Showing posts with label sea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sea. Show all posts

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Sea surface temperatures and El Niño

The upcoming El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 6, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceed 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 6, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approaching 4°C for part of the mean. 


The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America), where a rise of more than 4°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to more than +2.5°C in the bottom image) occurred within six months through June 12, 2026.


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño regions this high indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño. 

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time and has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 


The image below shows the June 1, 2026, ECMWF forecast for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.


The combination image below shows June 1, 2026, ECMWF orecasts for each of the four Niño regions.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

High sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Ocean on May 22, 2026. 


The above image highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 22, 2026, in three areas: 5.3°C off the coast of South America, 4.6°C off the coast of California and 5.4°C off the coast of Asia.

The image below highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 29, 2026, in four areas: 7.2°C off the coast of France, 8.1°C off the coast of Asia, 5.3°C off the coast of South America, and 6.3°C off the coast of South Africa.


As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of subsurface ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


The image below shows that on June 5, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies on June 5, 2026, with the Niño3.4 region highlighted. On June 5, 2026, the sea surface temperature in Nino3.4 was 29.27°C, a jump of 3.52°C from the 25.75°C on January 9, 2026, in a span of less than 5 months.


SST were higher only when a super El Niño developed in November 2015, as marked on the above image. Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record, as discussed in an earlier post. 

On June 4, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (inset also shows anomalies) was 20.98°C, the highest temperature on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 


Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). Note that there were La Niña conditions earlier in 2026, which suppressed temperatures, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year. In the remainder of 2026, El Niño conditions are likely to be dominant, elevating temperatures. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

As illustrated by the image below, a temperature of 52.1°C or 125.7°F was forecast in Pakistan on May 28, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.


SSP5-8.5 scenario

In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, radiative forcing is projected to increase to 8.5 W/m² by 2100. Below are the IPCC projections for CO₂ concentration and temperature change for the SSP5-8.5 scenario.


The image below shows the CO₂ concentration over the last 31 days at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The hand points at a daily CO₂ concentration of 433.95 parts per million (ppm) recorded on May 1, 2026.


Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Rising temperatures are threatening to cause dramatic loss in sea ice. Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.

The animation below shows the sea ice at the northern tip of Greenland, from June 3 through 8, 2026. 


The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance and in ocean heat is outpacing SPSS5-8.5, as illustrated by the combination image below, by Leon Simons.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.06 million km² on June 6, 2026 (black), 2nd lowest extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.94σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice extent in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice extent in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño. Arctic sea ice extent can be expected to soon reach record low extent for the time of year as temperatures rise with the upcoming El Niño.

The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on June 10, 2026, as it has been for years. 


As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice extent was 22.27 million km² on June 6, 2026, second lowest global extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -4.56σ. Highlighted in black is 2026, highlighted in purple is 2023 and highlighted in blue is 2025, until now the record low year for global sea ice extent.


The map below shows an update of an earlier forecast for November 2026 with temperature anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean at the top of the scale (13°C), adapted from tropicaltidbits.com.


These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean suggests strong sea ice decline, with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, coming with huge albedo changes and loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise. There are further developments that can contribute to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post.


The map above, from an earlier post, and the map below show forecasts for December 2026 and January 2027, respectively, with temperature anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean exceeding 10°C, based on SSP5-8.5 or what used to be called the "worst-case scenario". 


Ominously, the forecast for January 2027 below, from an earlier post and adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February. 


Is SSP5-8.5 the "worst-case" scenario?

The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario pointing at a temperature rise of 1.661°C in February 2025, of 4.388°C in February 2083 and of 5.163°C in February 2100, when using a 1901-2000 base (temperatures will be higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used).

SSP5-8.5
The map below, from an earlier post, shows the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 rise versus 1881-1920 in February 2100. The map shows that the temperature rise in areas on land (where most people live) could be as much as 8°C higher in Feb 2100 in the SSP585 model.


The map warns that temperatures over large parts of the Arctic may be more than 20°C higher than 1881-1920 in February 2100. This would suggest that by 2100 the snow and ice cover in the Arctic will have declined dramatically and that huge amounts of greenhouse gases will likely have been released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. 

The CMIP6 emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) did not fully include the potential impact of bad climate policy and of feedbacks such as seafloor methane eruptions and loss of lower clouds. For "even-worse-than-SSP5-8.5" scenarios, have a look at the potential for a global temperature rise of more than 20°C by 2050 discussed in this 2013 post and the potential for a 18.44°C rise by the end of 2026 discussed in this recent post. 

The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections, e.g. data from Copernicus' Methane Hotspot Explorer shows that the largest methane emission event in October 2024 occurred from an urban landfill in Kazakhstan, while the top seven methane emission events included landfills, oil and coal, but not natural gas operations, as illustrated by the image below. 


Temperatures have risen due to human activities over thousands of years. Over the years, the focus of these activities has shifted four times and a fifth shift is coming up.
1. Moving away from hunting and gathering toward herding animals and agriculture.
2. Moving to cities, where people found work in factories (the Industrial Revolution).
3. Rising urban services and infrastructure, commuters to and from sprawling suburbs.
4. Avoiding damaging the climate and environment, with a focus on electrifying energy. 
5. A focus on transforming society through renewal of cities, land use and infrastructure. 


The fourth shift is highlighted by the UN's adoption of a resolution that calls on all UN Member States to take all possible steps to avoid causing significant damage to the climate and environment, including emissions produced within their borders, and to follow through on their existing climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. This sends a strong message that tackling the climate crisis is a legal duty under international law, and not just a political choice. The resolution also calls for the UN Secretary-General to submit a report in 2027 on ways to advance compliance with the obligations identified in the International Court of Justice advisory opinion.

The Climate Plan group discusses the fifth shift, i.e transforming society while highlighting the importance of a formal declaration of a climate emergency to raise awareness and to help overcome obstacles that could delay the necessary climate action, with a climate emergency declared globally and with implementation of climate action preferably decided locally provided it is in line with best-available science.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• nullschool.net

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion, Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction, statement issued 14 May 2026 

• ECMWF - The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• IPCC Assessment Report 6 Workgroup 1 Chapter 4 - Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information 
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter04.pdf

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• NASA - Worldview 
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Leon Simons - rise in ocean heat and Earth Energy Imbalance 
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mloc6c4bas2v

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html




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Friday, May 15, 2026

Northern Hemisphere heating up

The global surface air temperature was 15.91°C on May 13, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 0.72°C higher than 1991-2020 (more from pre-industrial), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. 


The image below also shows the temperature through May 13, 2026, while showing a 0.74°C anomaly from 1991-2020 and a 1.01°C anomaly from 1979-2000 (and even more from a pre-industrial base). 


The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.56°C on May 9, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.17°C higher than 1979-2000 (and even more from pre-industrial).


The Northern Hemisphere is now heating up rapidly: 
• Seasonal change - temperatures typically reach a peak in July
• The Northern Hemisphere has more land, where temperatures reach higher levels in Summer 
• The temperature rise is accelerating with feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity
• We're rapidly moving from a La Niña into an El Niño 

El Niño is discussed in this earlier post and illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ from earlier post ]
Greenhouse gas concentrations

A recent surface flask reading shows carbon dioxide concentration approaching 437.5 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, dated May 17, 2026.


Another reading dated May 17, 2026, shows the monthly average carbon dioxide concentration exceeding 432.5 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.


Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates a potentially strongly accelerating temperature rise on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026. Note that the anomalies in the image below are from 1901-2000 and would be higher when calculated from pre-industrial. 

[ from earlier post ]
The image below uses Global Land+Ocean NASA monthly data through March 2026. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.
[ from earlier post ]
How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above image is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below, from an earlier post and discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]
The map below shows a forecast for December 2026 with temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic exceeding 10°C in December 2026 for the SSP5-8.5 model. This suggests strong decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. There are further contributors to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post, while SSP5-8.5 was discussed in this earlier post.
Some suggest that the IPCC should no longer consider the SSP5-8.5 model, because it had become "implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends". However, the 8.5 refers to a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100. While the cost of renewables and sales of coal have fallen, the temperature rise is accelerating and feedbacks are threatening to kick in with greater ferocity. Furthermore, the aerosol masking effect is decreasing. Additionally, as also discussed in this post and in this video posted on facebook, models subtract assumed carbon dioxide removal (CDR), despite doubts that CDR can be accomplished in the way the IPCC is suggesting. This is one of the reasons why models hang on to projections by 2100, i.e. models insist on including doubtful promises of CDR (especially after 2050) in an effort to calculate a lower temperature average for the century, in the process waving away the danger of a huge temperature rise occurring soon. Instead, it is vital to include warnings about a potentially huge temperature rise in advice to policymakers, the more so since policymakers typically look only a few years ahead.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links


• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf







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Monday, June 28, 2021

Heatwaves and the danger of the Arctic Ocean heating up

 Heatwaves and Jet Stream Changes

Heatwaves are increasingly hitting higher latitudes, as illustrated by the forecasts below. The background behind this is that the temperature rise caused by people's emissions is also causing changes to the jet streams. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

These changes to the Jet Stream are increasingly creating conditions for heatwaves to strike at very high latitudes, as also illustrated by the images on the right.

The first image on the right shows that surface temperatures as high as 48°C or 118.3°F are forecast in the State of Washington for June 30, 2021, at 01:00 UTC, at a latitude of 46.25°N. At the same time, even higher temperatures are forecast nearby at 1000 hPa level (temperatures as high as 119.4°C or 48.6°C). 

The next two images on the right show what happened to the jet stream. One image shows instantaneous wind power density at 250 hPa, i.e. at an altitude where the jet stream circumnavigates the globe, on June 26, 2021 at 11:00 UTC. The image features two green circles. The top green circle marks a location where the jet stream is quite forceful and reaches a speed of 273 km/h or 170 mph. The bottom green circle marks the same location where the 48°C is forecast on June 30, 2021. This shows how heat has been able to move north from as early as June 26, 2021.

The next image on the right shows the situation on June 30, 2021, 04:00 UTC, illustrating how such a jet stream pattern can remain in place (blocked) for several days (in this case for more than five days). The green circle again marks the same location where the 48°C is forecast (in the top image on the right).

This illustrates how a more wavy jet stream can enable high temperatures to rise to higher latitudes, while holding a pattern in place for several days, thus pushing up temperatures over time in the area.  

As said, these changes in the jet stream that are enabling hot air to rise up to high latitudes are caused by global warming. Accelerating warming in the Arctic is causing the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator to narrow, which in turn is making the jet stream more wavy.

The next image on the right shows that a UV index reading as high as 12 (extreme) is forecast for a location at 51.56°N in Washington for June 28, 2021, illustrating that such an extreme level of UV can occur at high latitudes, due to changes in the jet stream.

Accelerated Warming in the Arctic


As the temperature rise is accelerating due to people's emissions, it is speeding up more in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth. 

The Arctic is heating up faster than elsewhere, as numerous feedbacks and tipping points are hitting the Arctic, including:

• Albedo loss goes hand in hand with decline of the snow and ice cover. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of the surface. Albedo is higher as more sunlight is reflected back upward and less energy is getting absorbed at the surface. Albedo decline can occur as snow and ice disappears and the underlying darker soil and rock becomes exposed. Even when the snow and ice cover remains extensive, its reflectivity can decline, due to cracks and holes in the ice, due to formation of melt ponds on top of the ice and due to changes in texture (melting snow and ice reflects less light). Calving of the ice can take place where warmer water can reach it, and such calving can increase as storms strengthen and waves get larger.

• Furthermore, albedo loss can occur as dust, soot and organic compounds that are caused by human activities get deposited on the snow and ice cover, reducing the reflectivity of the surface. Organic compounds and nutrients in meltwater pools can lead to rapid growth of algae, especially at times of high insolation.

• Latent heat loss. As sea ice gets thinner, ever less ocean heat gets consumed in the process of melting the subsurface ice, to the point where - as long as air temperatures are still low enough - there still is a thin layer of ice at the surface that will still consume some heat below the surface, but that at the same time acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere.

• Wind changes including changes to the Jet Stream can further amplify the temperature rise in the Arctic. As the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, the Jet Stream becomes more wavy, spreading out widely at times. The changes to the jet stream cause more extreme weather, including heatwaves, forest fires, storms, flooding, etc. This can cause more aerosols to get deposited on the snow and ice cover. Stronger wind and storms over the North Atlantic can also speed up the flow of warm water into the Arctic Ocean.

Albedo loss, latent heat loss and changes to wind patterns can dramatically amplify the temperature rise in the Arctic. The temperature of the Arctic Ocean is rising accordingly, while there are a number of developments and events that specifically speed up the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed below.


Arctic Ocean heating up

The temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean is rising, due to a number of events and developments:
                 [ from the insolation page ]
  • Solstice occurred on June 21, 2021. The Arctic is now receiving huge amounts of sunlight (see image on the right, from the insolation page).

  • Sea surface temperatures and temperatures on land are very high in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. Strong winds can spread warm air over the Arctic Ocean.

  • Arctic sea ice extent is low for the time of year, but at this stage, there still is a lot of sea ice present (compared to September). The sea ice acts as a seal, preventing ocean heat from entering the atmosphere, resulting in more heat remaining in the Arctic Ocean.

[ Lena River, Siberia ]

  • Warm water from rivers is flowing into the Arctic Ocean, carrying further heat into the Arctic Ocean. Above image shows that on June 23, 2021, sea surface temperatures were 22.3°C or 72.2°F at a spot where water from the Lena River flows into the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows that at a nearby location the sea surface temperature was 20°C or 36°F higher than 1981-2011. 

  • Warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean is flowing into the Arctic Ocean and the amount of ocean heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean is rising each year.

  • As mentioned above, latent heat loss is contributing to the rapid temperature rise in the Arctic. The remaining sea ice acts as a buffer, consuming ocean heat from below. Sea ice is getting thinner each year, so ever less ocean heat can get consumed in the process of melting the sea ice from below.

  • Changes to the jet stream can also cause strong storms to dramatically speed up the amount of heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as discussed at the Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic page.

The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean

The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean is that it can cause destabilization of hydrates at its seafloor, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

In conclusion, changes to the jet stream could cause a huge temperature rise soon, while a 3°C rise could cause humans to go extinct, which is a daunting prospect. Even so, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

• Insolation

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• Could temperatures keep rising?

• Latent Heat


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