Arctic News: El Nino

Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Temperatures

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that on September 29, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 0.75°C higher than 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record again, following the 0.75°C anomaly on September 27, 2026.

On September 19, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface reached a record high temperature of 21.18°C, and a record high anomaly of 1.02°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the peak on the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The above image shows sea surface temperatures through September 28, 2026, when the sea surface temperature was a bit lower than that earlier peak, but the anomaly was equally high, i.e. the sea surface temperature was 1.02°C higher than 1982-2010 again. The map on the right shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on September 28, 2026. Sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a record high sea surface temperature of 30.06°C in the Niño 3.4 region on October 5, 2026, a record high anomaly of +3.49°C from 1982-2010 and 4.31°C higher than the 25.75°C reached on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on October 5, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted.

The Niño 3.4 region is regarded as most indicative of El Niño strength.

The combination image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located closer to South America). A rise of more than 6°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +4.74°C in the bottom image) occurred in the year until now.

The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below, adapted from NOAA and from an earlier post, illustrates that peak strength of the El Niño is forecast to occur from October to December 2026, so the Antarctic sea ice minimum may occur late 2026, well before February when it typically occurs.

Earth's Energy Imbalance

Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons.

Southern Ocean's sea surface becoming more saline

On September 28, 2026, the surface air temperature in the tropics was 26.41°C, the highest temperature on record for that day and 1.33°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The map (inset bottom) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the tropics highlighted.

The temperature difference between the tropics and parts of Antarctica can be huge, enabling hot and moist air to get carried in the form of atmospheric rivers to Antarctica. As a result, temperature anomalies can be high over Antarctica. The image below shows temperature anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows precipitable water standardized anomalies on October 5, 2026.

The images below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies for October 6, 2026.

These atmospheric rivers result in snow falling over Antarctica and thickening of the snow layer there. Evaporation of freshwater from the Southern Ocean has contributed to the sea surface of the Southern Ocean becoming more saline over the past decade, which makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sea level rise, sea ice loss and eruption of methane

As the sea surface heats up, several feedbacks are amplifying each other. Sea level rise is accelerating, since sea level rise is dominated by ocean thermal expansion (38%) and mass loss from glaciers (41%. IPCC AR6 data). The Thwaites glacier accounts for some 4% of sea level rise and the Thwaites glacier also acts as a physical buffer or plug holding back ice in the broader West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Further sea level rise results in more ocean heat reaching and melting parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from below, thus further speeding up the sea level rise.

Furthermore, sea ice loss contributes to destabilization of land ice, by resulting in more wave action and ocean heat reaching parts of the ice sheet, causing more melting from below. Melting of ice sheets can also result in isostatic rebound and lead to destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates. The danger of methane erupting from the seabed near Antarctica was earlier discussed in this post.

The 2005 Hurricane Katrina caused 80% of New Orleans to be flooded, with some parts under 15 feet (4.6 m) of water. The compound effect of sea level rise, high tide and storm surge can be devastating, especially when infrastructure is not built with such dangers in mind. The 2007 article Ten Dangers of Global Warming describes how seemingly unrelated events can combine and make things progressively worse, with one danger feeding into and reinforcing the next one, causing collapse of many buildings, of infrastructure, of industrial activity and of the economic and financial system, adding that - to some extent - a carbon-based currency could take over the role of money locally.

How could the Biochar Economy be established? A carbon-based currency could be created locally, by imposing fees on land where carbon content decreases due to grazing, logging or other forms of vegetation removal. The fees could fund local rewards where carbon content increases locally, due to vegetation planting such as perennial fruit trees and legumes such as peas and beans, and due to adding soil supplements such as biochar and olivine sand.

Similarly, fees could be imposed on sales of livestock products and nitrogen fertilizers made with fossil fuel, with revenues used to fund rebates on local purchases of vegan-organic food, biochar kilns, rock crushing machinery, etc. The currency could be expressed in volume or weight of locally-produced biochar, in recognition of the importance of the Biochar Economy, of which an early description was given in this 2011 post and later in this 2014 post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

On October 2, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.796 million km², the lowest extent on record for the day. Extent has been falling since reaching its maximum on September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen recently, and was 16.73 million km² on October 1, 2026, a record low for the time of year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Antarctic sea ice can be expected to keep falling strongly over the next few months, due to the change in seasons and as El Niño gains in strength.

On October 3, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.81 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest extent and anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.61σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

On October 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.77 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest anomaly on record for that day and a deviation of -4.47σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as the end of 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

[ from the Extinction page ]

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent Arctic Blue Ocean Event. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.

Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus

https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Academic Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Levi Cowan - tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - Earth's Energy Imbalance
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mwy3xgypts2y

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/teleconnections-atmospheric-river-carrying-moisture-to-antarctica.html

• The Biochar Economy

Friday, September 11, 2026

El Nino may cause Arctic sea ice minimum to be late

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 10, 2026 (left), and the sea surface temperature anomaly on September 10, 2026 (right).

The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 9, 2026.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume on September 11, 2026.

The 2026 El Niño

El Niño is on track to gain strength in the course of 2026. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that peak strength can be expected to occur from October to December 2026, so the Arctic sea ice 2026 minimum may well come later than half September, when it typically occurs.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.

The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below, from an earlier post, highlights the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

Double Blue Ocean Event 2026/2027?

Currently, Arctic sea ice concentration, thickness and volume are low. Combined with record high sea surface temperatures and a record strong El Niño, this could cause an Arctic Blue Ocean Event to occur around half September 2026.

Even with Arctic sea ice extent reaching a maximum around half September, as it typically does at that time of year, regrowth of Arctic sea ice comes with the danger that of sea ice sealing off the Arctic Ocean, which will mean that less heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, so more heat will remain trapped in the water underneath the sea ice, and the danger is that this will destabilize sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of large amounts of methane.

As illustrated by the image below, a peak methane level of 2696 parts per billion was recorded at 399.1 mb by the NOAA 21 satellite on September 5, 2026 PM, raising concerns that this high level originated from methane erupting from the seafloor into the shallow waters of the East Siberian Arctic Sea or the Beaufort Sea.

Furthermore, high levels of methane were recently detected in two surface flasks at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below.

Large amounts of methane could dramatically raise air temperatures in the Arctic, as discussed in a recent post.

As discussed, the impact of a Double Blue Ocean Event would be horrendous. The dire outlook for Antartci sea ice is also discussed at the Antarctica page.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

• Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilities

https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths

also discussed at https://www.facebook.com/groups/climateplan/posts/29171405979129465

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

Rising temperature

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on July 22, 2026 (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures. The amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño is on track to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

[ The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026. ]

In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.

In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the Arctic surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the danger that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

[ Arctic heating up most strongly ]

This partly explains why the temperature rise is accelerating most strongly in the Arctic. The image on the right, adapted from NASA, shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 as high as 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and result in methane releases.

[ forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

Very high temperatures are increasingly occurring at higher altitudes. The image on the right shows a forecast for August 2, 2026, of high temperatures reaching Canada, as illustrated by the image on the right.

A recent study led by Christina Schädel warns that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature, while emissions from permafrost fires and thaw are often excluded from calculations of anthropogenic emissions.

A recent Northern Hemisphere lakes study led by Jian Zhou finds that as a critical thermal threshold of mean winter air temperature gets crossed, the sensitivity of ice loss increases by up to 22-fold.

[ forecast for August 8, 2026 ]

The image on the right shows a forecast for August 8, 2026, of high temperatures hitting a large part of South Dakota, further showing that high temperatures can reach higher latitudes north.

The forecast also constitutes a warning that higher temperatures at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere come with the danger of massive thawing of Arctic permafrost, melting of Arctic sea ice and releases of large amounts of greenhouse gases.

Sea surface temperature

As temperatures at higher latitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post.

As illustrated by the image below, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.

Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C (or 91.94°F) around North America on August 2, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C, click on images to enlarge ]

The 2026 El Niño

The 2026 El Niño is on track to cause very high sea surface temperatures over the next few months.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts approach 5°C for parts of some members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts of many members partly exceed 5°C, while part of the mean approaches 5°C.

The image below shows the August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.

The combination image below shows August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecasts for Niño 1+2 region (left), the Niño 3 region (center) and the Niño 3.4 region (right).

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.59°C on August 4, 2026, 2.75°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.84°C in a span of less than 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 4, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1971-2000 on August 4, 2026. A huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.

High and rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño is still getting stronger and is on track to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow in early 2027.

Sea ice

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 4, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 4, 2026 (right).

As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice extent was 2.9 million km² lower than 1981-2010, a deviation of -4.11σ, on July 27, 2026 (highlighted in black). The year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple.

The above image shows that the 2026 global sea ice extent anomaly has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño is on track to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for both Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice, and comes with the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur.

Conclusion

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Blue Ocean Event

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds - by Jian Zhou et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610752123
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164551691999679

• Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach - by Christina Schädel et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03189-5
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163804667894679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Friday, May 15, 2026

Northern Hemisphere heating up

The global surface air temperature was 15.91°C on May 13, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 0.72°C higher than 1991-2020 (more from pre-industrial), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus.

The image below also shows the temperature through May 13, 2026, while showing a 0.74°C anomaly from 1991-2020 and a 1.01°C anomaly from 1979-2000 (and even more from a pre-industrial base).

The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.56°C on May 9, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.17°C higher than 1979-2000 (and even more from pre-industrial).

The Northern Hemisphere is now heating up rapidly:
• Seasonal change - temperatures typically reach a peak in July

• The Northern Hemisphere has more land, where temperatures reach higher levels in Summer

• The temperature rise is accelerating with feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity
• We're rapidly moving from a La Niña into an El Niño

El Niño is discussed in this earlier post and illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

A recent surface flask reading shows carbon dioxide concentration approaching 437.5 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, dated May 17, 2026.

Another reading dated May 17, 2026, shows the monthly average carbon dioxide concentration exceeding 432.5 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates a potentially strongly accelerating temperature rise on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026. Note that the anomalies in the image below are from 1901-2000 and would be higher when calculated from pre-industrial.

[ from earlier post ]

The image below uses Global Land+Ocean NASA monthly data through March 2026. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

[ from earlier post ]

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above image is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below, from an earlier post and discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]

The map below shows a forecast for December 2026 with temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic exceeding 10°C in December 2026 for the SSP5-8.5 model. This suggests strong decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. There are further contributors to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post, while SSP5-8.5 was discussed in this earlier post.

Some suggest that the IPCC should no longer consider the SSP5-8.5 model, because it had become "implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends". However, the 8.5 refers to a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100. While the cost of renewables and sales of coal have fallen, the temperature rise is accelerating and feedbacks are threatening to kick in with greater ferocity. Furthermore, the aerosol masking effect is decreasing. Additionally, as also discussed in this post and in this video posted on facebook, models subtract assumed carbon dioxide removal (CDR), despite doubts that CDR can be accomplished in the way the IPCC is suggesting. This is one of the reasons why models hang on to projections by 2100, i.e. models insist on including doubtful promises of CDR (especially after 2050) in an effort to calculate a lower temperature average for the century, in the process waving away the danger of a huge temperature rise occurring soon. Instead, it is vital to include warnings about a potentially huge temperature rise in advice to policymakers, the more so since policymakers typically look only a few years ahead.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html