Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

The finger on the image below points at an area over Antarctica where a temperature anomaly of about +30°C was recorded on September 13, 2026.

The mechanism causing this very high temperature anomaly on Antarctica is an atmospheric river carrying warm, moist air from the Tropics to Antarctica, on the way taking up water vapor evaporating from the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Atmospheric rivers ]

Huge pressure differences facilitate such atmospheric rivers. The image on the right shows moisture flowing from high pressure areas near the Equator to low pressure areas over and around Antarctica. There are a number of causes behind these conditions, as described below.

High air temperatures

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 16, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.28°C or 79.3°F, an anomaly of 1.24°C or 2.23°F versus 1979-2000. The map (inset top right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the Tropics highlighted. 

High sea surface temperatures 

On the image below, there is barely any cold area left in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are now starting to rise strongly in the Southern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. Global warming is making things worse and the 2026 El Niño is making things even worse, with extra heat rising up into the atmosphere from oceans. Furthermore, as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down, Antarctic temperatures can be expected to increase, finds a recent study led by Da Nian.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as much as 8.8°C or 15.8°F higher than 1981-2011 south of Africa (at the green circle) on September 22, 2026.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 25, 2026, when the temperature was 29.82°C or 85.68°F, an anomaly of 3.16°C or 5.69°F versus 1982-2010, and 4.07°C higher than the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 25, 2026, around the globe with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is indicative for the development of El Niño.

The image below shows that a record high temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was reached on September 25, 2026, on a tier with November 17, 2015, when there was a strong El Niño. Note that the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026 and the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that on September 26, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 21.03°C or 69.85°F, an anomaly of 0.731°C or 1.316°F versus 1991-2020 and the highest anomaly on record, a bit (0.006°C) higher than the 0.725°C reached on January 10, 2024. 

[ -70°C near South Pole ]

The map (inset top right) on the above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on September 26, 2026, with high anomalies showing up across the globe.

Very cold in parts of Antarctica

In winter, temperatures are low in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and parts of Antarctica, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the Antarctica page. 

The temperature difference between areas at the Equator and parts of Antarctica can therefore be huge, deforming and increasing in strength the Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere, enabling the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica at great strength.

[ precipitable water standardized anomaly ]

The above image illustrates large temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole causing the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica. At the green circle, wind at 250 hPa is as fast as 259 km/h and Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 79 kW/m² on September 13, 2026.

More water vapor in the air

Water vapor in the air is increasing. High (and rising) temperatures result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Global atmospheric water vapor was at a record high of 27.35 kg/m² in August 2026, says Roberta Boscolo. The image on the right shows warm, moist air being carried in the form of an atmospheric river toward and over Antarctica on September 13, 2026.

Snowfall over Antarctica

The image below, from the Antarctica page, shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 16.9 kg/m² on August 25, 2026.

The amount of snow falling on Antarctica can be substantial. The image on the right shows August 2026 total precipitation, with some coastal regions of Antarctica receiving relatively high amounts of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, due to low temperatures, and thickening the snow layer. Most of the snowfall on Antarctica originates from evaporation from the Southern Ocean, making the surface of the Southern Ocean more saline. 

The image below shows that on September 12, 2026, a surface temperature of -0.3°C or 31.4°F was recorded near the coast of Antarctica (left), while a temperature of 5.2°C or 41.4°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa.

[ Relative humidity in the stratosphere ]

The image on the right shows an area in the stratosphere (at 70 hPa or at about 17.5 km altitude) with a relative humidity of 100% (at the green circle) giving an idea of the strength at which water vapor is getting pushed into the air over Antarctica.

At a relative humidity of 100%, water vapor turns into solid ice crystals, since the temperature of the moist air in the stratosphere is very low (-91.0°C or -131.8°F at the green circle).

Higher salinity in Southern Ocean

Water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and much of the resulting precipitation returns to the Southern Ocean, but some precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer.

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Loss of Antarctic sea ice

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop. 

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness by the University of Bremen (left) and concentration by NSIDC (right) on September 13, 2026. The orange line on the image on right shows the median ice edge 1981-2010. 

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration by the University of Bremen on September 25, 2026 (left) and by Climate Reanalyzer on September 26, 2026 (right). 

The Equinox occurred on September 23, 2026, when the Sun was directly above the Equator and both hemispheres received an equal amount of sunlight, as illustrated by the combination image below. 

After the Equinox, the Southern Hemisphere started to receive more sunlight than the Northern Hemisphere. The size of Antarctic sea ice is crucially important, as it determines how much sunlight will be reflected back into space. On September 23, 2026, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.802 million km², while Antarctic sea ice extent was 17.306 million km². Furthermore, the Antarctic sea ice is also located much closer to the Equator, thus further causing it to receive more sunlight and reflect more sunlight back into space when it's there.   

The image below shows that on September 26, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.46 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.54σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average. 

Antarctic sea ice has decreased in extent since September 15, 2026, and extent was 17.175 million km² on September 26, 2026, the second lowest on record after 2023, as illustrated by the image below.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record. Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be horrendous, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Ozone layer

An additional danger is water vapor reaching the stratosphere, with destructive impact on the ozone layer. Monthly total column water vapor was at a record high in August 2026. As temperatures keep rising, this danger becomes more and more manifest. Atmospheric rivers carrying moisture to Antarctica are increasingly common events, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Copernicus found that the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole reached a significant size threshold slightly earlier than average, aligned with 2025. It has also stayed ahead of average, unlike the previous year, as illustrated by the image below.

CAMS chart of the ozone hole area on 12 September 2026. The red line shows the data for 2026 and the dotted line the forecast for the following 5 days. The thicker, darker blue line is the evolution of the ozone hole during 2025, and the lighter blue line represents 2024. The grey colours represent the percentile values and the median between 1979 – 2023.
Data source: CAMS/C3S Credit: CAMS/ECMWF

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse 
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Precipitation, relative humidity, soil moisture and river flow for August 2026  https://climate.copernicus.eu/precipitation-relative-humidity-soil-moisture-and-river-flow-august-2026

• Copernicus: Ozone hole reaches notable threshold early again as area increases above average in 2026
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-ozone-hole-reaches-notable-threshold-early-again-area-increases-above-average-2026
Also discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164773077179679

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. (2026) 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
Also discussed on facebook at: 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164124732849679

• Water Vapor Worries
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/water-vapor-worries.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/double-blue-ocean-event.html

• Antarctic sea ice increasingly in danger
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/08/antarctic-sea-ice-increasingly-in-danger.html

• A Tale of Two Poles
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/a-tale-of-two-poles.html

• Antarctica
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/antarctica.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Arctic Ocean Feedbacks

The world is warming rapidly, and the Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the rest of the world. In December 2016, the temperature anomaly from latitude 83°N to the North Pole was 8 times as high as the global anomaly. Above forecast for February 6, 2017, shows that temperatures over parts of the Arctic Ocean will be as much as 30°C or 54°F higher than they were in 1979-2000. How can it be so much warmer in a place where, at this time of year, little or no sunlight is shining? The Arctic Ocean is warming particularly rapidly due to a multitude of feedbacks, some of which are illustrated on the image below.

As the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the world, the temperature difference between the Arctic and the northern latitudes decreases, which makes the jet stream wavier. Jennifer Francis has written extensively about jet stream changes as a result of rapid warming in the Arctic. In the video below, Peter Sinclair interviews Jennifer Francis on these changes.

The changes to the jet stream make it easier for warm air from the south to enter the Arctic and for cold air to move out of the Arctic deep down into North America and Eurasia. At the same time, this also increases the temperature difference between the continents and the oceans, which is quite significant given the rapid warming of oceans across the globe. The result of the greater temperature difference between oceans and continents is that stronger winds are now flowing over the oceans along the jet stream tracks.

Stronger winds come with more evaporation and rain, which accumulates as freshwater at the surface of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The freshwater acts as a seal, as a lid on the ocean, making that less heat gets transferred from underneath the freshwater lid to the atmosphere. This makes that more heat can travel underneath the sea surface through the North Atlantic and reach the Arctic Ocean.

On January 28, 2017, sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 18.4°C (or 33.1°F) were showing up off the coast of Japan.

The situation is illustrated by above images, showing areas over the North Atlantic and the North Pacific (blue) where the sea surface was colder than it was in 1981-2011. Over these colder areas, winds are stronger due to the changes to the jet stream. On January 28, 2017, temperature anomalies were as high as 18.4°C (or 33.1°F) off the coast of Japan, while temperature anomalies were as high as 10.9°C (or 19.5°F) near Svalbard in the Arctic on January 27, 2017.

The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1971-2000.

The video below shows precipitation over the Arctic, run on January 27, 2017, and valid up to February 4, 2017.

Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar Drift

Changes to wind patterns can also affect sea currents in the Arctic Ocean such as the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift. In the video below, at around 7:00, Paul Beckwith warns that further loss of sea ice will make these sea currents change direction, which in turn will draw more warm seawater from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean.

As more ocean heat enters the Arctic Ocean and as sea ice retreats, more heat and water vapor will rise from the Arctic Ocean into the atmosphere over the Arctic. Increased water vapor will make it harder for heat to escape into space, i.e. more heat will remain trapped in the atmosphere and this will add to global warming.

The changes to the jet stream and the associated changes discussed above all lead to further warming of the Arctic Ocean, next to the warming caused by other feedbacks such as loss of albedo and loss of ice as a heat buffer. Together, sea ice loss and these associated feedbacks could cause global temperatures to rise by 1.6°C by 2026.

There are further feedbacks affecting the Arctic, as described at this page. One of the most dangerous feedbacks is methane escaping from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, it seems inevitable that more and more methane will rise from its seafloor and enter the atmosphere, at first strongly warming up the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean itself - thus causing further methane eruptions - and eventually warming up the atmosphere across the globe.

Above image paints a dire warning. The image shows that methane levels were as high as 2562 ppb on January 28, 2017. The image further shows high methane levels off the coast of Siberia and also where water from Nares Strait enters Baffin Bay.

Feedbacks and further elements of a potential temperature rise by 2026 of more than 10°C above prehistoric levels are further described at the extinction page.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Feedbacks
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• 2016 well above 1.5°C
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/2016-well-above-1.5c.html

• Accelerating Warming of the Arctic Ocean
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/12/accelerating-warming-of-the-arctic-ocean.html