Global warming to blame for low temperatures in North America

A temperature of -40°C (-39.9°F) was recorded at the circle on February 19, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the above image.

What made this possible? 

Temperature anomalies were very high in January 2025 in the Arctic, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Arctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year. Temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean have been very high, resulting in very low sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image underneath on the right. 

Arctic amplification of global warming at times causes the Jet Stream to become very wavy, enabling cold air from the Arctic to spread over deep over continents (i.e. North America, Asia and Europe).

At the same time, a more wavy Jet Stream enables more heat to abruptly move north from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

More extreme weather

Global warming is causing more extreme weather events all around the world, and as temperatures keep rising, these events look set to become more extreme, i.e. hitting larger areas for longer, with higher frequency and greater intensity. 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below shows a deformed Jet Stream (lines show wind pattern) forecast for February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC, with high relative humidity at 250 hPa (left) and a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 55.2 mm forecast at the green circle (right).

The image below shows temperature anomalies (°F) forecast for February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC over North America.

The image below shows a forecast of the actual temperature (°F) on February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC over North America.

The image below shows a temperature of -1.2° C (29.9°F) that is forecast to hit New Orleans (circle) on February 20,2025 13:00 UTC. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - Understanding the Arctic polar vortex
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162311831389679

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Forecast: America to be hit by temperatures as low as minus 40 degrees

The image on the right shows that large parts of North America, the Arctic Ocean and Siberia are experiencing low temperatures.

What many people may not realize is that temperatures in the Arctic are actually a lot higher than they used to be around this time of year.

Temperatures in the Arctic have risen due to feedbacks as described in the post The Biggest Story of 2013.

As a result, temperature anomalies above 20 degrees Celsius now feature in the Arctic. As the image on the right illustrates, the once-common temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes has been shattered, and this is weakening the Jet Stream and the Polar Vortex, in turn making it easier for cold air to flow down to lower latitudes and for warmer air to enter the Arctic, as described in posts at this blog for years, e.g. this post.

This is illustrated by the image below, showing that the Arctic is hit by an overall temperature anomaly of 6.55 degrees Celsius, while some areas in the Arctic feature anomalies above 20 degrees Celsius.

Forecasts show that on February 2nd, 2014, 1200 UTC, the Arctic will be hit by a temperature anomaly of 7.85 degrees Celsius, while on February 6th, 2014, 1200 UTC, the U.S. will be hit by temperatures as low as -40 degrees, as illustrated by the image below.

The video below shows temperature forecasts from February 1to February 8, 2014.

The video below shows temperatire anomalies from February 2 to February 9, 2014.

Meanwhile, the Gulf Stream keeps pushing warm water into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

Click on image to enlarge - view updated animation at earth.nullschool.net 

The image below shows how high sea surface temperature anomalies stretch out from the point where the Gulf Stream travels at high speeds, off the coast of North America, all the way into the Arctic Ocean.

This has already resulted in methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that started several months ago and are continuing to date - ominous signs of more to come. The image below, which compares peak methane levels at two altitudes between January 2013 and January 2014, suggests that January 2014 peak levels have increased strongly, compared to January 2013 peak levels. Furthermore, that the rise in average peak readings has been most dramatic at the higher altitude.

This suggests that huge quantities of methane have indeed been released from hydrates under the Arctic ocean, and that much of the methane is rising and building up at higher altitudes. The increasing appearance of noctilucent clouds further confirms indications that methane concentrations are rising at higher altitudes.

Of course, the above analysis uses a limited dataset, but if verified by further analysis, it would confirm a dramatic rise in the presence of methane in the atmosphere due to releases from hydrates. Moreover, it would confirm the immensity of threat that releases from the Arctic Ocean will escalate and trigger runaway warming, as high methane concentrations over the Arctic are contributing to the anomalously high temperatures there. The risk that this will eventuate is unacceptable, which calls for comprehensive and effective action such as discussed at the ClimatePlan blog.