Arctic News: Guy McPherson

Showing posts with label Guy McPherson. Show all posts

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Sea ice loss increases methane danger

Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on January 16, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.

Massive loss of albedo (reflectivity) amplifies the decline of Antarctic sea ice and the decline of the snow and ice cover over Antarctica, resulting in elevation of the global temperature that can be expected to persist at least through September 2026, when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent.

Less Antarctic sea ice contributes strongly to lower albedo, due to the size of Antarctic sea ice and its proximity to the Equator.

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows that the 36-month running average for the Earth's albedo has meanwhile hit yet another new record low, at 28.689%.

Additional elevation of the global temperature can be expected due to an emerging El Niño.

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows very high temperature anomalies forecast around Antarctica and over the Arctic Ocean for September 2026, at a time when Arctic sea ice volume is expected to be very low. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can in itself make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice

Sea ice is low at both poles. This results in loss of global albedo, which elevates temperatures. El Niño can be expected to further elevate temperatures in the course of 2026.

Adding to the problems, Arctic sea ice has become very thin. Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, it has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through January 15, 2026.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Carbon dioxide concentrations typically reach an annual maximum in May. The image below shows carbon dioxide concentrations (surface flasks) as high as 437 ppm recorded half 2025 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Currently, concentrations of greenhouse gases at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, are very high and rising. The image below is adapted from an image issued by NOAA January 8, 2026, and shows recent monthly carbon dioxide concentrations as high as 442 ppm.

The image below shows daily measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations from 2020

The above image and the images below are adapted from images issued by NOAA January 6, 2026.

These images show concentrations of greenhouse gases recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The image below shows hourly average methane measurements from 2020.

The image below shows monthly average methane measurements from 2001.

The image below shows monthly average nitrous oxide measurements from 2016.

Temperatures

The image below with NASA Land-Only annual anomalies with respect to 1880-1912 shows that 1.5°C was crossed for all years from 2015 through 2025 (black squares). Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that 2°C was crossed after 2022 (in 2023, 2024 and 2025) and that 3°C may get crossed soon, as early as in 2031 if this trend continues (dashed extension). Note that the 1880-1912 base is not pre-industrial. Temperature anomalies can be even higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used.

The above image also illustrates how much difference it can make for temperature anomalies on land to go from a La Niña to an El Niño. The year 2022 was a La Niña year and the temperature anomaly on land was less than 1.8°C vs 1880-1912. El Niño conditions prevailed from March 2023 to March 2024, and the temperature anomaly in 2024 was about 0.6°C higher than it was in 2022. This makes one wonder by how much the temperature anomaly will go up compared to 2025, if El Niño conditions will emerge in 2026 and persist into 2027.

The image below illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies more than 1.5°C above 1951-1980 and much more when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating temperatures in 2025.

The above image illustrates that, in the Northern Hemisphere, 2025 was the third year in a row with temperature anomalies higher than 1.5°C above 1951-1980. Note that temperature anomalies will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Note also that El Niño wasn't elevating the temperature in 2025.

As illustrated by the image on the right, the highest temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 occurred over the Arctic Ocean.

This is further illustrated by the image below that shows the NASA 2025 temperature anomaly.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for September 2026.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for October 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over much of the Arctic Ocean.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed the danger of rising temperatures.

The heat in the Arctic also manifested itself in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event recently, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image illustrates how heat rising high up in the atmosphere resulted in temperatures as high as -23°C (-9.5°F) at 10 hPa over Russia at the green circle (globe on the left) on January 10, 2026.
At the same time, this resulted in very low temperatures at surface level. Temperatures of -41°C (41.9°F) were recorded at the green circle (globe on the right).

The image on the right illustrates that low surface (2 meter) temperatures can be expected to persist in January 2026. The image shows a forecast for January 29, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

The threat of seafloor methane eruptions

Sea ice

Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record daily low, as it has been for more than a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through November 21, 2025.

The image below shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

[ from earlier post ]

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below.

[ screenshot from earlier post ]

Arctic sea ice extent was 1.91 million km² lower than 1981-2020 on November 21, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.34σ.

The image below shows that the global sea ice extent was 3.40 million km² lower than 1981-2020 on November 21, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -5.51σ. This is terrifying, given that we're currently in a La Niña.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures around Antarctica as high as 0.7°C or 33.3°F (at the green circle, on the left of Antarctica) on November 21, 2025.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures around Antarctica as high as -0.9°C or 30.4°F (at the green circle, on the right of Antarctica) on November 21, 2025.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) finds that, over the years, surface waters have become more salty.

When surface waters become saltier, they sink more readily, stirring the ocean’s layers and allowing heat from the deep to rise. This upward heat flux can melt sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

In addition to heat rising up from the deep, there is the danger that increasing amounts of both heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂), previously taken up by the ocean and stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise.

Less sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in higher sea surface temperatures. Less global sea ice thus contributes to lower albedo. The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows the 36-month running average for the Earth albedo just hit yet another new record low, at 28.701%.

Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, created with a screenshot from a Copernicus image, shows that, over the past few months, temperatures have risen by 0.5°C, i.e. from an anomaly (vs 1991-2020) of 0.41°C on June 23 to 0.91°C on November 22, 2025 (dark red line), getting close to if not exceeding temperature anomalies reached in 2024 (orange) and 2023 (yellow).

In fact, the temperature reached a new daily record high on November 22, 2025, and this occurred despite the fact that we're currently in a La Niña that suppresses temperatures, whereas temperatures were raised from May 2023 through April 2024 when El Niño conditions were dominant.

The image below shows land-only monthly temperature anomalies from 1903-1915 through October 2025 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) points at 3°C getting crossed in the course of 2031 (dashed extension). The 1903-1915 base is not pre-industrial. Anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below shows land+ocean monthly temperature anomalies from 1903-1915 through October 2025 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) points at 2°C getting crossed before 2030 and 3°C getting crossed before 2040 (dashed extension). As said, the anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The 3°C threshold is important since humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as discussed in this 2019 post.

The image below shows the October 2025 temperature anomaly from 1951-1980. Anomalies are very high, exceeding 10°C in areas over both the poles.

The combination image below highlights the October 2025 very high temperature anomalies (from 1951-1980), exceeding 10°C in areas over both the poles.

The image below shows the global monthly surface temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 through October 2025, when the anomaly was 1.37°C.

Note that the 1951-1980 base isn't pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly will be much higher, well above the thresholds that politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.

Ominously, anomalies have kept rising over the past few months, and this occurred in the absence of El Niño conditions in 2025.

The image below shows the global temperature standard anomaly for the 12 months from November 2024 through October 2025.

The image below shows the standard deviation (Sd) anomalies from 1951-1980 of Arctic temperatures over the past few years, with a Standard Anomaly of 6.68σ reached in October 2025.

The image below shows the standard deviation (Sd) anomalies from 1951-1980 of Arctic temperatures over the past few years, with a Standard deviation Anomaly of 4.59σ reached in October 2025.

Sea surface temperature anomalies

The image below shows monthly sea surface temperature anomalies from 1951-1980 through September 2025, when the anomaly was 0.74°C. The image also shows that the anomaly in September 2023 was 0.901°C.

The image below shows the standard deviation from 1951-1980 of the monthly sea surface temperature through September 2025, when it was 8.045σ. The image also shows that the standard deviation in August 2023 was 10.148σ.

In statistics, the empirical rule states that in a normal distribution, 68% of the observed data will occur within one standard deviation (1σ), 95% within two standard deviations (2σ), and 99.7% within three standard deviations (3σ) of the mean. A 4σ event indicates that the observed result is 4 standard deviations (4σ) away from the expected mean. In a normal distribution, 99.993666% of data points would fall within this range. The chance for data to fall outside of 4σ is thus infinitesimally small.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures have remained very high. The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981-2011 in the Northern Hemisphere, with anomalies as high as 9°C or 13.6°F visible in the path of the Gulf Stream (at the green circle).

Wild weather swings

[ 24+°C anomaly over part of Greenland ]

Wild weather swings are striking the world with accelerating intensity and ferocity. More than 1.4 million evacuated as second typhoon in a week slams into the Philippines, reports CNN.

The image on the right shows temperature anomalies higher than 24°C at 2m in an area over Greenland on November 13, 2025.

The image below shows strong wind over Baffin Bay boosting temperatures over Greenland to levels as high as 12.9°C or 55.1°F (at the green circle) at 1000 hPa on November 13, 2025, as strong wind pushes warm air over Greenland, while cold Arctic air gets pushed down toward England.

ENSO outlook, next El Niño likely to be devastating

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Currently, global sea ice is low and temperatures are high, despite the fact that La Niña conditions are suppressing the temperature. This should constitute a strong warning that temperatures look set to accelerate dramatically with the development of the next El Niño, likely to occur in the course of 2026.

According to a NOAA analysis issued Nov 13, 2025, La Niña continued over the past month, and La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (61% chance, image right).

ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) has three states: El Niño (when temperatures are higher than average), La Niña (when temperatures are suppressed), and a neutral state.

The image on the right, adapted from a November 2025 NOAA image, gives an ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) that favors La Niña to persist into the early Northern Hemisphere winter 2025-26, implying that temperatures will remain suppressed until early 2026.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomaly and forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through November 2026, indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

The depth of the current La Niña is illustrated by the image below. The image shows strongly negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA, NOAA OISST v2.1 data) in the Niño3.4 area in the Central Pacific, with a -0.98°C anomaly vs 1991-2020 on November 18, 2025, while the inset shows global SSTA vs 1991-2020 on November 18, 2025.

NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The graph below uses CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System) data showing an anomaly of -1.202ºC on November 15, 2025.

The CDAS analysis below shows very low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño3.4 area on November 15, 2025.

The CanSIPS forecast for March 2026 below shows high sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean, indicating development of the next El Niño. The low sea surface temperature anomalies around Antarctica indicate areas where heavy melting will likely have taken place by March 2026.

Antarctica

Sea ice extent is currently low at both poles. The low global sea ice extent at this time of year combined with high sea surface temperatures spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its minimum extent in February.

The image on the right shows Antarctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on November 21, 2025.

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on November 19, 2025 (left) and Antarctic sea ice thickness on November 19, 2025 (right).

The comparison image below shows the thickness of the Antarctic sea ice on October 6 and on November 21, 2025.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, triggering an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026 while a developing El Niño is strengthening the danger. Ominously, the forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for August 2026 below looks grim.

The methane danger

This increases the danger that massive amounts of methane will erupt from the seafloor in 2026, further accelerating the temperature rise.

The methane danger is further illustrated by the images below. The image directly below shows methane as high as 2620 parts per billion (ppb) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite at 487.2 mb on November 5, 2025 AM.

The image below shows hourly methane measurements well above 2400 ppb. The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA November 9, 2025, showing methane hourly averages recorded in situ at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.

The image below is a similar image, this time showing that the monthly average methane recorded at the same station is about 2050 ppb.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed our predicament.

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - ENSO evolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - Climate Prediction Center

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) - charts

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

• NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Pre-industrial

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Tropicaltidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Focus on Antarctica