes and formation of a freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic, resulting in more ocean heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilizing sediments that contain hydrates holding huge amounts of methane, in turn resulting in huge amounts of methane abruptly entering the atmosphere.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice reached a record minimum extent of 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023 (above image right). The increasingly low Antarctic sea ice extent of the past few years may have been caused by slowing down of AMOC causing less vertical mixing in the Southern Ocean, resulting in more heat accumulating at the surface that melted more Antarctic sea ice, with numerous feedbacks reinforcing the sea ice decline.

Since the minimum extent of Antarctic sea ice is much lower than the minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic, it may well be that a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) will occur in the Southern Hemisphere, before occurring in the Northern Hemisphere.

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2025. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2025. A BOE occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2025 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

The compilation of four images by the University of Bremen below illustrates the decline in Antarctic sea ice thickness from August 27, 2024, to November 28, 2024.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event in early 2025 would have terrifying consequences; it would rapidly and dramatically drive up global temperatures and threaten to unleash a double Blue Ocean Event in 2025.

The image and the right and below illustrate the ocean heat that is accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean.

On November 30, 2024, the sea surface temperature of the US Atlantic was as high as 31.1°C.

On November 28, 2024, the sea surface temperature was 27.1°C in the Gulf of Mexico, 2.07°C higher than 1982-2010.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Historic rise: more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 for 16 consecutive months

The above image, created with NASA data through October 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for 16 consecutive months (from July 2023 through October 2024). The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.

How appropriate is the use of a 1903-1924 base? Using a different base can make a lot of difference. As illustrated by the image below, the temperature anomaly for February 2024 can be as high as 1.89°C when using a 1904-1911 base.

A recent study argues that existing estimates of ocean temperatures for the period 1900–1930 are too cold. When adjusting ocean data upward, the anomaly compared to this period would come down, so in order not to downplay the temperature rise, it's important to put this into perspective.

As the image below shows, differences between ocean and land data for the period 1880-1898 are even larger, which is important since the period 1880-1898 is part of the period that the IPCC has selected as pre-industrial base.

While adjusting ocean data for 1921-1943 makes sense, it is even more important to use the most appropriate base as pre-industrial and to adjust the temperature rise from pre-industrial accordingly. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies such as the above-mentioned 1.89°C for February 2024 will exceed 2°C, as discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The map on the right with October 2024 temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 based on NCEP data shows high polar anomalies.

Similarly, the map below with October 2024 temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 based on ERA5 data shows high polar anomalies.

The 1951-1980 base for the maps is NASA's default base, but neither 1951-1980 nor the above 1903-1924 is pre-industrial. As said, anomalies from a pre-industrial base are higher.

The rise to come

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus, the temperature in 2024 has been higher than it was in 2023 for most of the year. On November 23, 2024, the temperature was 13.86°C, the highest on record for the time of year.

The image below shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 from early 2023 through November 23, 2024. Trends added to the ERA5 data show that the anomaly has been rising for almost 18 consecutive months, i.e. since the start of El Niño (June 2023, pink shading), during ENSO-neutral conditions (from May 2024, blue shading) and into La Niña (from October 2024, also blue shading).

The black linear trend shows a huge rise. The red trend is closer in line with variability such as resulting from ENSO and sunspots. The red trend indicates very high anomalies and a steep further rise into 2025, in line with the next El Niño becoming dominant in the second half of 2025, coinciding with very high sunspots.

Self-amplifying feedbacks, crossing of tipping points and further developments (such as loss of the aerosol masking effect) can all contribute to further accelerate the temperature rise through 2026, resulting in a rise from pre-industrial of more than 10°C, while in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Jet Stream distortion

As a result of the narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, the Jet Stream gets distorted. The image below shows a distorted Jet Stream (250 hPa) over the North Atlantic on November 11, 2024.

Precipitation

The image below shows an atmospheric river stretched out over the North Atlantic from the Tropics to the Arctic with high rainfall over the North Atlantic and snowfall over Greenland on November 11, 2024.

Water vapor

The image below shows a forecast for November 12, 2024, with precipitable water anomalies at the high end of the scale over the Arctic Ocean.

Feedbacks

The image below illustrates how multiple feedbacks can interact and jointly contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise.

[ from earlier post ]

There are many feedbacks and other mechanisms active and they are interacting on top of driving up temperatures individually.

Albedo change is a feedback that can have a huge impact. The currently very low global sea ice extent is a self-reinforcing feedback, as it results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more heat getting absorbed by oceans.

Extra water vapor is another self-reinfocing feedback, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.

These are just some of the feedbacks that can contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise, as discussed in an earlier post.

Carbon dioxide keeps rising

The above image shows carbon dioxide on November 12, 2024 - forecast for 03 UTC by Copernicus. The graph at the bottom of the image shows monthly carbon dioxide exceeding 425 ppb in October 2024 at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, based on NOAA data with trend added.

The images on the right, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the total precipitation standardized anomaly over the past few years. The top image shows the anomaly in Brazil.

The image underneath on the right shows the anomaly in Africa. In many places, what were previously carbon sinks have turned into sources of carbon emissions.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Methane

Ominously, high methane peaks have been recorded recently. The image below shows - on the left - that methane reached a peak of 2616 parts per billion (ppb) at 481.5-489 mb on November 28, 2024 pm, with high methane levels recorded over the Arctic and also over Antarctica. The image below shows - on the right - that, on November 28, 2024 pm, high methane levels were present over the oceans at 988.6-1002.4 mb.

Where does the methane come from?

The image on the right shows methane at pressure levels from 988.6 to 1002.4 mb, which corresponds to near sea level, so no methane does show up on over land with higher elevation, e.g. Greenland, Antarctica, even Australia (lowest continent).

Methane is light and will rise up in the atmosphere, so more methane will typically accumulate at higher altitudes than at near sea level. Much of the methane that is visible at the higher altitude image (left) is also present at the low altitude image (right) and at relatively high concentrations, peaking at 2415 parts per billion (ppb).

Furthermore, on the image on the left with the 2616 ppb peak, relatively little extra magenta-colored methane shows up over continental areas where typically high concentrations are present, compared to the image on the right.

These points indicate that much of the high concentrations of methane could have originated from oceans and from hydrates in sediments that are getting destabilized by high temperature swings.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As mentioned above, ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments that contain hydrates holding huge amounts of methane, resulting in huge amounts of methane abruptly entering the atmosphere.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this earlier post. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• National Institute of Polar Research Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - 14 November 2024
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162003805269679

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202410/supplemental/page-4

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• University of Bremen - sea ice

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

also discussed on facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162009995269679

• NOAA - sea surface temperatures - Contoured Regional Images of Blended 5 km SST Analysis

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• NASA Gistemp

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations - by Sebastian Sippel et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08230-1

Sunday, September 22, 2024

High temperatures despite La Niña?

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperatures remain extremely high, even though La Niña conditions may already be present, as illustrated by the above image, showing sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) versus 1981-2011.

The image on the right shows the Northern Hemisphere (-90°,90°) with SSTA as high as 24.8°F (13.8°C) in Hudson Bay (green circle) on Sep. 22, 2024. There are only very few cold spots, while massive amounts of ocean heat are present in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

On September 26, 2024, the sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) was 20.97°C, a record high for the time of year and 0.83°C above the 1982-2010 average, as illustrated by the image below.

North Atlantic (0-60°N 0-80°W) sea surface temperature anomalies remained high and reached a record high for the time of year on September 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below (SSTA vs 1882-2011).

The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface reached a temperature of 24.97°C (76.95°F) on September 22, 2024, a record high for the time of year and 1.07°C (1.926°F) above 1991-2020 or 1.3°C (2.34°F) above 1981-2010. The image also shows a 0.23°C difference in anomalies when shifting the base by a decade, indicating that the anomaly would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industral base.

The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at a record high for the time of year on September 23, 2024.

La Niña conditions may already be present

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, as the above image shows. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while sunspots move toward a peak and while temperatures remain high due to Earth's high Energy Imbalance and due to feedbacks, as discussed in a recent post. The peak in sunspots in this cycle is expected to occur in July 2025, at which time Arctic sea ice may disappear, triggering further feedbacks, leading to a huge temperature rise by end 2026 that could drive humans into extinction.

The above image from Copernicus illustrates that, for many months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.

The above image illustrates that global daily mean near-surface (2m) air temperature anomalies vs 1991-2020 (Copernicus) have been above about 0.5°C for almost 16 consecutive months, i.e. since El Niño started (in June 2023, blue shade) and under ENSO-neutral conditions (starting May 2024). La Niña is expected to start October 2024 and the added trends point at a continued rise.

The danger of methane hydrates getting destabilized

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.6°C on September 21, 2024. The image also shows the Gulf Stream pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

This flow of ocean heat can be accelerated by storms that are amplified due to high sea surface temperatures, deformation of the Jet Stream and a freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic.

At the same time, Arctic sea ice starts expanding rapidly in extent at this time of year, effectively sealing off the Arctic Ocean and making it hard for heat to get transferred from the surface of the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.

As discussed in earlier posts, Arctic sea ice has become very thin, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic.

Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains the same. Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.

[ The Latent Heat Buffer ]

Ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, can no longer get consumed by melting of the sea ice once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

The danger is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow.

[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

Eruptions from hydrates occur at great force, since the methane expands 160 times in volume when it vaporizes, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column, which especially applies to the many areas where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldy
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202408/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Copernicus - pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Will we be alive in 2025, who will survive, 2025?

The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine pre-industrial base.

The image below featured in an earlier post and was created with an image from the NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are here.

The image below from Copernicus illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.

The image below, from an earlier post and created with an image from the NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing).

Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots expected to occur in July 2025.

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C.

This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.

Natural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial.

Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.

Such feedbacks include loss of sea ice and permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases. Temperature anomalies are high and Arctic sea ice volume is very low, as illustrated by the compilation of images below, adapted from nullschool, Climate Reanalyzer and the Danish Meteorological Institute.

Ominously, high methane concentrations (well over 2400 ppb) were recently recorded at the observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

Slowing down of ocean currents could cause less heat to move deep into the ocean and more heat to instead accumulate at the surface, while more water vapor would enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data.

[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]

The compilation image below, with forecasts for September 20, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and biomass-burning aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon. Formaldehyde and carbon monoxide cause hydroxyl depletion and thus extend methane's lifetime.

Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces.