Trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise

The image below shows NASA temperature anomalies for January-March 2025 versus a 1951-1980 base. 

The image below is the same, but the anomaly is more closely specified (12 colors instead of 11), adding a pink color for anomalies higher than 6°C, by Makiko Sato. This highlights the very high anomalies that occurred over the Arctic Ocean during La Niña conditions, i.e. despite suppression of the temperature.  

The image below shows NASA data through March 2025. The monthly temperature anomaly has now been more than 1.5°C higher than the 1903-1924 custom base (not pre-industrial) for 21 consecutive months (July 2023 through March 2025). Anomalies are rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at 2°C rise by the end of 2026.

On April 10, 2025, the global surface air temperature was 14.87°C (or 58.77°F), the highest temperature on record for this day. The image below shows ERA5 daily temperature anomalies from end 2022 through April 11, 2025, with two trends added, a black linear trend and a red cubic (non-linear) trend that reflects stronger feedbacks and that follows ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions more closely. This red trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

The shading added in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions that push up temperatures (pink shading), La Niña conditions that suppress temperatures (blue shading), or neutral conditions (gray shading). Meanwhile, NOAA has announced that La Niña conditions have ended, meaning that temperatures are no longer suppressed. 

Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend that shows a steady rise of 0.5°C over 3½ years (from 2023 to half 2026), a much steeper rise than the 1.1°C rise over 81 years (from 1941 to 2022) of a linear trend in an earlier image. 

The steep rise in temperatures in 2023 is also reflected in ocean temperatures. The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies through March 2025, with a very steep rise visible until August 2023 due to El Niño, followed by a fall that was only half its size, while temperature anomalies look set to rise again now that La Niña is over. The red line (two-year Lowess Smoothing) indicates a steep rise that points at a continued steep rise far beyond 2026. 

The image below shows NOAA's ENSO (Nino3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies forecast) outlook issued April 6, 2025, with rising El Niño probabilities.

     [ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

A new El Niño may emerge soon and the red curved trend warns that the temperature rise could accelerate further, rising beyond 2°C (from 1991-2020) in the course of 2026. Such acceleration could occur not only due to El Niño but also due to feedbacks and further mechanisms such as loss of sea ice. 

High ocean temperatures result in low Arctic sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image on the right and as discussed in this earlier post.

As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise may suffice to cause human extinction.

[ from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - temperature anomalies

https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - issued April 7, 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

El Nino in 2025?

The image below shows two trends that indicate that the temperature continues to rise and that the rise may accelerate soon. The black linear trend shows a rise of 0.5°C over a time span of about 3 years. The red non-linear trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise exceeding 2°C over the same period. 

The black trend is a straight line, while the non-linear trend can bend and thus follow short-term variables more closely, such as ENSO variations (El Niño/La Niña), sunspots and further mechanisms that could rapidly speed up the temperature rise in the near future.

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomalies through February 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ]

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows NOAA ENSO probabilities issued March 13, 2025. 

The image below shows that the temperature has been rising strongly recently in the Niño 3.4 area (inset). 

The potential for a huge temperature rise soon

Earth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, a new El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C. 

There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

The temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents resulting in extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration, ubiquity and area covered, and oceans taking up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. 

The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time. 

Furthermore, the impact of one mechanism can trigger stronger activity in other mechanisms. Loss of Arctic sea ice volume (above image on the right) in combination with high temperatures (image below) can trigger destabilization of hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane further speeding up the permafrost thaw. Seafloor methane alone could raise temperatures by more than 1°C very rapidly. 

The above image shows that the Northern Hemisphere reached a temperature of 11.97°C, a record daily high and about 1.5°C higher than 1979-2000. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective climate action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature 
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña through February 2025 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202502

• NOAA - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Climate Reanalyzer 

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Sunspots 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

How to respond to the threat of a huge temperature rise

The above image illustrates the threat of a huge temperature rise. The red trendline warns that the temperature could increase at a terrifying speed soon. 

Mechanisms contributing to a huge acceleration in the temperature rise

At first glance, the data may seem to disagree with such a rise, temperature anomalies even appear to have come down recently. However, a closer look at the shading in the image highlights the difference between El Niño conditions (pink shading) and La Niña conditions (blue shading). An El Niño pushes up temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. 

We're currently in a La Niña, so temperatures are suppressed, but this is predicted to end soon. NOAA predicts a transition away from La Niña to occur next month, as illustrated by the image below. 

Later this year, a new El Niño may emerge, which may push up the temperature dramatically. 

Importantly, ENSO is only one out of ten mechanisms that could jointly cause the temperature rise to accelerate dramatically in a matter of months, as described in a previous post and with further details for some of them following below. 

[ SSTA and wind, click to enlarge ]

An important mechanism driving up the temperature is rising ocean heat. The image on the right shows a sea surface temperature anomaly of 9.7°C (17.4°F) versus 1981-2011 at the green circle south of Africa on March 5, 2025.

The image also shows the impact of high sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the Jet Stream (250 hPa), with the Jet Stream going circular in two areas with high sea surface temperature anomalies.

These mechanisms interact and can also amplify each other dramatically, in particular rising ocean heat, deformation of the Jet Stream and shrinking sea ice.

[ click on image to enlarge ]

As the above compilation image shows, the Jet Stream (250 hPa) is forecast to go circular in three areas on the Northern Hemisphere and reach speeds as high as 216 km/h (134 mph, circle) over Greenland on March 11, 2025 06 UTC, pushing a lot of heat toward Baffin Bay (left panel). As a result, temperatures over Baffin Bay are forecast to be as much as 30°C higher than 1979-2000 (right panel).

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

The above image shows that Arctic sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025.  Importantly, Arctic sea ice volume has been at a record daily low for more than a year, as illustrated by the image on the right. 

There has been little to no sunshine over the Arctic over the past few months (Spring has only just started), so rising ocean heat is obviously contributing strongly to this extremely low Arctic sea ice volume. 

A recent study lead by Sohail describes how cold, fresh meltwater from Antarctica migrates north, filling the deep ocean as it goes and causing changes to the density structure of the ocean, leading to an overall slowdown in the current. 

[ from Sohail et al. (2025) ]

The above image, from the study, depicts how this could lead to reduced Antarctic Bottom Water. One danger is that less ocean heat reaching the seafloor will result in more heat accumulating at the surface and in the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. A weaker current may also allow more warm water to penetrate southwards, and faster ice melting could then lead to further weakening of the current, commencing a vicious spiral of current slowdown, says Taimoor Sohail.

As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice area has been at a record daily low since February 2025. If this situation continues, a huge amount of sunlight that was previously reflected back into space will instead be absorbed by the surface—increasingly so on the Northern Hemisphere over the coming months, with the change in seasons. 

The loss of Earth's albedo (reflectivity) over the years is illustrated by the graph below, by Eliot Jacobson.

[ Image by Eliot Jacobson ]

What to expect

Some may question whether the temperature could rise as high as depicted in the red trendline in the image at the top. Others may question whether such a huge temperature rise could occur this rapidly. They all miss the point. The point is that a huge rise may occur soon and that politicians are taking little to no action. 

As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise may suffice to cause human extinction.

A state of emergency is typically declared only after a disaster hits a specific area. Increasingly though, extreme weather events can be expected to occur more frequently and we must not only look at the intensity and severity at which one specific place is hit by an event, but we must also incorporate ubiquity and imminence in our response. As temperatures rise, more extreme weather events will occur with greater intensity, more frequently, over larger areas, with longer duration and they will become more ubiquitous and follow each other up with increasing if not accelerating rapidity.

How to repond

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - ENSO evolution and El Niño status 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Decline of Antarctic Circumpolar Current due to polar ocean freshening - by Taimoor Sohail et al. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb31c
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162412290944679

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Water Vapor Feedback

Earth's Energy Imbalance is now about four times as high as it was a decade ago, as illustrated by the above image, by Eliot Jacobson. As a result, feedbacks are starting to kick in with greater ferocity.

Water vapor feedback

One such feedback is the water vapor feedback. The temperature rise results in more evaporation, i.e. more water vapor and heat will enter the atmosphere, much of which will return to the surface in the form of precipitation, but some will remain in the atmosphere, as there will be 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming. As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water was 27.181 kg/m² in August 2024, a record high for this month.

[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]

How much more water vapor currently is in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial depends on how much the temperature has risen since pre-industrial. The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.

More ocean heat and water vapor moving to Arctic

The temperature rise also comes with stronger wind. An earlier post points at a study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.

Stronger wind speeds up ocean currents, enabling more ocean heat to move to the Arctic, while stronger wind also enables more water vapor to move to the Arctic and more rain to fall closer to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns. As a result, both heat and water vapor will increase in the Arctic. 

This will in turn further increase the temperature rise in the Arctic, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, while more water vapor also results in less hydroxyl, thus extending methane's lifetime.

The resulting temperature rise in the Arctic also reduces the snow and ice cover, further amplifying the temperature rise in the Arctic, while the temperature rise and the presence of more open water will also enable more evaporation, resulting in more water vapor in the atmosphere over the Arctic. 

High levels of methane are already present over the Arctic and the water vapor feedback makes things worse. Additionally, more ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean threatens to further destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain methane hydrates and cause even more methane to erupt, resulting in huge amounts of methane entering the atmosphere over the Arctic, from the hydrates and also from free gas underneath the hydrates.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

More water vapor and rainfall combined with higher temperatures will also cause more methane releases from lakes, wetlands and permafrost on land in the northern parts of Canada, Europe and Siberia. 

The image on the right shows a forecast by Climate Reanalyzer of high temperature anomalies in the northern parts of Europe on September 7, 2024. 

The image below shows high methane levels forecast by Copernicus at surface level in northern Europe on September 7, 2024, 03 UTC (run 00 UTC). 

As the image below shows, methane concentrations as high as 2400 parts per billion (ppb) were recently recorded at the NOAA observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska.

As Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps rising, an increasing amount of heat accumulates in oceans. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates the huge amount of heat present in the ocean around North America, with sea surface temperatures as high as 33.6°C (92.48°F) recorded on September 6, 2024. The image also shows the Gulf Stream (middle right), the Atlantic ocean current that carries heat from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean. 

The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at record high on September 4, 2024.

The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic hard, as illustrated by the image below, created with NASA content.

The temperature rise in the air is most profound at both poles, a phenomenon known as polar amplification, as illustrated by the temperature anomaly map for August 2024 below. 

[ from earlier post ]

Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean will eventually be released, committing Earth to at least some additional surface warming in the future.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise causes a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles. This impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream. 

A recent study warns about intensification of global warming due to the slowdown of the overturning circulation. The overturning circulation carries carbon dioxide and heat to the deep ocean, where it is stored and hidden from the atmosphere. As the ocean storage capacity is reduced, more carbon dioxide and heat are left in the atmosphere. This feedback accelerates global warming.

[ from earlier post ]

Warmer oceans also result in stronger stratification, which further contributes to make it harder for heat to reach the deeper parts of oceans. As a result, a larger proportion of heat that was previously entering oceans will instead remain in the atmosphere or accumulate at the ocean surface, and slowing down of the overturning circulation further contributes to this, as discussed above. 

At the same time, overall global wind strength increases as temperatures rise, and as the Jet Stream gets more deformed, this can at times strongly boost the flow of wind and water along prevailing ocean currents, wind patterns and storm tracks that carry heat toward the Poles. Furthermore, polar amplification of the temperature rise results in a relatively stronger rise in water vapor in the air over Antarctica and the Arctic. 

At times, part of this accumulated energy can, in the form of ocean heat and precipitable water, be abruptly transported to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns boosted by stronger wind and storms. This is illustrated by the above image that shows unusually high amounts of precipitable water recorded near the North Pole on September 1, 2024, at 04 UTC (20 kg/m² at the green circle). This can be further facilitated by the formation of a freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid to the Arctic Ocean. 

Temperatures remain high

Temperatures remain high, even while a transition to La Niña is expected by Sep-Nov 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024. While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, and as illustrated by the image below. The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below illustrates that, for 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has exceeded 1.2°C above 1951-1980 or (more aptly) 2°C above pre-industrial, and is rising again, even while El Niño ended April 2024.

Similarly, the image below illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures. On September 2, 2024, the temperature was 0.8°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record for that day of the year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below, created with NASA data while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months, and even more when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows the trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

A huge temperature rise could unfold by 2026, as the joint result of changes in the atmosphere, changes in surface and cloud albedo, changes in wind patterns & ocean currents, and further developments, e.g. in a cataclysmic alignment, a strong El Niño could develop in 2025 which, in combination with higher than expected sunspots, could make a difference of 0.75°C. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025. 

Sea ice disappearing fast

Sea ice is disappearing over large parts of the Arctic Ocean, including near the North Pole. 

The above compilation image shows, on the left, that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on September 5, 2024, as it has been for most of the year. On the right, an image by the University of Bremen showing sea ice concentration on September 5, 2024.

In the above compilation image, the NASA Worldview image on the left shows Arctic sea ice on September 10, 2024.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) image at the top right is from an earlier date, not yet showing the 2024 minimum, yet it does show that the minimum volume in earlier years was not as far below 5000 km³ as it was in 2024. The 2024 minimum is depicted on the DMI image on the bottom right, showing that Arctic sea ice volume was well below 5000 km³ on September 10, 2024.

In the above image the two DMI images overlap, highlighting that Arctic sea ice volume did reach a record low in 2024. 

Global sea ice extent was 21.04 million km² on September 4, 2024, a record low for the time of year, as feedbacks start kicking in with greater ferocity, including less albedo, latent heat buffer and emissivity, more water vapor, less lower clouds, Jet Stream changes, more emissions, lightning and forest fires, stronger rainfall and heatwaves causing more run-off of heat, and stronger storms that can push ocean heat toward the poles, all contributing to accelerate sea ice loss and the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]

A huge temperature rise could occur soon

As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event (starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km²), which would further speed up the temperature rise in the Arctic.

As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.

Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).

This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

Temperatures look set to rise further in the Arctic, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, as illustrated by the IPCC image below that shows how much temperatures are currently suppressed in the Arctic due to aerosols and thus also shows how much temperatures in the Arctic look set to rise as the aerosol masking effect falls away.

Furthermore, the combined impact of aerosols and nitrogen fertilizers has been underestimated; a recent study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds.

At the same time, there could be a temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning, forest fires and urban fires take place, which again would hit the Arctic hard by darkening the surface as they settle on the snow and ice cover, thus speeding up its decline.

The image below, with forecasts for September 9, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon.

The joint impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed, adding an abrupt further 8°C to the rise, and altogether, a global temperature rise could unfold of more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image further above on the right, and as also discussed at Extinction. This could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to get crossed, which means that from then on the increase in water vapor alone would suffice to keep increasing the temperature, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation could cause a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, as this study concludes and as discussed at this post.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

A 2020 study led by Jorgen Randers concludes that the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming, as self-sustained thawing of the permafrost will continue for hundreds of years, even if global society did stop all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases immediately, due to a combination of declining surface albedo (driven by decline of the Arctic snow and ice cover), increasing amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and changes in concentrations of further greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (driven by changes in sinks and sources of carbon dioxide and methane such as thawing permafrost), as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Earth Energy Imbalance - by Eliot Jacobson

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWULN7SbQAIJOCV.jpg:large

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory

https://psl.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldy
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc

• Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin - by Kathryn Gunn et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8

Discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160789326624679

• NOAA - Sea surface temperatures
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407/supplemental/page-4

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Atmosphere

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams

• NASA - Gistemp

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NASA - Worldview

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Resetting tropospheric OH and CH4 lifetime with ultraviolet H2O absorption - by Michael Prather et al. 
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adn0415
Discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161571351924679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html