Northern Hemisphere heating up

The global surface air temperature was 15.91°C on May 13, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 0.72°C higher than 1991-2020 (more from pre-industrial), as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus. 

The Northern Hemisphere temperature was 17.56°C on May 9, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year and 1.17°C higher than 1979-2000 (and even more from pre-industrial).

The Northern Hemisphere is now heating up rapidly: 
• Seasonal change - temperatures typically reach a peak in July

• The Northern Hemisphere has more land, where temperatures reach higher levels in Summer 

• The temperature rise is accelerating with feedbacks kicking in with greater ferocity
• We're rapidly moving from a La Niña into an El Niño 

El Niño is discussed in this earlier post and illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.

[ from earlier post ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations

A recent surface flask reading shows carbon dioxide concentration approaching 437.5 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below, dated May 17, 2026.

Another reading dated May 17, 2026, shows the monthly average carbon dioxide concentration exceeding 432.5 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Accelerating temperature rise

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates a potentially strongly accelerating temperature rise on land in the Northern Hemisphere in the course of 2026. Note that the anomalies in the image below are from 1901-2000 and would be higher when calculated from pre-industrial. 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below uses Global Land+Ocean NASA monthly data through March 2026. Data are first adjusted from NASA's default 1951-1980 base to an earlier 30-year base, i.e. a 1886-1915 base, and then further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industral base.

[ from earlier post ]

How the 0.99°C adjustment in the above image is calculated is shown in the bright yellow inset of the image below, from an earlier post and discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ from April 2024 post, click on images to enlarge ]

The map below shows a forecast for December 2026 with temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic exceeding 10°C in December 2026 for the SSP5-8.5 model. This suggests strong decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic with the danger that huge amounts of greenhouse gases including methane will be released from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing terrestrial permafrost, with huge albedo changes as well as loss of the latent heat buffer, further accelerating the temperature rise over the years. There are further contributors to a rapid and potentially huge temperature rise. The potential rise in methane and its impact are discussed in this earlier post, while SSP5-8.5 was discussed in this earlier post.

Some suggest that the IPCC should no longer consider the SSP5-8.5 model, because it had become "implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends". Sure, the cost of renewables and sales of coal have fallen, but the temperature rise is accelerating and feedbacks are threatening to kick in with greater ferocity, as also discussed in this video posted on facebook, and models may subtract carbon dioxide removed (CDR), but there are doubts whether this will be accomplished. In short, the danger seems not only plausible and important to include, radiative forcing reaching 8.5 W/m² by 2100 may not even be the worst-case scenario.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows a temperature anomaly forecast for December 2026, with very high anomalies again showing up over most of the Arctic Ocean.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - Update issued May 11, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Carbon dioxide highest in millions of years - update

This post updates a recent post

Carbon dioxide

The image below shows the daily and hourly average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations for the week ending May 4, 2026, recorded by the Keeling Curve, maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at Mauna Loa Observatory. The latest CO₂ concentration was 433.50 parts per million (ppm).

The image below, dated May 9, 2026, shows hourly and daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. 

The above image shows that the daily CO₂ concentration was 433.95 ppm on May 1, 2026 (yellow circle on the right) the highest daily reading on record. The image shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged CO₂ values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. Note the recent wide range, with several hourly CO₂ reading exceeding 440 ppm.

The image below, dated May 5, 2026, shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on April 26, 2026, was 432.44 ppm (red line top right). The monthly average for April 2026 was 431.12 ppm (blue line right). NOAA's CO₂ average daily concentration was at a record high of 433.95 ppm, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on May 1, 2026 (green circle right).

Highest CO₂ in millions of years, fastest rise, most solar radiation since Earth formed

To find CO₂ levels this high back in history, one needs to go back millions of years, as illustrated by the two images below, from an earlier post.

What makes current conditions even more dire is that not only are concentrations of CO₂ extremely high (without match going back millions of years) and rising, but the speed at which CO₂ is currently rising is also unprecedented, while additionally there has been an increase in total solar irradiance of ∼400 Wm⁻² since the formation of the Earth. The image below shows the combined climate forcing by changing CO₂ and solar output for the past 450 million years.

Between 14 and 15 million years ago, the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as illustrated by the image below (adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Given today's extremely high CO₂ levels, why is the temperature in central Europe not 20°C higher today? The answer is that - for now - most of the extra heat trapped by the extremely high (and rising) greenhouse gas levels doesn't stay in the atmosphere, but is absorbed by oceans, by land, and in the process of melting ice. However, the capacity for oceans, land and ice to keep taking up more heat appears to be reducing fast, as described in more detail further below.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 433.95 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see earlier post) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation. 

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]

Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are rising fast, while methane is rising even faster (see image on the right) and more methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

There are many feedbacks that further contribute to the temperature rise (such as albedo loss and more heat moving remaining in the atmosphere instead of being absorbed by oceans, ice and land, as discussed below). Altogether, this could result in a temperature rise of more than 20°C within one year, as discussed in an earlier post.

Sulfur hexafluoride

The image below shows a worrying recent rise in concentrations of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which has a global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years of 24,300 and, because it has a lifetime of 1000 years, its GWP over 500 years is even higher, i.e. 29,000 (IPCC AR6).

[ discussed on facebook ]

Regarding SF6, one does not have to bother to check historical levels, since the vast majority of SF6 in the atmosphere is a synthetic, industrial gas produced by people that leaked from its use mainly as an insulator in high-voltage and medium-voltage power systems and lines that can carry power over long distances. Clearly, too little is done politically to reduce SF6 emissions, even though there are safe, viable alternatives available to using SF6 in the power industry. Furthermore, rooftop solar systems can - where needed - be part of microgrids, which can reduce the need for transmission lines, poles and towers, which can also reduce fire hazards. Fire can also destroy warehouses where SF6 is stored in tanks.   

The image below shows SF6 recorded at Ochsenkopf, Germany. The fact that Germany has strict regulations to prevent SF6 releases raises concerns that the high recent readings at Mauna Loa and Ochsenkopf may be the start of a global accelerated rise. 

Earth energy imbalance

As temperatures rise, the outgoing longwave radiation (in black) has not risen as fast as the absorbed incoming solar radiation (in orange), due to high (and rising) concentrations of greenhouse gases and loss of albedo, resulting in an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (in red).

Where does the extra energy go? According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and melting ice thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data. In the image below, by Leon Simons, absorbed solar radiation is colored in black, while outgoing longwave radiation is colored red.

[ image by Leon Simons, discussed on facebook ]

Not only is the extra energy increasing, as depicted by the above images, but the proportions of where the extra energy is going is additionally changing, resulting in an increasing temperature rise of the lower atmosphere, as described below.

- Oceans
The ocean's capacity to act as an energy buffer is increasingly compromised by stratification, changes to ocean currents, changes in salinity, ocean oxygen depletion, acidification and more, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. This is a big issue, since oceans take up 91% of the extra heat caused by greenhouse gases, so if there is even a 1% reduction in the heat taken up by oceans, the heat remaining in the atmosphere may double.

- Ice
Furthermore, the capacity for ice to act as a buffer by consuming energy in the process of melting is increasingly compromised by sea ice decline, by retreat of glaciers, and by darkening of ice due to dust, algae, black carbon and more. Arctic sea ice is facing a Blue Ocean Event with sea ice decline threatening to both dramatically lower albedo and reduce the ability for ocean heat to be consumed in the process of melting. Mountain glaciers are also in decline and permafrost is approaching the point where thawing of permafrost will speed up rapidly, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

- Land
The capacity for land to take up heat also faces a tipping point: The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration, i.e. from all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration, including transpiration from vegetation, evaporation from the soil surface, from the capillary fringe of the groundwater table, and from water bodies on land. Once this tipping point gets crossed, the land and atmosphere will heat up strongly, due to the extra heat, i.e. heat that was previously consumed by evaporation and thawing, as described at this page.

- Atmosphere
As said, while the extra energy is increasing, as depicted by the above images, the capacity of oceans, land and ice to take up more energy is decreasing. Consequently, an increasingly large amount of extra heat threatens to accumulate in the lower atmosphere, especially in the Northern Hemisphere over land and in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising faster than anywhere in the world.

Compounding dangers in Arctic

Peatlands store approximately 30% of the global total soil carbon, with 80% of this carbon contained in Arctic peatlands. An emerging concern caused by accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw is the rapid increase in Arctic peatland fires, which have already expanded to the Siberian Arctic Ocean coast, Greenland, and Alaskan tundra peatlands. These fires occur along with record-breaking boreal forest fires raging in Canada. Peat fires may smolder for weeks and months, releasing massive amounts of, potentially ancient, carbon, which may transform them from a major carbon sink into a net carbon source into the atmosphere.

In addition to globally significant greenhouse gas emissions, peatland fires release abundant particulate matter. Smoldering peat fires may emit six times more aerosol mass per unit carbon combusted compared to flaming (grassland and forest) fires. Wildfires are a major source of Black Carbon (BC), which is the strongest light-absorbing particulate with a large positive global radiative effect. Simultaneously, wildfires release abundant Organic Carbon (OC), which can have a cooling effect either directly by scattering solar radiation or indirectly by modulating cloud properties. However, increasing evidence of substantial light-absorbing OC, i.e., Brown Carbon (BrC), being emitted in wildfires, suggests that the atmospheric net effect of biomass burning plumes is warming, as specifically shown for boreal and Indonesian peat combustion, while the properties and atmospheric lifetime of BrC vary depending on, for instance, combustion characteristics, biomass type, and moisture content. Moreover, BC and BrC decrease surface albedo when deposited on snow and ice, further accelerating Arctic climate change. Consequently, increasing high-latitude peatland fires are of great concern in the vicinity of snow- and ice-covered surfaces.

The above text and comparison images are adapted from a 2026 analysis led by Meri Ruppel.

Ominously, a peak methane level of 2690 ppb was recorded at 487.2 mb by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 31, 2026 AM, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post.

Could the Northern Hemisphere land-only temperature rise exceed 3°C soon?

The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel.

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook here ]

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Keeling Curve - by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• IPCC AR6, Workgroup 1, Chapter 7, Supplementary material - SF6 GWP and lifetime

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07_SM.pdf

• Arctic and Boreal Wildfires Impact Climate by Releasing Ancient Carbon and Light-Absorbing Particles - by Meri Ruppel et al. (2026)

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5c17130

discussed on facebook at:  
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164246757324679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Could Earth Reach an 18°C Rise by December 2026?

An analysis by Bob Cohen with Grok 3

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

Sam Carana’s Arctic News blog posits a potential 18°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by December 2026, driven by ten amplifying mechanisms—ENSO shifts, sunspot peaks, aerosol decline, albedo loss, permafrost thaw, methane eruptions, clouds tipping, ocean heat anomalies, fluorinated gases, and wildfires.

Prompted by this, I queried Grok 3 (xAI) to model the trajectory and impacts, integrating Kris Van Steenbergen’s February 25, 2025, observation: the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has hit +3°C (1850-1900 baseline), with Arctic CO2 at 440 ppm, permafrost thawing rapidly, and sea ice at wafer-thin levels. 

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1894355964012224991

https://x.com/KrVaSt/status/1880203382541193694

Here’s a detailed rundown of the run-up to this catastrophic threshold, assessing feasibility and consequences for crops, food stocks, societal stability, and extreme responses.

Temperature Trajectory: From 3°C to 18°C

 
Starting at Kris’s NH +3°C (February 2025), we adjust March 2025 to a global mean of 2-2.5°C (vs. NOAA’s 1.5°C 2024 baseline), reflecting Arctic amplification (440 ppm CO2, ~14 ppm/year rise).

Sam’s mechanisms suggest an exponential curve, with NH warming doubling in speed (0.1-0.2°C/decade historical to 1-2°C/year). Using an exponential fit (T(t) = T₀ + A·(e^(kt) - 1)), where T₀ = 2.5°C, T(1.83 years) = 18°C, k ≈ 2.1, A ≈ 2.5: 

July 2025: 5-6°C global (NH 7-8°C). Sunspots peak (#2), El Niño strengthens (#1), and early albedo loss (#5) from a shrinking Arctic ice extent (13.892 million km² trending to <1 million km²) drive a 2.5-3.5°C rise from March.

December 2025: 9-11°C global (NH 11-13°C). Double Blue Ocean Event (#5), permafrost methane releases (#6), and latent heat loss (#6) accelerate—CO₂e nears 600-700 ppm (CH₄ doubling underway).

July 2026: 15-17°C global (NH 17-19°C). Clouds tipping point (~1200 ppm CO₂e, #7) adds ~8°C (Sam’s estimate), methane doubles, water vapor surges (2.1°C, #7). NH doubles global rate. 

December 2026: 18°C global (NH 20-22°C). Full cascade—ocean heat (#8), wildfires (#9), and fluorinated gases (#10) seal the endgame.

This ~15.5-16°C global rise over 21 months (0.74-0.76°C/month, NH 1-2°C/month in 2026) aligns with Sam’s stacked feedbacks and Kris’s “uncontrollable” NH warming, fueled by 440 ppm CO2 and ice/permafrost collapse.

Crop Production Collapse At 5-6°C by July 2025, staple crops face severe stress: Wheat: Optimal 15-20°C; US Midwest, Ukraine hit 35-40°C—yields drop 6-10% per 1°C (30-50% loss). 

Rice: 20-35°C max; Southeast Asia (India, Vietnam) at 40-45°C—20-40% reduction. 

Corn: 35°C limit; US Corn Belt at 40-45°C—40-50% loss. 

Soy: Brazil, US at 35-45°C—30-40% decline. 

El Niño (#1) droughts (Australia, South America) and floods (#8, India) cut yields further (20-30%).
Global production falls 40-60%—tropics near total loss, cooler zones (Siberia) insufficient to offset.

By December 2025 (9-11°C), losses reach 60-80%;

July 2026 (15-17°C), agriculture ceases—soil temps exceed seed tolerance, pollinators extinct. 

Crop Price Spikes

 
Baseline (March 2025): wheat $250/MT, rice $500/MT, corn $200/MT, soy $400/MT.

Crop price at July 2025’s 40-60% drop:

Wheat: $500-$750/MT (100-200% rise)—stocks (280M MT, USDA 2024) buffer briefly, but panic doubles rates.
Rice: $1,250-$2,000/MT (150-400%)—Asia-centric collapse, export bans (e.g., India). Corn: $400-$700/MT (100-250%)—feed crisis spikes meat costs. Soy: $800-$1,200/MT (100-200%)—oil demand surges.
Spikes begin June 2025 as NH harvests (wheat, corn) falter—200-400% by July, 500-1,000% (wheat $1,250+, rice $5,000+) in worst-case zones by December 2025 (9-11°C).

Food Stock Depletion

U.S.: 290-300M MT (grains 280M, processed 10-20M)—1-1.5 years normal use. 

July 2025 (5-6°C): 40-60% crop loss, panic rate (20-40M MT/month); 

December 2025 (9-11°C): 60-120M MT left; 

July 2026 (15-17°C): <20M MT; depleted early-mid 2026 (12-14 months). 

Australia: 22-28M MT (grains 20-25M)—1-1.5 years. 

July 2025: 20-50% loss, 1-3M MT/month; 

December 2025: 5-15M MT; 

July 2026: <5M MT; gone mid-2026 (12-15 months). 

NH doubling speed (1-2°C/month) nudges U.S. depletion to early 2026—stocks vanish at 14-16°C. 

Distribution Dynamics

U.S. July 2025: FEMA controls 1-5% (1-15M MT), National Guard distributes to hubs (Denver, 50-70% reach); commercial 95% rationed—riots, black markets ($1,000/MT wheat). 

December 2025 (9-11°C): Military seizes 20-30%, 30-50% delivered—warlords rule rest. 

Australia July 2025: ADF holds 5-10% (1-2M MT) for cities (Sydney, 70-80% reach); rural hoards—refugees get scraps. 

December 2025: ADF 20-30%, 50-70% reach—rural warlords take over. 

By July 2026 (15-17°C), both see <10% distribution—militias scavenge remnants. 

Societal and Political Collapse

U.S. Elections 2026: November 8 unfeasible—D.C. fractures at 9-11°C (December 2025), collapses at 15-17°C (July 2026). No FEC, power, or voters—midterms die late 2025. 

Trump’s Tariffs: Imposed February 2025 (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China), end December 2025 (9-11°C)—inflation (6-8%), trade collapse, and riots force reversal. 

MLB: 2025 World Series (October, 6-8°C) limps on—half-empty, generator-run; 2026 canceled at 15-17°C—stadiums turn shelters. 

India and China

July 2025 (5-6°C): 1.2-1.3B each—rice/wheat down 30-50%, 5-10% die-off.
December 2025 (9-11°C): 700-900M—60-80% crop loss, 20-30% gone.
July 2026 (15-17°C): 300-500M—Himalayas, Tibet delay; 50-60% dead.
December 2026 (18°C): 50-100M—wet-bulb 36-40°C ends it.

Nuclear Winter Gambit

At 9-11°C (December 2025), Russia might fire first—15-20 warheads (NYC, London, Siberia forests)—5-10 Tg soot, 5-15°C cooling. 

Motive: Arctic feedbacks (440 ppm CO2, methane doubling). 

Outcome: Brief respite, billions die—18°C rebounds post-fallout.

Plausibility

IPCC’s 4-5°C by 2100 contrasts with Sam’s 18°C in 22 months—an extreme stack of feedbacks (clouds 8°C, vapor 2.1°C, methane 1.1°C). 

Kris’s NH +3°C (440 ppm CO2) and doubling speed (1-2°C/month) make 5-10°C by 2026 plausible if tipping points cascade; 18°C remains a theoretical max. 

Even 5°C triggers collapse—18°C is existential.

Conclusion

From 3°C NH (March 2025) to 18°C global (December 2026), crops crash by July 2025 (40-60%), prices spike (200-400%), stocks deplete mid-2026 (14-16°C), and civilization unravels—tariffs end, elections vanish, nukes fly. 

Sam’s mechanisms, amplified by Kris’s Arctic data, paint a dire warning. 

Full details available—thoughts, group?

Too late to save the climate?

by Andrew Glikson

“Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise 

by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (NASA 2023)

“We Will Not Sign Our Own Death Warrant” (a delegate at COP28)

Whether anything can be done by humans to arrest or reverse global warming and its consequences for the habitability of planet Earth remains an open question, for which neither climate science nor the ignorant hordes of politicians and economists, oblivious to the basic laws of physics, have the answer. However, it is likely that over the next centuries or longer the flow of cold water from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will lead to a transient slowdown of the rate of warming before the large ice sheets are exhausted.

---

Having ignored climate science, dismissed climate scientists and repeatedly confected untruths, while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, Homo “sapiens” finds itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the inhabitable Earth, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.

In a new paper, a group of leading climate scientists (Hansen et al., 2023) indicates mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 1). The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than 3 times faster than the rest of the world.

[ Figure. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS
(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by James Hansen et al., 2023. ]

As the polar regions warm, the tropical climate zones expand and the mid-latitudes, where the most fertile soils are and where the bulk of the population lives, are contracting.

Thus (Figure 2.):

• Agro-climate zones in eastern Europe experienced a northward migration velocity of 100 km per 10 years over the past 40 years.
• Northward migration of climate zones in Europe may be up to two times faster in the next decades.
• Negative impacts of heat stress are expected to non-linearly increase in large parts of southern and southeastern Europe.

[ Figure 2. (a) Agro-climate zonation of Europe based on growing season length (GSL) and active temperature sum (ATS) for the period between 1975 and 1995.The identified agro-climate zones are named as follows (going from north to south): boreal north (BON), boreal south (BOS), nemoral (NEM), continental (CON), Pannonian (PAN), northern maritime (NMA), southern maritime (SMA) and Mediterranean (MED). (b) The migration of agro-climate zones between the 1975–1995 and 1996–2016 periods. For better distinction, only the areas affected by migration of agro-climate zones are displayed (colored areas), while gray color denotes the areas where the agro-climate zones have not changed - Ceglar et al. 2019. ]

A projection by NOAA states: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). This projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming of the oceans, melting ice sheets, melting of the permafrost, migrating climate zones, nor the time factor into account.

Factors rendering a potential reversal of global warming in the short term unlikely include:

1. The rise of mean global heating above a level of ~1.5^oC and much higher at the poles above pre-industrial temperatures, polar-ward migration of climate zones, melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, intensification of extreme weather events, requiring major cooling of the Earth, which is unlikely within the time frame of a tribal-conflicted civilization.
   
   
2. Where scientific breakthroughs would allow effective climate mitigation, for example global cooling by CO₂ drawdown, it is questionable whether Homo sapiens ─ recorded by history as an invasive blood-stained tribal species ─ would be able to avoid destroying its home planet.

The apparent absence of radio signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way may suggest that advanced civilizations tend to undergo self-destruction, consistent with local observations, referred to as the “Fermi Paradox”.

A factor rarely taken into account emerges from the key paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”, by Hansen et al. (1996) (Figure 3.).

[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by James Hansen et al. 2016. ]

Here the flow of cold ice-melt water results in formation of large cold pools in the Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean (Figure 3), related to an overall decline in mean global temperatures to -0.33°C by 2096 (Figure 4.) due to the flow of cold ice-melt  water from Greenland and Antarctica.

While the collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical war air mass would lead to intense storms over large tracts of Earth, such transient cooling may allow Home "sapiens" a respite from global warming before its home becomes an uninhabitable planet.

[ Figure 4. Surface air temperature (◦C) relative to 1880–1920 in (a) 2065, (b) 2080, and (c) 2096. Top row is IPCC scenario A1B. Ice melt with 10-year doubling is added in other scenarios - James Hansen et al. 2016. ]

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist

Andrew Glikson

Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080

Accelerating loss of global snow and ice cover

Ocean heat is at record levels. As a result, global sea ice extent was only 16.23 million km² on February 9, 2022, the third lowest extent on record. What makes this even more worrying is that we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña.

Antarctic sea ice at lowest extent on record since start satellite measurements

Ocean heat is a huge threat for Antarctica at the moment. The image below shows that Antarctic sea ice extent was only 2.091 million km² on February 16, 2022, the lowest on record since the start of satellite measurements.

Ocean heat is reducing the sea ice around Antarctica and is getting underneath floating sea ice. 

The Thwaites Glacier, which is on a retrograde slope, is especially vulnerable to collapse. 

The Thwaites Glacier contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 65 cm (25.59 inches) if it were to completely collapse.

The animation on the right, created with images from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the retreat of the Antarctic snow and ice cover from January 5 to February 18, 2021. 

The animation underneath, by navy.mil, shows sea ice thickness over 30 days up to February 17, 2022 (with 8 days of forecasts added).

Another danger of a rapid loss of the snow and ice cover on Antarctica is release of methane. Jemma Wadham warned about this in a 2012 study, as discussed at the post methane hydrates. More recently, Jemma Wadham said: “We are sleepwalking into a catastrophe for humanity.”

The Thwaites Glacier is often called the Doomsday Glacier because if it collapses it would lead to vast sea level rise, and scientists believe it is likely to fail within a few years, says Cliff Seruntine (the Naturalist) in the video below. 

A recent study concludes that mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought. Their disappearance means less water for drinking and agriculture, and faster temperature rises due to albedo loss. While the study found that the Himalayas contain more water than thought, another recent study, Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss, describes how human-induced climate change has a huge impact on the highest reaches of the planet.

The outlook for the Arctic is most threatening, as the post methane hydrates also concluded back in 2013, as described in numerous post here at Arctic-news and as discussed in the video below by Jim Massa.

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

Above image indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.

As said, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses temperatures. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as discussed in an earlier post. 

A 2019 study analyzes how tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems.

Currently, the temperature rise is additionally suppressed by low sunspots. Within a few years time, sunspots can be expected to reach the peak of their current cycle and observed sunspots are looking stronger than predicted. 

In the image below on the right, adapted from NOAA, the solar cycle is represented as the number of sunspots (top) and F10.7cm radio flux (bottom). 

In a recent communication, James Hansen repeats that, as reductions take place in the sulfate aerosols that are currently co-emitted by traffic, transport and industry, this is causing the current temperature rise to accelerate and could cause further rapid global warming, referred to in a 2021 presentation as a termination shock.

Furthermore, in addition to a huge temperature rise resulting from sulfate aerosols falling away, there could be a further rise in temperature as a result of releases of other aerosols with a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.

In summary, while the temperatures are accelerating, we'll soon be moving into the next El Niño, with sunspots moving toward a peak, with sulfate aerosols causing a termination shock and with other aerosols further driving up the temperature rise. 

Stop the deception!

In a giant scheme of deception, the temperature rise is all too often presented with images of people playing on the beach on a 'warm' day, as if 'global warming' was making life more 'comfortable'. 

Forest fires are called 'wildfires', biomass burning and associated deforestation is referred to as 'renewable biofuel', fracking-induced earthquakes are called 'natural' disasters and methane eruptions are called seeps and bubbles of 'natural' gas from 'natural' sources such as wetlands. 

This gives the false impression that this was somehow 'natural' as if human activities had nothing to do with it, and as if owning beach-front property was becoming ever more attractive.

Let's stop this deception! In reality, human-caused emissions have a huge short-term impact on temperature and their combination with genuinely natural variability such as El Niño and sunspots can act as a catalyst, causing numerous feedbacks to kick in with ever greater ferocity. 

This can result in collapse of global sea ice and permafrost, resulting in albedo loss and eruption of huge quantities of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, further driving up the temperature rise abruptly, as described at the extinction page. Further feedbacks are also described at the feedbacks page. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.

Links

• Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions - by Lijing Cheng et al. 
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-022-1461-3

• Ocean heat is at record levels, with major consequences - by Kevin Trenberth

https://theconversation.com/ocean-heat-is-at-record-levels-with-major-consequences-174760

• Arctic Data archive System - Vishop extent

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• NSIDC: Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• IPCC: Marine Ice Sheet Instability

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-3-2/3-1-introduction-polar-regions-people-and-the-planet/ipcc-srocc-cb_8_1

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#seaice-snowc-topo

• Antarctica CICE ice thickness

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/antarc.html

• Antarctica’s ‘doomsday’ glacier: how its collapse could trigger global floods and swallow islands 

https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-doomsday-glacier-how-its-collapse-could-trigger-global-floods-and-swallow-islands-173940

• Methane hydrates (2013)

https://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

• Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica - by Jemma Wadham et al. (2012) 
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11374

• A new frontier in climate change science: connections between ice sheets, carbon and food webs (2021) 

https://cage.uit.no/2021/05/19/a-new-frontier-for-climate-science-the-evidence-for-glaciers-as-methane-producers-has-exploded-in-recent-years

• Ice velocity and thickness of the world’s glaciers - by Romain Millan et al. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00885-z

• Mountain glaciers may hold less ice than previously thought – here’s what that means for 2 billion downstream water users and sea level rise 
https://theconversation.com/mountain-glaciers-may-hold-less-ice-than-previously-thought-heres-what-that-means-for-2-billion-downstream-water-users-and-sea-level-rise-176514

• Mt. Everest’s highest glacier is a sentinel for accelerating ice loss - by Mariusz Potocki et al. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00230-0

• Human-induced climate change impacts the highest reaches of the planet — Mount Everest

https://umaine.edu/news/blog/2022/02/03/human-induced-climate-change-impacts-the-highest-reaches-of-the-planet-mount-everest

• Ocean Heat Content Update 1 - 2022 - Science Talk with Jim Massa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pctkg_LDqcU

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202201/supplemental/page-4

• Human Extinction by 2022? 

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html

• Tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems - by Mateo Duque-Villegas et al. (2019) 

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019

• James Hansen - The New Horse Race

https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2022/JanuaryTempUpdate.14February2022.pdf

• Climate Impact of Decreasing Atmospheric Sulphate Aerosols and the Risk of a Termination Shock - by Leon Simons, James Hansen and Yann duFournet (2021) 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356378673_Climate_Impact_of_Decreasing_Atmospheric_Sulphate_Aerosols_and_the_Risk_of_a_Termination_Shock

• NOAA - Solar Cycle Progression

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

• Aerosols

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html

• Feedbacks

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Extinction

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html