Showing posts with label North Pole. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Pole. Show all posts

Friday, September 4, 2026

Water near North Pole

Water is visible near the North Pole, as illustrated by the satellite image below, dated September 4, 2026.


With much water being visible near the North Pole, Arctic sea ice volume is currently not the lowest for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

Why isn't Arctic sea ice volume currently at a record low? There still is a lot of relatively thick sea ice present North of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 7, 2026. 


Rising temperatures and distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events to become more extreme. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). As illustrated by the combination image below, this can cause more snow to fall over the Arctic Ocean, which can thicken the sea ice or contribute to more freshwater at the surface. 

[ Forecasts for September 5, 2026. Click on images to enlarge ]
Stronger heatwaves and storms over land can also cause increasingly larger amounts of freshwater to get added to the surface of the Arctic Ocean in the form of water from rivers and from runoff from land, as illustrated by the image below. Less salty water can contribute to a temporary slowing down of Arctic sea ice melting, but given the speed at which the ocean heat keeps rising, such a slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and huge melting of sea ice threatens to return with a vengeance, i.e. abruptly, as sea surface temperatures keep rising in line with the 2026 El Niño. 

Sea surface temperatures were at a record high in August 2026, as illustrated by the above image. 


Temperatures of the sea surface are very high, as much as 13°C or 23.3°F higher than 1981-2011 on September 4, 2026, in the Gulf of Ob (green circle on the above image). The image also shows that the cold area that was previously visible south of Greenland got overwhelmed by the huge rise in ocean heat, as the 2026/2027 El Niño keeps gaining in strength and as Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons. 


The absorbed incoming solar radiation (the black line in the above image, but orange in the image below) is increasing rapidly, due to albedo loss, while outgoing longwave radiation (the red line in the above image, but black in the image below) is decreasing proportionally, due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Further gases, aerosols and feedbacks can make things worse. The result is an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth, referred to as Earth's Energy Imbalance. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (red in the image below) and shows where the extra energy is going (in percentages).


According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.

More ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean subsequently threatens to cause abrupt destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.

Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006)
Warm water can cause melting of the ice that is held in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., featured in an earlier post. Hydrates can be present at the end of conduits leading to Pingos that were formed in the sediment where methane did escape from hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the ice in the Pingos and conduits, destabilizing hydrates and resulting in huge abrupt releases of methane from the hydrates, as well as from methane held in the form of free gas underneath such hydrates.

The huge amount of ocean heat present in the Pacific Ocean at the Equator is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, with subsurface temperature anomalies of +10.0°C at 100 m depth. 


In the Atlantic Ocean, slowing down of AMOC can cause less warm water to flow at the sea surface of the North Atlantic into the Arctic ocean. However, the rising ocean heat is not disappearing, but more heat is instead accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean. The danger is that, as more heat rises to the surface, a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of the accumulated ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, a freshwater lid is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, facilitating warm, salty water to be carried underneath this freshwater lid into the Arctic Ocean.


The above combination image shows the situation on September 3, 2026, with Arctic sea ice concentration in the panel on the left, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the panel on the right, with a 0.6°C higher temperature than 1981-2011 highlighted at the green circle near the North Pole. 


The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 7, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and on September 6, 2026, by NSIDC (right), with the orange line indicating the median ice edge 1981-2010. 


The sea surface temperature anomaly (60°S-60°N) was +0.69°C compared to 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from Copernicus. The map (inset, top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026.


The August 2026 temperature anomaly above 1951-1980 was close to the peak reached in September 2023, as illustrated by the above image. 

The sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N) was 21.23°C or 70.21°F on September 8, 2026, the highest temperature on record, and an anomaly of 1.01°C versus 1982-2010, as illustrated by the image below.


There is much scope for the temperature to rise further, since El Niño is expected to reach its peak in December 2026. The image below shows global monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-1910 (not pre-industrial) through August 2026 with a polynomial trend added to warn about the potential that a 3°C rise may cause human extinction.


According to Copernicus, the August 2026 average surface air temperature was 16.96°C, the highest monthly surface air temperature on record and an anomaly of 1.65°C above 1850-1900. 


The 2026 El Niño

The image below shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.


The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below shows the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños. 


The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.


Teleconnections: High temperatures in Tropics contributing to Antarctic sea ice decline

The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 4, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.27°C or 79.29°F, an anomaly of 1.33°C or 2.39°F versus 1979-2000. The globe (inset bottom right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 4, 2026 with the Tropics highlighted.


Sea surface temperatures are also high and this also contributes to Antarctic sea ice decline. Additionally, there is another mechanism contributing to the decline of Antarctic sea ice. At this time of year, the temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and over East Antarctica, so temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole can be very large. 

Large temperature differences can cause strong wind patterns driving warm, moist air in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica, on the way taking up more moisture evaporating from the Southern Ocean. This can cause snow to fall over parts of Antarctica, thickening the snow and ice cover on Antarctica, while increasing the salt content of the Southern Ocean surface. Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows the August 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.


The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 5, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right). Low concentration of the sea ice and of the snow and ice cover on land lowers albedo, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed by Antarctica and by the sea ice around Antarctica. 


On September 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.27 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.39σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.


Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become even stronger. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February, but this time most sea ice may be gone earlier, as the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record, which could devastate the sea ice over the coming months. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives.

Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science.

Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview 
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026



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Thursday, December 22, 2022

Wild Winter Weather

[ posted earlier at facebook ]
The image on the right shows a forecast of very low temperatures over North America with a temperature of -40 °C / °F highlighted (green circle at center) for December 23, 2022 14:00 UTC. 

As the image shows, temperatures over large parts of North America are forecast to be even lower than the temperature at the North Pole.  

The combination image below illustrates this further, showing temperatures as low as -50.3°C or -58.6°F in Alaska on December 22, 2022 at 17:00 UTC, while at the same time the temperature at the North Pole was -13.6°C or 7.4°F. 


The Jet Stream

The image below shows the Jet Stream (250 hPa) on December 13, 2022, stretched out vertically and reaching the North Pole as well as the South Pole, while sea surface temperature anomalies are as high as 11°C or 19.7°F from 1981-2011 at the green circle. 

The Jet Stream used to circumnavigate the globe within a narrow band from West to East (due to the Coriolis Force), and it used to travel at relatively high speed, fuelled by the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.

[ posted earlier at facebook ]

The Jet Stream used to circumnavigate the globe within a narrow band from West to East (due to the Coriolis Force), and it used to travel at relatively high speed, fuelled by the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. 

As the above image shows, the Pacific Ocean is currently cooler at the tropics and warmer further to the north (compared to 1981-2011), which narrows this temperature difference and in turn makes the Jet Stream wavier. Accordingly, the Jet Stream is going up high into the Arctic before descending deep down over North America. 


[ click omn images to enlarge ]
The above image shows Rossby waves, from NOAA. When you see a wave traveling along the surface of water, there are peaks and troughs in the water height. The same happens in the atmosphere with a traveling Rossby wave – as the Rossby wave travels through the atmosphere, the peaks and troughs of the wave produce regions of high and low air pressure.

The image on the right shows air pressure at sea level on December 22, 2022. High sea surface temperatures make air rise, lowering air pressure at the surface to levels as low as 973 hPa over the Pacific. Conversely, a more wavy Jet Stream enables cooler air to flow from the Arctic to North America, raising air pressure at the surface to levels as high as 1056 hPa.

On December 22, 2022, the Jet Stream reached very high speeds over the Pacific, fuelled by high sea surface temperature anomalies. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over the North Pacific at speeds as high as 437 km/h or 271 mph (with a Wind Power Density of 349.2 kW/m², at the green circle). 

The Jet Stream then collides with higher air pressure and moves up into the Arctic, and subsequently descends deep down over North America, carrying along cold air from the Arctic. Deformation of the Jet Stream also results in the formation of circular wind patterns that further accelerate the speed of the Jet Stream. 

The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over North America at speeds as high as 366 km/h or 227 mph (green circle). The image also shows high waves in the North Pacific. 

La Niña / El Niño

The low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean are in line with the current La Niña. 

The fact that such extreme weather events occur while we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña is worrying. The next El Niño could push up temperatures further, which would hit the Arctic most strongly. This would further narrow the difference between temperatures at the Equator and the North Pole, thus making the Jet Stream more wavy, which also enables warm air to move into the Arctic, further accelerating feedbacks in the Arctic.

The image below, from NOAA, indicates that the next El Niño is likely to emerge soon. More about that in the next post. 



Conclusion

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan. 


Links

• nullschool

• Jet Stream

• Coriolis Force

• NOAA - What are teleconnections? Connecting Earth's climate patterns via global information superhighways

• Wind Power Density

• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• NOAA - Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)





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Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Above Zero Celsius at North Pole November 2020

Above image shows that, in October 2020, the Arctic Ocean was very hot. The Copernicus image below shows temperatures averaged over the twelve-month period from November 2019 to October 2020.

Keep in mind that, in the Copernicus image, anomalies are compared to the 1981-2010 average.

Note that the shape of the recent twelve-month period is similar to the 2016 peak, when there was a strong El Niño, while in October 2020 the temperature was suppressed due to La Niña and due to low sunspots.

The image below shows how a hot Arctic Ocean distorts the Jet Stream and hot air moves all the way up to the North Pole. 

Above image shows the Northern Hemisphere at November 12, 2020, with a temperature forecast of 2.0°C or 35.5°F at the North Pole at 1000 hPa at 15:00Z. On the right, jet stream crosses the Arctic Ocean (at 250 hPa). At surface level, a temperature was forecast to be 0.6°C or 33.2°F. 


As it turned out, the highest temperature at the North Pole was 1.1°C or 34.1°F on November 12, 2020, at 1000 hPa at 18:00Z, as above image shows. At 15:00Z that day, a temperature of 1.9°C or 35.3°F was recorded at 1000 hPa just south of the North Pole, at 89.50° N, 1.50° E.

The image below shows temperature anomalies for November 12, 2020, with forecasts approaching 30°C. 


[ Click on images to enlarge ]
These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are caused by transfer of huge amounts of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, indicating severe overheating of the Arctic Ocean as a result of the ongoing movement of ocean heat at the surface of the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean along the Gulf Stream. 

As the image on the right shows, temperature anomalies above 20°C were recorded over a large part of the Arctic Ocean on November 16, 2020. 

As illustrated by the image below, temperature anomalies are forecast to remain high over the Arctic Ocean, with the forecast for November 26, 2020, showing anomalies approaching 30°C. 


The resulting distortion of the Jet Stream can at times speed up winds that move hot air from the North Atlantic Ocean toward to Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image at the top. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows that the Jet Stream was as fast as 411 km/h or 255 mph south of Greenland (at the green circle), before crossing the Arctic Ocean on November 4, 2020. 

The image below shows how, on November 20, 2020 15:00 UTC, a distorted Jet Stream reaches a speed of 327 km/h or 203 mph (at circle, globe left). At 850 hPa, wind reaches speeds as high as 161 km/h or 100 mph (circle, globe right). 

The danger is that such strong wind will speed up ocean currents in the North Atlantic that carry huge amounts of heat toward the Arctic Ocean. 


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies compared to 1981-2011 on the Northern Hemisphere on October 23, 2020, when anomalies off the coast of North America were as high as 10.8°C or 19.5°F (left), and on December 3, 2020, when anomalies off the coast of North America were as high as 12.7°C or 22.8°F (right). 


According to a recent news report, an atmospheric river smashed into Juneau, Alaska, dropping 5.08 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 3 a.m. Wednesday December 2, 2020.

This is not an isolated event, but a symptom of the unfolding catastrophe referred to as global warming, which threatens to remove all life from Earth.

Sea surface temperatures around North America are very high. The above image shows that sea surface temperatures were as much as 12.7°C or 22.8°F higher than 1981-2011 off the east coast of North America on December 3, 2020 (green circle). On the image below, the globe on the left shows that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) were as high as 4.1°C or 7.3°F off the west coast of North America on December 4, 2020 (at the green circle).

These high sea surface temperatures speed up de Jet Stream over oceans. At this time of year, temperatures over continents are low, so there is greater ocean/land temperature difference, which further speeds up the Jet Stream where it travels over oceans toward continents. The center globe shows wind as fast as 381 km/h or 237 mph at the time (at circle). 

At the same time, the narrowing temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole is slowing down the Jet Stream. This is making the Jet Stream more wavy at higher latitudes, even resulting in circular wind patterns, and this can make a lot of cold air leave the Arctic and move over continents, thus further widening the ocean/land temperature difference. Given that more than 90% of global warming goes into oceans, this is an important self-reinforcing feedback of global warming. 

Stronger wind results in stronger evaporation, which cools down the sea surface somewhat, as the blue areas over the Pacific Ocean indicate. Due to the strong wind, much of the moisture falls down farther on the path of the wind. The globe on the right shows 3-hour precipitation accumulation as high as 31.3 mm or 1.23 in off the west coast of North America (green circle). 


The image below shows an earlier analysis, describing the situation in September 6, 2020, when high sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere and a narrow difference between the Equator and the North Pole distorted the Jet Stream, making it cross the Arctic Ocean, form circular wind patterns and reach speeds as fast as 262 km/h or 163 mph (250 hPa, green circle) over the North Atlantic. The globe on the right shows that the Gulf Stream off the North American coast reached speeds of 8 km/h or 5 mph (at green circle). 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

More ocean heat can move into the Arctic Ocean for a number of reasons, including: 
  • At times, the Jet Stream becomes very strong and elongated over the North Atlantic, speeding up the flow of ocean heat along the path of Gulf Stream all the way to the Arctic Ocean;
  • Overall, winds are getting stronger, speeding up ocean currents running just below the sea surface;
  • Stratification of the North Atlantic results in less heat mixing down to lower parts of the ocean; and 
  • Increased evaporation and increased subsequent rainfall farther down the path of the Gulf Stream forms a colder freshwater lid stretched out at the sea surface from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean, sealing off transfer of heat from ocean to atmosphere and consequently moving more heat just underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean.

    [ from earlier post ]
As the image below shows, sea surface temperatures as high as 16.6°C or 61.9°F were recorded north of Svalbard on November 9, 2020. 


As the image below shows, the N2O satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2762 ppb on the morning of November 16, 2020.


As the image below shows, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2725 ppb on the afternoon of November 18, 2020.


The video below shows a methane plume or bubble cloud spotted by a team of 69 scientists from ten countries documenting bubble clouds rising from a depth of around 300 metres (985ft) along a 150km (93 mile) undersea slope in the Laptev Sea.


The danger is that even more hot and salty water will reach the shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in huge eruptions of methane that, on its own, could almost instantly cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C.

Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - global maps

• Copernicus - surface air temperature for October 2020

• Climate Reanalyzer

• nullschool earth wind map

• Atmospheric River Smashes Alaskan Capital’s 24-Hour Rain Record

• Bubbling methane craters and super seeps - is this the worrying new face of the undersea Arctic? - by Valeria Sukhova, Olga Gertcyk - Siberian Post

• Why stronger winds over the North Atlantic are so dangerous

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record
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