Ocean currents keep pushing heat toward the Arctic Ocean
Arctic sea ice is getting very thin, as temperatures keep rising and ocean currents keeps pushing warm water toward the Arctic, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, showing sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on August 8, 2022.
Latent heat is ocean heat that is, or rather was previously consumed by melting of the sea ice underneath the sea surface.
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As long as air temperatures are low enough to keep this surface ice frozen and as long as there are no strong winds pushing the ice out of the Arctic Ocean, this thin layer of ice will act as a seal, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.
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NOAA registered a globally averaged marine surface April 2022 mean of 1909.9 ppb, which is 18.7 ppb higher than April 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. By comparison, the highest annual growth on the NOAA record is 18.31 ppb for 2021.
When adding this monthly CO₂ concentration of 420.99 ppm and the above 393.8 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 814.79 ppm CO₂e.
The clouds tipping point could be crossed due to an additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor, which is only 10% of the 50 Gt that Natalia Shakhova et al. warned about long ago, while 50 Gt is in turn only a small fraction of all the methane contained in sediments in the Arctic. On its own, such an eruption of seafloor methane could raise the global mean methane concentration by another 1969 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into another 393.8 ppm CO₂e, which when added to the above 814.79 ppm CO₂e, gives a total of 1208.59 ppm CO₂e.
|[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]|
There are further forcers and feedbacks to be taken into account, which means that the clouds tipping point could be crossed even with a far smaller abrupt release of seafloor methane. While it would take longer for the clouds tipping points to get crossed that way, the associated temperature rise could be enough to drive humans into extinctions well before the tipping point was even reached. A rise of 3°C above pre-industrial could occur on land and drive humans into extinction by 2025.
|[ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ]|
El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon.
The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).
Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause even more dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise.
• University of Bremen
• Latent Heat Buffer
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
• Clouds feedback
• Cataclysmic Alignment
• Human Extinction by 2025?
• Climate Plan