![]() |
[ Temperature anomaly through February 2025 ] |
The temperature anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).

As the above image shows, the February 2025 temperature anomalies were particularly high over the Arctic, as high as 11.7°C and reflecting very high temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. This is a very dangerous situation, as discussed elsewhere in this post.

Increase in carbon dioxide
![]() |
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
![]() |
[ from an earlier post ] |
Increase in methane
Methane in the atmosphere could be doubled soon if a trend unfolds as depicted in the image below. A rapid rise is highlighted in the inset and reflected in the trend.
![]() |
[ from earlier post ] |
The period of 22 months was selected as the resulting trend strongly reflects the steep rise in methane that took place over the four most recent months for which data are available (as highlighted in the inset on the image). One could argue that seasonal variations could reduce the growth over the coming months, but on the other hand, a huge rise in methane could occur soon due to eruptions of methane from clathrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
The trend points at a doubling of methane by March 2026. If the trend would continue, methane concentrations in the atmosphere would by September 2026 increase to more than triple the most recent value, and would increase to more than fourfold the most recent value by the end of 2026.
![]() |
[ Arctic sea ice extent, click to enlarge ] |
![]() |
[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ] |
As sea ice thickness decreases, less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, while ocean heat is rising. An increasing proportion of the incoming ocean heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. There is a point beyond which the rise in ocean heat will accelerate dramatically.
![]() |
[ from earlier post ] |
![]() |
[ from Insolation ] |
Another mechanism is sunspots, which are predicted to reach a peak in this cycle in July 2025 and sunspots to date in this cycle are higher than predicted.
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective climate action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
Links
• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies - surface temperature
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Global surface air temperature
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html
• Clouds tipping point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth
• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Insolation
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. (2023)
• Carbon dioxide growing rapidly
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html
• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html