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| [ high temperatures over the North Pole, click on images to enlarge ] |
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| [ high anomalies over the North Pole ] |
A heat flux entered the Arctic early February 2025 causing the temperature at the North Pole to rise to above freezing point, up to 34°C above 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above images by Climate Reanalyzer.
The image on the right shows a North Pole view, with the white area within the light pink color over the Arctic indicating an anomaly of 34°C.
The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and much of this heat can move toward the Arctic due to a sudden acceleration of prevailing wind and ocean currents, an acceleration that is due to deformation of the Jet Stream.
Rising temperatures come with several feedbacks, one of which is deformation of the Jet Stream.
As a result, the movement of heat toward the Arctic can at times be accelerated abruptly by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right showing the situation on February 2, 2025 18Z (wind speed at 250 hPa, Jet Stream).
The image below shows high temperatures hitting the North Pole (green circle) on February 2, 2025 17:00 UTC, i.e. 2.1°C (35.9°F) at 1000 hPa (left panel) and 1.0°C (33.7°F) at surface level (right panel).
The left panel also shows the wind speed at the North Pole (51 km/h), while the right panel also shows the ocean current moving warm water along the coasts of Norway and Svalbard, as an extension of the Gulf Stream.
As warmer water flows into the Arctic Ocean, Arctic sea ice loses volume, which diminishes its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that less incoming ocean heat can be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, resulting in higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
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| [ from earlier post ] |
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| [ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ] |
Rising temperatures come with many feedbacks, and they can contribute strongly to the further acceleration of the temperature rise. One example is more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below, showing the average precipitable water anomaly on February 2, 2025.
The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent up to January 31, 2025, when it was at a record low for the time of year.
During the first few months of the year, Arctic sea ice is still growing in extent. In the above image, the red line and red marker shows 2025 sea ice extent. Dots mark Arctic sea ice extent on January 19 for the respective year and Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on January 19, 2025, despite La Niña conditions.
A new El Niño may emerge in the course of 2025, while both Arctic sea ice extent and volume are at record low, while numerous self-reinforcing feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity and while further mechanisms drive up temperatures such as high sunspots. Such a combination of mechanisms could cause a huge temperature rise and a Blue Ocean Event in 2025, threatening huge amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor.
A huge temperature rise
Copernicus issued the January 31, 2025 temperature anomaly, as illustrated by the image below.
Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.
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| [ temperatures keep rising, despite La Niña, click on images to enlarge ] |
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.29°C on January 26, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
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| [ from earlier post ] |
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| [ Top: Extreme risk impact, adapted from Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk (2025). Bottom: 5.163°C rise, climatereanalyzer.org image ] |
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
Links
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Why downplay the need for action?
• Extinction
• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162300677224679
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162300677224679
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
