Showing posts with label CO2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CO2. Show all posts

Friday, March 15, 2024

CO2 rise is accelerating

On March 15, 2024, the daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 427.93 parts per million (ppm), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. 

This is the highest daily in situ average in the NOAA record at Mauna Loa, which is the more remarkable since the annual CO₂ maximum is typically reached in May, so even higher values are likely to be reached over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ for the last 31 days at Mauna Loa. 

The image below, adapted from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, shows that CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 427.80 ppm on March 14, 2024. The background shows six months of CO₂ ending March 15, 2024. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the weekly mean CO₂ at Mauna Loa was 425.78 ppm recently, a growth of 5.7 ppm compared to one year ago.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action. 

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

[ from earlier post ]

The image below is from the post Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson


If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

[ image from earlier post ]

Meanwhile, Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

• NOAA - annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• Planetwide Ecocide - The Crime Against Life on Earth, by Andrew Glikson 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetwide-ecocide-the-crime-against-life-on-earth.html

• Belgium becomes first in EU to recognise ecocide as international crime 

• How long do we have?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-long-do-we-have.html


• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html



Saturday, March 2, 2024

Arctic sea ice set for steep decline


The February 2024 temperature (at 2 meter) was much higher than in 1951-1980, especially in the Arctic, as the above image shows.


The above image is adapted from NASA and shows an average February 2024 temperature anomaly of 1.44°C above 1951-1980, with anomalies showing up as high as 11°C. 


The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

Two trends are added, the blue trend is based on all data (Jan.1880-Feb.2024) and the magenta trend is based on a shorter period (Jan.2010-Feb.2024), to better reflect variables such as El Niño and non-linear feedbacks as discussed in the page Feedbacks in the Arctic and in this recent post

Ocean temperature


Sea surface temperatures (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) reached a new record high of 21.22°C on March 10, 2024, in the Climate Reanalyzer daily records that go back to 1981. 

Sea surface temperatures may get even higher later this year. What could make the sea surface temperature go up even higher?

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The highest daily sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. 

This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023.

There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to NOAA predictions updated February 26, 2024.

The image below shows the Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, January 2000-February 2024 NOAA data (degrees Celsius).

After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperatures have come down only a little bit in Winter on the Northern Hemisphere, raising the potential for a huge rise in ocean heat later in 2024 that threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and abruptly enter the atmosphere.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Ocean heat content keeps rising at a rate of change that is non-linear, as illustrated by the image below, by Zack Labe.


North Atlantic

The animation below, from Nahel Belgherze, illustrates how much hotter the North Atlantic has been over the past 365 days, while a big rise in temperature can be expected over the next few months, due to the change in season.


In February 2024, the temperature (at 2 meter) over the North Atlantic was 1.927°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. 

The map below shows the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980 in February 2024. 


Arctic surface air temperature

The surface air temperature in the Arctic (66.5-90°N, 0-360°E) was 5.2°C above 1979-2000 on March 3, 2024, the highest anomaly on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Arctic sea ice

As the atmosphere and the oceans keep heating up, Arctic sea ice keeps declining. As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.746 million km² on March 6, 2024. 


As the above image shows, there are a few years with lower sea ice extent during this time of year than in 2024, which could be due to more water vapor in the air causing more precipitation in the Arctic. At this time of year, Arctic sea ice has typically reached its maximum annual extent and goes into steep descend until half September. With the change in seasons, more sunlight will be reaching the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice looks set for a steep decline over the next few months. 


As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume is already at a record low for the time of year, at a time when little or no sunlight is yet reaching the Arctic. Given that Arctic sea ice currently is not at a record low extent for the time of year, this indicates that the sea ice is very thin, due to ocean heat causing sea ice to melt from below. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one

Emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases keep rising

Meanwhile, emissions keep rising. The image below, adapted from IEA, shows the increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, 1900-2023. 


February 2024 CO₂ was about 425 ppm (background image below). February 2023 CO₂ was 420.3 ppm (inset right). The highest annual rise on record is about 3 ppm, reached in 1998 and in 2015/2016 (inset left). 

The threat

The threat of a huge, abrupt temperature rise has been described many times before, e.g. on the Threat page that describes many elements contributing to the threat, both cumulatively and interactively, with some of the content dating back as far as 2007. Another page with more background is the Extinction page.

Further illustrating the threat is the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and using a CMIP6 SSP585 model. The image shows what the temperature anomaly (at 2 meter and compared to 1851-1900) could be by 2100. Such a temperature rise may unfold much earlier when including numerous feedbacks kicking in strongly.


What can strongly contribute to such a rise is that, without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ The buffer is gone - Latent Heat Tipping Point crossed ]
Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Climate Reanalyzer - daily sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E)
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily

• NASA - Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (February 26, 2024 update)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Ocean heat content - image by Zack Labe

• North Atlantic daily sea surface temperature - animation by Nahel Belgherze
https://twitter.com/WxNB_/status/1765065264109101393

• Polar Portal - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• International Energy Agency (IEA) - CO2 Emissions in 2023 report

• Keeling Curve, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego - CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOOA - Monthly Averages CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 

• NOAA - annual increase of CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• The Threat









Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Accelerating global warming and amplifying feedbacks: The imperative of CO₂ drawdown

by Andrew Glikson

Satellite measurements indicate that 2021 was one of the warmest years on record, with the past seven years being the hottest period recorded globally
(Met Office, January 10, 2022). Attempts at global emission reductions, lowered in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, appear to have little effect on atmospheric CO₂ rise, as indicated by the current rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide to record high levels of 420 ppm despite reduced emissions in 2020-2021 (Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1. A. Mean global CO₂ levels from 800,000 years to the present (NASA).
        B. Mean global temperature rise from 1850 to 2021 (Berkeley Earth).

As stated by CarbonBrief: “The year so far has been one of extremes, featuring record-shattering heatwaves, wildfires and flooding, as well as the warmest-ever northern-hemisphere summer – June, July and August – in the global land-surface record.”

Whereas climate negotiations mostly focus on possible reductions in emissions, the cumulative buildup of greenhouse gases is determining the future of the terrestrial climate. According to NASA “Once it’s (CO₂) added to the atmosphere, it hangs around, for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years".

Other estimates are much longer. Because of the longevity of CO₂ and other greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, a decrease in carbon emissions, while essential, is not sufficient to reduce CO₂ levels in the atmosphere in time.

According to the IPCCabout 50% of a CO₂ increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years”. According to the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) “Atmospheric lifetime: 50-200 years. No single lifetime can be defined for CO₂ because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes”.

According to Solomon et al. (2009) and Eby et al. (2009) high levels of CO₂ on the scale of 10² to 10³ ppm would persist for millennia.

Global emission reductions, decreased in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, have little effect on the atmospheric CO₂ level, as indicated by the current trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide, at record high levels despite reduced emissions in 2020 (Figure 2). This suggests to a significant extent the current rise in atmospheric CO₂ arises from amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.

Figure 2. A. Observed and forecast monthly and annual CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa.
Observations from the Scripps CO2 program, forecasts from Met Office. Credit: Met Office.
B. Measured and forecast monthly CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.
Black line: measurements by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Solid red line
with vertical uncertainty bars: forecast by the Met Office, including the revised forecast for 2020
issued in May 2020 accounting for reduced global emissions due to societal responses to Covid-19.
The forecast uncertainty estimate is ± 0.6 ppm. Dotted red line: original Met Office forecast for
2020 issued in January 2020, not accounting for Covid-related emissions reductions.
Horizontal dashed blue line: 417 ppm, a 50% increase above 278 ppm, the level in 1750-1800
from ice core records.

All taking place notwithstanding hollow promises made at COP26, a meeting noted for the near-absence of contributions by climate scientists.

In trying to avoid an exponential rise in greenhouse gases toward catastrophic levels, one option exists, namely urgent attempts at drawing down at least part of the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. The $trillions of dollars required, constituting the “Price of the Earth”, may not exceed the $trillion dollars military expenses spent by the world over the last 70 years, including nuclear missile fleets which constitute a separate threat for life on Earth, as warned by Albert Einstein: “The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe”.


Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

Monday, July 8, 2019

Alaska On Fire

Fires are raging over Alaska. The satellite image below shows the situation on July 8, 2019.


The satellite image below shows the situation on July 9, 2019.


The image below shows carbon monoxide levels as high as 43,443 ppb over Alaska on July 8, 2019.


Carbon dioxide levels were as high as 561 ppm over that same spot in Alaska on July 8, 2019. Carbon dioxide levels were as high as 888 ppm on July 10, 2019, as the image below shows.


The image below shows a forecast for July 10, 2019, with temperatures forecast to be as high as 35.5°C or 95.8°F.


What causes such extreme weather events to occur?

The Arctic has been heating up faster than the rest of the world, due to self-reinforcing feedback loops such as the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic, which results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more sunlight instead getting absorbed in the Arctic.

As the image on the right shows, sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea were as high as 19.8°C or 67.64°F on June 21, 2019.

As the image underneath shows, sea surface temperatures in the Bering Sea were as high as 21.6°C or 70.88°F on July 15, 2019.

Warm water from rivers flowing into the Bering Strait have contributed to some of the high temperatures of the water near the coast of Alaska.

Furthermore, as the June 21, 2019, image below shows, sea surface temperature anomalies have also been high around Alaska further away from the coast.

Indeed, more than 90% of the extra energy caused by humans goes into oceans, and sea currents carry a lot of this extra heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

As a result, ocean temperatures have been high for some time around Alaska.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies around Alaska on June 21, 2019.


Another feedback is that, as the Arctic heats up faster than the rest of the world, the jet stream becomes more wavy, making it easier for cold air to flow out of the Arctic to the south and for warm air from the south to enter the Arctic. These changes to the jet stream also cause stronger storms to occur in the Arctic and more water vapor to enter the atmosphere. All this further contributes to more heating to occur in the Arctic and more extreme weather events.

Heatwaves also cause more forest fires to occur in Alaska, and these forest fires are causing large amounts of soot to get deposited on mountains and on sea ice, thus further blackening the surface. More generally, the Arctic is getting more deposits of soot and dust, as well as stronger growth of algae, moss and microbes, all further speeding up the demise of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies around Alaska on July 11, 2019, with an anomaly of 7.7°C or 13.8°F compared to 1981-2011 showing up north of Alaska in the Arctic Ocean. The light blue areas indicate sea surface that is colder, due to heavy melting of the sea ice in those areas.


The image below shows a deformed jet stream (forecast for July 9, 2019) that enables hot air from the south to move over Alaska.


from an earlier post (2014)  
Heatwaves and forest fires are symptoms of the rapid heating that is taking place in the Arctic. Self-reinforcing feedback loops further accelerate heating in the Arctic and just one of them, seafloor methane, threatens to cause runaway heating.

Just the existing carbon dioxide and methane, plus seafloor methane releases, would suffice to trigger the clouds feedback tipping point to be crossed that by itself could push up global temperatures by 8°C, within a matter of years, as the image below shows.


As described on above image and in an earlier post, huge amounts of methane could be released from destabilizing hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Such releases could be triggered by strong winds causing an influx of warm, salty water into the Arctic ocean, as described in an earlier post and discussed in the 2017 video below.



The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Extreme weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html



Sunday, July 1, 2018

Can we weather the Danger Zone?

[ click on image to enlarge ]
As an earlier Arctic-news analysis shows, Earth may have long crossed the 1.5°C guardrail set at the Paris Agreement.

Earth may have already been in the Danger Zone since early 2014. This is shown by the image on the right associated with the analysis, which is based on NASA data that are adjusted to reflect a preindustrial baseline, air temperatures and Arctic temperatures.

As the added 3rd-order polynomial trend shows, the world may also be crossing the higher 2°C guardrail later this year, while temperatures threaten to keep rising dramatically beyond that point.

What is the threat?

As described at the Threat, much carbon is stored in large and vulnerable pools that have until now been kept stable by low temperatures. The threat is that rapid temperature rise will hit vulnerable carbon pools hard, making them release huge amounts of greenhouse gases, further contributing to the acceleration of the temperature rise.


Further release of greenhouse gases will obviously further speed up warming. In addition, there are further warming elements that could result in very rapid acceleration of the temperature rise, as discussed at the Extinction page.

The Danger Zone

Below are some images illustrating just how dire the situation is, illustrating how vulnerable carbon pools are getting hit exactly as feared they would be with a further rise in temperature.

On July 5, 2018, it was as hot as 33.5°C or 92.3°F on the coast of the Arctic Ocean in Siberia (at top green circle, at 72.50°N). Further inland, it was as hot as 34.2°C or 93.5°F (at bottom green circle, at 68.6°N).


The satellite image below shows smoke from fires over parts of Siberia hit strongly by heat waves.


The fires caused carbon monoxide levels as high as 20,309 ppb over Siberia on July 3, 2018.


Methane levels that day were as high as 2,809 ppb.


On July 4, 2018, forest fires near the Lena River cause smoke over the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea. CO (see inset) and CO₂ levels that day were as high as 45080 ppb and 724 ppm (at the green circle), as illustrated by the image below.


The Copernicus image below shows aerosol forecasts for July 4, 2018, 21:00 UTC, due to biomass burning.


Another Copernicus forecast shows high ozone levels over Siberia and the East Siberian Sea.


EPA 8-hour ozone standard is 70 ppb and here's a report on recent U.S. ozone levels. See Wikipedia for more on the strong local and immediate warming impact of ozone and how it also makes vegetation more vulnerable to fires.

The global 10-day forecast (GFS) below, run on July 3, 2018, with maximum 2 meter temperature, shows that things may get even worse over the coming week or more.


Could we move out of the Danger Zone?

What can be done to improve this dire situation?

One obvious line of action is to make more effort to reduce emissions that are causing warming. There's no doubt that this can be achieved and has numerous benefits, as described in an earlier post. Emission cuts can be achieved by implementing effective policies to facilitate changes in energy use, in diet and in land use and construction practices, etc.

One complication is that the necessary transition away from fossil fuel is unlikely to result in immediate falls in temperatures. This is the case because there will be less sulfur in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight back into space. Furthermore, there could also be an increase in biomass burning, as discussed at the Aerosols page, while the full wrath of recent carbon dioxide emissions is yet to come. As said, the resulting rise in temperature threatens to trigger numerous feedbacks that could accelerate the temperature rise even further. For more on how much temperatures could rise, see the Extinction page.

While it's clear that - besides emission cuts - further action is necessary, such as removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and oceans, the prospect is that such removal will have to continue for decades and decades to come before it can bring greenhouse gases down to safer levels. To further combat warming, there are additional lines of action to be looked at, but as long as politicians remain reluctant to even consider pursuing efforts to reduce emissions, we can expect that the world will be in the Danger Zone for a long time to come.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.



Links

• How much warmer is it now?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/04/how-much-warmer-is-it-now.html

• 100% clean, renewable energy is cheaper
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/02/100-clean-renewable-energy-is-cheaper.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• How much warming have humans caused?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• IPCC seeks to downplay global warming
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/02/ipcc-seeks-to-downplay-global-warming.html

• The Threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• How extreme will it get?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-extreme-will-it-get.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html