Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label El Nino. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

Rising temperature

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).


The temperature in the Tropics was at a record high for the time of year on July 22, 2026 (image below).


On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year (image below). 


The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures. The amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño is on track to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

[ The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026. ]
In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.


In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the Arctic surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the danger that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

[ Arctic heating up most strongly ]
This partly explains why the temperature rise is accelerating most strongly in the Arctic. The image on the right, adapted from NASA, shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 as high as 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and result in methane releases.

[ forecast for August 2, 2026 ]
Very high temperatures are increasingly occurring at higher altitudes. The image on the right shows a forecast for August 2, 2026, of high temperatures reaching Canada, as illustrated by the image on the right.

A recent study led by Christina Schädel warns that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature, while emissions from permafrost fires and thaw are often excluded from calculations of anthropogenic emissions.

A recent Northern Hemisphere lakes study led by Jian Zhou finds that as a critical thermal threshold of mean winter air temperature gets crossed, the sensitivity of ice loss increases by up to 22-fold. 

[ forecast for August 8, 2026 ]
The image on the right shows a forecast for August 8, 2026, of high temperatures hitting a large part of South Dakota, further showing that high temperatures can reach higher latitudes north. 

The forecast also constitutes a warning that higher temperatures at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere come with the danger of massive thawing of Arctic permafrost, melting of Arctic sea ice and releases of large amounts of greenhouse gases. 

Sea surface temperature

As temperatures at higher latitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post. 

As illustrated by the image below, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.2°C on August 5, 2026, a record high temperature and 0.99°C higher than 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset bottom left) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 5, 2026.


Ocean heat is getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. 

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C (or 91.94°F) around North America on August 2, 2026. The image also illustrates geographic conditions facilitating the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic. 

[ Sea surface temperatures as high as 33.3°C, click on images to enlarge ]

The 2026 El Niño

The 2026 El Niño is on track to cause very high sea surface temperatures over the next few months. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts approach 5°C for parts of some members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).


The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts of many members partly exceed 5°C, while part of the mean approaches 5°C.


The image below shows the August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows August 1, 2026, ECMWF forecasts for Niño 1+2 region (left), the Niño 3 region (center) and the Niño 3.4 region (right).


The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.59°C on August 4, 2026, 2.75°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.84°C in a span of less than 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on August 4, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1971-2000 on August 4, 2026. A huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.


High and rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño is still getting stronger and is on track to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow in early 2027.

Sea ice

The combination image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 4, 2026 (left), and Arctic sea ice thickness on August 4, 2026 (right).


As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice extent was 2.9 million km² lower than 1981-2010, a deviation of -4.11σ, on July 27, 2026 (highlighted in black). The year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple. 


The above image shows that the 2026 global sea ice extent anomaly has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño is on track to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for both Arctic sea ice and Antarctic sea ice, and comes with the danger that a Double Blue Ocean Event will occur. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Blue Ocean Event

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds - by Jian Zhou et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610752123
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164551691999679

• Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach - by Christina Schädel et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03189-5
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163804667894679 
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Friday, May 15, 2026

Northern Hemisphere heating up

The global surface air temperature was 15.91°C on May 13, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 0.72°C higher than 1991-2020 (more from pre-industrial), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. 


The image below also shows the temperature through May 13, 2026, while showing a 0.74°C anomaly from 1991-2020 and a 1.01°C anomaly from 1979-2000 (and even more from a pre-industrial base). 


The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.56°C on May 9, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.17°C higher than 1979-2000 (and even more from pre-industrial).


The Northern Hemisphere is now heating up rapidly: 
• Seasonal change - temperatures typically reach a peak in July
• The Northern Hemisphere has more land, where temperatures reach higher levels in Summer 
• The temperature rise is accelerating with feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity
• We're rapidly moving from a La Niña into an El Niño 

El Niño is discussed in this earlier post and illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ from earlier post ]
Greenhouse gas concentrations

A recent surface flask reading shows carbon dioxide concentration approaching 437.5 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, dated May 17, 2026.


Another reading dated May 17, 2026, shows the monthly average carbon dioxide concentration exceeding 432.5 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.


Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates a potentially strongly accelerating temperature rise on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026. Note that the anomalies in the image below are from 1901-2000 and would be higher when calculated from pre-industrial. 

[ from earlier post ]
The image below uses Global Land+Ocean NASA monthly data through March 2026. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.
[ from earlier post ]
How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above image is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below, from an earlier post and discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The map below shows a forecast for December 2026 with temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic exceeding 10°C in December 2026 for the SSP5-8.5 model. This suggests strong decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. There are further contributors to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post, while SSP5-8.5 was discussed in this earlier post.
Some suggest that the IPCC should no longer consider the SSP5-8.5 model, because it had become "implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends". However, the 8.5 refers to a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100. While the cost of renewables and sales of coal have fallen, the temperature rise is accelerating and feedbacks are threatening to kick in with greater ferocity. Furthermore, the aerosol masking effect is decreasing. Additionally, as also discussed in this post and in this video posted on facebook, models subtract assumed carbon dioxide removal (CDR), despite doubts that CDR can be accomplished in the way the IPCC is suggesting. This is one of the reasons why models hang on to projections by 2100, i.e. models insist on including doubtful promises of CDR (especially after 2050) in an effort to calculate a lower temperature average for the century, in the process waving away the danger of a huge temperature rise occurring soon. Instead, it is vital to include warnings about a potentially huge temperature rise in advice to policymakers, the more so since policymakers typically look only a few years ahead.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links


• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf







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Friday, May 1, 2026

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may be gone within ten months

Arctic sea ice has been several times at a record low for the time of year in terms of both extent, area and volume, e.g. on April 24, 2026, on May 7, 2026, and on May 8, 2026, as discussed further below. The upcoming El Niño looks set to trigger dramatic loss of sea ice and associated feedbacks, resulting in loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026 and Antarctic sea ice in February 2027. 

El Niño

Earlier posts have warned that the upcoming El Niño could contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño threatens to become a monster within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development), with forecasts exceeding 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows an anomaly forecast update for May 15, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and exceeding 3.5°C for part of the mean. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño could be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and with a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 


The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino 3.4 region over the years from the start of the year to June. On April 30, the 2026 SST (red line) was higher than the 2016 SST (thick grey line). From January 9, 2026, through April 30, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region has risen by 3.15°C.


The image below shows a NOAA update 14 May 2026 update of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) strength probabilities based on ERSSTv5 Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperatures. 


The image below shows a May 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left. 


Forecasts for each of the four NINO regions are added in the combination image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months, in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.


Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months. 

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on May 8, 2026.


Arctic sea ice area was 10.75 million km² on May 8, 2026 (black), the lowest area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.19σ, as illustrated by the image below. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice area in 2012 (record low year), which was 0.99 million km² higher on May 7, 2012 (11.74 million km²). 

The combination image below shows images adapted from nullschool and NSIDC with sea surface temperatures on the left and sea ice concentration on the right on May 8, 2026.


The combination image below shows images adapted from Uni of Bremen with Arctic sea ice concentration on the left and Arctic sea ice thickness on the right on May 8, 2026.


The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 14, 2026, as it has been for years. 


The April 2026 Arctic sea ice volume was about 18,500 km³ (as illustrated by the image on the right), which is very close to the magenta bar which stands for strong melting (18,000 km³) from the annual maximum volume. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through April 2026, with the strength of the melting between the annual maximum (blue circle) and the annual minimum (red circle) highlighted by colored bars, magenta for strong melting (18,000 km³) and green for little melting (15,000 km³). 

Last year, only about 15,000 km³ of sea ice melted away from the maximum in 2025 to the minimum in September 2025, and this relatively little melting can be attributed in part to La Niña conditions.

The April 2026 volume was about 18,500 km³, so if strong melting (18,000 km³) will take place over the next few months (dashed magenta line), as can be expected with a super El Niño coming up, a Blue Ocean Event will occur and virtually all Arctic sea ice volume will be gone in September 2026. 


Feedbacks, thresholds and tipping points

Sea ice loss comes many feedbacks and there is interaction between feedbacks. As an example, sea ice decline comes with both loss of albedo (Feedback #1) and loss of the latent heat buffer (Feedback #14), each of which will accelerate the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, thus contributing to the threat that hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean will be destabilized, which in turn threatens to cause eruption of huge amounts of methane (Feedback #16), which will further drive up the temperature in the Arctic and cause stronger melting of terrestrial permafrost.

A further danger lies in changes occurring to wind and ocean current patterns; the temperature rise will cause stronger wind, waves and storms, as well as deformation of the Jet Stream (Feedback #19). In addition, the temperature rise causes loss of reflectivity of clouds (Feedback #25) and more ocean stratification (Feedback #29), exacerbated by more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation. In the North Atlantic, there is the additional danger that formation of a freshwater lid (Feedback #28) will cause huge amounts of ocean heat to be pushed into the Arctic Ocean and enter the atmosphere as sea ice disappears.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post. The image illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks increasing and accelerating the temperature rise (the yellow horizontal bar), and of thresholds and tipping points causing the temperature rise to jump up a step when crossed.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]
Feedback numbers correspond with the list at the feedbacks page. Some of them are discussed below.

Feedback #1: albedo loss (loss of reflectivity) as sea ice melts due to rising temperatures and due to the ice getting covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

Feedback #14: loss of the latent heat buffer - as sea ice disappears, heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting, and the heat will instead go into increasing the temperature;

Feedback #16: eruptions of seafloor methane - as more heat reaches the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, sediments and hydrates contained in them destabilize, resulting in methane releases. Vast amounts of methane are held in hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Miesner et al. (2023) warn that 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. (2024) warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years. By comparison, the atmosphere contains about 5 Gt of methane. The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates the threat of thinning of Arctic sea ice resulting in increased ocean heat and methane eruptions.
[ The Buffer is gone ]
Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice;

Feedback #23: open oceans hold more far-infrared energy than sea ice, resulting in warmer oceans, stronger melting of sea ice, with a study showing a 2°C rise in the polar climate after a 25-year run;

Feedback #25: extra water vapor feedback - rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), further amplifying the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas;

Feedback #28: freshwater lid on the North Atlantic - melting of sea ice and glaciers and thawing of the permafrost results in meltwater accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, where it forms a cold freshwater lid on top of the water; this lid grows further due to more rain falling on top of this lid. This results in less evaporation and transfer of heat from the North Atlantic to the atmosphere, and more ocean heat getting carried by the Gulf Stream underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean;

Feedback #30: The clouds feedback reduces the reflectivity of lower clouds and comes with a tipping point at 1200 CO₂e that, when crossed, causes the temperature rise to increase by an abrupt 8°C. Such a high CO₂e could be reached due to eruption of methane from the seafloor, as discussed in an earlier post and as illustrated by the image below. 

[ from Clouds Tipping Point ]
Ominously, the forecast for August 2026 below shows very high sea surface temperature anomalies for the Arctic Ocean, which spells bad news for Arctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in September. 


Antarctic sea ice

Could a Double Blue Ocean Event occur in 2026/2027? The global sea ice area anomaly (versus 1981-2010) was the second lowest on record for the time of year on May 11, 2026 (black line), as illustrated by the image below. Also highlighted are 2016, 2023 and 2024 (purple lines).  


The above image shows that the global sea ice area anomaly reached a record low in November 2016 (purple line, bottom right), a year when there was a super El Niño—very worrying, since the 2026 El Niño threatens to be even stronger than the 2016 El Niño. The lowest annual area anomaly on record actually was the year 2025 (blue line), which makes the situation even more worrying, since 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image below), so much of the record low global sea area anomaly in the year 2025 can be attributed to the recent acceleration in global temperatures. 


Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February. As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called.
[ image from earlier post ]
   [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ]
What caused the 2023 Antarctic sea ice loss? Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.

A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.

An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.

The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The post describes that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

The post warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

Ominously, the forecast below for January 2027 shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February, as mentioned above. 

[ Sea surface temperature anomaly - click on images to enlarge ]
Temperature rise

On May 6, 2026, a record high sea surface temperature was recorded for that day, tiered with May 6, 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 


On May 8, 2026, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.53°C, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.13°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The image below also shows that the annual highest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are typically reached in July and that very high anomalies were recorded in July in the three previous years, i.e. in 2023, 2024 and 2025 (orange), even though the year 2025 was mostly a La Niña year (see image further above). 


The image below shows NASA Land-Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) updated through April 2026.

The above image indicates that anomalies (versus 1880-1890) have been high since 2021, i.e. the rise in temperature has been at or above 1.5°C for each month since 2021 (black squares connected by the black lines). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the temperature rise accelerated in 2022 and crossed 2°C in 2022, while the trend further indicates that 3°C may get crossed soon on land (where most people live), in 2029 if this trend continues (linear dashed red extension) or even earlier if the trend's rise accelerates further (as illustrated by the image below with a polynomial trend).

The image below illustrates that the upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows land-only data in the Northern Hemisphere through March 2026, with a polynomial trend added that points at 3°C crossed later in 2026. About 0.5°C of the rise can be attributed to El Niño, with further contributions from feedbacks and further forcers. Note that the 1901-2000 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base.

The image below, from an earlier post, uses NASA monthly data through March 2023. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

The image below is a 2025 update, the same adjustments are made to data through April 2025.


The image below is a 2026 update, the same adjustments are made to data through March 2026.


While the above images indicate that we have dodged a few bullets, we keep playing Russian roulette and keep pulling the same clathrate gun's trigger until one day the bullet will be in the chamber. Note also that we've been in a La Niña and that a monster El Niño is on the way.

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above images is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The images show that, when adjusting the data and using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature rise may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged shouldn't and wouldn't be crossed.

Human extinction

In 2022, the IPCC said that limiting warming to 2°C would require global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest. As discussed in an earlier post, it looks like emissions didn't peak in 2025 and we're on track for a 3°C rise, yet the IPCC refuses to warn people about how dire the situation is, despite mounting indications that humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise in temperature.

An earlier post pictures where we area: As the likeliness of a huge and accelerating temperature rise, the severity of its impact, and the ubiquity and the imminence with which it will strike all become more apparent and manifest—the more sobering it is to realize that a mere 3°C rise will likely suffice to cause human extinction.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. What does this mean for humans? Terrestrial vertebrates are more in danger than many other species, since they depend on numerous other species for food. Humans are terrestrial vertebrates and humans are also large warm-blooded mammals with high metabolic rates, thus requiring more habitat. It also takes a long time for humans to reach maturity. Additionally, humans have become addicted to processed food, fossil fuels, plastic, etc. Furthermore, humans require large amounts of fresh water, including for sweating when temperatures rise. 

A 2016 study led by F. Alice Cang finds projected climate change by 2070 to be consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. As discussed in this post on facebook, a recent analysis led by Nicolas Gauthier confirms the 2016 study findings, adding that grasses include staples, such as rice, maize, wheat, and barley, which now provide the majority of the global human caloric intake. Among these vital crops, domesticated Asian rice serves as a primary food source for over half the global population. 

As discussed in an earlier post, temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapid warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, as a recent study points out.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 18, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - ENSO strength probabilities - Update May 14, 2026

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder 
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification - by Aditya Narayanan et al.
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164227571539679

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164124732849679

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Projected warming will exceed the long-term thermal limits of rice cultivation - by Nicolas Gauthier et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-03108-0





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