Thursday, May 21, 2026

Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Sea surface temperatures and El Niño

High sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Ocean on May 22, 2026. 


The above image highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 in three areas:
5.3°C off the coast of South America, 4.6°C off the coast of California and 5.4°C off the coast of Asia.

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of subsurface ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


The image below shows that on May 21, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W, inset), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record, as discussed in an earlier post. 

On May 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E, inset also shows anomalies) sea surface temperature was the highest on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below.


Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). There were La Niña conditions in early 2026, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year. The remainder of 2026 is likely to be dominated by El Niño conditions. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies for the entire globe on May 23, 2026. A larger version is added below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
A temperature of 52.1°C or 125.7°F is forecast in Pakistan on May 28, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.


Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Rising temperatures are threatening to cause dramatic loss in sea ice. Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance and in ocean heat is outpacing SPSS5-8.5, as illustrated by the combination image below, by Leon Simons.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.88 million km² on May 21, 2026, the lowest extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.09σ. Highlighted in black is 2026 and highlighted in blue is 2012, the record low year for Arctic sea ice extent. Highlighted in purple is 2016, a strong El Niño year. 


The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 26, 2026, as it has been for years. 


As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice area was 1.69 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on May 21, 2026, the lowest global area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.77σ. Highlighted in black is 2026 and highlighted in blue is 2025, until now the record low year for global sea ice area.


The map below shows an update of an earlier forecast for November 2026 with temperature anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean at the top of the scale (13°C), adapted from tropicaltidbits.com.


These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean suggests strong sea ice decline, with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, coming with huge albedo changes and loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise. There are further developments that can contribute to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post.


The map above, from an earlier post, and the map below show forecasts for December 2026 and January 2027, respectively, with temperature anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean exceeding 10°C, based on SSP5-8.5 or what used to be called the "worst-case scenario". 


Ominously, the forecast for January 2027 below, from an earlier post and adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February. 


Is SSP5-8.5 the "worst-case" scenario?

The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario pointing at a temperature rise of 1.661°C in February 2025, of 4.388°C in February 2083 and of 5.163°C in February 2100, when using a 1901-2000 base (temperatures will be higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used).

SSP5-8.5
The map below, from an earlier post, shows the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 rise versus 1881-1920 in February 2100. The map shows that the temperature rise in areas on land (where most people live) could be as much as 8°C higher in Feb 2100 in the SSP585 model.


The map warns that temperatures over large parts of the Arctic may be more than 20°C higher than 1881-1920 in February 2100. This would suggest that by 2100 the snow and ice cover in the Arctic will have declined dramatically and that huge amounts of greenhouse gases will likely have been released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. 

The CMIP6 emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) did not fully include the potential impact of bad climate policy and of feedbacks such as seafloor methane eruptions and loss of lower clouds. For "even-worse-than-SSP5-8.5" scenarios, have a look at the potential for a global temperature rise of more than 20°C by 2050 discussed in this 2013 post and the potential for a 18.44°C rise by the end of 2026 discussed in this recent post. 

The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• nullschool.net

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion, Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction, statement issued 14 May 2026 

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - rise in ocean heat and Earth Energy Imbalance 
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mloc6c4bas2v

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html




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Friday, May 15, 2026

Northern Hemisphere heating up

The global surface air temperature was 15.91°C on May 13, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 0.72°C higher than 1991-2020 (more from pre-industrial), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. 


The image below also shows the temperature through May 13, 2026, while showing a 0.74°C anomaly from 1991-2020 and a 1.01°C anomaly from 1979-2000 (and even more from a pre-industrial base). 


The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.56°C on May 9, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.17°C higher than 1979-2000 (and even more from pre-industrial).


The Northern Hemisphere is now heating up rapidly: 
• Seasonal change - temperatures typically reach a peak in July
• The Northern Hemisphere has more land, where temperatures reach higher levels in Summer 
• The temperature rise is accelerating with feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity
• We're rapidly moving from a La Niña into an El Niño 

El Niño is discussed in this earlier post and illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ from earlier post ]
Greenhouse gas concentrations

A recent surface flask reading shows carbon dioxide concentration approaching 437.5 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, dated May 17, 2026.


Another reading dated May 17, 2026, shows the monthly average carbon dioxide concentration exceeding 432.5 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.


Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates a potentially strongly accelerating temperature rise on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026. Note that the anomalies in the image below are from 1901-2000 and would be higher when calculated from pre-industrial. 

[ from earlier post ]
The image below uses Global Land+Ocean NASA monthly data through March 2026. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.
[ from earlier post ]
How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above image is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below, from an earlier post and discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The map below shows a forecast for December 2026 with temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic exceeding 10°C in December 2026 for the SSP5-8.5 model. This suggests strong decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. There are further contributors to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post, while SSP5-8.5 was discussed in this earlier post.
Some suggest that the IPCC should no longer consider the SSP5-8.5 model, because it had become "implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends". However, the 8.5 refers to a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100. While the cost of renewables and sales of coal have fallen, the temperature rise is accelerating and feedbacks are threatening to kick in with greater ferocity. Furthermore, the aerosol masking effect is decreasing. Additionally, as also discussed in this post and in this video posted on facebook, models subtract assumed carbon dioxide removal (CDR), despite doubts that CDR can be accomplished in the way the IPCC is suggesting. This is one of the reasons why models hang on to projections by 2100, i.e. models insist on including doubtful promises of CDR (especially after 2050) in an effort to calculate a lower temperature average for the century, in the process waving away the danger of a huge temperature rise occurring soon. Instead, it is vital to include warnings about a potentially huge temperature rise in advice to policymakers, the more so since policymakers typically look only a few years ahead.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links


• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf







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Sunday, May 3, 2026

Carbon dioxide highest in millions of years - update

This post updates a recent post

Carbon dioxide

The image below shows the daily and hourly average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations for the week ending May 4, 2026, recorded by the Keeling Curve, maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at Mauna Loa Observatory. The latest CO₂ concentration was 433.50 parts per million (ppm).


The image below, dated May 9, 2026, shows hourly and daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 


The above image shows that the daily CO₂ concentration was 433.95 ppm on May 1, 2026 (yellow circle on the right) the highest daily reading on record. The image shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged CO₂ values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. Note the recent wide range, with several hourly CO₂ reading exceeding 440 ppm.

The image below, dated May 5, 2026, shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on April 26, 2026, was 432.44 ppm (red line top right). The monthly average for April 2026 was 431.12 ppm (blue line right). NOAA's CO₂ average daily concentration was at a record high of 433.95 ppm, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on May 1, 2026 (green circle right).


Highest CO₂ in millions of years, fastest rise, most solar radiation since Earth formed

To find CO₂ levels this high back in history, one needs to go back millions of years, as illustrated by the two images below, from an earlier post.



What makes current conditions even more dire is that not only are concentrations of CO₂ extremely high (without match going back millions of years) and rising, but the speed at which CO₂ is currently rising is also unprecedented, while additionally there has been an increase in total solar irradiance of ∼400 Wm⁻² since the formation of the Earth. The image below shows the combined climate forcing by changing CO₂ and solar output for the past 450 million years.


Between 14 and 15 million years ago, the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as illustrated by the image below (adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
Given today's extremely high CO₂ levels, why is the temperature in central Europe not 20°C higher today? The answer is that - for now - most of the extra heat trapped by the extremely high (and rising) greenhouse gas levels doesn't stay in the atmosphere, but is absorbed by oceans, by land, and in the process of melting ice. However, the capacity for oceans, land and ice to keep taking up more heat appears to be reducing fast, as described in more detail further below.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 433.95 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see earlier post) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation. 

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]
Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are rising fast, while methane is rising even faster (see image on the right) and more methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

There are many feedbacks that further contribute to the temperature rise (such as albedo loss and more heat moving remaining in the atmosphere instead of being absorbed by oceans, ice and land, as discussed below). Altogether, this could result in a temperature rise of more than 20°C within one year, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sulfur hexafluoride

The image below shows a worrying recent rise in concentrations of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which has a global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years of 24,300 and, because it has a lifetime of 1000 years, its GWP over 500 years is even higher, i.e. 29,000 (IPCC AR6).

[ discussed on facebook ]
Regarding SF6, one does not have to bother to check historical levels, since the vast majority of SF6 in the atmosphere is a synthetic, industrial gas produced by people that leaked from its use mainly as an insulator in high-voltage and medium-voltage power systems and lines that can carry power over long distances. Clearly, too little is done politically to reduce SF6 emissions, even though there are safe, viable alternatives available to using SF6 in the power industry. Furthermore, rooftop solar systems can - where needed - be part of microgrids, which can reduce the need for transmission lines, poles and towers, which can also reduce fire hazards. Fire can also destroy warehouses where SF6 is stored in tanks.   

The image below shows SF6 recorded at Ochsenkopf, Germany. The fact that Germany has strict regulations to prevent SF6 releases raises concerns that the high recent readings at Mauna Loa and Ochsenkopf may be the start of a global accelerated rise. 


Earth energy imbalance

As temperatures rise, the outgoing longwave radiation (in black) has not risen as fast as the absorbed incoming solar radiation (in orange), due to high (and rising) concentrations of greenhouse gases and loss of albedo, resulting in an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (in red).
Where does the extra energy go? According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and melting ice thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data. In the image below, by Leon Simons, absorbed solar radiation is colored in black, while outgoing longwave radiation is colored red.

[ image by Leon Simons, discussed on facebook ]
Not only is the extra energy increasing, as depicted by the above images, but the proportions of where the extra energy is going is additionally changing, resulting in an increasing temperature rise of the lower atmosphere, as described below.

- Oceans
The ocean's capacity to act as an energy buffer is increasingly compromised by stratification, changes to ocean currents, changes in salinity, ocean oxygen depletion, acidification and more, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. This is a big issue, since oceans take up 91% of the extra heat caused by greenhouse gases, so if there is even a 1% reduction in the heat taken up by oceans, the heat remaining in the atmosphere may double.

- Ice
Furthermore, the capacity for ice to act as a buffer by consuming energy in the process of melting is increasingly compromised by sea ice decline, by retreat of glaciers, and by darkening of ice due to dust, algae, black carbon and more. Arctic sea ice is facing a Blue Ocean Event with sea ice decline threatening to both dramatically lower albedo and reduce the ability for ocean heat to be consumed in the process of melting. Mountain glaciers are also in decline and permafrost is approaching the point where thawing of permafrost will speed up rapidly, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

- Land
The capacity for land to take up heat also faces a tipping point: The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration, i.e. from all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration, including transpiration from vegetation, evaporation from the soil surface, from the capillary fringe of the groundwater table, and from water bodies on land. Once this tipping point gets crossed, the land and atmosphere will heat up strongly, due to the extra heat, i.e. heat that was previously consumed by evaporation and thawing, as described at this page.

- Atmosphere
As said, while the extra energy is increasing, as depicted by the above images, the capacity of oceans, land and ice to take up more energy is decreasing. Consequently, an increasingly large amount of extra heat threatens to accumulate in the lower atmosphere, especially in the Northern Hemisphere over land and in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising faster than anywhere in the world.

Methane emissions from wetlands

The image below is adapted from a recent study led by Zhen Zhang and shows projections in which the tropics (30° S–30° N) contribute approximately 68% of the net increase in estimated wetlands methane emissions, while temperate regions (30° N–60° N) and the Arctic (>60° N) are expected to contribute 21% and 8%.


Compounding dangers in Arctic


Peatlands store approximately 30% of the global total soil carbon, with 80% of this carbon contained in Arctic peatlands. An emerging concern caused by accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw is the rapid increase in Arctic peatland fires, which have already expanded to the Siberian Arctic Ocean coast, Greenland, and Alaskan tundra peatlands. These fires occur along with record-breaking boreal forest fires raging in Canada. Peat fires may smolder for weeks and months, releasing massive amounts of, potentially ancient, carbon, which may transform them from a major carbon sink into a net carbon source into the atmosphere.

In addition to globally significant greenhouse gas emissions, peatland fires release abundant particulate matter. Smoldering peat fires may emit six times more aerosol mass per unit carbon combusted compared to flaming (grassland and forest) fires. Wildfires are a major source of Black Carbon (BC), which is the strongest light-absorbing particulate with a large positive global radiative effect. Simultaneously, wildfires release abundant Organic Carbon (OC), which can have a cooling effect either directly by scattering solar radiation or indirectly by modulating cloud properties. However, increasing evidence of substantial light-absorbing OC, i.e., Brown Carbon (BrC), being emitted in wildfires, suggests that the atmospheric net effect of biomass burning plumes is warming, as specifically shown for boreal and Indonesian peat combustion, while the properties and atmospheric lifetime of BrC vary depending on, for instance, combustion characteristics, biomass type, and moisture content. Moreover, BC and BrC decrease surface albedo when deposited on snow and ice, further accelerating Arctic climate change. Consequently, increasing high-latitude peatland fires are of great concern in the vicinity of snow- and ice-covered surfaces.

The above text and comparison images are adapted from a 2026 analysis led by Meri Ruppel.


Ominously, a peak methane level of 2628 parts per million (ppb) was recorded at 695.1 mb by the NOAA 20 satellite on May 18, 2026 PM, as illustrated by the above image, while the image below shows a peak level of 2579 ppb recorded by the NOAA 21 satellite on May 13, 2026 PM, at 840 mb, which is even closer to sea level, indicating that large releases of methane may have taken place from the seafloor of the ocean. 

Could the Northern Hemisphere land-only temperature rise exceed 3°C soon?

The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel.

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook here ]
Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• Keeling Curve - by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Office of Satellite and Products Operations - NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites 
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• IPCC AR6, Workgroup 1, Chapter 7, Supplementary material - SF6 GWP and lifetime
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07_SM.pdf

• Arctic and Boreal Wildfires Impact Climate by Releasing Ancient Carbon and Light-Absorbing Particles - by Meri Ruppel et al. (2026)




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Friday, May 1, 2026

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may be gone within ten months

Arctic sea ice has been several times at a record low for the time of year in terms of both extent, area and volume, e.g. on April 24, 2026, on May 7, 2026, and on May 8, 2026, as discussed further below. The upcoming El Niño looks set to trigger dramatic loss of sea ice and associated feedbacks, resulting in loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026 and Antarctic sea ice in February 2027. 

El Niño

Earlier posts have warned that the upcoming El Niño could contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño threatens to become a monster within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development), with forecasts exceeding 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the mean. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and with a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region over the years from the start of the year to June. On April 30, the 2026 SST (red line) was higher than the 2016 SST (thick grey line). From January 9, 2026, through April 30, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region has risen by 3.15°C.


The image below shows a NOAA update 14 May 2026 update of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) strength probabilities based on ERSSTv5 Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperatures. 


The image below shows a May 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left. 


Forecasts for each of the four NINO regions are added in the combination image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months, in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months. 

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on May 8, 2026.


Arctic sea ice area was 10.75 million km² on May 8, 2026 (black), the lowest area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.19σ, as illustrated by the image below. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year), which was 0.99 million km² higher on May 7, 2012 (11.74 million km²). 

The combination image below shows images adapted from nullschool and NSIDC with sea surface temperatures on the left and sea ice concentration on the right on May 8, 2026.


The combination image below shows images adapted from Uni of Bremen with Arctic sea ice concentration on the left and Arctic sea ice thickness on the right on May 8, 2026.


The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 14, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) from the annual maximum volume. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 


Feedbacks, thresholds and tipping points

Sea ice loss comes many feedbacks and there is interaction between feedbacks. As an example, sea ice decline comes with both loss of albedo (Feedback #1) and loss of the latent heat buffer (Feedback #14), each of which will accelerate the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, thus contributing to the threat that hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean will be destabilized, which in turn threatens to cause eruption of huge amounts of methane (Feedback #16), which will further drive up the temperature in the Arctic and cause stronger melting of terrestrial permafrost.

A further danger lies in changes occurring to wind and ocean current patterns; the temperature rise will cause stronger wind, waves and storms, as well as deformation of the Jet Stream (Feedback #19). In addition, the temperature rise causes loss of reflectivity of clouds (Feedback #25) and more ocean stratification (Feedback #29), exacerbated by more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. In the North Atlantic, there is the additional danger that formation of a freshwater lid (Feedback #28) will cause huge amounts of ocean heat to be pushed into the Arctic Ocean and enter the atmosphere as sea ice disappears.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. The image illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks increasing and accelerating the temperature rise (the yellow horizontal bar), and of thresholds and tipping points causing the temperature rise to jump up a step when crossed.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]
Feedback numbers correspond with the list at the feedbacks page. Some of them are discussed below.

Feedback #1: albedo loss (loss of reflectivity) as sea ice melts due to rising temperatures and due to the ice getting covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

Feedback #14: loss of the latent heat buffer - as sea ice disappears, heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting, and the heat will instead go into increasing the temperature;

Feedback #16: eruptions of seafloor methane - as more heat reaches the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, sediments and hydrates contained in them destabilize, resulting in methane releases. Vast amounts of methane are held in hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Miesner et al. (2023) warn that 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years. By comparison, the atmosphere contains about 5 Gt of methane. The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat of thinning of Arctic sea ice resulting in increased ocean heat and methane eruptions.
[ The Buffer is gone ]
Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice;

Feedback #23: open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, stronger melting of sea ice, with a study showing a 2°C rise in the polar climate after a 25-year run;

Feedback #25: extra water vapor feedback - rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas;

Feedback #28: freshwater lid on the North Atlantic - melting of sea ice and glaciers and thawing of the permafrost results in meltwater accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, where it forms a cold freshwater lid on top of the water; this lid grows further due to more rain falling on top of this lid. This results in less evaporation and transfer of heat from the North Atlantic to the atmosphere, and more ocean heat getting carried by the Gulf Stream underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean;

Feedback #30: The clouds feedback reduces the reflectivity of lower clouds and comes with a tipping point at 1200 CO₂e that, when crossed, causes the temperature rise to increase by an abrupt 8°C. Such a high CO₂e could be reached due to eruption of methane from the seafloor, as discussed in an earlier post and as illustrated by the image below. 

[ from Clouds Tipping Point ]
Ominously, the forecast for August 2026 below shows very high sea surface temperature anomalies for the Arctic Ocean, which spells bad news for Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in September. 


Antarctic sea ice

Could a Double Blue Ocean Event occur in 2026/2027? The global sea ice area anomaly (versus 1981-2010) was the second lowest on record for the time of year on May 11, 2026 (black line), as illustrated by the image below. Also highlighted are 2016, 2023 and 2024 (purple lines).  


The above image shows that the global sea ice area anomaly reached a record low in November 2016 (purple line, bottom right), a year when there was a super El Niño—very worrying, since the 2026 El Niño threatens to be even stronger than the 2016 El Niño. The lowest annual area anomaly on record actually was the year 2025 (blue line), which makes the situation even more worrying, since 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image below), so much of the record low global sea area anomaly in the year 2025 can be attributed to the recent acceleration in global temperatures. 


Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February. As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called.
[ image from earlier post ]
   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
What caused the 2023 Antarctic sea ice loss? Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post describes that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

Ominously, the forecast below for January 2027 shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February, as mentioned above. 

[ Sea surface temperature anomaly - click on images to enlarge ]
Temperature rise

On May 6, 2026, a record high sea surface temperature was recorded for that day, tiered with May 6, 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 


On May 8, 2026, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.53°C, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.13°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The image below also shows that the annual highest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are typically reached in July and that very high anomalies were recorded in July in the three previous years, i.e. in 2023, 2024 and 2025 (orange), even though the year 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image further above). 


The image below shows NASA Land-Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) updated through April 2026.

The above image indicates that anomalies (versus 1880-1890) have been high since 2021, i.e. the rise in temperature has been at or above 1.5°C for each month since 2021 (black squares connected by the black lines). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the temperature rise accelerated in 2022 and crossed 2°C in 2022, while the trend further indicates that 3°C may get crossed soon on land (where most people live), in 2029 if this trend continues (linear dashed red extension) or even earlier if the trend's rise accelerates further (as illustrated by the image below with a polynomial trend).

The image below illustrates that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, from an earlier post, uses NASA monthly data through March 2023. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

The image below is a 2025 update, the same adjustments are made to data through April 2025.


The image below is a 2026 update, the same adjustments are made to data through March 2026.


While the above images indicate that we have dodged a few bullets, we keep playing Russian roulette and keep pulling the same clathrate gun's trigger until one day the bullet will be in the chamber. Note also that we've been in a La Niña and that a monster El Niño is on the way.

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above images is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The images show that, when adjusting the data and using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature rise may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged shouldn't and wouldn't be crossed.

Human extinction

In 2022, the IPCC said that limiting warming to 2°C would require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest. As discussed in an earlier post, it looks like emissions didn't peak in 2025 and we're on track for a 3°C rise, yet the IPCC refuses to warn people about how dire the situation is, despite mounting indications that humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise in temperature.

An earlier post pictures where we area: As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more apparent and manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise will likely suffice to cause human extinction.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. What does this mean for humans? Terrestrial vertebrates are more in danger than many other species, since they depend on numerous other species for food. Humans are terrestrial vertebrates and humans are also large warm-blooded mammals with high metabolic rates, thus requiring more habitat. It also takes a long time for humans to reach maturity. Additionally, humans have become addicted to processed food, fossil fuels, plastic, etc. Furthermore, humans require large amounts of fresh water, including for sweating when temperatures rise. 

A 2016 study led by F. Alice Cang finds projected climate change by 2070 to be consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. As discussed in this post on facebook, a recent analysis led by Nicolas Gauthier confirms the 2016 study findings, adding that grasses include staples, such as rice, maize, wheat, and barley, which now provide the majority of the global human caloric intake. Among these vital crops, domesticated Asian rice serves as a primary food source for over half the global population. 

As discussed in an earlier post, temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapid warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, as a recent study points out.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 18, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - ENSO strength probabilities - Update May 14, 2026

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder 
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification - by Aditya Narayanan et al.
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164227571539679

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164124732849679

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Projected warming will exceed the long-term thermal limits of rice cultivation - by Nicolas Gauthier et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03108-0





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