Showing posts with label Antarctic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Antarctic. Show all posts

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update

Arctic sea ice

A Blue Ocean Event could be declared when Arctic sea ice reaches or crosses a threshold of 1 million km² in extent.

On June 10, 2026, Arctic sea ice was 10.939 million km² in extent, a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. Arctic sea ice extent has been very low in the year to date, despite the dominance of La Niña conditions. Extent looks set to fall dramatically as El Niño conditions strengthen and forecasts indicate that this El Niño will be the strongest on record.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 10.78 million km² on June 11, 2026 (black), lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.01σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice extent in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the extent in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño. 


Another measure is Arctic sea ice volume. The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 11, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) after the annual maximum volume was reached. 

The image below, from an earlier post, shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 

In the above image, the difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³. With strong melting taking place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur, with virtually all Arctic sea disappearing in September 2026.

The animation below, made with NASA images, shows the Arctic sea ice just north of the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through June 10, 2026. This is where some of the thickest Arctic sea ice is located. The animation illustrates that even the thickest sea ice can break up with the pieces getting moved by wind and ocean currents into the Atlantic Ocean where they will melt away.


Temperature

The image below, adapted from nullschool.net, shows sea surface temperatures in the Arctic on June 11, 2026. The image shows many areas with temperatures high enough to cause the sea ice to disappear. 


The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows that temperatures above 0°C are forecast over much of the Arctic Ocean including the North Pole for June 17, 2026. 


On land in the Northern Hemisphere (where most people live), the average temperature departure from 1901-2000 will rise dramatically with strengthening of the 2026 El Niño, as illustrated by the NOAA plot below. 


Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically in the course of 2026 for a number of reasons including acceleration of the temperature rise over the years (more than 1°C rise from 2013 as illustrated by the green trend in the above image) and rising strength of the 2026 El Niño.

The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and also features in an earlier post. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).


According to NOAA, El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027). The image below, from NOAA, shows probabilities, while NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January. 


The image below illustrates that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a temperature forecast for January 2027, with high temperature anomalies showing up all over the Arctic Ocean and over areas where currently sea ice is present around Antarctica. This indicates that there will be dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice. 


The images below show forecasts for the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) from December 2026 through March 2027, further confirming indications that there will be dramatic Antarctic sea ice loss. 

SSTA December 2026

SSTA January 2027

SSTA February 2027

SSTA March 2027

The image below, from Berkeley Earth Temperature Report for 2024, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise in 2020-2023 compared to 2010-2019.

[ image from earlier post ]

The red color on the above image shows an area with an extra radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m², primarily resulting from Antarctic sea ice loss.

This additional radiative forcing of +2.1 W/m² is about as much as the change in radiative forcing caused by all carbon dioxide released by people from 1750 to 2019, according to IPCC AR6 figures (image right). 

The image below is created with NOAA January 2001 through May 2026 NOAA data with a trend added to highlight the danger of accelerating sea surface temperature rise and Antarctic sea ice loss.

Antarctic sea ice

A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.  

   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post describes that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean.

Ominously, relative humidity (RH) is forecast to be rising over Antarctica. The forecast below shows a RH of as high as 70% at the location marked by the green circle at 70 hPa over Antarctica on June 18, 2026. The 70 hPa is a pressure level corresponding with an altitude in the lower stratosphere. 


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NASA - Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - Climate at a Glance - Time Series

• NOAA

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion - issued June 11, 2026

• NOAA - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities
• The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks - by Robert Massom et al. 
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/3271/2026
also discussed on facebook at: 

• nullschool.net - relative humidity
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/04/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027.html

• Ocean heat threatens sea ice
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/05/ocean-heat-threatens-sea-ice.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html



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Friday, May 1, 2026

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may be gone within ten months

Arctic sea ice has been several times at a record low for the time of year in terms of both extent, area and volume, e.g. on April 24, 2026, on May 7, 2026, and on May 8, 2026, as discussed further below. The upcoming El Niño looks set to trigger dramatic loss of sea ice and associated feedbacks, resulting in loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026 and Antarctic sea ice in February 2027. 

El Niño

Earlier posts have warned that the upcoming El Niño could contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño threatens to become a monster within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development), with forecasts exceeding 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the mean. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and with a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region over the years from the start of the year to June. On April 30, the 2026 SST (red line) was higher than the 2016 SST (thick grey line). From January 9, 2026, through April 30, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region has risen by 3.15°C.


The image below shows a NOAA update 14 May 2026 update of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) strength probabilities based on ERSSTv5 Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperatures. 


The image below shows a May 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left. 


Forecasts for each of the four NINO regions are added in the combination image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months, in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months. 

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on May 8, 2026.


Arctic sea ice area was 10.75 million km² on May 8, 2026 (black), the lowest area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.19σ, as illustrated by the image below. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year), which was 0.99 million km² higher on May 7, 2012 (11.74 million km²). 

The combination image below shows images adapted from nullschool and NSIDC with sea surface temperatures on the left and sea ice concentration on the right on May 8, 2026.


The combination image below shows images adapted from Uni of Bremen with Arctic sea ice concentration on the left and Arctic sea ice thickness on the right on May 8, 2026.


The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 14, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) from the annual maximum volume. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 


Feedbacks, thresholds and tipping points

Sea ice loss comes many feedbacks and there is interaction between feedbacks. As an example, sea ice decline comes with both loss of albedo (Feedback #1) and loss of the latent heat buffer (Feedback #14), each of which will accelerate the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, thus contributing to the threat that hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean will be destabilized, which in turn threatens to cause eruption of huge amounts of methane (Feedback #16), which will further drive up the temperature in the Arctic and cause stronger melting of terrestrial permafrost.

A further danger lies in changes occurring to wind and ocean current patterns; the temperature rise will cause stronger wind, waves and storms, as well as deformation of the Jet Stream (Feedback #19). In addition, the temperature rise causes loss of reflectivity of clouds (Feedback #25) and more ocean stratification (Feedback #29), exacerbated by more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. In the North Atlantic, there is the additional danger that formation of a freshwater lid (Feedback #28) will cause huge amounts of ocean heat to be pushed into the Arctic Ocean and enter the atmosphere as sea ice disappears.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. The image illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks increasing and accelerating the temperature rise (the yellow horizontal bar), and of thresholds and tipping points causing the temperature rise to jump up a step when crossed.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]
Feedback numbers correspond with the list at the feedbacks page. Some of them are discussed below.

Feedback #1: albedo loss (loss of reflectivity) as sea ice melts due to rising temperatures and due to the ice getting covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

Feedback #14: loss of the latent heat buffer - as sea ice disappears, heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting, and the heat will instead go into increasing the temperature;

Feedback #16: eruptions of seafloor methane - as more heat reaches the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, sediments and hydrates contained in them destabilize, resulting in methane releases. Vast amounts of methane are held in hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Miesner et al. (2023) warn that 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years. By comparison, the atmosphere contains about 5 Gt of methane. The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat of thinning of Arctic sea ice resulting in increased ocean heat and methane eruptions.
[ The Buffer is gone ]
Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice;

Feedback #23: open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, stronger melting of sea ice, with a study showing a 2°C rise in the polar climate after a 25-year run;

Feedback #25: extra water vapor feedback - rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas;

Feedback #28: freshwater lid on the North Atlantic - melting of sea ice and glaciers and thawing of the permafrost results in meltwater accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, where it forms a cold freshwater lid on top of the water; this lid grows further due to more rain falling on top of this lid. This results in less evaporation and transfer of heat from the North Atlantic to the atmosphere, and more ocean heat getting carried by the Gulf Stream underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean;

Feedback #30: The clouds feedback reduces the reflectivity of lower clouds and comes with a tipping point at 1200 CO₂e that, when crossed, causes the temperature rise to increase by an abrupt 8°C. Such a high CO₂e could be reached due to eruption of methane from the seafloor, as discussed in an earlier post and as illustrated by the image below. 

[ from Clouds Tipping Point ]
Ominously, the forecast for August 2026 below shows very high sea surface temperature anomalies for the Arctic Ocean, which spells bad news for Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in September. 


Antarctic sea ice

Could a Double Blue Ocean Event occur in 2026/2027? The global sea ice area anomaly (versus 1981-2010) was the second lowest on record for the time of year on May 11, 2026 (black line), as illustrated by the image below. Also highlighted are 2016, 2023 and 2024 (purple lines).  


The above image shows that the global sea ice area anomaly reached a record low in November 2016 (purple line, bottom right), a year when there was a super El Niño—very worrying, since the 2026 El Niño threatens to be even stronger than the 2016 El Niño. The lowest annual area anomaly on record actually was the year 2025 (blue line), which makes the situation even more worrying, since 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image below), so much of the record low global sea area anomaly in the year 2025 can be attributed to the recent acceleration in global temperatures. 


Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February. As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called.
[ image from earlier post ]
   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
What caused the 2023 Antarctic sea ice loss? Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post describes that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

Ominously, the forecast below for January 2027 shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February, as mentioned above. 

[ Sea surface temperature anomaly - click on images to enlarge ]
Temperature rise

On May 6, 2026, a record high sea surface temperature was recorded for that day, tiered with May 6, 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 


On May 8, 2026, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.53°C, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.13°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The image below also shows that the annual highest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are typically reached in July and that very high anomalies were recorded in July in the three previous years, i.e. in 2023, 2024 and 2025 (orange), even though the year 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image further above). 


The image below shows NASA Land-Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) updated through April 2026.

The above image indicates that anomalies (versus 1880-1890) have been high since 2021, i.e. the rise in temperature has been at or above 1.5°C for each month since 2021 (black squares connected by the black lines). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the temperature rise accelerated in 2022 and crossed 2°C in 2022, while the trend further indicates that 3°C may get crossed soon on land (where most people live), in 2029 if this trend continues (linear dashed red extension) or even earlier if the trend's rise accelerates further (as illustrated by the image below with a polynomial trend).

The image below illustrates that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, from an earlier post, uses NASA monthly data through March 2023. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

The image below is a 2025 update, the same adjustments are made to data through April 2025.


The image below is a 2026 update, the same adjustments are made to data through March 2026.


While the above images indicate that we have dodged a few bullets, we keep playing Russian roulette and keep pulling the same clathrate gun's trigger until one day the bullet will be in the chamber. Note also that we've been in a La Niña and that a monster El Niño is on the way.

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above images is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The images show that, when adjusting the data and using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature rise may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged shouldn't and wouldn't be crossed.

Human extinction

In 2022, the IPCC said that limiting warming to 2°C would require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest. As discussed in an earlier post, it looks like emissions didn't peak in 2025 and we're on track for a 3°C rise, yet the IPCC refuses to warn people about how dire the situation is, despite mounting indications that humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise in temperature.

An earlier post pictures where we area: As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more apparent and manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise will likely suffice to cause human extinction.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. What does this mean for humans? Terrestrial vertebrates are more in danger than many other species, since they depend on numerous other species for food. Humans are terrestrial vertebrates and humans are also large warm-blooded mammals with high metabolic rates, thus requiring more habitat. It also takes a long time for humans to reach maturity. Additionally, humans have become addicted to processed food, fossil fuels, plastic, etc. Furthermore, humans require large amounts of fresh water, including for sweating when temperatures rise. 

A 2016 study led by F. Alice Cang finds projected climate change by 2070 to be consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. As discussed in this post on facebook, a recent analysis led by Nicolas Gauthier confirms the 2016 study findings, adding that grasses include staples, such as rice, maize, wheat, and barley, which now provide the majority of the global human caloric intake. Among these vital crops, domesticated Asian rice serves as a primary food source for over half the global population. 

As discussed in an earlier post, temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapid warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, as a recent study points out.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 18, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - ENSO strength probabilities - Update May 14, 2026

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder 
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification - by Aditya Narayanan et al.
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164227571539679

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164124732849679

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Projected warming will exceed the long-term thermal limits of rice cultivation - by Nicolas Gauthier et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03108-0





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