Showing posts with label ocean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ocean. Show all posts

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Sea surface temperatures and El Niño

The upcoming El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño threatens to become a monster within a few months time.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 1, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for part of some forecast members and exceed 3.5°C for part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line). 

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast update for June 1, 2026, for the Niño3 region, with forecasts exceeding 4°C for parts of some forecast members and approaching 4°C for part of the mean. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions this high indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and with a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right). 

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

High sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Ocean on May 22, 2026. 


The above image highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 22, 2026, in three areas: 5.3°C off the coast of South America, 4.6°C off the coast of California and 5.4°C off the coast of Asia.

The image below highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 on May 29, 2026, in four areas: 7.2°C off the coast of France, 8.1°C off the coast of Asia, 5.3°C off the coast of South America, and 6.3°C off the coast of South Africa.


As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of subsurface ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.


The image below shows that on May 21, 2026, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record for this time of year in the Niño3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120–170°W, inset), an area in the Pacific Ocean that is indicative for development of El Niño. 


Forecasts of sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions partly exceeding 3.5°C indicate that the 2026-2027 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño and will be the strongest El Niño on record, as discussed in an earlier post. 

On May 23, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E, inset also shows anomalies) sea surface temperature was the highest on record for this time of year, as illustrated by the image below.


Sea surface temperatures (SST) peak twice each year: in March/April (when it's Summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and in August (when it's Summer in the Northern Hemisphere). There were La Niña conditions in early 2026, yet 2026 SST were close to and at times exceeded the record high SST reached in 2024, which was an El Niño year. The remainder of 2026 is likely to be dominated by El Niño conditions. According to NOAA, there is 82% chance of an El Niño in May-July 2026 and 96% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.

The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies for the entire globe on May 23, 2026. A larger version is added below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
A temperature of 52.1°C or 125.7°F is forecast in Pakistan on May 28, 2026, at the location marked by the green circle.


SSP5-8.5 scenario

In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, radiative forcing is projected to increase to 8.5 W/m² by 2100. Below are the IPCC projections for CO₂ concentration and temperature change for the SSP5-8.5 scenario.


The image below shows the CO₂ concentration over the last 31 days at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The hand points at a daily CO₂ concentration of 433.95 parts per million (ppm) recorded on May 1, 2026.


Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Rising temperatures are threatening to cause dramatic loss in sea ice. Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance and in ocean heat is outpacing SPSS5-8.5, as illustrated by the combination image below, by Leon Simons.


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 11.61 million km² on May 28, 2026 (black), 2nd lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.91σ. Highlighted in blue is the sea ice extent in 2012 (record low year) and highlighted in purple is the sea ice extent in 2016, when there was a strong El Niño. 
 

The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 31, 2026, as it has been for years. 


As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice area was 1.69 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on May 21, 2026, the lowest global area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.77σ. Highlighted in black is 2026 and highlighted in blue is 2025, until now the record low year for global sea ice area.


The map below shows an update of an earlier forecast for November 2026 with temperature anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean at the top of the scale (13°C), adapted from tropicaltidbits.com.


These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean suggests strong sea ice decline, with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, coming with huge albedo changes and loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise. There are further developments that can contribute to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post.


The map above, from an earlier post, and the map below show forecasts for December 2026 and January 2027, respectively, with temperature anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean exceeding 10°C, based on SSP5-8.5 or what used to be called the "worst-case scenario". 


Ominously, the forecast for January 2027 below, from an earlier post and adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows very high sea surface temperatures anomalies around Antarctica, which spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which typically reaches its annual minimum in February. 


Is SSP5-8.5 the "worst-case" scenario?

The image below, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer, shows the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario pointing at a temperature rise of 1.661°C in February 2025, of 4.388°C in February 2083 and of 5.163°C in February 2100, when using a 1901-2000 base (temperatures will be higher when a genuinely pre-industrial base is used).

SSP5-8.5
The map below, from an earlier post, shows the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 rise versus 1881-1920 in February 2100. The map shows that the temperature rise in areas on land (where most people live) could be as much as 8°C higher in Feb 2100 in the SSP585 model.


The map warns that temperatures over large parts of the Arctic may be more than 20°C higher than 1881-1920 in February 2100. This would suggest that by 2100 the snow and ice cover in the Arctic will have declined dramatically and that huge amounts of greenhouse gases will likely have been released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. 

The CMIP6 emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) did not fully include the potential impact of bad climate policy and of feedbacks such as seafloor methane eruptions and loss of lower clouds. For "even-worse-than-SSP5-8.5" scenarios, have a look at the potential for a global temperature rise of more than 20°C by 2050 discussed in this 2013 post and the potential for a 18.44°C rise by the end of 2026 discussed in this recent post. 

The immensity of the danger justifies keeping a close and watchful eye on the data, on research, on forecasts and projections, e.g. data from Copernicus' Methane Hotspot Explorer shows that the largest methane emission event in October 2024 occurred from an urban landfill in Kazakhstan, while the top seven methane emission events included landfills, oil and coal, but not natural gas operations, as illustrated by the image below. 


Temperatures have risen due to human activities over thousands of years. Over the years, the focus of these activities has shifted four times and a fifth shift is coming up.
1. Moving away from hunting and gathering toward herding animals and agriculture.
2. Moving to cities, where people found work in factories (the Industrial Revolution).
3. Rising urban services and infrastructure, commuters to and from sprawling suburbs.
4. Avoiding damaging the climate and environment, with a focus on electrifying energy. 
5. A focus on transforming society through renewal of cities, land use and infrastructure. 


The fourth shift is highlighted by the UN's adoption of a resolution that calls on all UN Member States to take all possible steps to avoid causing significant damage to the climate and environment, including emissions produced within their borders, and to follow through on their existing climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. This sends a strong message that tackling the climate crisis is a legal duty under international law, and not just a political choice. The resolution also calls for the UN Secretary-General to submit a report in 2027 on ways to advance compliance with the obligations identified in the International Court of Justice advisory opinion.

The Climate Plan group discusses the fifth shift, i.e transforming society while highlighting the importance of a formal declaration of a climate emergency to raise awareness and to help overcome obstacles that could delay the necessary climate action, with a climate emergency declared globally and with implementation of climate action preferably decided locally provided it is in line with best-available science.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• NOAA - Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

• nullschool.net

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic discussion, Climate Prediction Center, National Center for Environmental Prediction, statement issued 14 May 2026 

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• IPCC Assessment Report 6 Workgroup 1 Chapter 4 - Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term Information 
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter04.pdf

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center, a part of CIRES at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Leon Simons - rise in ocean heat and Earth Energy Imbalance 
https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.com/post/3mloc6c4bas2v

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html




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Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Horrific temperature anomalies forecast over Arctic Ocean

Antarctic sea ice

The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness and concentration by the University of Bremen (left and center) and concentration by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right) on February 17, 2026. The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange. 


Loss of Antarctic sea ice can result in strong loss of global albedo, due to the size of Antarctic sea ice and its proximity to the Equator.

Arctic sea ice


Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for well over a year. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through February 18, 2026. 

Until now, Arctic sea ice volume for each day in 2026 has been lower than on comparable days for any previous year on record. The 2026 curve (black) is moving down, steeper than it did in 2024 (dark blue), even though an El Niño started early 2024 and continued until early 2025 (light blue). Arctic temperatures are terrifying and some temperature forecasts are horrendous (images below). Arctic temperatures have been rising, despite the move from an El Niño into the current La Niña over the past few years. Making the outlook even more dire, an El Niño is on the way.

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The images on the right and below are adapted from NOAA. The image on the right shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. The image below shows that La Niña conditions have been present for most periods (18 out of 19) dating back to the May-June-July 2024 period. 


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026. 

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026. 


The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).


IPCC keeps downplaying Arctic temperature anomaly

The image below shows a horrendous temperature anomaly forecast, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, valid for November 2026, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


Sadly, the IPCC keeps downplaying the dangers and it does so in many ways. One way the full wrath of temperature rise is all too often masked is by using a too recent base from which the temperature rise is calculated, and then pretending that it was pre-industrial. Pre-historic obviously and by definition refers to times before the Industrial Revolution started, yet the IPCC seeks to downplay the dangers of crossing the Paris Agreement thresholds by using a more recent base, adding that it "approximates" pre-industrial, as if that would excuse the downplaying. Obviously, a higher historic rise comes with stronger feedbacks, e.g. more water vapor in the atmosphere. 

Then, there's the masking of the acceleration in the temperature rise. As illustrated by the Eliot Jacobson image below, which uses a 3-year running mean, the temperature has meanwhile crossed the 1.5°C threshold and reached 1.53°C even when using an 1850-1900 base, while there clearly is acceleration in the temperature rise.


Temperature anomalies have long been high in the Arctic. The image below shows rising annual Arctic temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980, with a peak occurring in 2016, which was a strong El Niño year, while temperatures have been rising over the past few years despite the move from an El Niño into the current La Niña. 


The image below shows the ERA5 January 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, hitting the Arctic particularly hard. 


The image below shows the NASA January 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, with the highest anomalies showing up over the Arctic, due to sea ice loss and increasingly extreme weather events resulting from distortion of the Jet Stream, which also contributed to low temperatures in parts of the U.S. and Russia. Feedbacks in the Arctic and the horrendous rise of Arctic temperatures is all too often masked by a focus on long-term global averages. 


The IPCC also seeks to downplay the dangers by manipulating the rise to come, e.g. by using linear trends. The image below shows NASA Land-Only temperature anomalies with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) from 2022 through January 2026. The 1.5°C threshold has been crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares connected by black lines). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed since 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed soon on land (where most people live), i.e. in 2029 if this trend continues (dashed extension).


The extension in the above image is a linear extension, but acceleration implies that alternative trends are more appropriate, such as polynomial trends. The image below shows 15 years of NASA temperature anomalies (land-only) compared to 1880-1920 with a quartic trend added that points at the 3°C threshold getting crossed in 2027.

The trend in the above image points at 3°C getting crossed and this 3°C is an important threshold. Humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise, so the canvas in the above image is limited to  3°C. For a rise beyond 3°C, see the image below and the Extinction page and the image below. 

The inset with the pink/white canvas on the image below shows ERA5 global surface air temperature daily anomalies in °C versus 1991-2020 through February 11, 2026, with a polynomial trend added highlighting temperature variations in line with seasons, El Niño/La Niña, feedbacks, etc. The background image with the yellow canvas shows the same data and added trend on a larger canvas, with the trend pointing at a rise of 10°C in January 2027. 

[ click on images to enlarge, this image is also discussed on facebook ]


The Methane Menace

Paul Beckwith, in the video below, discusses 'Methane: The Emergency Brake for Global Heating'. 


There have long been calls for action on methane, which can strongly reduce the temperatures rise, due to its high Global Warming Potential (GWP). 

[ from earlier post ]
Conversely, methane can also strongly contribute to a huge rise in temperature. Both the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios required methane emissions to have fallen since 2015. Even for SSP2-4.5, in which 2°C does get crossed, methane emissions would need to fall. After record growth in methane concentration in 2021, there was a bit of a slowdown in growth in the following years. However, growth in methane concentration has picked up pace again recently, as illustrated by the image below. 


The magenta-colored trend in the image below points at methane more than doubling by 2043. 

The above text and images describe and depict horrendous dangers, and the IPCC has yet to respond. Methane is only one of the contributors to what could be a horrific rise in temperature in the Arctic. 


Averaging the problems away

As the EPA animation on the right illustrates, a relatively small rise in average temperature can result in a lot more hot and extremely hot weather.

The three images underneath, from the IPCC, show the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature.

Another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging out peak impact, i.e. the most destructive impact. Averaging out peaks can be done by looking at large areas with a low resolution. As an example, land-only temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures. Since most people live on land, it's crucial to report the full temperature peaks on land, rather than the global average.

Yet another way used to downplay the dangers is by averaging the temperature rise out over long periods of time. How can the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement best be measured? Is a threshold deemed to be crossed when the anomaly from pre-industrial crosses the threshold for a month, or for a year, or for a decade?

Averaging out over a long period can be used to downplay the dangers in efforts to effectively grant polluters a long grace period during which they can continue to pollute. 

Uncertainty is often pointed at as an excuse to downplay the dangers, but even in case there is uncertainty, downplaying the dangers constitutes a violation of the crucial precautionary principle, as illustrated by the cartoon below.

An engineer building a bridge will calculate the load it must handle by looking at how many heavy trucks could be on the bridge simultaneously (PEAK traffic), rather than by averaging the weight of all vehicles crossing the bridge over 30 years.
Caption and image by Sam Carana, image is from earlier post.
Will life soon disappear?

[ from earlier post ]
The image on the right uses content from a study by Christina Schädel et al, which concludes that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature from a 389-691 Gt pool of permafrost carbon.

That 63 Gt C would translate into 231 Gt CO₂ if only CO₂ gets released. By comparison, the total annual human emissions are now about 55 Gt CO₂e and NOAA calculates that the atmosphere has changed from 1750 to 2024 by 539 ppm CO₂e due to people's greenhouse gas emissions.

Importantly, some of the carbon will be released in the form of methane and CO₂e is much higher for releases in the form of methane than for carbon dioxide, especially when a high multiplier is used to calculate methane's CO₂e. Even worse, releases from submarine permafrost would come mostly in the form of methane.

The danger is even more menacing when looking at how fast temperatures are rising in the Arctic and when including more feedbacks, i.e. not only the impact of permafrost fires and permafrost thaw, but also the impact of destabilizing sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, on top of the impact of albedo loss and loss of the latent heat buffer of declining sea ice and permafrost. 

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, shows a 36-running average for Earth's albedo through December 2025.


As discussed above, the next El Niño may take off from a temperature 0.5°C higher than where El Niño developed in 2023. The image below, by Leon Simons, shows Earth's Energy Imbalance through December 2025 when it reached +1.4 W/m², as discussed on facebook.


As discussed, drawing linear trends can be used to downplay the danger and to mask recent or near-future acceleration that may also strengthen over the years. Moreover, crossing tripping points can result in huge abrupt changes. A recent study warns about States and financial bodies using modelling that ignores shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points.

Warnings are further illustrated by the image below that features a gradually accelerating decline in biodiversity (red line) and infrastructure growth over time followed by imminent and abrupt infrastructure decline (grey line). The image warns that a false focus can cause imminent or ongoing collapse to be ignored.

[ click on images to enlarge, image is discussed on facebook ]
Ultimately, economic projections fail because they focus on money, global GDP, and similar constructs, ignoring the damage occurring to the soil, water, atmosphere and the very conditions that sustain life. Increasingly unlivable conditions result from a failure to correct this false focus, or rather from a refusal to accept that what's really important is disappearing—indeed life itself is disappearing before our own eyes.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses problems forests have in adapting to rising temperatures, illustrating the dangers.


Indeed, temperatures are rising too fast for forests to adapt by moving to higher latitudes. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt—far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapid warming. Merely planting trees may not help much if the soil lacks ectomycorrhizal fungi, a recent study points out. Also, adding biochar to the soil may help, but there currently isn't much government support, support that should preferably come in the form of local feebates.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen - sea ice concentration and thickness
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
image discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163809174829679


• NOAA - ENSO Alert System Status (pdf)

• NOAA - ENSO Alert System Status

• NOAA - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI): Historical El Niño / La Niña episodes
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163817526189679

• ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) - Niño Plumes
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10163819996829679
set 2:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_plumes
discussed on Facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/?multi_permalinks=10163853533389679

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Analysis

• When Will We Die?

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Copernicus ERA5 data
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales - by David Fastovich et al.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163832954534679

• Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts - by Michael Van Nuland et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2308811121
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163832955574679

• Science Snippets: Linking Plants with Soil - video by Guy McPherson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TNxF9o2aTk

• Biochar - group on facebook
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