Carbon dioxide highest in millions of years

Greenhouse gas concentrations

The highest daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration recorded by the Keeling Curve, maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at Mauna Loa Observatory, was 432.81 parts per million (ppm), recorded on April 1, 2026. The image below shows CO₂ over thousands of years. 

The image below shows that the highest daily average CO₂ concentration recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 432.69 ppm, recorded on March 31, 2026 (yellow circle on the right). The image also shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged CO₂ values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. The inset on the right shows recent daily averages.

The image below shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on March 22, 2026, was 430.93 ppm (red line top right). NOAA's CO₂ average daily concentrations were at a record high of 432.69 ppm, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 31, 2026.

To find CO₂ levels this high back in history, one needs to go back millions of years, as illustrated by the two images below, from an earlier post.


What makes current conditions even more dire is that not only are concentrations of CO₂ extremely high (without match going back millions of years) and rising, but the speed at which CO₂ is currently rising is also unprecedented, while additionally there has been an increase in total solar irradiance of ∼400 Wm⁻² since the formation of the Earth. The image below shows the combined climate forcing by changing CO₂ and solar output for the past 450 million years.

Between 14 and 15 million years ago, the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as illustrated by the image below (adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Given today's extremely high CO₂ levels, why is the temperature in central Europe not 20°C higher today? The answer is that - for now - most of the extra heat trapped by the extremely high (and rising) greenhouse gas levels doesn't stay in the atmosphere, but is absorbed by oceans, by land, and in the process of melting ice. However, the capacity for oceans, land and ice to keep taking up more heat appears to be reducing fast, as described in more detail further below. 

Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 432.81 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see earlier post) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation. There are many feedbacks and further contributors to acceleration of the temperature rise that could add up to a rise of more than 20°C by the end of 2026, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Earth energy imbalance

Outgoing longwave radiation is reducing due to rising greenhouse gases, resulting in an increasingly larger amount of extra energy. The image below depicts Earth energy imbalance.  

According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.  

[ image by Leon Simons ]

Not only is the extra energy increasing, as depicted by the above image, but the proportions of where the extra energy is going is additionally changing. 

The ocean's capacity to act as an energy buffer is increasingly compromised by stratification, changes to ocean currents, changes in salinity, ocean oxygen depletion, acidification and more, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. This is a big issue, since oceans take up 91% of the extra heat caused by greenhouse gases, so if there is even a 1% reduction in the heat taken up by oceans, the heat remaining in the atmosphere may double.  

Furthermore, the capacity for ice to act as a buffer by consuming energy in the process of melting is increasingly compromised by sea ice decline, by retreat of glaciers, and by darkening of ice due to dust, algae, black carbon and more. Arctic sea ice is facing a Blue Ocean Event with sea ice decline threatening to both dramatically lower albedo and reduce the ability for ocean heat to be consumed in the process of melting.  Mountain glaciers are also in decline and permafrost is approaching the point where thawing of permafrost will speed up rapidly, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

The capacity for land to take up heat also faces a tipping point: The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration, i.e. from all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration, including transpiration from vegetation, evaporation from the soil surface, from the capillary fringe of the groundwater table, and from water bodies on land. Once this tipping point gets crossed, the land and atmosphere will heat up strongly, due to the extra heat, i.e. heat that was previously consumed by evaporation and thawing, as described at this page.

So, while the extra energy is increasing, as depicted by the above image, the capacity of oceans, land and ice to take up energy is decreasing and an increasingly large amount of extra heat therefore threatens to accumulate in the atmosphere, especially in the Northern Hemisphere over land and in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising faster than anywhere in the world.

Methane

Ominously, a peak methane level of 2690 ppb was recorded at 487.2 mb by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 31, 2026 AM, as illustrated by the image below. 

Could the Northern Hemisphere land-only temperature rise exceed 3°C soon?

The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel. 

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook here ]

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on April 5, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Keeling Curve - by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego 
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• NOAA - Office of satellite and product operations - HEAP NUCAPS
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - by Julia Marks-Peterson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10032-yand

• Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years - by Sarah Shackleton et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10116-3
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164017885199679

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-2026-el-nino-update-march-2026.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Daily carbon dioxide crosses 430 ppm

[ Temperature anomaly through February 2025 ]

The above image shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 20 consecutive months (July 2023 through February 2025).

The temperature anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).


As the above image shows, the February 2025 temperature anomalies were particularly high over the Arctic, as high as 11.7°C and reflecting very high temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. This is a very dangerous situation, as discussed elsewhere in this post. 

The image below confirms the very high Arctic temperature anomalies in February 2025. 

The image below illustrates the threat of a huge temperature rise. The red trend warns that the temperature could increase at a terrifying speed soon. The global surface air temperature was 13.87°C on March 8, 2025, the highest temperature on record for this day. This is the more remarkable since this record high temperature was reached during a La Niña. 

The shading in the above image highlights the difference between El Niño conditions (pink shading) and La Niña conditions (blue shading). An El Niño pushes up temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. We're currently in a La Niña, so temperatures are suppressed, but this is predicted to end soon. NOAA predicts a transition away from La Niña to occur next month.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño is only one out of ten mechanisms that could jointly cause the temperature rise to accelerate dramatically in a matter of months, as described in a previous post. Another one of these mechanisms is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. 

Increase in carbon dioxide 

The daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 430.60 parts per million (ppm) on March 7, 2025, the highest daily average on record. To find higher levels, one needs to go back millions of years. 

Carbon dioxide typically reaches its annual maximum in May, which means that even higher daily averages can be expected over the next few months. The image below shows that this reading of 430.6 ppm at Mauna Loa is way higher than the highest daily averages recorded in 2024. 

 

The image below shows the daily average for March 7, 2025, marked in blue and with an arrow pointing at it. The image shows that weekly averages are also at a record high, 428.1 ppm, higher than the highest weekly average in 2024. The monthly average for February 2025 was 427.09 ppm, higher than the highest monthly average in 2024. 

The annual increase in CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, is accelerating, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

A trend, based on 2015-2024 annual data, points at 1200 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in the year 2032, as illustrated by the image below.

[ from an earlier post ]

The above trend illustrates that the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2032 due to rising CO₂ alone, which on its own could push temperatures up by an additional 8°C. The clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e, so when growth of other greenhouse gases and further mechanisms is taken into account, the tipping point could be crossed much earlier than in 2033.

Increase in methane

Methane in the atmosphere could be doubled soon if a trend unfolds as depicted in the image below. A rapid rise is highlighted in the inset and reflected in the trend. 

[ from earlier post ]

The trend is based on 22 consecutive global monthly averages as calculated by NOAA (from January 2023 through October 2024) and has a R-squared value of 1, indicating that the trend constitutes a perfect fit of the data.

The period of 22 months was selected as the resulting trend strongly reflects the steep rise in methane that took place over the four most recent months for which data are available (as highlighted in the inset on the image). One could argue that seasonal variations could reduce the growth over the coming months, but on the other hand, a huge rise in methane could occur soon due to eruptions of methane from clathrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The trend points at a doubling of methane by March 2026. If the trend would continue, methane concentrations in the atmosphere would by September 2026 increase to more than triple the most recent value, and would increase to more than fourfold the most recent value by the end of 2026.

A rise like the one depicted in the trend could eventuate as rising ocean heat destabilizes methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The temperature rise in the Arctic would accelerate since the methane would have a huge immediate impact on temperatures over the Arctic and cause depletion of hydroxyl, of which there is very little in the atmosphere over the Arctic in the first place. Such a rise in methane would also dramatically increases in tropospheric ozone and in stratospheric water vapor. A large increase in methane over the Arctic would also trigger massive wildfires and devastate terrestrial permafrost, resulting in huge amounts of further emissions.

Sea ice loss

At the moment, more sunlight reaches the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, low sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere results in a lot less sunlight getting reflected back into space and a lot more sunlight instead getting absorbed by the surface globally. 

The image below illustrates that global sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025. 

[ Arctic sea ice extent, click to enlarge ]

Sea ice extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Sea ice extent can include holes or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone. Sea ice area (image below) is a more critical measure in regard to albedo than sea ice extent (image on the right), so it makes sense to look at sea ice area, rather than at sea ice extent.

Over the next few months, the state of Arctic sea ice will become progressively more important regarding reflectivity, as progressively more sunlight will reach the Northern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. The temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean could rise dramatically due to low Arctic sea ice. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to shrink not only in extent and area, but even more so in thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic and from the Pacific Ocean.

As sea ice thickness decreases, less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, while ocean heat is rising. An increasing proportion of the incoming ocean heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. There is a point beyond which the rise in ocean heat will accelerate dramatically.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

Similarly, there is a point beyond which thawing of permafrost on land and melting of glaciers can no longer consume heat, and all further heat will instead warm up the surface.

[ from earlier post ]

The Sun will reach its most northerly position on June 21, 2025 (Solstice). Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, so less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered before reaching the surface.

[ from Insolation ]

In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while the sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

Further mechanisms

 
Another mechanism is sunspots, which are predicted to reach a peak in this cycle in July 2025 and sunspots to date in this cycle are higher than predicted. 

Yet another mechanism is reductions in cooling aerosols. According to James Hansen et al. (2023), reductions in cooling aerosols from shipping may well be responsible for much of the acceleration in the recent rise in temperature and the increase in the Earth's Energy Imbalance.

For more on mechanisms, see also the earlier post Mechanisms behind a steep rise in temperature. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective climate action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies - surface temperature
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Global surface air temperature
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - monthly trends in CO₂
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Clouds tipping point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Insolation
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. (2023)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

• Carbon dioxide growing rapidly
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Carbon dioxide keeps rising in June 2024

The above image shows a trend (magenta), based on NOAA August 2008 through June 2024 data (black) and added on a canvas that is 31.42-year wide. If this trend continues, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2036 due to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone.

[ from earlier post ]

Rising CO₂ emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources. 

[ from earlier post ]

Despite the many warnings and despite pledges by politicians to act decisively, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Until now, the annual peak was typically reached in May, but this year the June average was (slightly) higher than the May average, ominously pointing at an even higher growth than the record growth in 2023. 

Over the past twelve months, CO₂ concentrations have at times been recorded of well over 430 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.

The clouds tipping point is at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2036 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc.

As illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone.

As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds - at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200 - with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point.

This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page.

[ image from the Extinction page ]

There are many further developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the heating up of the atmosphere.

Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.

Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments (such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect and sunspots reaching a peak) could all contribute to cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Discussion at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169328525635161

CO2 keeps accelerating

The Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, reported a daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, of 428.63 parts per million (ppm) on April 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below. 

This is the highest daily average on record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few weeks. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.94 ppm for the week beginning on April 21, 2024, i.e. 3.98 ppm higher than the 423.96 ppm for the week 1 year earlier.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the daily mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa on April 26, 2024, was 428.59 ppm, a difference of 4.7 ppm from April 26, 2023.

 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

The image below shows the daily average carbon dioxide recorded by NOAA over the past few years at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 

Clouds Tipping Point

The image below illustrates that a polynomial trend (red) follows the recent acceleration in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere more than a linear trend (blue). Data used are NOAA Mauna Loa weekly average CO₂ data through the week starting on April 21, 2024 (data downloaded April 28, 2024). 

The image below is the same as the image above, except that the canvas is zoomed out to show all data on record with trends extended to 2060 (X-axis) and CO₂ concentration going from 300 ppm to 1200 ppm (Y-axis). 

The red polynomial trend also illustrates how rising CO₂ can cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm to be crossed well before 2060, i.e. earlier than anticipated in IPCC models (inset).

Moreover, the clouds tipping point could be crossed much earlier than 2060 when also taking into account methane. Peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.

A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds, at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200, with a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) of 400 ppm. Together with the above daily average CO₂ concentration of 428.63 ppm this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 828.63 ppm, i.e. only 371.37 ppm away from the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm CO₂e) that on its own could raise the global temperature by 8°C.

This 371.37 ppm CO₂e could be added almost immediately by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of methane present in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Already now, local peaks can at times reach very high levels. The image below shows that the NOAA-20 satellite recorded a peak level of 2432 ppb at 399.1 mb on April 25, 2024, am. 

The MetOp-B satellite (also known as MetOp-1) recorded a peak methane level of 3644 ppb and a mean level of 1944 ppb at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ from earlier post ]

[ from earlier post ]

Catastrophic crack propagation is what makes a balloon pop. Could low-lying clouds similarly break up and vanish abruptly? Could peak greenhouse gas concentrations in one spot break up droplets into water vapor, thus raising CO₂e and propagating break-up of more droplets, etc., to shatter entire clouds?

Could a combination of high CO₂ levels and high peak levels of methane suffice to cause the clouds tipping point to be crossed?

Moreover, nitrous oxide is also rising and there are additional elements that could further speed up the rise in CO₂e, as discussed at the Extinction page and this earlier post that warn about the potential for a temperature rise of well over 18°C to unfold as early as 2026.

A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. 

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

[ from earlier post ]

The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson

If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

[ image from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• NOAA - greenhouse gases at Mauna Loa 

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html

• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html

• Arctic Ocean February 2020
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html

• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html

• Potential temperature trends

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• CO2 rise is accelerating

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/co2-rise-is-accelerating.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Transforming Society

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html