Arctic News: carbon monoxide

Showing posts with label carbon monoxide. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Emissions are not falling

Temperature rise

For many years, alarms have been raised about the temperature rise. Forest fires and methane releases in the Arctic contribute strongly to the temperature rise and to the danger of the clouds tipping point getting crossed, as discussed in an earlier post.

On July 21, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.11°C, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.92°C higher than 1982-2010, the highest anomaly versus 1982-2010 on record. The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 21, 2026.

Ocean heat constitutes the primary cause of sea ice decline, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. In a publication issued July 13, 2026, NOAA announced El Niño to be present, adding that the 2026 El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year. The 2026 El Niño thus threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as well as loss of virtually all Antarctic sea ice in early 2027, as also illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomaly forecast below for January 2027, a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

[ image from earlier post ]

Clearly, politicians must take drastic action that includes action to increase resilience and action to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Sadly, it appears that politicians are not taking the necessary action and that - as a result - emissions are rising.

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]

Greenhouse gases rising

Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising since 1750, as illustrated by the image on the right. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have been rising rapidly, while methane has been rising even more rapidly.

More methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

The 2026 El Niño is strengthening and sea surface temperatures are already at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing massive eruptions of methane contained in those sediments in the form of methane hydrates and free gas held underneath these hydrates.

Concentrations of gases

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. While concentrations should be coming down at this time of year due to seasonal changes, recent concentrations are very high, with one recent flask reading exceeding 442 parts per million.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There is a huge spread in recent readings, which may reflect forest fires.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average methane concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average nitrous oxide concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska.

Sadly, the images indicate that concentrations of greenhouse gases are not falling, they are rising instead. Forest fires are striking across the globe, which contributes to forests turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources, as discussed in posts such as this one. Furthermore, forest fires come with huge releases of carbon monoxide that deplete hydroxyl, in turn extending the lifetime of methane, as discussed in an earlier post.

Fossil fuel subsidies and investments

Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are planning to extract more natural gas. The IEA estimates that around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal in 2026. Natural gas investment is projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade.

The IMF describes two different types of fossil fuel subsidies. Explicit subsidies (when the retail price is below a fuel’s supply cost) and implicit subsidies (when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax). External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily premature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion, accident, and road damage externalities associated with the use of road fuels.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• The 2026 El Niño

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-2026-el-nino.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (issued July 13, 2026)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IMF - Fossil Fuel Subsidies (update April 22, 2026)

https://www.imf.org/en/topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

• IEA - World Energy Investment report 2026

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2026/executive-summary (image)

https://www.iea.org/news/impacts-of-middle-east-conflict-set-to-reshape-energy-investment-plans-as-disruptions-put-focus-on-security (text)

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Friday, September 11, 2020

Forest fires cause high emissions in Oregon

The image below shows a forecast of very high carbon monoxide levels in Oregon, as high as 86,299 ppb on September 11, 2020, 21:00 UTC.

The map below shows the location of these peak levels at the red marker.

On September 12, 2020, a horrifying peak level of 126,728 ppb is forecast to occur at that same spot at 21:00 UTC.

As the image below shows, sulfur dioxide levels are forecast to be as high as 5056.4 µg/m³ on September 12, 2020, at 23:00 UTC.

On September 13, 2020, very high carbon dioxide levels are forecast to cover a huge area, with peak levels as high as 82,715 ppb at 07:00 UTC, as the image below shows.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Smoke Covers Much Of Siberia

Smoke covers much of Siberia, as shown by the NASA Worldview image dated July 25, 2019.

The enormous intensity of the fires is illustrated by the image below, showing carbon monoxide (CO) levels as high as 80,665 ppb on July 25, 2019.

The image below shows that, at that same spot on July 25, 2019, carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were as high as 1205 ppm.

The image below shows that aerosols from biomass burning were at the top end of the scale.

When soot from fires settles on snow and ice, it darkens the surface, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed (instead of reflected back into space, as was previously the case), thus further speeding up the melting.

The loss of sea ice north of Greenland is particularly worrying, since this is the area where once the thickest sea ice was present. The image below shows the situation on July 24, 2019.

The image below shows the sea ice disappearing north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island on July 25, 2019.

The huge recent fall in sea ice volume is illustrated by the graph below, by Wipneus.

The naval.mil animation below illustrates the rapid fall in sea ice thickness, showing 30-day period including seven forecasts up to August 1, 2019.

The combination image below shows sea ice thickness forecasts for July 25, 2019, and for August 1, 2019.

The video below, by Robin Westenra, further illustrates our predicament.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Monday, July 8, 2019

Alaska On Fire

Fires are raging over Alaska. The satellite image below shows the situation on July 8, 2019.

The satellite image below shows the situation on July 9, 2019.

The image below shows carbon monoxide levels as high as 43,443 ppb over Alaska on July 8, 2019.

Carbon dioxide levels were as high as 561 ppm over that same spot in Alaska on July 8, 2019. Carbon dioxide levels were as high as 888 ppm on July 10, 2019, as the image below shows.

The image below shows a forecast for July 10, 2019, with temperatures forecast to be as high as 35.5°C or 95.8°F.

What causes such extreme weather events to occur?

The Arctic has been heating up faster than the rest of the world, due to self-reinforcing feedback loops such as the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic, which results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more sunlight instead getting absorbed in the Arctic.

As the image on the right shows, sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea were as high as 19.8°C or 67.64°F on June 21, 2019.

As the image underneath shows, sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea were as high as 21.6°C or 70.88°F on July 15, 2019.

Warm water from rivers flowing into the Bering Strait have contributed to some of the high temperatures of the water near the coast of Alaska.

Furthermore, as the June 21, 2019, image below shows, sea surface temperature anomalies have also been high around Alaska further away from the coast.

Indeed, more than 90% of the extra energy caused by humans goes into oceans, and sea currents carry a lot of this extra heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

As a result, ocean temperatures have been high for some time around Alaska.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies around Alaska on June 21, 2019.

Another feedback is that, as the Arctic heats up faster than the rest of the world, the jet stream becomes more wavy, making it easier for cold air to flow out of the Arctic to the south and for warm air from the south to enter the Arctic. These changes to the jet stream also cause stronger storms to occur in the Arctic and more water vapor to enter the atmosphere. All this further contributes to more heating to occur in the Arctic and more extreme weather events.

Heatwaves also cause more forest fires to occur in Alaska, and these forest fires are causing large amounts of soot to get deposited on mountains and on sea ice, thus further blackening the surface. More generally, the Arctic is getting more deposits of soot and dust, as well as stronger growth of algae, moss and microbes, all further speeding up the demise of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies around Alaska on July 11, 2019, with an anomaly of 7.7°C or 13.8°F compared to 1981-2011 showing up north of Alaska in the Arctic Ocean. The light blue areas indicate sea surface that is colder, due to heavy melting of the sea ice in those areas.

The image below shows a deformed jet stream (forecast for July 9, 2019) that enables hot air from the south to move over Alaska.

from an earlier post (2014)

Heatwaves and forest fires are symptoms of the rapid heating that is taking place in the Arctic. Self-reinforcing feedback loops further accelerate heating in the Arctic and just one of them, seafloor methane, threatens to cause runaway heating.

Just the existing carbon dioxide and methane, plus seafloor methane releases, would suffice to trigger the clouds feedback tipping point to be crossed that by itself could push up global temperatures by 8°C, within a matter of years, as the image below shows.

As described on above image and in an earlier post, huge amounts of methane could be released from destabilizing hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Such releases could be triggered by strong winds causing an influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic ocean, as described in an earlier post and discussed in the 2017 video below.

Youtube video by RT America

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Links

• Extreme weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Can we weather the Danger Zone?

[ click on image to enlarge ]

As an earlier Arctic-news analysis shows, Earth may have long crossed the 1.5°C guardrail set at the Paris Agreement.

Earth may have already been in the Danger Zone since early 2014. This is shown by the image on the right associated with the analysis, which is based on NASA data that are adjusted to reflect a preindustrial baseline, air temperatures and Arctic temperatures.

As the added 3rd-order polynomial trend shows, the world may also be crossing the higher 2°C guardrail later this year, while temperatures threaten to keep rising dramatically beyond that point.

What is the threat?

As described at the Threat, much carbon is stored in large and vulnerable pools that have until now been kept stable by low temperatures. The threat is that rapid temperature rise will hit vulnerable carbon pools hard, making them release huge amounts of greenhouse gases, further contributing to the acceleration of the temperature rise.

Further release of greenhouse gases will obviously further speed up warming. In addition, there are further warming elements that could result in very rapid acceleration of the temperature rise, as discussed at the Extinction page.

The Danger Zone

Below are some images illustrating just how dire the situation is, illustrating how vulnerable carbon pools are getting hit exactly as feared they would be with a further rise in temperature.

On July 5, 2018, it was as hot as 33.5°C or 92.3°F on the coast of the Arctic Ocean in Siberia (at top green circle, at 72.50°N). Further inland, it was as hot as 34.2°C or 93.5°F (at bottom green circle, at 68.6°N).

The satellite image below shows smoke from fires over parts of Siberia hit strongly by heat waves.

The fires caused carbon monoxide levels as high as 20,309 ppb over Siberia on July 3, 2018.

Methane levels that day were as high as 2,809 ppb.

On July 4, 2018, forest fires near the Lena River cause smoke over the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea. CO (see inset) and CO₂ levels that day were as high as 45080 ppb and 724 ppm (at the green circle), as illustrated by the image below.

The Copernicus image below shows aerosol forecasts for July 4, 2018, 21:00 UTC, due to biomass burning.

Another Copernicus forecast shows high ozone levels over Siberia and the East Siberian Sea.

EPA 8-hour ozone standard is 70 ppb and here's a report on recent U.S. ozone levels. See Wikipedia for more on the strong local and immediate warming impact of ozone and how it also makes vegetation more vulnerable to fires.

The global 10-day forecast (GFS) below, run on July 3, 2018, with maximum 2 meter temperature, shows that things may get even worse over the coming week or more.

Could we move out of the Danger Zone?

What can be done to improve this dire situation?

One obvious line of action is to make more effort to reduce emissions that are causing warming. There's no doubt that this can be achieved and has numerous benefits, as described in an earlier post. Emission cuts can be achieved by implementing effective policies to facilitate changes in energy use, in diet and in land use and construction practices, etc.

One complication is that the necessary transition away from fossil fuel is unlikely to result in immediate falls in temperatures. This is the case because there will be less sulfur in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space. Furthermore, there could also be an increase in biomass burning, as discussed at the Aerosols page, while the full wrath of recent carbon dioxide emissions is yet to come. As said, the resulting rise in temperature threatens to trigger numerous feedbacks that could accelerate the temperature rise even further. For more on how much temperatures could rise, see the Extinction page.

While it's clear that - besides emission cuts - further action is necessary, such as removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and oceans, the prospect is that such removal will have to continue for decades and decades to come before it can bring greenhouse gases down to safer levels. To further combat warming, there are additional lines of action to be looked at, but as long as politicians remain reluctant to even consider pursuing efforts to reduce emissions, we can expect that the world will be in the Danger Zone for a long time to come.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

April 2018 Update

[ click on image to enlarge ]

On April 22nd, 2018, Arctic sea ice extent was only 13.552 million km², a record low for the time of year. In 1987, by comparison, sea ice extent wasn't below 13.574 million km² even on May 22nd.

Meanwhile, CO₂ (carbon dioxide) levels are rising. The image on the right shows that Mauna Loa's CO₂ hourly average level was above 413 ppm recently. The daily average CO₂ level reached 412.37 ppm on April 23, 2018.

Fires are raging near the Amur River in East Siberia, with associated high emissions, as illustrated by the images below.

Above image shows CO₂ levels reaching as high as 973 ppm on April 18, 2018. As the image below shows, carbon monoxide levels at that spot were as high as 43,240 ppb on April 18, 2018.