The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on February 17, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange.
Loss of Antarctic sea ice can result in strong loss of global albedo, due to the size of Antarctic sea ice and its proximity to the Equator.
Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for well over a year. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through February 18, 2026.
Until now, Arctic sea ice volume for each day in 2026 has been lower than on comparable days for any previous year on record. The 2026 curve (black) is moving down, steeper than it did in 2024 (dark blue), even though an El Niño started early 2024 and continued until early 2025 (light blue). Arctic temperatures are terrifying and some temperature forecasts are horrendous (images below). Arctic temperatures have been rising, despite the move from an El Niño into the current La Niña over the past few years. Making the outlook even more dire, an El Niño is on the way.
The next El Niño
The images on the right and below are adapted from NOAA. The image on the right shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. The image below shows that La Niña conditions have been present for most periods (18 out of 19) dating back to the May-June-July 2024 period.
The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.
The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).
Temperature anomalies have long been high in the Arctic. The image below shows rising annual Arctic temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980, with a peak occurring in 2016, which was a strong El Niño year, while temperatures have been rising over the past few years despite the move from an El Niño into the current La Niña.
The IPCC also seeks to downplay the dangers by manipulating the rise to come, e.g. by using linear trends. The image below shows NASA Land-Only temperature anomalies with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) from 2022 through January 2026. The 1.5°C threshold has been crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares connected by black lines). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed since 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed soon on land (where most people live), i.e. in 2029 if this trend continues (dashed extension).
The extension in the above image is a linear extension, but acceleration implies that alternative trends are more appropriate, such as polynomial trends. The image below shows 15 years of NASA temperature anomalies (land-only) compared to 1880-1920 with a quartic trend added that points at the 3°C threshold getting crossed in 2027.
The inset with the pink/white canvas on the image below shows ERA5 global surface air temperature daily anomalies in °C versus 1991-2020 through February 11, 2026, with a polynomial trend added highlighting temperature variations in line with seasons, El Niño/La Niña, feedbacks, etc. The background image with the yellow canvas shows the same data and added trend on a larger canvas, with the trend pointing at a rise of 10°C in January 2027.
Conversely, methane can also strongly contribute to a huge rise in temperature. Both the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios required methane emissions to have fallen since 2015. Even for SSP2-4.5, in which 2°C does get crossed, methane emissions would need to fall. After record growth in methane concentration in 2021 and there was a bit of a slowdown in the following years. However, growth in methane concentration has picked up pace again recently, as illustrated by the image below.
The magenta-colored trend in the image below points at methane more than doubling by 2043.
As the EPA animation on the right illustrates, a relatively small rise in average temperature can result in a lot more hot and extremely hot weather.
The three images underneath, from the IPCC, show the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature.
Another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging out peak impact, i.e. the most destructive impact. Averaging out peaks can be done by looking at large areas with a low resolution. As an example, land-only temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. Since most people live on land, it's crucial to report the full temperature peaks on land, rather than the global average.
As discussed above, the next El Niño may take off from a temperature 0.5°C higher than where El Niño developed in 2023. The image below, by Leon Simons, shows Earth's Energy Imbalance through December 2025 when it reached +1.4 W/m², as discussed on facebook.
Climate Emergency Declaration
Links
• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
image discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163809174829679
• NOAA - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI): Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163817526189679
• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) - Niño Plumes
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10163819996829679
set 2:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/?multi_permalinks=10163853533389679
• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis
Until now, Arctic sea ice volume for each day in 2026 has been lower than on comparable days for any previous year on record. The 2026 curve (black) is moving down, steeper than it did in 2024 (dark blue), even though an El Niño started early 2024 and continued until early 2025 (light blue). Arctic temperatures are terrifying and some temperature forecasts are horrendous (images below). Arctic temperatures have been rising, despite the move from an El Niño into the current La Niña over the past few years. Making the outlook even more dire, an El Niño is on the way.
The next El Niño
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.
The images on the right and below are adapted from NOAA. The image on the right shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. The image below shows that La Niña conditions have been present for most periods (18 out of 19) dating back to the May-June-July 2024 period.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.
The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.
The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).
IPCC keeps downplaying Arctic temperature anomaly
The image below shows a horrendous temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for November 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.
The image below shows a horrendous temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for November 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.
Sadly, the IPCC keeps downplaying the dangers and it does so in many ways. One way the full wrath of temperature rise is all too often masked is by using a too recent base from which the temperature rise is calculated, and then pretending that it was pre-industrial. Pre-historic obviously and by definition refers to times before the Industrial Revolution started, yet the IPCC seeks to downplay the dangers of crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds by using a more recent base, adding that it "approximates" pre-industrial, as if that would excuse the downplaying. Obviously, a higher historic rise comes with stronger feedbacks, e.g. more water vapor in the atmosphere.
Then, there's the masking of the acceleration in the temperature rise. As illustrated by the Eliot Jacobson image below, which uses a 3-year running mean, the temperature has meanwhile crossed the 1.5°C threshold and reached 1.53°C even when using an 1850-1900 base, while there clearly is acceleration in the temperature rise.
Then, there's the masking of the acceleration in the temperature rise. As illustrated by the Eliot Jacobson image below, which uses a 3-year running mean, the temperature has meanwhile crossed the 1.5°C threshold and reached 1.53°C even when using an 1850-1900 base, while there clearly is acceleration in the temperature rise.
The image below shows the ERA5 January 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, hitting the Arctic particularly hard.
The image below shows the NASA January 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, with the highest anomalies showing up over the Arctic, due to sea ice loss and increasingly extreme weather events resulting from distortion of the Jet Stream, which also contributed to low temperatures in parts of the U.S. and Russia. Feedbacks in the Arctic and the horrendous rise of Arctic temperatures is all too often masked by a focus on long-term global averages.
The extension in the above image is a linear extension, but acceleration implies that alternative trends are more appropriate, such as polynomial trends. The image below shows 15 years of NASA temperature anomalies (land-only) compared to 1880-1920 with a quartic trend added that points at the 3°C threshold getting crossed in 2027.
The trend in the above image points at 3°C getting crossed and this 3°C is an important threshold. Humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise, so the canvas in the above image is limited to 3°C. For a rise beyond 3°C, see the image below and the Extinction page and the image below.
The inset with the pink/white canvas on the image below shows ERA5 global surface air temperature daily anomalies in °C versus 1991-2020 through February 11, 2026, with a polynomial trend added highlighting temperature variations in line with seasons, El Niño/La Niña, feedbacks, etc. The background image with the yellow canvas shows the same data and added trend on a larger canvas, with the trend pointing at a rise of 10°C in January 2027.
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| [ click on images to enlarge, this image is also discussed on facebook ] |
Methane Menace
Methane has a strong impact on temperatures, due to its high Global Warming Potential (GWP), and there are many calls for strong action on methane, as Paul Beckwith discusses in the video below.
 |
| [ from earlier post ] |
The magenta-colored trend in the image below points at methane more than doubling by 2043.
The above text and images describe and depict horrendous dangers, and the IPCC has yet to respond. Methane is only one of the contributors to what could be a horrific rise in temperature in the Arctic.
Averaging the problems away
The three images underneath, from the IPCC, show the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature.Another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging out peak impact, i.e. the most destructive impact. Averaging out peaks can be done by looking at large areas with a low resolution. As an example, land-only temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. Since most people live on land, it's crucial to report the full temperature peaks on land, rather than the global average.
Yet another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging the temperature rise out over long periods of time. How can the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement best be measured? Is a threshold deemed to be crossed when the anomaly from pre-industrial crosses the threshold for a month, or for a year, or for a decade?
Averaging out over a long period can be used to downplay the dangers in efforts to effectively grant polluters a long grace period during which they can continue to pollute.
Averaging out over a long period can be used to downplay the dangers in efforts to effectively grant polluters a long grace period during which they can continue to pollute.
Uncertainty is often pointed at as an excuse to downplay the dangers, but even in case there is uncertainty, downplaying the dangers constitutes a violation of the crucial precautionary principle, as illustrated by the cartoon below.
 |
| An engineer building a bridge will calculate the load it must handle by looking at how many heavy trucks could be on the bridge simultaneously (PEAK traffic), rather than by averaging the weight of all vehicles crossing the bridge over 30 years. Caption and image by Sam Carana, image is from earlier post. |
Will life soon disappear?
 |
| [ from earlier post ] |
The image on the right uses content from a study by Christina Schädel et al, which concludes that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature from a 389-691 Gt pool of permafrost carbon.
That 63 Gt C would translate into 231 Gt CO₂ if only CO₂ gets released. By comparison, the total annual human emissions are now about 55 Gt CO₂e and NOAA calculates that the atmosphere has changed from 1750 to 2024 by 539 CO₂e due to people's greenhouse gas emissions.
Importantly, some of the carbon will be released in the form of methane and CO₂e is much higher for releases in the form of methane than for carbon dioxide, especially when a high multiplier is used to calculate methane's CO₂e. Even worse, releases from submarine permafrost would come mostly in the form of methane.
Importantly, some of the carbon will be released in the form of methane and CO₂e is much higher for releases in the form of methane than for carbon dioxide, especially when a high multiplier is used to calculate methane's CO₂e. Even worse, releases from submarine permafrost would come mostly in the form of methane.
The danger is even more menacing when looking at how fast temperatures are rising in the Arctic and when including more feedbacks, i.e. not only the impact of permafrost fires and permafrost thaw, but also the impact of destabilizing sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, on top of the impact of albedo loss and loss of the latent heat buffer of declining sea ice and permafrost.
The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows a 36-running average for Earth's albedo through December 2025.
The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows a 36-running average for Earth's albedo through December 2025.
As discussed above, the next El Niño may take off from a temperature 0.5°C higher than where El Niño developed in 2023. The image below, by Leon Simons, shows Earth's Energy Imbalance through December 2025 when it reached +1.4 W/m², as discussed on facebook.
As discussed, drawing linear trends can be used to downplay the danger and to mask recent or near-future acceleration that may also strengthen over the years. Moreover, crossing tripping points can result in huge abrupt changes. A recent study warns about States and financial bodies using modelling that ignores shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points.
Warnings are further illustrated by the image below that features a gradually accelerating decline in biodiversity (red line) and infrastructure growth over time followed by imminent and abrupt infrastructure decline (grey line). The image warns that a false focus can cause imminent or ongoing collapse to be ignored.
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| [ click on images to enlarge, image is discussed on facebook ] |
Ultimately, economic projections fail because they focus on money, global GDP, and similar constructs, ignoring the damage occurring to the soil, water, atmosphere and the very conditions that sustain life. Increasingly unlivable conditions result from a failure to correct this false focus, or rather from a refusal to accept that what's really important is disappearing—indeed life itself is disappearing before our own eyes.
In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses problems forests have in adapting to rising temperatures, illustrating the dangers.
Indeed, temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapidly warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, a recent study points out. Also, adding biochar to the soil may help, but there currently isn't much government support, support that should preferably come in the form of local feebates.
The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.
Links
• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
image discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163809174829679
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (pdf)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163809174829679
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163809174829679
• NOAA - ENSO Alert System Status (pdf)
• NOAA - ENSO Alert System Status
• NOAA - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI): Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163817526189679
• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) - Niño Plumes
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10163819996829679
set 2:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/?multi_permalinks=10163853533389679
• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis
• When Will We Die?
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Copernicus ERA5 data
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
• Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales - by David Fastovich et al.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163832954534679
• Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts - by Michael Van Nuland et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308811121
discussed on facebook at:
• Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts - by Michael Van Nuland et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308811121
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163832955574679
• Science Snippets: Linking Plants with Soil - video by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TNxF9o2aTk
• Biochar - group on facebook
• Science Snippets: Linking Plants with Soil - video by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TNxF9o2aTk
• Biochar - group on facebook
https://www.facebook.com/groups/biochar
• Greenhouse gas rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/01/greenhouse-gas-rising.html
• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
• Greenhouse gas rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/01/greenhouse-gas-rising.html
• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
