Arctic News

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Will 2026 El Nino cause Antarctic Blue Ocean Event?

The above image shows a record high sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region of 30.18°C on October 24, 2026, 4.43°C higher than the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The anomaly versus 1982-2010 was +3.57°C on October 24, 2026, the highest anomaly on record, in a tie with October 18, 2026, when the anomaly versus 1982-2010 was equally high.

The map (inset at the bottom of the above image) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 24, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted.

Temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are indicative of El Niño's strength. The 2015/2016 El Niño reached its peak strength late 2015. Similarly, the 2023/2024 El Niño reached its peak strength late 2023, as indicated by the grey square on the thick grey line on the above image.

In the above image, issued by NOAA on October 19, 2026, the 2026/2027 El Niño doesn't yet show up, but it is forecast to reach peak strength late 2026, as illustrated by the image below.

[ image from earlier post ]

Strong melting of Antarctic sea ice typically occurs around the end of the year, so this year this is forecast to coincide with the strongest El Niño on record reaching peak strength.

Teleconnections

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through October 19, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.39°C, an anomaly of 1.29°C versus 1979-2000. The globe (inset top left) shows the surface air temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 on October 19, 2026, with the Tropics highlighted, while the other globe (inset top right) shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on October 19, 2026.

The image below shows atmospheric rivers carrying hot and moist air toward the poles, resulting in snowfall over Antarctica, thickening the snow layer there, while making the Southern Ocean more saline and thus making Antarctica sea ice more vulnerable to melting, as discussed in an earlier post.

Prospect of an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event

On February 22, 2023, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.09 million km², very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, and deviation from 1981-2010 of 3.03σ, as illustrated by the image below. The light blue shading in the image below indicates 3σ deviation.

Importantly, there was no strong El Niño present when the Antarctic sea ice reached its minimum area in 2023. By contrast, the 2026 El Niño will be very strong, its peak strength will occur late 2026, and the El Niño is forecast to extend into early 2027.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on October 15, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.92 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -5.31σ. The blue band in the middle indicates a deviation of 1σ from the 1981-2010 average.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/double-blue-ocean-event.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/08/antarctic-sea-ice-increasingly-in-danger.html

• Antarctica (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica.html

• When Will We Die? (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Extinction (2016)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• The Climate Plan by Sam Carana (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Global Warming from 1900

At the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, nations pledged to hold the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The image below, with the title Global Warming from 1900, featured in a 2016 post, now ten years ago.

In the above image, data are adjusted, showing the 1.5°C threshold crossed for two months in 2016. The added trend ominously shows the 1.5°C threshold getting crossed more permanently in 2022, while pointing at 2°C getting crossed in 2030.

What is pre-industrial?

The above 2016 image uses adjusted NASA data and a polynomial trend to illustrate the accelerating temperature rise from 1900. An adjustment of +0.28°C caters for the rise from 1900 to 1951-1980, since 1951-1980 is NASA's default base, which isn't a pre-industrial base. For more on such adjustment, also see this 2015 post. Of course, the year 1900 isn't pre-industrial either. For an analysis of the temperature rise going further back in time, have a look at the pre-industrial page and the image below.

[ from earlier post ]

The issue is not merely a matter of which date is used as pre-industrial base, but also a matter of the elements that are included in the temperature to rise and what their respective size could be. An example is ocean temperature, the NOAA dataset uses sea surface temperatures, i.e. the temperature of the water, whereas the ERA5 dataset uses the temperature of the air above the water. Another issue is whether to measure the Arctic temperature by looking at the air over the ice, the ice itself or the water underneath the ice. Also important is that some areas are now open water, while there was previously sea ice.

Elements of the temperature rise

The image below looks at elements to be looked at when calculating people's contribution to the temperature rise to date and the temperature rise to come.

The IPCC regards the observed temperature as a temperature rise (or anomaly) from the period 1850-1900. The observed temperature rise is partly masked by aerosols (M). Aerosols could fall out of the air quickly in case of industrial collapse, removing the part of the temperature rise that is now masked, so the rise from 1850-1900 could quickly become only (O), instead of (O+M).

The masking effect by aerosols results from industrial emissions, particularly sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from fossil fuel burning that convert into sulfates through atmospheric oxidation. Airborne sulfate particles are white, reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space.

Another type of aerosols is black carbon, which has a warming effect. Before the Industrial Revolution, people burned wood and crop residue for household heating, cooking and metallurgy, resulting in emissions of black carbon. A 2013 study calculates that black carbon has a warming effect of about 1.1 W/m² of which 0.17 W/m² can be attributed to pre-industral emissions of black carbon. In case of industrial collapse, part of the future rise (F) could be caused by more warming due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place as industrial activity collapses and as more waste gets burned.

As said, the IPCC calculates the anomaly from the period 1850-1900, which ignores the rise before that period (P). The IPCC also ignores the rise that took place to negate the natural decline in temperature (H). When also taking into account that the temperature would have declined naturally, i.e. in line with Milankovitch cycles and in the absence of emissions by people (E3), the rise caused by people to negate this decline could also be included (H), adding up to an even higher historic temperature rise (O+M+P+H), while there could be an additional rise to come soon that could also be huge (F).

[ from earlier post ]

Additionally, the full impact of all past emissions may not be fully felt yet, e.g. the full effect of carbon dioxide emissions reaches its peak only a decade after emission (E4). Furthermore, humans are likely to continue to cause emissions in the near future (E5). Finally, additional releases of greenhouse gases are likely to come from what was once called permafrost and from sinks turning into sources, resulting in an additional rise that's already baked into the cake (E6). Therefore, the historic rise plus the rise to come soon (O+M+P+H+F) may approach 5°C.

Feedbacks and deforestation

The diagram below further illustrates the importance of feedbacks and deforestation. Removal of trees has caused deforestation and soil carbon loss since prehistoric times, in turn causing emissions including carbon dioxide, methane and black carbon, while also reducing cooling aerosols released by trees and while also reducing the heat buffer of evaporation and the heat buffer of snow and ice that previously cooled the atmosphere. Since prehistoric times, burning wood and deforestation has caused emissions of black carbon and dust that blackened the snow and ice cover, thus further speeding up its decline.

[ from earlier post ]

Feedbacks can dramatically increase the temperature rise, as they can be self-amplifying or can amplify each other.

Which trend works best?

Next to the question of how best to calculate how much people have caused the temperature to rise, there is a question of which trend works best to capture both the temperature rise until now and the potential rise to come.

The image below, from a recent analysis led by Qinjian Jin, uses linear trends showing the temperature rising during 2011–2025 at a rate of 0.40°C per decade (purple), twice as much as the 0.20°C per decade during 1971–2025 (yellow). Extrapolating the accelerated (purple) rate projects a crossing of the 1.5°C threshold by 2028. The analysis shows that the temperature rise has doubled, but the analysis stops short of using curved lines or polynomial trends and instead sticks to linear trends.

The analysis is also discussed by Paul Beckwith in the video below.

By comparison, the IPCC in AR6 gives values as depicted in the image below.

The image below is adapted from a 2023 analysis by James Hansen et al.

James Hansen et al. also conclude that the temperature rise is accelerating, but they also stop short of using curved lines or polynomial trends and instead stick to linear trends.

One problem with linear trends is that they calculate the average temperature during a period, thus showing the average temperature over past years, while masking the current temperature and a potentially steep rise in future. In other words, linear trends can obscure both recent and future acceleration. By contrast, curved lines and polynomial trends are better equipped to illustrate potential acceleration, while they can also smooth out seasonal and temporary changes.

Huge temperature rise

[ from the Extinction page ]

The image on the right is a later version of an image dating back to 2016 that warns about the importance of taking into account a potentially huge rise soon. Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly accelerate the temperature rise, as warned about at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Temperatures look set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically due to more wood burning and forest fires taking place as industrial activity collapses.

Pursuing efforts?

Most nations have meanwhile ratified the Paris Agreement, which means that politicians are legally obliged to adhere to the Paris Agreement thresholds. However, after more than a decade of pursuing efforts, little or no progress appears to have been made.

The temperature rise is clearly accelerating and denying such acceleration is yet another sick trick in the books of the politicians who control the IPCC, next to using an inappropriate base (instead of pre-industrial), ignoring parts of the current and future temperature rise, and inappropriately using linear trends, even when polynomials obviously work better.

Conclusion

A decade ago, the post concluded as follows: the situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. This applies even more today. The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group. For an update of the Climate Plan, see the Climate Plan by Sam Carana.

Links

• Pursuing efforts? (2016)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/10/pursuing-efforts.html

the image at the top is discussed on facebook at

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10157467577950161&set=pcb.10157467585060161

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028 - by Qinjian Jin et al. (2026)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01561-y

• Global Warming Rate Has Recently Doubled Meaning We Pass 1.5C By 2028 and 2.0C by as Early as 2038 - video by Paul Beckwith

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRDpJazOpTk

discussed on facebook at

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164884114399679

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. (2023)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

• Pre-industrial

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Paris Agreement (2015)

https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf

https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf

• How Much Warming Have Humans Caused? (2016)
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• When Will We Die? (2019)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Extinction (2016)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society (2022)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

• Climate Plan (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• The Climate Plan by Sam Carana (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Sea Surface Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on October 16, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 20.97°C, and 0.77°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record in a tie with recent days.

On October 15, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.09°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.03°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The map on the above image (inset bottom) shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on October 15, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

El Niño

[ sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region ]

[ anomaly in the Niño 1+2 region in 2026 ]

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that the sea surface temperature was 30.05°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 17, 2026, a +3.44°C anomaly versus 1982-2010.

The map (inset at the top of the above image) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 17, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted. The Niño 3.4 region is most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows the sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of well over 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.87°C in the bottom image) occurred within 10 months.

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly vs 1951-1980 in the Niño 3.4 region over time, with the dotted line indicating anomalies may exceed 4°C above this base in 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows El Niño forecasts from October 1, 2026, for the Niño1+2 region (left) and the Niño3 region (right).

The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that the El Niño's peak strength is forecast to occur late 2026.

Antarctic sea ice is already very low. The most rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice typically takes place in November and December, so this year this coincides with a Monster El Niño at its peak strength. The danger is that an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event may occur soon, as early as late 2026, i.e. well before February when Antarctic minimum sea ice typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, illustrates that the monthly total column precipitable water anomaly in September 2026 was the highest on record.

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted.

The temperature difference between the tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.

These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other, such as ocean stratification, sea ice decline and sea level rise. At first glance, sea ice decline may not seem to contribute to sea level rise. However, its indirect contribution can be huge. Sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from melting glaciers (41%, IPCC AR6 data) and decline of ice sheets on land.

Ocean thermal expansion

Firstly, loss of sea ice indirectly contributes to sea level rise, since sea ice loss comes with albedo loss, resulting in higher temperatures that cause thermal expansion. Oceans absorb more than 90% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance. As water absorbs heat, its molecules gain energy, move faster, and spread further apart.

In a 2014 analysis, researchers led by Krisina Pistone calculate that albedo decrease resulting from Arctic sea ice decline between 1979 and 2011 correspond to an additional 6.4 W/m² of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO₂ during this period.

Ice acting as a glue

Secondly, sea ice decline also has an impact on glaciers and ice sheets on land. The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and this could double when taking into account grounding-zone processes. Both the Thwaites glacier and the adjacent sea ice act as a physical buffer, glue or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea level rise and increased ocean heat result in more heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from above and from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise. Sea ice loss also contributes to destabilization of land ice by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below.

Loss of latent heat buffer

Thirdly, with the disappearance of sea ice, the latent heat buffer disappears that would previously consume huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of sea ice melting. Loss of this buffer result in more heat remaining in the ocean, which can destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain huge amounts of methane. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. Wild weather swings could also cause destabilization of sediments and subsequent methane eruptions, as warned about in this 2014 post and this 2025 post.

Why is this important?

Instead of seeking to maintain and strengthen existing infrastructure, the Climate Plan calls for reductions in traditional energy, communications and transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, tunnels and rail lines, through a transition to more online work, ordering, education, health diagnosis, etc, supported by microgrids that are powered by batteries and rooftop solar panels, and are interconnected by WiFi, microwave, laser links and solar planes such as the HAP-alpha's Solar Plane. Where needed, eVTOL air taxis can add extra mobility, as discussed in the ArcticNews group and the air taxis group.

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effects of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming warns how seemingly unrelated developments can combine, compound and make things progressively worse, with dangers feeding into and reinforcing each other, causing collapse of buildings, infrastructure, industries and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally.

What could be done about it?

The Biochar Economy could be established as follows. A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to planting of perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand.

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctica sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen (left) and NSIDC (center) and Antarctic sea ice thickness (right) on October 11, 2026. The orange line on the image at the center shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

On October 15, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.92 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -5.31σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as late 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength late 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

September 2026 sea surface temperature

The image below shows that the September 2026 ocean temperature was 1.10°C higher than 1901-2000, the highest anomaly on record. The added trend reflects El Niño peaking late 2026, contributing to an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event followed by an Arctic Blue Ocean Event.

The image below shows NASA ocean temperature anomalies versus 1880-1920.

Surface temperature

The image below, adapted from nullschool, shows that surface temperatures as high as 3.5°C or 38.3°F were recorded near the coast of the West Antarctic Peninsula and as high as 3.1°C or 37.5°F nearby on land on the West Antarctic Peninsula (inset) on October 15, 2026 17:00 UTC.

[ from the Extinction page ]

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place as industrial activity collapses.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Global Time Series

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/tavg/1/0/1850-2026

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) - Analysis Graphs and Plots - custom plotter
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• Sea-level contribution from Thwaites Glacier doubles in an observation-constrained ice-sheet model - by Mattia Poinelli et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0510-8

discussed on facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164871312359679

• The Biochar Economy

https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar/permalink/234998409882683
https://geo-engineering.blogspot.com/2011/09/biochar-economy.html
https://biochareconomy.blogspot.com/2014/08/biochar-builds-real-assets.html

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

The finger on the image below points at an area over Antarctica where a temperature anomaly of about +30°C was recorded on September 13, 2026.

The mechanism causing this very high temperature anomaly on Antarctica is an atmospheric river carrying warm, moist air from the Tropics to Antarctica, on the way taking up water vapor evaporating from the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Atmospheric rivers ]

Huge pressure differences facilitate such atmospheric rivers. The image on the right shows moisture flowing from high pressure areas near the Equator to low pressure areas over and around Antarctica. There are a number of causes behind these conditions, as described below.

High air temperatures

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 16, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.28°C or 79.3°F, an anomaly of 1.24°C or 2.23°F versus 1979-2000. The map (inset top right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the Tropics highlighted.

High sea surface temperatures

On the image below, there is barely any cold area left in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are now starting to rise strongly in the Southern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. Global warming is making things worse and the 2026 El Niño is making things even worse, with extra heat rising up into the atmosphere from oceans. Furthermore, as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down, Antarctic temperatures can be expected to increase, finds a recent study led by Da Nian.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as much as 8.8°C or 15.8°F higher than 1981-2011 south of Africa (at the green circle) on September 22, 2026.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 25, 2026, when the temperature was 29.82°C or 85.68°F, an anomaly of 3.16°C or 5.69°F versus 1982-2010, and 4.07°C higher than the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 25, 2026, around the globe with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is indicative for the development of El Niño.

The image below shows that a record high temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was reached on September 25, 2026, on a tier with November 17, 2015, when there was a strong El Niño. Note that the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026 and the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that on September 26, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 21.03°C or 69.85°F, an anomaly of 0.731°C or 1.316°F versus 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record, a bit (0.006°C) higher than the 0.725°C reached on January 10, 2024.

[ -70°C near South Pole ]

The map (inset top right) on the above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on September 26, 2026, with high anomalies showing up across the globe.

Very cold in parts of Antarctica

In winter, temperatures are low in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and parts of Antarctica, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the Antarctica page.

The temperature difference between areas at the Equator and parts of Antarctica can therefore be huge, deforming and increasing in strength the Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere, enabling the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica at great strength.

[ precipitable water standardized anomaly ]

The above image illustrates large temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole causing the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica. At the green circle, wind at 250 hPa is as fast as 259 km/h and Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 79 kW/m² on September 13, 2026.

More water vapor in the air

Water vapor in the air is increasing. High (and rising) temperatures result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Global atmospheric water vapor was at a record high of 27.35 kg/m² in August 2026, says Roberta Boscolo. The image on the right shows warm, moist air being carried in the form of an atmospheric river toward and over Antarctica on September 13, 2026.

Snowfall over Antarctica

The image below, from the Antarctica page, shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 16.9 kg/m² on August 25, 2026.

The amount of snow falling on Antarctica can be substantial. The image on the right shows August 2026 total precipitation, with some coastal regions of Antarctica receiving relatively high amounts of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, due to low temperatures, and thickening the snow layer. Most of the snowfall on Antarctica originates from evaporation from the Southern Ocean, making the surface of the Southern Ocean more saline.

The image below shows that on September 12, 2026, a surface temperature of -0.3°C or 31.4°F was recorded near the coast of Antarctica (left), while a temperature of 5.2°C or 41.4°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa.

[ Relative humidity in the stratosphere ]

The image on the right shows an area in the stratosphere (at 70 hPa or at about 17.5 km altitude) with a relative humidity of 100% (at the green circle) giving an idea of the strength at which water vapor is getting pushed into the air over Antarctica.

At a relative humidity of 100%, water vapor turns into solid ice crystals, since the temperature of the moist air in the stratosphere is very low (-91.0°C or -131.8°F at the green circle).

Higher salinity in Southern Ocean

Water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and much of the resulting precipitation returns to the Southern Ocean, but some precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer.

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Loss of Antarctic sea ice

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness by the University of Bremen (left) and concentration by NSIDC (right) on September 13, 2026. The orange line on the image on right shows the median ice edge 1981-2010.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen on September 25, 2026 (left) and by Climate Reanalyzer on September 26, 2026 (right).

The Equinox occurred on September 23, 2026, when the Sun was directly above the Equator and both hemispheres received an equal amount of sunlight, as illustrated by the combination image below.

After the Equinox, the Southern Hemisphere started to receive more sunlight than the Northern Hemisphere. The size of Antarctic sea ice is crucially important, as it determines how much sunlight will be reflected back into space. On September 23, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.802 million km², while Antarctic sea ice extent was 17.306 million km². Furthermore, the Antarctic sea ice is also located much closer to the Equator, thus further causing it to receive more sunlight and reflect more sunlight back into space when it's there.

The image below shows that on September 28, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.59 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.84σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Antarctic sea ice has decreased in extent since September 15, 2026, and extent was 17.058 million km² on September 28, 2026, the second lowest on record after 2023, as illustrated by the image below.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record. Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be horrendous, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Ozone layer

An additional danger is water vapor reaching the stratosphere, with destructive impact on the ozone layer. Monthly total column water vapor was at a record high in August 2026. As temperatures keep rising, this danger becomes more and more manifest. Atmospheric rivers carrying moisture to Antarctica are increasingly common events, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Copernicus found that the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole reached a significant size threshold slightly earlier than average, aligned with 2025. It has also stayed ahead of average, unlike the previous year, as illustrated by the image below.

CAMS chart of the ozone hole area on 12 September 2026. The red line shows the data for 2026 and the dotted line the forecast for the following 5 days. The thicker, darker blue line is the evolution of the ozone hole during 2025, and the lighter blue line represents 2024. The grey colours represent the percentile values and the median between 1979 – 2023.
Data source: CAMS/C3S Credit: CAMS/ECMWF

Conclusion