Arctic sea ice
A Blue Ocean Event could be declared when Arctic sea ice reaches or crosses a threshold of 1 million km² in extent.
On June 14, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 10.680 million km², a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The Arctic sea ice extent has been very low in the year to date, despite the dominance of La Niña conditions. The Arctic sea ice extent will continue to fall rapidly as the 2026 El Niño is strengthening. Forecasts indicate that this El Niño will be the strongest on record.
As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice area was 7.35 million km² on June 22, 2026 (black), lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.60σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice area in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño.
Another measure is Arctic sea ice volume. The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 26, 2026, as it has been for years.
The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) after the annual maximum volume was reached.
The image below, from an earlier post, shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³).
Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.
The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026.
In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³. With strong melting taking place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in September 2026.
The danger is also highlighted by the animation below that illustrates that with melting as strong as it was through September 2007, there will be virtually no Arctic sea ice volume left in September 2026.
The animation below, made with NASA images, shows the Arctic sea ice just north of the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through June 10, 2026. This is where some of the thickest Arctic sea ice is located. The animation illustrates that even the thickest sea ice can break up with the pieces getting moved by wind and ocean currents into the Atlantic Ocean where they will melt away.
The combination image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on June 4, 2026 (left) and on June 18, 2026 (right).
The 2026 El Niño
Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.
The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approach 4°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line).
The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4°C for part of the mean.
The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America), where a rise of more than 4.4°C (from -1.6°C in the top image to +2.848°C in the bottom image) occurred within six months through June 21, 2026.
The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and also features in an earlier post. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).
According to NOAA, there is a 97% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and 98% chance of El Niño in January–March 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will be very strong in November 2026-January 2027.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño (red), La Niña (blue) and neutral episodes (grey).
The image below shows that the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 21.33°C on June 22, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.15°C higher than 1979-2000. The image also shows that a temperature of 22.72°C was reached on August 1, 2023, the highest temperature on record and 1.43°C above 1979-2000. Furthermore, the image shows that a temperature of 22.39°C was reached on July 10, 2016. Both 2016 and 2023 were El Niño years. The inset shows the Northern Hemisphere temperature on June 21, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.
The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 21, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4°C for part of the mean.
According to NOAA, there is a 97% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and 98% chance of El Niño in January–March 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will be very strong in November 2026-January 2027.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño (red), La Niña (blue) and neutral episodes (grey).
The image below, from an earlier post, shows the June 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.
The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.
The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.
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| [ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ] |
Temperature
The image below shows that on June 19, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026, with the Niño3.4 region highlighted.
The June 19, 2026, sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.4°C, a jump of 3.65°C in a span of just over 5 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. SST were higher only during the super El Niño in November 2015, as marked on the right of the image.
The image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 19, 2026. The temperature of the sea surface was as much as 5.4°C or 6.9°F higher (at the green circle, off the coast of South America) than 1981-2011 on June 19, 2026.
The image below Illustrates that the Arctic temperature was 4.6°C on June 21, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 2.39°C higher than 1979-2000. Peaks reached in earlier years are also marked, for 2016 and for 2023, both El Niño years. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on June 21, 2026, with the Arctic highlighted.
The image below shows that the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 21.33°C on June 22, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.15°C higher than 1979-2000. The image also shows that a temperature of 22.72°C was reached on August 1, 2023, the highest temperature on record and 1.43°C above 1979-2000. Furthermore, the image shows that a temperature of 22.39°C was reached on July 10, 2016. Both 2016 and 2023 were El Niño years. The inset shows the Northern Hemisphere temperature on June 21, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.
The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that the world (60°S-60°N) sea surface temperature was 20.89°C on June 24, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 0.54°C higher than 1991-2020, while El Niño is strengthening.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
An earlier image, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, illustrates that on June 14, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (inset also shows anomalies on June 14, 2026) was 20.98°C, the highest temperature on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which also has marked the years 2023 and 2024, while the year 2025 is colored orange.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Despite La Niña conditions in early 2026, which suppressed temperatures, 2026 SST were close to the record high 2024 SST, when El Niño conditions were present. Meanwhile, 2026 SST have reached the highest temperatures on record for this time of year.
On land in the Northern Hemisphere (where most people live), the average temperature departure from 1901-2000 will rise dramatically with strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA plot below.
Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically in the course of 2026 for a number of reasons including acceleration of the temperature rise over the years (more than 1°C rise from 2013 as illustrated by the green trend in the above image) and rising strength of the 2026 El Niño.
The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.
This additional radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m² is about as much as the change in radiative forcing caused by all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019, according to IPCC AR6 figures (image right).
The danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss is further highlighted by the image below. The image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a 7-day change in sea surface temperature anomalies that is hitting Antarctic sea ice hard.
High sea surface anomalies around Antarctica and thinning of Antarctic sea ice are not only due to the strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, but also due to a number of feedbacks that are not only strengthening but that are also amplifying the impact of each other, including:
• loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer,
• acceleration of the global temperature rise,
The combination image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic on June 11, 2026 (left) and on June 16, 2026 (right). The images show many areas with water temperatures high enough for no sea ice to be present. The green circle on the right marks an area where the sea surface temperature is -1.6°C.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The combination image below shows, on the left, temperatures above 0°C forecast over much of the Arctic Ocean including the North Pole for June 17, 2026, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer on the left, and on the right sea ice concentration on June 16, 2026, adapted from NSIDC.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
On land in the Northern Hemisphere (where most people live), the average temperature departure from 1901-2000 will rise dramatically with strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA plot below.
Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically in the course of 2026 for a number of reasons including acceleration of the temperature rise over the years (more than 1°C rise from 2013 as illustrated by the green trend in the above image) and rising strength of the 2026 El Niño.
The image below should act as a warning, illustrating the danger that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperatures on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026 that could cross the 3°C threshold.
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| [ from earlier post ] |
The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a temperature forecast for January 2027, with high temperature anomalies showing up all over the Arctic Ocean and over areas where currently sea ice is present around Antarctica. This indicates that there will be dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice.
The images below show forecasts for the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from December 2026 through March 2027, further confirming indications that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss.
SSTA December 2026
SSTA January 2027
SSTA February 2027
SSTA March 2027
Antarctica
The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.
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| [ image from earlier post ] |
The red color on the above image shows an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², which is primarily the result of loss of Antarctic sea ice.
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Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.
Loss of Antaratic sea ice causes albedo loss, which can dramatically increase sea surface temperatures of the Southern Ocean. The image below is created with Southern Hemisphere January 2001 through May 2026 NOAA data with a trend added to highlight the danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and subsequent Antarctic sea ice loss.
High sea surface anomalies around Antarctica and thinning of Antarctic sea ice are not only due to the strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, but also due to a number of feedbacks that are not only strengthening but that are also amplifying the impact of each other, including:
• loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer,
• acceleration of the global temperature rise,
• stronger evaporation as temperatures rise,
• more water vapor as temperatures rise,
• stronger wind as temperatures rise, and
• rising salt content of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean. The mechanism behind the rise in salinity is discussed below.
Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).
A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.
The image below, from a 2025 study led by Wei Wang, shows that, while Antarctic sea ice has decreased over the past few years, the Antarctic ice sheet has gained mass recently.
Links
• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026
• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
• The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks - by Robert Massom et al.
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/3271/2026
• European Union, Copernicus Marine Service Data
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD045296
• rising salt content of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean. The mechanism behind the rise in salinity is discussed below.
A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.
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| [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ] |
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).
A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.
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| [ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ] |
An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.
The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.
The post warns that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.
The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.
The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.
The image below, from a 2025 study led by Wei Wang, shows that, while Antarctic sea ice has decreased over the past few years, the Antarctic ice sheet has gained mass recently.
Driven by extratropical cyclones, strong winds can transport heat and moisture from the warmer Southern Ocean deep into the interior of Antarctica, where the water vapor condenses to fuel heavy snowfall events, as warned about in studies such as a 2025 study led by Jonathan Wille and a 2026 study led by Kyohei Yamada and as illustrated by the combination image below showing a forecast for June 2, 2026, for Antartica of temperature anomalies (left) and wind speed (right).
Ominously, the image below shows a relative humidity (RH) of 100% at the location marked by the green circle at 70 hPa over Antarctica on June 18, 2026.
This 70 hPa is a pressure level corresponding with an altitude in the lower stratosphere. RH shows the capacity of the atmosphere to hold water vapor. Below 0°C and at 100% RH, water vapor starts turning into ice crystals that can fall down as snow.
The image below, also adapted from nullschool.net, shows a relative humidity of 100% on June 18, 2026, at the surface at the location marked by the green circle.
The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows snowfall over Antarctica. The image is a precipitation forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z.
The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org, shows precipitable water standard deviation anomalies over Antarctica. The image is a forecast for July 3, 2026 06Z.
Conclusion
The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
• NOAA - Climate at a Glance - Time Series
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
• The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks - by Robert Massom et al.
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/3271/2026
also discussed on facebook at:
• University of Bremen - data browser
• Copernicus
• nullschool.net - relative humidity
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164364227369679
• Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land - by Wei Wang et al. (2025)
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164364227369679
• Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land - by Wei Wang et al. (2025)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
News release at:
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1080537
• Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica - by Jonathan Wille et al. (2025)
• Interannual Variations of Precipitation Events at Dome Fuji Station, Antarctica - by Kyohei Yamada et al. (2026) News release at:
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1080537
• Atmospheric rivers in Antarctica - by Jonathan Wille et al. (2025)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD045296
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164385286809679
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/04/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027.html
• Ocean heat threatens sea ice
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/ocean-heat-threatens-sea-ice.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/04/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/ocean-heat-threatens-sea-ice.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
