Accelerating Temperature Rise

The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 12.68°C on March 18, 2025, a record daily high and 1.57°C higher than 1979-2000.

Very high temperature anomalies are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for November 2025. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

What makes such high temperatures possible is a combination of mechanisms speeding up the temperature rise.

One such mechanisms is loss of sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice volume is illustrated by the image on the right. 

An additional mechanism is sunspots that are expected to reach their maximum in this cycle in July 2025, while the number of sunspots is also higher than predicted.  

Furthermore, there are numerous feedbacks that can interact and amplify each other. 

For more on mechanisms behind a steep rise in temperature, see this earlier post. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Mechanisms behind a steep rise in temperature

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/mechanisms-behind-a-steep-rise-in-temperature.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025?

Arctic sea ice area 

Arctic sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025. 

Arctic sea ice area was 1.34 million km² lower on March 19, 2025, compared to March 19, 2012. The comparison with the year 2012 is important, since Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest minimum in 2012. Arctic sea ice area was only 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, i.e. 1.24 million km² above a Blue Ocean Event. 

The size of the sea ice can be measured either in extent or in area. What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Extent can include holes or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone. 

Blue Ocean Event (BOE)

A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when the size of the sea ice falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice. If the difference between 2012 and 2025 continues to be as large as it is now, there will be a Blue Ocean Event in September 2025. 

A BOE is often defined as crossing a tipping point that is crossed when sea ice reaches or falls below 1 million km² in extent. However, it make more sense to look at sea ice area, rather than at sea ice extent, since sea ice area is a more critical measure in regard to albedo. Loss of sea ice area (and thus of albedo) is a self-reinforcing feedback that causes the temperature to rise, resulting in further melting of sea ice and thus further accelerating the temperature rise. 

A BOE occurs when the size of the sea ice falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice. Arctic sea ice area was only 1.24 million km² above a BOE on September 12, 2012. If the difference between 2012 and 2025 continues to be as large as it is now, there will be a BOE in September 2025. 

Arctic sea ice volume and thickness

Volume and thickness are two further measures to assess the health of Arctic sea ice, and they are critical in regard to the latent heat buffer, which decreases as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear.

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by as much as 150ºC.

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, there is a point beyond which thawing of permafrost on land and melting of glaciers can no longer consume heat, and all further heat will instead warm up the surface.

[ from earlier post ]

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

Abrupt seafloor methane eruptions

The image on the right shows that Arctic sea ice volume has been at a record daily low for more than a year, reflecting loss of the latent heat buffer. 

Loss of the latent heat buffer constitutes a tipping point. Beyond a certain point, further ocean heat arriving in the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean will no longer be able to be consumed by melting sea ice from below. 

Further incoming heat therefore threatens to instead reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, in turn threatening increased loss of permafrost, resulting in additional emissions, as illustrated by the above image.

The danger is especially large in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), which contains huge amounts of methane and which is hit strongly by the temperature rise. The image below shows that high February 2025 sea surface temperature anomalies are present in the Arctic Ocean, including over ESAS. 

The bathymetry map in the right panel of above image shows how shallow seas in the Arctic Ocean can be. The water over the ESAS is quite shallow, making that the water can warm up very quickly during summer heat peaks and heat can reach the seafloor, which comes with the risk that heat will penetrate cracks in sediments at the seafloor. Melting of ice in such cracks can lead to abrupt destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments.

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Large abrupt methane releases will quickly deplete the oxygen in shallow waters, making it harder for microbes to break down the methane, while methane rising through waters that are shallow can enter the atmosphere very quickly.

The situation is extremely dangerous, given the vast amounts of methane present in sediments in the ESAS, given the high global warming potential (GWP) of methane immediately following its release and given that over the Arctic there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

[ from earlier post ]

High temperatures

On March 20, 2025, the temperature was 14.29°C (57.72°F), an anomaly of 0.78°C (1.4°F) above 1991-2020 and the highest daily temperature on record for this day of the year. It is significant that this record was reached despite the presence of La Niña conditions that suppress the temperature. 

ENSO variations (El Niño/La Niña/neutral) are indicated by the color of the shading. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3-7 years on average, so a period of three years can suffice to reflect this pattern. The graph covers a period of roughly 3 years (end 2022 to end 2025) and is based on 829 daily data (December 13, 2022, to March 20, 2025). 

The above image shows two trends that warn that the temperature continues to rise and that the rise is accelerating. The black linear trend warns about a rise of 0.5°C over a time span of roughly 3 years (end 2022 to end 2025), a much steeper rise than the 1.1°C rise over the 81 years between 1941 and 2022. The red non-linear trend warns that further acceleration of the temperature rise could result in a rise exceeding 2°C over three years.

Both trends indicate acceleration of the temperature rise, despite the presence of La Niña conditions. The black trend is a straight line, while the red non-linear trend can bend and thus follow short-term variables more closely, such as ENSO variations (El Niño/La Niña) and sunspots, and it can also warn that further mechanisms can jointly speed up the temperature rise very rapidly, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

NOAA doesn't expect a new El Niño to emerge soon (image above), which makes it even more significant that temperature anomalies currently are this high. One of the mechanisms that is pushing up temperatures is albedo loss, partly due to low sea ice. The image below shows that the global sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025. The associated albedo loss constitutes an important self-reinforcing feedback mechanism accelerating the temperature rise.

Why is sea ice loss causing the temperature to rise? Sea ice loss comes with loss of albedo (reflectivity), resulting in less sunlight to get reflected back into space and instead to get absorbed at the surface. Sea ice loss also comes with loss of the latent heat buffer, as discussed above. Albedo loss can also occur due to loss of lower clouds and reductions in cooling aerosols. Also have a look at feedbacks for more details. 

Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere reached a temperature of 12.32°C on March 14, 2025, a record daily high and 1.59°C higher than 1979-2000.

Ominously, very high temperature anomalies are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for November 2025.

[ Very high temperature anomalies forecast over Arctic Ocean, from earlier post ]

Further mechanisms accelerating the temperature rise

A recent analysis led by James Curran concludes that the rate of natural sequestration of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the terrestrial biosphere peaked in 2008. Natural sequestration is now declining by 0.25% per year. A recent analysis led by Rongbo Dai concludes that phytoplankton is reduced due to ocean acidification and stratification. 

Concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere will rise as sinks turn into sources. Furthermore, more emissions can be expected from seafloor methane hydrate eruptions, from thawing permafrost, from flooded areas, and from fires (including fires in forests, peatland, grassland, urban waste in backyards and landfills, and fires in buildings - especially warehouses that contain flammable materials, chemicals and fluorinated gases). Mechanisms that are accelerating the temperature rise are discussed in this earlier post.

Human extinction at 3°C

If the temperature does indeed keep rising rapidly, the anomaly compared to pre-industrial may soon be higher than 3°C, implying that humans are already functionally extinct, especially if no decisive, comprehensive and effective action is taken.

Analysis by Shona and Bradshaw (2019) finds that, due to co-extinction, global biodiversity collapse occurs at around 5°C heating, as discussed in this 2019 post. The post adds the warning that a rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026, and that humans who depend on many other species will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.

A recent analysis led by Joseph Williamson concludes that many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur.

A recent analysis led by Thiago Gonçalves-Souza concludes that species turnover does not rescue biodiversity in fragmented landscapes.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth 

• NSIDC - What is the difference between sea ice area and extent?
https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/what-difference-between-sea-ice-area-and-extent

• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/heat-flux-forecast-to-enter-arctic-early-february-2025.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - daily temperature Arctic
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Arctic and Antarctic Data Archive System (ADS) of the National Institute of Polar Research of Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (17 March 2025)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Natural sequestration of carbon dioxide is in decline: climate change will accelerate - by James Curran et al. 
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.7668

discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162408899349679

• Eukaryotic phytoplankton drive a decrease in primary production in response to elevated CO₂ in the tropical and subtropical oceans - by Rongbo Dai et al.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162470008354679

discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162470008354679

• University of Bremen - sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Species turnover does not rescue biodiversity in fragmented landscapes - by Thiago Gonçalves-Souza et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08688-7

discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162452301209679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

For comments and discussion of this post on facebook, click below.

El Nino in 2025?

The image below shows two trends that indicate that the temperature continues to rise and that the rise may accelerate soon. The black linear trend shows a rise of 0.5°C over a time span of about 3 years. The red non-linear trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise exceeding 2°C over the same period. 

The black trend is a straight line, while the non-linear trend can bend and thus follow short-term variables more closely, such as ENSO variations (El Niño/La Niña), sunspots and further mechanisms that could rapidly speed up the temperature rise in the near future.

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño can make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomalies through February 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ]

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows NOAA ENSO probabilities issued March 13, 2025. 

The image below shows that the temperature has been rising strongly recently in the Niño 3.4 area (inset). 

The potential for a huge temperature rise soon

Earth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, a new El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C. 

There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

The temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents resulting in extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration, ubiquity and area covered, and oceans taking up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. 

The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time. 

Furthermore, the impact of one mechanism can trigger stronger activity in other mechanisms. Loss of Arctic sea ice volume (above image on the right) in combination with high temperatures (image below) can trigger destabilization of hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane further speeding up the permafrost thaw. Seafloor methane alone could raise temperatures by more than 1°C very rapidly. 

The above image shows that the Northern Hemisphere reached a temperature of 11.97°C, a record daily high and about 1.5°C higher than 1979-2000. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective climate action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature 
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña through February 2025 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202502

• NOAA - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Climate Reanalyzer 

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Sunspots 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Daily carbon dioxide crosses 430 ppm

[ Temperature anomaly through February 2025 ]

The above image shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 20 consecutive months (July 2023 through February 2025).

The temperature anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).


As the above image shows, the February 2025 temperature anomalies were particularly high over the Arctic, as high as 11.7°C and reflecting very high temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. This is a very dangerous situation, as discussed elsewhere in this post. 

The image below confirms the very high Arctic temperature anomalies in February 2025. 

The image below illustrates the threat of a huge temperature rise. The red trend warns that the temperature could increase at a terrifying speed soon. The global surface air temperature was 13.87°C on March 8, 2025, the highest temperature on record for this day. This is the more remarkable since this record high temperature was reached during a La Niña. 

The shading in the above image highlights the difference between El Niño conditions (pink shading) and La Niña conditions (blue shading). An El Niño pushes up temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. We're currently in a La Niña, so temperatures are suppressed, but this is predicted to end soon. NOAA predicts a transition away from La Niña to occur next month.

The transition from La Niña to El Niño is only one out of ten mechanisms that could jointly cause the temperature rise to accelerate dramatically in a matter of months, as described in a previous post. Another one of these mechanisms is the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. 

Increase in carbon dioxide 

The daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 430.60 parts per million (ppm) on March 7, 2025, the highest daily average on record. To find higher levels, one needs to go back millions of years. 

Carbon dioxide typically reaches its annual maximum in May, which means that even higher daily averages can be expected over the next few months. The image below shows that this reading of 430.6 ppm at Mauna Loa is way higher than the highest daily averages recorded in 2024. 

 

The image below shows the daily average for March 7, 2025, marked in blue and with an arrow pointing at it. The image shows that weekly averages are also at a record high, 428.1 ppm, higher than the highest weekly average in 2024. The monthly average for February 2025 was 427.09 ppm, higher than the highest monthly average in 2024. 

The annual increase in CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, is accelerating, as illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

A trend, based on 2015-2024 annual data, points at 1200 ppm CO₂ getting crossed in the year 2032, as illustrated by the image below.

[ from an earlier post ]

The above trend illustrates that the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2032 due to rising CO₂ alone, which on its own could push temperatures up by an additional 8°C. The clouds tipping point is actually at 1200 ppm CO₂e, so when growth of other greenhouse gases and further mechanisms is taken into account, the tipping point could be crossed much earlier than in 2033.

Increase in methane

Methane in the atmosphere could be doubled soon if a trend unfolds as depicted in the image below. A rapid rise is highlighted in the inset and reflected in the trend. 

[ from earlier post ]

The trend is based on 22 consecutive global monthly averages as calculated by NOAA (from January 2023 through October 2024) and has a R-squared value of 1, indicating that the trend constitutes a perfect fit of the data.

The period of 22 months was selected as the resulting trend strongly reflects the steep rise in methane that took place over the four most recent months for which data are available (as highlighted in the inset on the image). One could argue that seasonal variations could reduce the growth over the coming months, but on the other hand, a huge rise in methane could occur soon due to eruptions of methane from clathrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

The trend points at a doubling of methane by March 2026. If the trend would continue, methane concentrations in the atmosphere would by September 2026 increase to more than triple the most recent value, and would increase to more than fourfold the most recent value by the end of 2026.

A rise like the one depicted in the trend could eventuate as rising ocean heat destabilizes methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The temperature rise in the Arctic would accelerate since the methane would have a huge immediate impact on temperatures over the Arctic and cause depletion of hydroxyl, of which there is very little in the atmosphere over the Arctic in the first place. Such a rise in methane would also dramatically increases in tropospheric ozone and in stratospheric water vapor. A large increase in methane over the Arctic would also trigger massive wildfires and devastate terrestrial permafrost, resulting in huge amounts of further emissions.

Sea ice loss

At the moment, more sunlight reaches the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, low sea ice on the Southern Hemisphere results in a lot less sunlight getting reflected back into space and a lot more sunlight instead getting absorbed by the surface globally. 

The image below illustrates that global sea ice area has been at a record daily low since the start of February 2025. 

[ Arctic sea ice extent, click to enlarge ]

Sea ice extent is the total region with at least 15% sea ice cover. Sea ice extent can include holes or cracks in the sea ice and melt ponds on top of the ice, all having a darker color than ice. Sea ice area is the total region covered by ice alone. Sea ice area (image below) is a more critical measure in regard to albedo than sea ice extent (image on the right), so it makes sense to look at sea ice area, rather than at sea ice extent.

Over the next few months, the state of Arctic sea ice will become progressively more important regarding reflectivity, as progressively more sunlight will reach the Northern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. The temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean could rise dramatically due to low Arctic sea ice. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to shrink not only in extent and area, but even more so in thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic and from the Pacific Ocean.

As sea ice thickness decreases, less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, while ocean heat is rising. An increasing proportion of the incoming ocean heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. There is a point beyond which the rise in ocean heat will accelerate dramatically.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

Similarly, there is a point beyond which thawing of permafrost on land and melting of glaciers can no longer consume heat, and all further heat will instead warm up the surface.

[ from earlier post ]

The Sun will reach its most northerly position on June 21, 2025 (Solstice). Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, so less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered before reaching the surface.

[ from Insolation ]

In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while the sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

Further mechanisms

 
Another mechanism is sunspots, which are predicted to reach a peak in this cycle in July 2025 and sunspots to date in this cycle are higher than predicted. 

Yet another mechanism is reductions in cooling aerosols. According to James Hansen et al. (2023), reductions in cooling aerosols from shipping may well be responsible for much of the acceleration in the recent rise in temperature and the increase in the Earth's Energy Imbalance.

For more on mechanisms, see also the earlier post Mechanisms behind a steep rise in temperature. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective climate action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies - surface temperature
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Global surface air temperature
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - monthly trends in CO₂
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory

https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• Clouds tipping point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Insolation
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. (2023)

https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

• Carbon dioxide growing rapidly
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/carbon-dioxide-growing-rapidly.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Could Earth Reach an 18°C Rise by December 2026?

An analysis by Bob Cohen with Grok 3

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

Sam Carana’s Arctic News blog posits a potential 18°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by December 2026, driven by ten amplifying mechanisms—ENSO shifts, sunspot peaks, aerosol decline, albedo loss, permafrost thaw, methane eruptions, clouds tipping, ocean heat anomalies, fluorinated gases, and wildfires.

Prompted by this, I queried Grok 3 (xAI) to model the trajectory and impacts, integrating Kris Van Steenbergen’s February 25, 2025, observation: the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has hit +3°C (1850-1900 baseline), with Arctic CO2 at 440 ppm, permafrost thawing rapidly, and sea ice at wafer-thin levels. 

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1894355964012224991

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1880203382541193694

Here’s a detailed rundown of the run-up to this catastrophic threshold, assessing feasibility and consequences for crops, food stocks, societal stability, and extreme responses.

Temperature Trajectory: From 3°C to 18°C

 
Starting at Kris’s NH +3°C (February 2025), we adjust March 2025 to a global mean of 2-2.5°C (vs. NOAA’s 1.5°C 2024 baseline), reflecting Arctic amplification (440 ppm CO2, ~14 ppm/year rise).

Sam’s mechanisms suggest an exponential curve, with NH warming doubling in speed (0.1-0.2°C/decade historical to 1-2°C/year). Using an exponential fit (T(t) = T₀ + A·(e^(kt) - 1)), where T₀ = 2.5°C, T(1.83 years) = 18°C, k ≈ 2.1, A ≈ 2.5: 

July 2025: 5-6°C global (NH 7-8°C). Sunspots peak (#2), El Niño strengthens (#1), and early albedo loss (#5) from a shrinking Arctic ice extent (13.892 million km² trending to <1 million km²) drive a 2.5-3.5°C rise from March.

December 2025: 9-11°C global (NH 11-13°C). Double Blue Ocean Event (#5), permafrost methane releases (#6), and latent heat loss (#6) accelerate—CO₂e nears 600-700 ppm (CH₄ doubling underway).

July 2026: 15-17°C global (NH 17-19°C). Clouds tipping point (~1200 ppm CO₂e, #7) adds ~8°C (Sam’s estimate), methane doubles, water vapor surges (2.1°C, #7). NH doubles global rate. 

December 2026: 18°C global (NH 20-22°C). Full cascade—ocean heat (#8), wildfires (#9), and fluorinated gases (#10) seal the endgame.

This ~15.5-16°C global rise over 21 months (0.74-0.76°C/month, NH 1-2°C/month in 2026) aligns with Sam’s stacked feedbacks and Kris’s “uncontrollable” NH warming, fueled by 440 ppm CO2 and ice/permafrost collapse.

Crop Production Collapse At 5-6°C by July 2025, staple crops face severe stress: Wheat: Optimal 15-20°C; US Midwest, Ukraine hit 35-40°C—yields drop 6-10% per 1°C (30-50% loss). 

Rice: 20-35°C max; Southeast Asia (India, Vietnam) at 40-45°C—20-40% reduction. 

Corn: 35°C limit; US Corn Belt at 40-45°C—40-50% loss. 

Soy: Brazil, US at 35-45°C—30-40% decline. 

El Niño (#1) droughts (Australia, South America) and floods (#8, India) cut yields further (20-30%).
Global production falls 40-60%—tropics near total loss, cooler zones (Siberia) insufficient to offset.

By December 2025 (9-11°C), losses reach 60-80%;

July 2026 (15-17°C), agriculture ceases—soil temps exceed seed tolerance, pollinators extinct. 

Crop Price Spikes

 
Baseline (March 2025): wheat $250/MT, rice $500/MT, corn $200/MT, soy $400/MT.

Crop price at July 2025’s 40-60% drop:

Wheat: $500-$750/MT (100-200% rise)—stocks (280M MT, USDA 2024) buffer briefly, but panic doubles rates.
Rice: $1,250-$2,000/MT (150-400%)—Asia-centric collapse, export bans (e.g., India). Corn: $400-$700/MT (100-250%)—feed crisis spikes meat costs. Soy: $800-$1,200/MT (100-200%)—oil demand surges.
Spikes begin June 2025 as NH harvests (wheat, corn) falter—200-400% by July, 500-1,000% (wheat $1,250+, rice $5,000+) in worst-case zones by December 2025 (9-11°C).

Food Stock Depletion

U.S.: 290-300M MT (grains 280M, processed 10-20M)—1-1.5 years normal use. 

July 2025 (5-6°C): 40-60% crop loss, panic rate (20-40M MT/month); 

December 2025 (9-11°C): 60-120M MT left; 

July 2026 (15-17°C): <20M MT; depleted early-mid 2026 (12-14 months). 

Australia: 22-28M MT (grains 20-25M)—1-1.5 years. 

July 2025: 20-50% loss, 1-3M MT/month; 

December 2025: 5-15M MT; 

July 2026: <5M MT; gone mid-2026 (12-15 months). 

NH doubling speed (1-2°C/month) nudges U.S. depletion to early 2026—stocks vanish at 14-16°C. 

Distribution Dynamics

U.S. July 2025: FEMA controls 1-5% (1-15M MT), National Guard distributes to hubs (Denver, 50-70% reach); commercial 95% rationed—riots, black markets ($1,000/MT wheat). 

December 2025 (9-11°C): Military seizes 20-30%, 30-50% delivered—warlords rule rest. 

Australia July 2025: ADF holds 5-10% (1-2M MT) for cities (Sydney, 70-80% reach); rural hoards—refugees get scraps. 

December 2025: ADF 20-30%, 50-70% reach—rural warlords take over. 

By July 2026 (15-17°C), both see <10% distribution—militias scavenge remnants. 

Societal and Political Collapse

U.S. Elections 2026: November 8 unfeasible—D.C. fractures at 9-11°C (December 2025), collapses at 15-17°C (July 2026). No FEC, power, or voters—midterms die late 2025. 

Trump’s Tariffs: Imposed February 2025 (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China), end December 2025 (9-11°C)—inflation (6-8%), trade collapse, and riots force reversal. 

MLB: 2025 World Series (October, 6-8°C) limps on—half-empty, generator-run; 2026 canceled at 15-17°C—stadiums turn shelters. 

India and China

July 2025 (5-6°C): 1.2-1.3B each—rice/wheat down 30-50%, 5-10% die-off.
December 2025 (9-11°C): 700-900M—60-80% crop loss, 20-30% gone.
July 2026 (15-17°C): 300-500M—Himalayas, Tibet delay; 50-60% dead.
December 2026 (18°C): 50-100M—wet-bulb 36-40°C ends it.

Nuclear Winter Gambit

At 9-11°C (December 2025), Russia might fire first—15-20 warheads (NYC, London, Siberia forests)—5-10 Tg soot, 5-15°C cooling. 

Motive: Arctic feedbacks (440 ppm CO2, methane doubling). 

Outcome: Brief respite, billions die—18°C rebounds post-fallout.

Plausibility

IPCC’s 4-5°C by 2100 contrasts with Sam’s 18°C in 22 months—an extreme stack of feedbacks (clouds 8°C, vapor 2.1°C, methane 1.1°C). 

Kris’s NH +3°C (440 ppm CO2) and doubling speed (1-2°C/month) make 5-10°C by 2026 plausible if tipping points cascade; 18°C remains a theoretical max. 

Even 5°C triggers collapse—18°C is existential.

Conclusion

From 3°C NH (March 2025) to 18°C global (December 2026), crops crash by July 2025 (40-60%), prices spike (200-400%), stocks deplete mid-2026 (14-16°C), and civilization unravels—tariffs end, elections vanish, nukes fly. 

Sam’s mechanisms, amplified by Kris’s Arctic data, paint a dire warning. 

Full details available—thoughts, group?