The image below shows the temperature rise from end 2022 through February 23, 2025, with trends added.
The shading in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions (pink shading) that push up temperatures, La Niña conditions (blue shading) that suppress temperatures, or neutral conditions (gray shading). Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend that shows a steady rise of about 0.5°C over the three years from end 2022 to end 2025.
This rise of 0.5°C over just 3 years (black linear trend in above image) is a much steeper rise than the black linear trend in the image below, which shows a rise of 1.1°C over the 81 years from 1941 to 2022.
As said, the recent rise in temperature depicted by the black linear trend in the image at the top is much steeper than the rise from 1941-2022 in the above image. The image at the top also features a red trend that warns that an even steeper rise could occur soon, as a result of the joint impact of at least ten mechanisms.
1. ENSO changes - a transition away from the current La Niña conditions
2. Sunspots - higher than expected and reaching their peak in the current cycle in July 2025
3. Cooling aerosols - being reduced
4. Earth's Energy Imbalance - very high and rising, as illustrated by the image below.
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| [ Image from Berkeley Earth: Earth's Energy Imbalance is accelerating the temperature rise ] |
The above image is from Berkeley Earth and also features in an earlier post, illustrating the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise and thus also in reducing lower clouds.
6. More water vapor - as the temperature rise from pre-industrial turns out to be higher
The above image illustrates that the February 2024 temperature was potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial. A much higher rise from pre-industrial than the rise mentioned in the IPCC assessment reports would come with much more water vapor in the atmosphere. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, since 7% more water vapor will be in the atmosphere for every 1°C warming. Extra water vapor will further amplify the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas.
8. Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear.
Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.
Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.
The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by as much as 150ºC.
Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, there is a point beyond which thawing of permafrost and melting of glaciers can no longer consume heat, and all further heat will instead warm up the surface.
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| [ from earlier post ] |
The image on the right shows Arctic sea ice volume up to February 24, 2025. Arctic sea ice volume in 2024 and 2025 has been much lower than in previous years.
More incoming heat therefore threatens to reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as illustrated by the above image and as included in the point below.
More incoming heat therefore threatens to reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as illustrated by the above image and as included in the point below.
9. More emissions from the environment - as sinks turn into sources, and as there are more emissions from methane hydrate eruptions, from thawing permafrost, from flooded areas, and from fires (including fires in forests, peatland, grassland, urban waste in backyards and landfills, and fires in buildings, especially in warehouses containing flammable materials and chemicals), as temperatures keep rising.
10. More emissions from human action and inaction - as more people start to realize how dire the situation is and as they seek to occupy the most habitable areas left. A recent analysis estimates that just the emissions from the war in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion rival the annual emissions of four European nations combined (i.e. Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia). More emissions may also result from more biofuel and wood getting burned in vehicles, heaters and power plants, as it becomes harder to obtain fossil fuel and as the grid shuts down, due to conflicts and people no longer showing up for work.
Ominously, very high temperature anomalies are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for November 2025.
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| [ Very high temperature anomalies forecast over Arctic Ocean, from earlier post ] |
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
Links
https://climate.copernicus.eu
• Berkeley Earth - Global Temperature Report for 2024
• Sea ice loss
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/sea-ice-loss.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Arctic and Antarctic Data Archive System (ADS) of the National Institute of Polar Research of Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• Forest fires push up greenhouse gas emissions from war in Ukraine
• Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
