Arctic News: pre-industrial

Showing posts with label pre-industrial. Show all posts

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Will humans go extinct soon?

The image below shows the June 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, using ERA5 data.

[ June 2025 temperature anomaly, click on images to enlarge ]

[ from earlier post, click to enlarge ]

The above image shows relatively low anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, with a relatively cool area persisting in the North Atlantic, south of Greenland. This appears to reflect heavy melting, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and strong evaporation followed by more rainfall further down the track of the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The above image also shows very high anomalies over Antarctica and over the Antarctic sea ice. This appears to reflect a reversal of the Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC).

[ marine heatwave in North Pacific ]

The image on the right shows that the sea surface temperature was as much as 7.5°C (13.4°F) higher than 1981-2011 on July 16, 2025, 12:00 UTC, at the location marked by the green circle, reflecting a strong marine heatwave in the North Pacific. The image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa).

[ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ]

Rising temperatures result in a loss of carbon storage, concludes a recent study led by Thomas Werner into marine heatwaves.

Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, our global ocean has absorbed 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades due to increasing greenhouse gases, and the top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere, as described by a NASA post.

A small change in this ratio could result in a huge rise in the global air temperature, and studies warn about changes that are occurring in the AMOC and SMOC, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

A 2024 study led by Judd finds that climate sensitivity has historically been about 8°C. According to James Hansen, equilibrium global warming for today’s amount of greenhouse gases is 10°C, which includes a 2°C rise that would eventuate by the falling away of the aerosols that currently mask the temperature rise.

[ NOAA ENSO outlook ]

Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps down-playing the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds, water vapor, sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn that the temperature is likely to rise strongly with a new El Niño and with further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, triggering numerous feedbacks to kick in and more extreme weather events to strike with greater ferocity, frequency and ubiquity.

For now, ENSO-neutral conditions dominate and are expected to persist during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2025-2026 (image right).

The current ENSO-neutral conditions make it even more significant that on July 14, 2025, the global temperature was 16.86°C, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The earlier image below shows a preliminary 16.85°C that was later upgraded to 16.86°C (final). The point is that this is a record high for that day and 0.3°C below the highest daily temperature on record (17.16°C) that was reached on July 22, 2024 (image adapted from Copernicus).

The image below shows monthly temperature anomalies through June 2025, based on ERA5 anomalies vs 1951-1980 from Jan 2014-June 2025 (red circles).

In the above image, data are adjusted by 1°C to reflect a pre-industrial base (black circles). Cubic trends are added to show that 3°C could be crossed late 2028 (red) or early 2027 (black).

The image below shows surface air temperature anomalies April 1, 2023, through July 14, 2025 (final), with a red trend added that warns about a potentially huge temperature rise later in 2025.

Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are on the rise again. The image below shows the global sea surface temperature through July 20, 2025 (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E).

How much could temperatures rise? The image below is a combination image. The top image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2022. The bottom image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2023. The trend in the bottom image shows an even steeper rise than the trend in the top image. This shows that a polynomial trend can sometimes be a good indicator of the rise to come.

The image below repeats the IPCC's response, or rather its failure to respond.

A 3°C rise constitutes an important threshold, since humans will likely go extinct with such a rise. As illustrated by the image below, we may already be more than 2°C above pre-industrial and face a potentially huge temperature rise over the next few years.

[ from the post When will humans go extinct? ]

[ from: When Will We Die? ]

Recent research led by David Fastivich finds that, historically, vegetation responded at timescales from hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but not at timescales shorter than about 150 years. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt - far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapidly warming world.

Note that vegetation depends on the presence of a lot of things including healthy soil, microbes, moisture, nutrients and habitat.

A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). Humans, who depend on a lot of other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C, as discussed in the earlier post When Will We Die?

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Saltier water, less sea ice
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/saltier-water-less-sea-ice.html

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Marine heatwaves as hot spots of climate change and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services - by Thomas Wernberg et al.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s44358-025-00058-5

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162992131044679

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NASA - Ocean warming (December 2024)
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/?intent=121

• Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025? (update June 2025)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/06/arctic-blue-ocean-event-2025-update-June-2025.html

• A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature by Emily Judd et al. (2024)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161741588279679

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al.
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161110558744679

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• When will humans go extinct?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html

• Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales - by David Fastovich et al. (2025)

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adr6700

discussed on Facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162972980774679

• When Will We Die?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Paris Agreement thresholds crossed (update May 2025)

High temperatures persist

In the image below, created with NASA data, the decade from 1904 through 1913 is used as a custom base, illustrating that the temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 22 months (July 2023 through April 2025), and even longer when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend (two-year Lowess Smoothing) that is pointing at 2°C above this base (1904-1913) getting crossed in the course of 2026.

[ trend points at 2°C above 1904-1913 getting crossed in 2026 ]

The temperature rise on land looks even more threatening, as illustrated by the image below.

The above image shows land only monthly temperature anomalies from 1880-1920, with the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) showing an acceleration in April 2022. If extended, the red line points at crossing 3°C in the course of 2026. Humans are likely to go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

An earlier analysis mentions that, when using 1750 as a base, this could add 0.3°C to the historic rise. The analysis adds that when using an even earlier base, even more could be added to the historic temperature rise.

Those who seek to delay or sabotage climate action typically call for use of a late base, in efforts to minimize the historic temperature rise. Using an earlier base can mean that temperatures are already higher than the thresholds that politicians at the adoption of the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed, and it can also imply that the temperature rise is accelerating faster and further, due to stronger feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere and disappearance of lower clouds, all of which would constitute a stronger call for climate action.

The image below illustrates that air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have been very high over the past few months, at times reaching record high temperatures for the time of year, e.g. the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 10.08°C on May 14, 2025, the highest temperature on record for that day.

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

These record high temperatures are the more significant as they were reached under ENSO-neutral conditions. On May 24, 2025, the sea surface temperature was 27.51°C, 0.35°C below 1991-2020, in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño, as illustrated by the image below. The Niño 3.4 anomaly is now lower than it has been for each day in March 2025, when La Niña conditions dominated.

The ENSO outlook below is dated May 8, 2025. It shows that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of 2025, edging on La Niña conditions.

The ENSO outlook is dated May 18, 2025.

As said, to see such high temperatures under ENSO-neutral conditions is significant, it indicates that feedbacks are stronger than many models have anticipated, which implies that feedbacks will continue to grow stronger, given the rapid temperature rise over the past few years (black trend). A new El Niño may develop soon, potentially in April 2026, as the red trend in the image below warns about. The result could be a huge rise in temperature over the course of 2026 (red trend).

As said, different bases can be used, e.g. in the above images anomalies are calculated versus bases such as 1904-1913, 1880-1920, 1991-2020 and 1901-2000. None of them is pre-industrial. So, what would the temperature anomaly look like when a genuinely pre-industrial base was used?

The image below, from an earlier post, uses NASA monthly data through March 2023. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

The image below is an update, the same adjustments are made to data through April 2025.

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above images is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]

The images show that, when adjusting the data and using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature rise may have already crossed both the 1.5°C and the 2°C thresholds that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged shouldn't and wouldn't be crossed.

IPCC keeps downplaying the danger

The IPCC keeps downplaying the danger in many ways. One way the IPCC does this is by selecting a base that minimizes the temperature rise and then to keep making the claim that we're still well below the 1.5°C threshold. The above image, from an April 2024 post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The red line (a six-months Lowess smoothing trend) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then. Minimizing the temperature rise will also minimize feedbacks that come with the temperature rise, such as a rise in water vapor and loss of lower clouds, which are self-amplifying feedbacks that further accelerate the temperature rise. In other words, by minimizing the historic temperature rise, the IPCC also seeks to minimize the rise to come.

[ from a 2014 post, click on images to enlarge ]

An additional way used by the IPCC to downplay the danger is to suggest there was a "carbon budget", as if there was an amount of carbon to be divided among polluters that could continue to be consumed for decades to come.

The image on the right, from a 2014 post, points at the fallacy and deceit that comes with a carbon budget, carbon credits, offsets and net-zero emission targets that would, according to the IPCC, accomplish and maintain a "balance" between sources and sinks.

Instead, comprehensive and effective action is needed on multiple lines of action, simultaneously yet separately.

Indeed, action is needed to reduce concentrations of carbon both in oceans and in the atmosphere, while on land, the soil carbon content needs to increase, which can best be achieved by methods such as pyrolysis of biowaste and adding the resulting biochar to the soil, to reduce emissions, reduce fire hazards, sequester carbon, support the presence of moisture & nutrients in the soil and thus support the health & growth of vegetation, as discussed at the Climate Plan group and the biochar group.

The IPCC has failed on at least three points:
1. failed to warn about the historic temperature rise and associated larger feedbacks

2. failed to warn about mechanisms that could cause further acceleration of temperature rise soon

3. failed to point at the best ways to combat climate change.

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

[ the temperature in the atmosphere can keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions ]

The above image illustrates how feedbacks and crossing of tipping points can cause the temperature of the atmosphere to keep rising, even in the absence of further emissions, due to shrinking heat sinks (e.g. sea ice thickness loss and oceans taking up less heat).

The IPCC failed to warn about Antarctic sea ice decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in an earlier post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

A 2024 study led by Norman Loeb finds that large decreases in stratocumulus and middle clouds over the sub-tropics and decreases in low and middle clouds at mid-latitudes are the primary reasons for increasing absorbed solar radiation trends in the northern hemisphere.

Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can cause more heat to accumulate at the ocean surface. Higher sea surface temperatures also come with greater stratification (image below, from earlier post).

Stratification and further changes in oceans and in wind patterns can cause a freshwater lid to form on top of the ocean surface, enabling more hot & salty water to flow underneath this lid (feedback #28), contributing to calving of glaciers and destabilization of sediments at the seafloor.

Increases in water vapor in the atmosphere, loss of sea ice and loss of lower clouds are three self-amplifying feedbacks, i.e. as temperatures rise, such feedbacks will push temperature up even further and due to their self-amplification, the temperature rise will accelerate.

Sea ice loss

One feedback of high temperatures and high concentrations of greenhouse gases is loss of sea ice. Polar amplification of the temperature rise is hitting the Arctic hard, and is also causing dramatic loss of Antarctic sea ice. Global sea ice area has been very low for the past few years, as illustrated by the image below. This has caused a lot of sunlight that was previously reflected back into space, to instead get absorbed by the sea surface. On May 24, 2025, global sea ice area was 17.75 million km², lowest on record for the day.

The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, shows that Arctic sea ice volume on May 29, 2025, was at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for more than a year.

Sea ice is disappearing over large parts of the Arctic Ocean. The image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows sea ice concentration on May 29, 2025.

The screenshot below, from an earlier post, further illustrates the dangers that come with sea ice loss. Eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is one of the most terrifying dangers.

As the image below illustrates, some of the thickest sea ice disappears from the Arctic Ocean as it gets broken up by sea currents and the pieces get moved out along the edges of Greenland. The image shows how, on May 27, 2025, the sea ice gets broken up just north of Greenland, due to ocean currents that will also move the pieces to the south, alongside the edges of Greenland, toward the North Atlantic.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Office of Satellite And Product Operations - Sea Surface Temperatures
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NASA - Worldview satellite images
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Should people be told?

The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at.

China is important, it has a large well-educated population and a large part of global emissions is released in China. Some countries face even more dire prospects. Have people been told how dire the situation is? The general lack of climate action around the world suggests that people have not been sufficiently informed. Moreover, many scientists, journalists, judges, politicians and civil servants bluntly refuse to inform people.

[ from earlier post ]

[ Top: Extreme risk impact, adapted from Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk (2025).
Bottom: 5.163°C rise, climatereanalyzer.org image, from earlier post ]

The image below shows the January 2025 temperature anomaly, compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base.

The image below shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 19 consecutive months (July 2023 through January 2025). The anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).

Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.

While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.33°C on February 11, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to and based on the data, despite La Niña.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

La Niña conditions are currently present. The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomaly through January 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ]

Despite the presence of La Niña, temperatures keep rising. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows a NOAA forecast dated February 13, 2025.

The potential for a huge temperature rise within a few months time

Earth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.

There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. Furthermore, the temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents that could cause extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration and area covered, and oceans to take up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time.

According to an earlier analysis, the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is?

Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

[ from earlier post ]

The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.

Antarctic sea ice is moving toward 1 million km² in area, a threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be declared in the Southern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Researchers on board the ship Sarmiento de Gamboa recently observed columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide. Researchers looked for leaks on the edges of Antarctica, according to a recent news report. “We have estimated that in this area there are some 24 gigatons of carbon accumulated in methane hydrates”, warns Roger Urgeles, of the Institute of Marine Sciences, based in Barcelona, leaders of the expedition.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event alone would dramatically increase Earth's Heat Imbalance. The combination of low sea ice area around Antarctica and in the Arctic looks set to cause a dramatic temperature rise over the coming months.

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

Persistently low global sea ice area therefore also threatens a Blue Ocean Event to occur in the Arctic later this year.

Ominously, Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing Arctic sea ice volume on February 15, 2025.

An Arctic Blue Ocean Event threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing eruptions of huge amounts of methane, with the resulting temperature rise in the Arctic causing permafrost on land to thaw strongly and abruptly, in turn causing additional greenhouse gas releases.

The above image shows methane as high as 2561 ppb at 399.1 mb recorded by the N21 satellite on February 5, 2025 am.

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]

The stacked bar chart on the right includes (at the bottom) a potential 2.29°C for the rise in temperature from pre-industrial to 2020.

A rise of 0.5°C is included for the additional CO₂ released through 2026 and for the rising impact of the recently emitted CO₂. Note that the chart was first conceived in 2016, so the impact of the CO₂ released from 2016 to today has meanwhile already eventuated.

Changes in aerosols are given the potential for a 1.9°C rise due to reductions in cooling aerosols (mainly sulfate), while a 0.6°C rise is included due to additional warming gases and aerosols.

In the bar chart, a potential rise of 1.6°C is reached by the end of 2026 as a result of snow and ice loss and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents.

An additional 1.1°C is reached as a result of eruption of methane from the seafloor, while additional greenhouse gas emissions result in a 0.35°C rise.

The temperature rise itself triggers further feedbacks such as an increase of water vapor in the atmosphere (2.1°C) and loss of lower clouds (8°C). Altogether, the rise could reach 18.44°C by the end of 2026. Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. at the extinction page. Note the above-mentioned warning that humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.