Heads in the clouds while Earth is burning

Changes in clouds 

The high impact that changes in clouds have on the global temperature is becoming more and more clear as more scientific studies appear. Nonetheless, many people keep their heads in the clouds and act as if nothing is changing. 

[ James Hasen et al. Earth’s albedo (reflectivity, in percent), seasonality removed ]

[ James Hansen: Inferred contributions
to reduced Earth albedo ]

There are many reasons for this apathy. Loss of albedo due to loss of lower clouds, loss of sea ice and loss of the aerosol masking effect are all concepts that can be hard to grasp. As an example, the aerosol masking effect is getting progressively reduced, e.g. due to tightening shipping emissions regulations. The image above and on the right are by Hansen et al. 

For the average person, many effects of the temperature rise are also hard to notice, such as stronger ocean stratification and stronger wind. 

Feedbacks can be complex, e.g. decline of Arctic snow and ice comes with albedo loss as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, while Arctic amplification of the temperature rise can lead to changes in ocean currents and deformation of the Jet Stream. Compound impacts threaten to occur, such as formation of a lid at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean enabling more heat to move to the Arctic Ocean, in turn causing huge amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor, thus further contributing to the danger that the 1,200 ppm CO₂e cloud tipping point will get crossed that causes an extra 8°C rise, which this 2019 post warned about.

It is hard to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, while there also is a lag between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their maximum impact and a “lag time” between climate action and an actual decrease in CO₂ levels, due to transient growth as a result of delayed feedback. “It’s like trying to slow down an enormous train – you can’t stop it all at once, there will be a delay between applying the brakes and the train coming to a halt. And in talking about CO₂ levels, this could have catastrophic consequences,” explains Mahommad Farazmand, warning that even if CO₂ emissions decreased, transient growth would still push the climate into a tipping point, resulting in a temperature increase of 6°C.

One of the biggest causes why climate action is delayed, if not sabotaged, is the way climate change is or rather isn't reported in the media. In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the analysis by Hansen et al.

Further below, this post looks at two conditions that enable loss of lower clouds, i.e. high concentrations of greenhouse gases that result in higher temperatures and loss of sea ice. 

High concentrations of greenhouse gases

Daily CO₂ concentrations have been below 430 parts per million (ppm) only once over the past 31 days at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, which shows CO₂ through May 20, 2025. The image also shows one recent hourly measurement approaching 440 ppm (arrow).

A daily CO₂ concentration of 431.25 ppm was recorded on May 10, 2025, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the highest daily average on record. One has to go back millions of years in time to find CO₂ concentrations this high, while the impact of high CO₂ concentrations back in history was lower due to lower solar output and while the rate of change was also much slower, as also discussed in an earlier post.

The image below shows monthly CO₂ concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 

High concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to high temperatures and the temperature rise itself comes with many feedbacks including more water vapor in the atmosphere, loss of sea ice and loss of lower clouds. 

In the image below, a value of 430 ppm CO₂ has been manually added as a potential value for 2025 (blue circle), but this value is not included in the calculation of the trend, which is based only on 2019 through 2024 data (red circles). The trend points at the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in 2030. Crossing this tipping point could - on its own - push temperatures up by 8°C globally, in addition to the temperature rise caused by the extra CO₂ to reach the tipping point.

Moreover, the clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so when taking into account the impact of growth of other greenhouse gases and further mechanisms, the tipping point could be crossed much earlier than in 2030. The clouds tipping point is also discussed in the section at the end of this post. 

Temperature

The image below illustrates that air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have been very high for the past few months, at times reaching record high temperatures for the time of year, e.g. the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 10.08°C on May 14, 2025, the highest temperature on record for that day.

These record high temperatures are the more significant as they were reached under ENSO-neutral conditions, as illustrated by the image below. On May 20, 2025, the sea surface temperature was 27.65°C, 0.19°C below 1991-2020, in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño. 

Loss of sea ice

One feedback of high temperatures and high concentrations of greenhouse gases is loss of sea ice. Polar amplification of the temperature rise is hitting the Arctic hard, and is also causing dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice. Global sea ice area has been very low for the past few years, as illustrated by the image below. This has caused a lot of sunlight that was previously reflected back into space, to instead get absorbed by the sea surface. On May 20, 2025, global sea ice area was 17.6 million km², lowest on record for the day. 

Over the past few days, Arctic sea ice area has been second lowest for the time of year, Arctic sea ice area was only lower around this time of year in 2016, a strong El Niño year, as illustrated by the image below.

The above image also shows that Arctic sea ice area around this time of year was much lower than it was in 2012, the year when Arctic sea ice would reach a record low later that year (2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012). 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right is adapted from NASA and shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 of up to almost 4°C. The image also shows that the Arctic is heating up much faster than the rest of the world, a phenomenon also known as accelerated Arctic temperature rise.

The next image on the right illustrates how two of these feedbacks contribute to the accelerated Arctic temperature rise:

[ Two out of numerous feedbacks ]

Feedback #1: albedo loss as sea ice melts away and as it gets covered by soot, dust, algae, meltpools and rainwater pools;

Feedback #19: distortion of the Jet Stream as the temperature difference narrows between the Arctic and the Tropics, in turn causing further feedbacks to kick in stronger, such as hot air moving into the Arctic and cold air moving out, and more extreme weather events bringing heavier rain and more intense heatwaves, droughts and forest fires that cause black carbon to settle on the sea ice.

Arctic sea ice volume has been at a record low for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

Loss of sea ice and loss of lower clouds are self-amplifying feedbacks, i.e. as temperatures rise, there is loss that accelerates the temperature rise, which in turn causes even more loss, etc. Due to this self-amplification, the temperature rise can accelerate. For more, also have a look at the Feedback section of this 2024 post, the Feedbacks page, and the section below. 

Loss of lower clouds

A 2024 study led by Norman Loeb finds that large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing absorbed solar radiation trends in the northern hemisphere.

For years studies have pointed at the danger that, as temperatures rise, the rise itself can cause a reduction in lower clouds. Since lower clouds reflect a lot of sunlight back into space, their decrease is in turn pushing up and accelerating the temperature rise.

Earlier studies include this 2015 study, this 2017 study and this 2022 study. The image below is from a 2021 study led by Goode that warns that warming oceans cause fewer bright clouds to reflect sunlight back into space, resulting in the Earth's surface absorbing more energy instead. 

The image below shows the Pattern Effect, illustrating the danger that oceans are becoming less able to take up heat, thus leaving more heat in the atmosphere, which will in turn result in loss of lower clouds. 

The white band around -60° (South) indicates that the Southern Ocean has not yet caught up with global warming, featuring low-level clouds that reflect a lot of sunlight back into space. Over time, these low clouds will decrease, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed by the Earth's surface and causing  additional global warming. A 2021 study led by Zhou finds that, after this 'pattern effect' is accounted for, committed global warming at present-day forcing rises by 0.7°C.

The combination image below is from a 2022 study led by Barkhordarian. Forcing by elevated well-mixed GHG levels has virtually certainly caused the multiyear persistent 2019–2021 marine heatwave. The warming pool is marked by concurrent and pronounced increase in annual mean, and variance of SSTs (Figure below left) and decrease in cold-season low-cloud’s cooling effect. EUMETSAT satellite data shows a 5% decade⁻¹ decreasing trend in cold-season cloud cover during 1995–2018 (Figure below right). Low-cloud cover reduction is the major contribution to the observed decline in total cloud fraction, resulting in decreases of winter-time low-cloud’s cooling effect.

What makes loss of lower clouds so dangerous is that it can continue, even if emissions remain constant. So, where loss of sea ice continues while emissions remain constant, the temperature can keep rising, and as the temperature rise results in further loss of lower clouds, this will accelerating the temperature rise.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]

The above image also illustrates how the temperature of the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions, due to shrinking of heat sinks, such as loss of sea ice thickness or oceans taking up less heat, or as certain thresholds or tipping points get crossed.  

Clouds Tipping Point

The clouds tipping point refers to abrupt disappearance of lower clouds, more specifically the stratocumulus decks. Stratus cloud decks cover about 20% of subtropical oceans and are prevalent in the eastern portions of those oceans—for example, off the coasts of California or Peru. The clouds cool and shade Earth as they reflect the sunlight that hits them back into space. Tapio Schneider et al. (2019) calculate that these clouds begin to break up when carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) levels rise above the tipping point of 1,200 ppm.

Disappearance of these clouds will make the temperatures go up strongly and rather abruptly. By the time CO₂e levels will have risen to this clouds tipping point of 1,200 ppm CO₂e, temperatures will already have gone up a lot in line with the warming from rising CO₂e levels and feedbacks. On top of this, the clouds feedback itself triggers an additional surface warming of some 8°C globally, which is a tipping point and once crossed, it's very hard to revert, i.e. CO₂e would have to fall by a huge amount for lower clouds to reappear. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as also discussed at this group.

Links

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. (2023)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

• Large Cloud Feedback Confirms High Climate Sensitivity - by James Hansen et al. (2025)

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/CloudFeedback.13May2025.pdf

• Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission - by Katharine Ricke et al. (2014) 
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002

• News release: Time Lag Between Intervention and Actual CO2 Decrease Could Still Lead to Climate Tipping Point (2021)
https://news.ncsu.edu/2021/12/time-lag-could-still-lead-to-climate-tipping-point
• Study: Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model - by Alexander Mendez et al. (2021)
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2021.0697
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159745007124679

• NOAA - Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - Mauna Loa - Carbon Cycle Gases 

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000 - by Norman Loeb et al. (2024) 
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8

discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161449934634679

• Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors - by Xin Qu et al. (2015)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2015GL065627

• Interpretation of Factors Controlling Low Cloud Cover and Low Cloud Feedback Using a Unified Predictive Index - by Hideaki Kawai et al. (2017)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/22/jcli-d-16-0825.1.xml

• Estimated cloud-top entrainment index explains positive low-cloud-cover feedback - by Tsuyoshi Koshiro et al. (2022)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2200635119

• News release: Earth is dimming due to climate change 
Warming oceans cause fewer bright clouds to reflect sunlight into space, admitting even more energy into earth's climate system
https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-is-dimming-due-to-climate-change
• Study: Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine - by Philip Goode et al. (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094888
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159604016414679

• NASA - zonal means
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means

• News release: Paying for emissions we’ve already released
https://www.llnl.gov/news/paying-emissions-weve-already-released
• Study: Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect - by Chen Zhou et al. (2021)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159009753799679
and at:
https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10164808484750161
and in the post at:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html

• News release: Systematic warming pool discovered in the Pacific due to human activities
https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/about-cliccs/news/2022-news/2022-06-21-pm-marine-heat-waves.html
• Study: Recent marine heatwaves in the North Pacific warming pool can be attributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases - by Armineh Barkhordarian et al. (2022)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00461-2
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160085259739679

and in the post at: 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/05/will-there-be-arctic-sea-ice-left-in-september-2023.html

Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming - by Tapio Schneider et al. (2019)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Water Vapor Feedback

Earth's Energy Imbalance is now about four times as high as it was a decade ago, as illustrated by the above image, by Eliot Jacobson. As a result, feedbacks are starting to kick in with greater ferocity.

Water vapor feedback

One such feedback is the water vapor feedback. The temperature rise results in more evaporation, i.e. more water vapor and heat will enter the atmosphere, much of which will return to the surface in the form of precipitation, but some will remain in the atmosphere, as there will be 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming. As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water was 27.181 kg/m² in August 2024, a record high for this month.

[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]

How much more water vapor currently is in the atmosphere compared to pre-industrial depends on how much the temperature has risen since pre-industrial. The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.

More ocean heat and water vapor moving to Arctic

The temperature rise also comes with stronger wind. An earlier post points at a study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.

Stronger wind speeds up ocean currents, enabling more ocean heat to move to the Arctic, while stronger wind also enables more water vapor to move to the Arctic and more rain to fall closer to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns. As a result, both heat and water vapor will increase in the Arctic. 

This will in turn further increase the temperature rise in the Arctic, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, while more water vapor also results in less hydroxyl, thus extending methane's lifetime.

The resulting temperature rise in the Arctic also reduces the snow and ice cover, further amplifying the temperature rise in the Arctic, while the temperature rise and the presence of more open water will also enable more evaporation, resulting in more water vapor in the atmosphere over the Arctic. 

High levels of methane are already present over the Arctic and the water vapor feedback makes things worse. Additionally, more ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean threatens to further destabilize sediments at the seafloor that contain methane hydrates and cause even more methane to erupt, resulting in huge amounts of methane entering the atmosphere over the Arctic, from the hydrates and also from free gas underneath the hydrates.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

More water vapor and rainfall combined with higher temperatures will also cause more methane releases from lakes, wetlands and permafrost on land in the northern parts of Canada, Europe and Siberia. 

The image on the right shows a forecast by Climate Reanalyzer of high temperature anomalies in the northern parts of Europe on September 7, 2024. 

The image below shows high methane levels forecast by Copernicus at surface level in northern Europe on September 7, 2024, 03 UTC (run 00 UTC). 

As the image below shows, methane concentrations as high as 2400 parts per billion (ppb) were recently recorded at the NOAA observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska.

As Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps rising, an increasing amount of heat accumulates in oceans. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates the huge amount of heat present in the ocean around North America, with sea surface temperatures as high as 33.6°C (92.48°F) recorded on September 6, 2024. The image also shows the Gulf Stream (middle right), the Atlantic ocean current that carries heat from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean. 

The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at record high on September 4, 2024.

The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic hard, as illustrated by the image below, created with NASA content.

The temperature rise in the air is most profound at both poles, a phenomenon known as polar amplification, as illustrated by the temperature anomaly map for August 2024 below. 

[ from earlier post ]

Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean will eventually be released, committing Earth to at least some additional surface warming in the future.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise causes a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles. This impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream. 

A recent study warns about intensification of global warming due to the slowdown of the overturning circulation. The overturning circulation carries carbon dioxide and heat to the deep ocean, where it is stored and hidden from the atmosphere. As the ocean storage capacity is reduced, more carbon dioxide and heat are left in the atmosphere. This feedback accelerates global warming.

[ from earlier post ]

Warmer oceans also result in stronger stratification, which further contributes to make it harder for heat to reach the deeper parts of oceans. As a result, a larger proportion of heat that was previously entering oceans will instead remain in the atmosphere or accumulate at the ocean surface, and slowing down of the overturning circulation further contributes to this, as discussed above. 

At the same time, overall global wind strength increases as temperatures rise, and as the Jet Stream gets more deformed, this can at times strongly boost the flow of wind and water along prevailing ocean currents, wind patterns and storm tracks that carry heat toward the Poles. Furthermore, polar amplification of the temperature rise results in a relatively stronger rise in water vapor in the air over Antarctica and the Arctic. 

At times, part of this accumulated energy can, in the form of ocean heat and precipitable water, be abruptly transported to the Arctic, along the path of prevailing ocean currents and wind patterns boosted by stronger wind and storms. This is illustrated by the above image that shows unusually high amounts of precipitable water recorded near the North Pole on September 1, 2024, at 04 UTC (20 kg/m² at the green circle). This can be further facilitated by the formation of a freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic that enables more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid to the Arctic Ocean. 

Temperatures remain high

Temperatures remain high, even while a transition to La Niña is expected by Sep-Nov 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

The image below, from an earlier post and adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024. While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, and as illustrated by the image below. The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below illustrates that, for 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has exceeded 1.2°C above 1951-1980 or (more aptly) 2°C above pre-industrial, and is rising again, even while El Niño ended April 2024.

Similarly, the image below illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures. On September 2, 2024, the temperature was 0.8°C above 1991-2020, the highest anomaly on record for that day of the year.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below, created with NASA data while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months, and even more when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows the trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

A huge temperature rise could unfold by 2026, as the joint result of changes in the atmosphere, changes in surface and cloud albedo, changes in wind patterns & ocean currents, and further developments, e.g. in a cataclysmic alignment, a strong El Niño could develop in 2025 which, in combination with higher than expected sunspots, could make a difference of 0.75°C. Sunspots are expected to reach a peak in the current cycle in July 2025. 

Sea ice disappearing fast

Sea ice is disappearing over large parts of the Arctic Ocean, including near the North Pole. 

The above compilation image shows, on the left, that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on September 5, 2024, as it has been for most of the year. On the right, an image by the University of Bremen showing sea ice concentration on September 5, 2024.

In the above compilation image, the NASA Worldview image on the left shows Arctic sea ice on September 10, 2024.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) image at the top right is from an earlier date, not yet showing the 2024 minimum, yet it does show that the minimum volume in earlier years was not as far below 5000 km³ as it was in 2024. The 2024 minimum is depicted on the DMI image on the bottom right, showing that Arctic sea ice volume was well below 5000 km³ on September 10, 2024.

In the above image the two DMI images overlap, highlighting that Arctic sea ice volume did reach a record low in 2024. 

Global sea ice extent was 21.04 million km² on September 4, 2024, a record low for the time of year, as feedbacks start kicking in with greater ferocity, including less albedo, latent heat buffer and emissivity, more water vapor, less lower clouds, Jet Stream changes, more emissions, lightning and forest fires, stronger rainfall and heatwaves causing more run-off of heat, and stronger storms that can push ocean heat toward the poles, all contributing to accelerate sea ice loss and the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]

A huge temperature rise could occur soon

As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event (starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km²), which would further speed up the temperature rise in the Arctic.

As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.

Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).

This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

Temperatures look set to rise further in the Arctic, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, as illustrated by the IPCC image below that shows how much temperatures are currently suppressed in the Arctic due to aerosols and thus also shows how much temperatures in the Arctic look set to rise as the aerosol masking effect falls away.

Furthermore, the combined impact of aerosols and nitrogen fertilizers has been underestimated; a recent study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds.

At the same time, there could be a temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning, forest fires and urban fires take place, which again would hit the Arctic hard by darkening the surface as they settle on the snow and ice cover, thus speeding up its decline.

The image below, with forecasts for September 9, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon.

The joint impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed, adding an abrupt further 8°C to the rise, and altogether, a global temperature rise could unfold of more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image further above on the right, and as also discussed at Extinction. This could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to get crossed, which means that from then on the increase in water vapor alone would suffice to keep increasing the temperature, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation could cause a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, as this study concludes and as discussed at this post.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

A 2020 study led by Jorgen Randers concludes that the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming, as self-sustained thawing of the permafrost will continue for hundreds of years, even if global society did stop all emissions of man-made greenhouse gases immediately, due to a combination of declining surface albedo (driven by decline of the Arctic snow and ice cover), increasing amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and changes in concentrations of further greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (driven by changes in sinks and sources of carbon dioxide and methane such as thawing permafrost), as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Earth Energy Imbalance - by Eliot Jacobson

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWULN7SbQAIJOCV.jpg:large

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory

https://psl.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/cataclysmic-alignment-threatens-climate-catastrophe.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldy
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc

• Recent reduced abyssal overturning and ventilation in the Australian Antarctic Basin - by Kathryn Gunn et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01667-8

Discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160789326624679

• NOAA - Sea surface temperatures
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202407/supplemental/page-4

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Atmosphere

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams

• NASA - Gistemp

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NASA - Worldview

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Resetting tropospheric OH and CH4 lifetime with ultraviolet H2O absorption - by Michael Prather et al. 
https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.adn0415
Discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161571351924679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Temperature rise - September 2023 and beyond

The above image, adapted from NASA and the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using the same baseline, illustrate the September 2023 temperature anomaly.

September 2023 was the month with the highest temperature anomaly on record. What contributed to this?

El Niño
 

The temperature rose about 0.5°C from November 2022 to March 2023, and this occurred at a time when we were not even in an El Niño yet, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post. Below is an updated image, from January 1950 to September 2023, adapted from NOAA

[ click on images to enlarge ]

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The current El Niño is still strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from IRI.

Further contributors

There are further reasons why the temperature can be expected to keep rising beyond September 2023.

The number of sunspots has been higher than predicted and looks set to keep rising above predicted levels until July 2025, as discussed here.

The eruption of the submarine volcano near Tonga in January 2022 caused a lot of water vapor to reach high up into the atmosphere and this may still contribute to the temperature rise, as discussed here.

Aerosols that have a cooling effect, such as dust and sulfates (SO₄), are also important. As fossil fuel is burned, sulfates are co-emitted. Since they pollute the air, measures have been taken and are being taken to reduce them, e.g. in shipping, and this has pushed up the temperature rise. Meanwhile, cooling aerosols such as sulfates are still high. As illustrated by the image below, adapted from nullschool.net, SO₄ was as high as 8.621 τ at the green circle on October 6, 2023, at 07:00 UTC. In future, SO₄ could fall dramatically, e.g. in case of a sudden economic collapse, reducing the aerosol masking effect rapidly and abruptly causing a substantial rise in temperature.

After little change in the Antarctic sea ice extent graph for decades, extent loss was dramatic in 2022 and even more dramatic in 2023, as less and less sunlight was getting reflected back into space and instead was getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC.

Sea ice retreat comes with loss of albedo, i.e. loss of the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, resulting in more heat getting absorbed in the Southern Ocean, making it a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Clouds constitute another self-reinforcing feedback loop; a warmer Southern Ocean comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as a recent study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page). 

The above image was created by Zach Labe with NSIDC data (Arctic + Antarctic) for each year from 1979 to 2023 (satellite-era; NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS). The image illustrates that global sea ice extent  recently reached the largest anomaly in the satellite record. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a climatological baseline of 1981-2010. 2016 is shown with a yellow line. 2023 is shown using a red line (updated 10/16/2023).

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the importance of loss of sea ice at around -60° (South).

As said, there are many factors behind the temperature increase around latitude -60° (South). As Paul mentions, this latitude receives a lot of sunlight around the year. Therefore, it is not surprising that, as oceans continue to heat up, there is huge loss of sea ice at this latitude, as well as loss of lower clouds, while open oceans are additionally less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum. The image below, adapted from NASA, shows a white band around -60° (South), indicating that the Southern Ocean has long been colder there than elsewhere, but has recently started to catch up with the global temperature rise.

The above image also illustrates that anomalies are highest in the Arctic, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics, with the air flow slowing down accordingly. 

[ image adapted from Copernicus ]

This in turn changes the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, resulting in blocking patterns that can, in combination with rising temperatures, strongly increase the frequency, intensity, duration and area coverage of extreme weather events such as storms and lightning, heatwaves and forest fires.

Forest fires in Canada have been releasing massive amounts of emissions that push up the temperature, including greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, warming aerosols such as black carbon & brown carbon and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic carbon) and carbon monoxide that reduce the availability of hydroxyl, resulting in more methane and ozone in the atmosphere. 

[ NH sea surface temperature anomaly ]

At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Current (AMOC) can result in more ocean heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

As temperatures rise, increased meltwater runoff from Greenland and more icebergs moving south, in combination with stronger ocean stratification and stronger storms over the North Atlantic, can also cause a freshwater lid to form at the surface of North Atlantic that can at times enable a lot of hot water to get pushed abruptly underneath this lid toward the Arctic Ocean. The danger is that more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic ocean. 

Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

The next few months will be critical as Arctic sea ice is sealing off the Arctic Ocean from the atmosphere, trapping heat underneath the ice and making it harder for ocean heat to get transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere above the Arctic. Furthermore, sea ice is very thin, reducing the latent heat buffer that could otherwise have consumed ocean heat. 

The next danger is that the thin Arctic sea ice will rapidly retreat early next year as a warming Arctic Ocean will transfer more heat to the atmosphere over the Arctic, resulting in more rain and more clouds in the atmosphere over the Arctic, speeding up sea ice loss and further pushing up the temperature rise over the Arctic, as discussed at the feedbacks page, which also discusses how less Arctic sea ice can push up temperatures through the emissivity feedback. As temperatures rise over the Arctic, permafrost on land also threatens to thaw faster, threatening to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. 

Meanwhile, emissions of greenhouse gases keep rising, further pushing up the temperature, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

  

[ Global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2000-2022, adapted from EIA ]

In the video below, Guy McPherson describes how temperature rise, loss of habitat and meltdown of nuclear power facilities each could result in rapid extinction of humans and many other species.

There are numerous further feedbacks that can accelerate the temperature rise and tipping points that can get crossed and cause even more abrupt rise of the temperature. One of these is the clouds tipping point that in itself can cause a temperature rise of 8°C, as discussed here.

Further feedbacks are also discussed at the Extinction page.  One further feedback is water vapor. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, at a rate of 7% for each Degree Celsius the temperature rises. As temperatures keep rising, ever more water vapor will be sucked up by the atmosphere. This will also cause more droughts, reducing the ability of land to sustain vegetation and provide soil cooling through shading and through evaporation and formation of lower clouds, as discussed here. More water vapor in the atmosphere will also speed up the temperature rise because water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.

The fact that such tipping points and feedbacks occur as greenhouse gas levels reach certain levels and as the temperature rise makes it critical to assess how fast greenhouse gas levels could rise and by how much the temperature has already risen. 

NASA data up through September 2023

The image below, adapted from NASA, shows that the September 2023 NASA Land+Ocean temperature was 1.78°C higher than it was in September 1923. The anomaly is 1.74°C when compared to a base centered around the year 1900 (1885-1915). The 1.74°C anomaly can be adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, air temperature and higher polar anomalies (as shown in the box on the bottom right of the image), adding up to a potential anomaly of 2.73°C. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Indeed, earlier analysis such as discussed here, points out that the temperature may already have risen by more than 2°C (compared to pre-industrial) in 2015, when politicians pledged at the Paris Agreement to take action to combat the temperature rise to prevent this from happening. 

Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Sep.2023 data. 

Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan.2010-Sep.2023 data.

The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1885-1915, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base, and has trends added.  

Alarms bells have been sounding loud and clear for a long time, as discussed in posts such as this one, warning that the temperature could rise by more than 3°C by 2026. The above magenta graph shows how this could occur as early as next year (end 2024).

[ image from earlier post ]

[ image from the Extinction page ]

The above image illustrates the latent heat tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1°C above the long term average (1901-1930 on the above image) - to get crossed and the seafloor methane tipping point - estimated to correspond with a sea surface temperature anomaly of 1.35°C - to get reached, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one, .

A Blue Ocean Event could occur as the latent heat and seafloor methane tipping points get crossed, and the ocean temperature keeps rising, as huge amounts of methane get released in the Arctic, as ever more heat keeps reaching and destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Seafloor methane is one of many elements that could jointly cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Conclusion

The precautionary principle should prevail and the looming dangers should prompt people into demanding comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation. 

To combat rising temperatures, a transformation of society should be undertaken, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with a declaration of a climate emergency.

Links

• NASA - global maps

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps

• NOAA - ENSO and Temperature bars

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202309/supplemental/page-4

• The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

• Nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• NSIDC - sea ice graph

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Zach Labe - Global sea ice - extent, concentration, etc.

https://zacklabe.com/global-sea-ice-extent-conc

• NASA - zonal means

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/zonal_means

• Copernicus - Northern Hemisphere wildfires: A summer of extremes
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/northern-hemisphere-wildfires-summer-extremes

• NOAA - Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Paul Beckwith - Accelerated Global Warming from Antarctic Sea Ice Collapse: Albedo, Latitude, Snow Cover on Ice…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5P1W4TrczQ

• Guy McPherson - College of Complexes Presentation (with Improved Audio) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oWe84cT5g

• NASA custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• Transforming Society

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html