Showing posts with label volume. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volume. Show all posts

Monday, March 2, 2026

The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026

The 2026 El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026.

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).


The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, indicating El Niño (red bar) will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]
The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through September 2026 in the Niño3.4 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).


Sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region indicate a "super" or very strong El Niño event. 

The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region from early January 2026 to March 1, 2026.


Forests are burning

The image below, from Copernicus, shows high levels of carbon dioxide over South America, Central Africa and India on March 14, 2026, indicating massive burning of forests and crop residues. 

Ocean and air temperatures

During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates ocean heat building up in the Equatorial Pacific region. 


During El Niño, more ocean heat comes to the sea surface and more ocean heat gets transferred to the atmosphere, resulting in elevated air temperatures. 

The image below with the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperatures from NOAA OISST V2.1 shows that on March 14, 2026, the sea surface temperature was 21.09°C, an anomaly of +0.7°C compared to 1982-2010. The sea surface temperature has risen by 0.4°C since January 1, 2026. 


Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here. The danger is illustrated by the image below. 

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook and also at the Arcticnews group on facebook ]
The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature. The above image shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.


The above image shows NASA February 2026 Land+Ocean temperature anomalies as high as 6.6°C with an average of 1.24°C above 1951-1980.


The above image was created with NASA Land Only temperature anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through February 2026. The image shows that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed on land for all months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed on land since 2022 and that the 3°C threshold may get crossed soon, possibly half 2029 if this trend continues (dashed red extension). 


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image below shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño. 

The image on the right shows that most forecasts point at a sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding 2°C in the NINO3.4 region in Sept 2026, indicating that a super El Niño event is on the way.

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
Arctic sea ice

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.61 million km² on March 16, 2026, the lowest extent on record for the time of year. The image is adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that on March 11, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 14.212 million km², the second daily lowest on record. 


This is a very dangerous situation, since we're moving out of a La Niña (which is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (which will be elevating the temperature), as also described in a recent post. 

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent anomaly was 1.35 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on March 10, 2026 (black), the second lowest daily anomaly on record and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.37σ. The sea ice daily extent anomaly was only lower on March 10, 2025 (purple), when the deviation was -3.51σ, but the deviation was -1.26σ on May 1, 2025.  

If the 2026 Arctic sea ice volume continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong, the danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026. 

The danger is further illustrated by the image below that shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.


As illustrated by the above image, adapted from dmi.dk, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting). 

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on March 16, 2026. 


The image below, adapted from Zack Labe, shows sea ice thickness near the North Pole from 1979 through February 2026. 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Proposed amendment to the Constitution

People who see huge environmental dangers have a duty to speak out and politicians have a duty to act. When dangers are confirmed by best-available science, politicians who still fail to act should be immediately replaced and institutionalized until rehabilitated.


Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Ocean heat in the Equatorial Pacific region






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Monday, February 23, 2026

The 2026 El Nino

Arctic sea ice extent

Arctic sea ice extent was 13.53 million km² on February 28, 2026, the second lowest on record for the time of year. This is a very dangerous situation, as we're moving out of a La Niña that is suppressing temperatures into an El Niño that is elevating temperatures. 

The above image is adapted from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research and shows Arctic sea ice extent from the start of the year through early May. 

The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest on record for the time of year on February 27, 2026. 


As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 1.36 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on February 27, 2026 (black), the second lowest anomaly on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.96σ. 


Importantly, we're moving from a La Niña to an El Niño. The above images illustrate the impact of differences between El Niño and La Niña. The year 2016 was a strong El Niño year and Arctic sea ice extent started to decline strongly in the course of 2016 and extent remained low in 20017 and 2018. The El Niño that started to develop in 2023 contributed to the very low sea ice extent in early 2025, while sea ice extent was also lowest on record for the day during early parts of 2026. The blue line is the 2012 extent, which would turn into a record low later that year, a record that still stands today. 

What happened in 2012? Let's first look into greenhouse gas concentrations, which are high in the Arctic and causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly.


[ CO₂ concentration on Feb 22, 2026 ]
As illustrated by the image below, methane concentrations were as high as 2498 ppb on February 19, 2026. Methane tends to be higher closer to the North Pole, while methane is particularly high at this altitude, unlike CO₂ that has its highest concentrations close to the surface.

As illustrated by the image on the right, surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) was as high as 526 ppm on February 22, 2026. The image also shows that CO₂ concentrations are high across the Arctic.

High Arctic concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing Arctic temperatures to rise strongly, contributing to decline in Arctic ice and snow cover, which causes loss of surface albedo (reflectivity).

Albedo loss is a self-amplifying feedback loop that further speeds up the temperature rise in the Arctic. 

The strong rise of Arctic temperatures narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the Arctic, which slows down the speed at which hot air flows from the Equator to the Arctic. This slowdown can hugely distort the Jet Stream and can also contribute to a slowdown of ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which - together with ocean stratification - can contribute to more ocean heat accumulating at the surface and to less lower clouds (albedo loss).

[ Storm over Arctic Ocean, August 2012 ]
Distortion of the Jet Stream in turn results in more extreme weather such as heatwaves, storms and fires. Fires produce soot that can settle down on the snow and ice cover and darken the surface (albedo loss). Storms can bring huge amounts of warm air into the Arctic. Furthermore, storms can churn sea ice into smaller pieces.

Early August 2012, a storm hit the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image on the right. Smaller pieces of ice melt more rapidly, since more parts become exposed to ocean heat, in contrast to a large flat and solid layer of ice that is also less susceptible to wind. 

Pieces of ice that are lighter and smaller will more easily stand out above the water and capture the wind like the sails of yachts. Storms can push these smaller pieces more easily together, decreasing sea ice extent (albedo loss). 

Storms can also temporarily speed up currents that are moving pieces of sea ice, with the potential to move pieces all the way out of the Arctic Ocean, where they will melt away rapidly. 

Furthermore, storms can cause deeper vertical mixing of the sea water column, causing more heat to penetrate the seabed and resulting in destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments and eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas held underneath the hydrates. 

In conclusion, a huge retreat in Arctic sea ice extent could occur in 2026, as Jet Stream distortion is getting ever stronger due to the ongoing temperature rise and this can cause storms over the Arctic Ocean to devastate sea ice extent. A Blue Ocean Event could therefore happen in the course of 2026. 

The 2026 El Niño
 
During La Niña, heat builds up underneath the sea surface, so sea surface temperatures and air temperatures get suppressed. During El Niño, ocean heat comes to the sea surface and air temperatures are elevated.

The image below shows ERA5 daily sea surface temperature anomalies (60°S-60°N) from 1 January 2023 through 25 February 2026, with an added trend, warning about the potential for a steep temperature rise in 2026.

[ the image is discussed at Arcticnews on facebook ]

[ El Niño outlook ]
Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño alone can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts, indicating that El Niño will emerge in the course of 2026. 

The image below, also adapted from NOAA, shows El Niño years (red), La Niña years (blue) and neutral years (grey).

[ image from earlier post ]

[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities for the Niño3.4 region (5°N-5°S,120°W-170°W) relative sea surface temperature index, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026.

The combination image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through February 2027 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.

[ image from earlier post ]
The combination image below, also adapted from ECMWF, shows anomalies and forecasts through August 2026 in the Niño3 region (left panel) and the Niño1+2 region (right panel).

[ image from earlier post ]
The image below, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a rise since early January 2026 of more than 2.5°C in sea surface temperature anomalies (CDAS data) in the Niño1+2 region through February 28, 2026. 


Nick Breeze talks with Jennifer Francis about the upcoming El Niño in the video below, also discussed on facebook.


Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear

Ocean heat is another contributor to Arctic sea ice loss and ocean heat keeps melting sea ice all year long from below. 

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows monthly Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume as well as a record low minimum volume.

As illustrated by the above image, Arctic sea ice volume in April 2025 was very low, so while relatively little melting took place between April 2025 and September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid December 2025, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum). If the trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice in 2026 looks set to reach an even lower volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains.

There is a huge danger that seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost will add strongly and abruptly to the temperature rise, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the screenshot below.
 
Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. The danger of this is described in the screenshot below. 
[ screenshot from earlier post ]
The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on February 28, 2026. 


The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous

The combination image below shows images adapted from Copernicus. The image on the left shows temperature anomalies at the bottom end of the scale over parts of North America and Russia on February 27, 2026, while temperature anomalies are at the top end of the scale over much of the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows absolute temperatures on February 27, 2025.


The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for February 27, 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (28°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean. The image also illustrates to what extent cold air has descended from the Arctic over Russia and North America, with more background as to why this is happening discussed in a recent post.


The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for November 2026, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, with anomalies at the top end of the scale (13°C) showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.


The danger is that a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, kicking in with increasing ferocity, as follows:

• a strong 2026 El Niño could trigger a cascade of feedbacks, including:
• a Blue Ocean Event (minimal Arctic sea ice), resulting in huge loss of albedo,
• with crossing of the latent heat tipping point (loss of ice buffer), resulting in
• seafloor CH₄ hydrates destabilization and eruption of vast amounts of CH₄, and
• submarine and terrestrial permafrost thawing, resulting in even more emissions,
• and further Jet Stream distortion, causing even more extreme weather events,
• resulting in forest fires, initially in Siberia, Alaska and Canada, and also in
• droughts and fires in global peatlands and in tropical rainforests, causing
• rapid melting and thaw of mountaintop snow and ice, initially causing flooding,
• followed by droughts, fires, water shortages, famine, heatwaves, starvation,
• resulting in massive biodiversity loss, while infrastructure collapses, and
• the Greenland Ice Sheet and parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, causing
• massive flooding of coastal areas, next to a huge rise in temperature,
• while more water vapor in the air causes the temperature rise to speed up further.

[ image from earlier post, also discussed on facebook ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• Japanese National Institute of Polar Research
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Blue Ocean  Event






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Monday, December 1, 2025

The next El Nino

Arctic sea ice 

Arctic sea ice volume is at a record daily low. It has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 13, 2025. 


The image below shows that the November 2025 Arctic sea ice volume was the lowest on record for the month of November. 
The image below, adapted from an Eliot Jacobson image, shows the annual minima of Arctic sea ice thickness through 2025.


The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent was at a record daily low on December 12, 2025. 


Loss of sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in higher temperatures, in a self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image on the right shows Arctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 13, 2025.

Furthermore, loss of Arctic sea ice volume can contribute to a huge rise in temperature as a result of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As Arctic sea ice shrinks in volume, its capacity shrinks to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. As the buffer disappears, the temperature of the water can rise strongly and abruptly, causing heat to penetrate sediments that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas underneath hydrates. Heat penetrating such sediments can destabilize such hydrates, resulting in huge eruptions of methane. 

Such an event could be triggered by wild weather swings resulting from higher temperatures that come with the next El Niño that is likely to emerge and strengthen in the course of the year 2026. 

Global sea ice

The image below shows that the global sea ice extent was 3.2 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on December 15, 2025, the second lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.9σ.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies from January 1979 through December 12, 2025. Satellite data are from NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS and JAXA AMSR2. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a 1981-2010 base. 


   [ Saltier water, less sea ice. From earlier post. ]
The above image shows that the Antarctic sea ice extent anomaly remained relatively stable for many years, but gradually increased during the period from 2007 to 2015. 

This increase can be attributed to rising temperatures from 2007 resulting in stronger wind spreading the sea ice and stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean coming with increased snowfall on top of the sea ice accompanied by increased meltwater, which initially lowered salinity of the sea surface, enabling sea ice to spread wide. 

Meanwhile, stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean also increased snowfall over Antarctica, where a significant part of the snow has remained on top of the snow cover.

Eventually, in 2015, this and rising temperatures started to overwhelm the earlier impact and increasingly stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean started to contribute to make the sea surface more salty, resulting in more rapid melting of the sea ice. 

This is illustrated by the forecast for December 28, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline) on the right. 
It is further illustrated by the image on the right that shows a forecast for December 29, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

The image below shows a forecast for December 28, 2025, of the global precipitablewater anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

This is a self-amplifying feedback, in that saltier water at the ocean surface also draws up more heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow. Increasing amounts of heat and CO₂ that were previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, threaten to instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise. 

Many of these feedbacks such as changes in salinity and stratification have been discussed in earlier post such as this one.


The increase in snowfall on Antarctica is also illustrated by the image below that shows the accumulated precipitation anomaly (in percentage, versus 1951-1980) for the 12-month period from December 2024 through November 2025 (ECMWF ERA5 Data, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org. 


A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) shows that, over the years, the Southern Ocean surface has become more hot and salty.

The combined impact of these feedbacks can accumulate and strike rapidly. Feedbacks include the impact of sea ice decline (latent heat buffer loss + albedo loss), of the water vapor feedback, of increased stratification and salinity of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean, of heat entering the atmosphere from the ocean and of less heat getting transferred from the air to the depths of the ocean, and - as temperature rise - of triggering additional feedbacks such as loss of lower clouds and thus additionally causing more heat to be absorbed by the surface as less sunlight is getting reflected back into space.

[ from earlier post ]
Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in air temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean could also rise up and commit Earth to further additional surface warming in the future.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the poles, resulting in a relative slowdown in speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles.

This slowdown impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream.

As illustrated by the combination image below, surface temperatures of the sea around Antarctica off the coast of Wilkes Land were as high as 1.9°C or 35.4°F on December 16, 2025 (at the green circle, globe right), an anomaly of 3.1°C or 5.5°F (at the circle, globe left). 


Sea ice cannot survive such high temperatures for long. The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Sea ice starts melting as soon as the temperature rises to -1.8°C (28.76°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature stays below 0°C (32°F). In very salty water, sea ice will start melting at sea surface temperatures of -2°C (28.4°F). Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). 

As illustrated by the image below, the air temperature was -1.2°C or 29.8°F off the coast of Wilkes Land, Antarctica (green circle), on December 14, 2025 (03:00 UTC).


Both sea ice extent and concentration are currently low at both poles, contributing to high temperatures, since less sunlight gets reflected back into space and is instead absorbed by the surface. This spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which is expected to reach its minimum in February 2026.

The image on the right shows Antarctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, with the danger that this will in turn trigger an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026.

The combination image below shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, by the University of Bremen (left) and by NSIDC (right). The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange. 

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on December 15, 2025. 

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Also, there must be an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months. 

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026. 

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.


Moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself can make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

Methane

The methane danger is illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 13, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.



The methane danger is discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost can add significantly and abruptly to the temperature rise.  

Temperature rise

The image below shows the November 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, based on ERA5 data. 


The Land-Only temperature anomaly versus 1880-1920 through November 2025 shows 1.5°C crossed for most months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2023 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2030 if this trend continues (dashed extension).


Sure, the 1880-1920 base used in above image is not pre-industrial. An even more scary picture emerges when calculating the NASA Land Only temperature anomalies with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through November 2025, as done in the image below, which shows the 1.5°C threshold crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2028 if this trend continues (dashed extension). 



Notes:
• Land-only? Using land-only anomalies is important, since most people do live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. When calculating the anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on land only, the anomaly will be even higher. The two images below show a 0.5°C difference between the global anomaly and the anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere for the November 2025 anomaly.
• 1880-1890 base? The 1880-1890 base is not pre-industrial, yet it is more illustrative than NASA's default 1951-1980; when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, temperature anomalies are likely to be even higher (see also the boxes on the image below). 
• Red dashed line stops in 2028? The red dashed line stops in 2028 as it points at 3°C (top dotted line) crossed in 2028, which is an important threshold as humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in an earlier post.  
• Lowess trend? The Lowess trend is used by NASA by default. The dashed red line is a linear extension of the Lowess trend and points at 3°C threshold crossed in 2028, but a non-linear trend and its extension may point at an even earlier year (see also this comment).  
• NASA image? The background image is a screenshot of an image custom-made at data.giss.nasa.gov by Sam Carana; the blue textbox and the dashed and dotted lines are added for clarity.
• Timeline from 2022 to 2030? The timeline starts at 2022 as the image shows the 1.5°C threshold (bottom dotted line) to be crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares) and the Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold (middle dotted line) was crossed in 2022. The timeline stops at 2030, as many politicians plan for emissions by people to continue to 2030 (and beyond), even though there may be no humans left by then, as the image illustrates. 
• La Niña/El Niño? While the 2025 anomalies were reached in the absence of El Niño conditions elevating temperatures, the next El Niño may emerge in the course of 2026 (see above).

The November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980. The anomaly would be significantly higher when calculated from 1850-1900 (the period typically used by the IPCC as base), and even higher when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

[ update of image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The Northern Hemisphere November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.82°C higher than 1951-1980, and 0.5°C higher than the global anomaly, as illustrated by the image below.  

The above images also include boxes with a diagram and associated text from an earlier post, with more details regarding the size of the historic temperature rise and of the rise to come soon. 

Clearly, the Northern Hemisphere Land Only temperature anomaly is a lot higher than the global temperature anomaly, which is important since most people live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

The image below illustrates the schism between the Climate Plan and the Status Quo. 


What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• ClimateReanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Prediction

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) 

• ECMWF

• Zach Labe - Antarctic sea ice extent and concentration 

• Saltier water, less sea ice

• The danger of abrupt eruptions of seafloor methane

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html






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