Carbon dioxide highest in millions of years

Greenhouse gas concentrations

The highest daily average carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration recorded by the Keeling Curve, maintained by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at Mauna Loa Observatory, was 432.81 parts per million (ppm), recorded on April 1, 2026. The image below shows CO₂ over thousands of years. 

The image below shows that the highest daily average CO₂ concentration recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 432.69 ppm, recorded on March 31, 2026 (yellow circle on the right). The image also shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged CO₂ values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. The inset on the right shows recent daily averages.

The image below shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on March 22, 2026, was 430.93 ppm (red line top right). NOAA's CO₂ average daily concentrations were at a record high of 432.69 ppm, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 31, 2026.

To find CO₂ levels this high back in history, one needs to go back millions of years, as illustrated by the two images below, from an earlier post.


What makes current conditions even more dire is that not only are concentrations of CO₂ extremely high (without match going back millions of years) and rising, but the speed at which CO₂ is currently rising is also unprecedented, while additionally there has been an increase in total solar irradiance of ∼400 Wm⁻² since the formation of the Earth. The image below shows the combined climate forcing by changing CO₂ and solar output for the past 450 million years.

Between 14 and 15 million years ago, the temperature in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as illustrated by the image below (adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

Given today's extremely high CO₂ levels, why is the temperature in central Europe not 20°C higher today? The answer is that - for now - most of the extra heat trapped by the extremely high (and rising) greenhouse gas levels doesn't stay in the atmosphere, but is absorbed by oceans, by land, and in the process of melting ice. However, the capacity for oceans, land and ice to keep taking up more heat appears to be reducing fast, as described in more detail further below. 

Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 432.81 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see earlier post) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation. There are many feedbacks and further contributors to acceleration of the temperature rise that could add up to a rise of more than 20°C by the end of 2026, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Earth energy imbalance

Outgoing longwave radiation is reducing due to rising greenhouse gases, resulting in an increasingly larger amount of extra energy. The image below depicts Earth energy imbalance.  

According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.  

[ image by Leon Simons ]

Not only is the extra energy increasing, as depicted by the above image, but the proportions of where the extra energy is going is additionally changing. 

The ocean's capacity to act as an energy buffer is increasingly compromised by stratification, changes to ocean currents, changes in salinity, ocean oxygen depletion, acidification and more, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. This is a big issue, since oceans take up 91% of the extra heat caused by greenhouse gases, so if there is even a 1% reduction in the heat taken up by oceans, the heat remaining in the atmosphere may double.  

Furthermore, the capacity for ice to act as a buffer by consuming energy in the process of melting is increasingly compromised by sea ice decline, by retreat of glaciers, and by darkening of ice due to dust, algae, black carbon and more. Arctic sea ice is facing a Blue Ocean Event with sea ice decline threatening to both dramatically lower albedo and reduce the ability for ocean heat to be consumed in the process of melting.  Mountain glaciers are also in decline and permafrost is approaching the point where thawing of permafrost will speed up rapidly, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

The capacity for land to take up heat also faces a tipping point: The Land Evaporation Tipping Point can get crossed locally when water is no longer available locally for further evapotranspiration, i.e. from all processes by which water moves from the land surface to the atmosphere via evaporation and transpiration, including transpiration from vegetation, evaporation from the soil surface, from the capillary fringe of the groundwater table, and from water bodies on land. Once this tipping point gets crossed, the land and atmosphere will heat up strongly, due to the extra heat, i.e. heat that was previously consumed by evaporation and thawing, as described at this page.

So, while the extra energy is increasing, as depicted by the above image, the capacity of oceans, land and ice to take up energy is decreasing and an increasingly large amount of extra heat therefore threatens to accumulate in the atmosphere, especially in the Northern Hemisphere over land and in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising faster than anywhere in the world.

Methane

Ominously, a peak methane level of 2690 ppb was recorded at 487.2 mb by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 31, 2026 AM, as illustrated by the image below. 

Could the Northern Hemisphere land-only temperature rise exceed 3°C soon?

The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel. 

[ image from earlier post, discussed on facebook here ]

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on April 5, 2026.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Keeling Curve - by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego 
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• NOAA - Office of satellite and product operations - HEAP NUCAPS
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/nucaps/new/nucaps_products.html

• Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - by Julia Marks-Peterson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10032-yand

• Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years - by Sarah Shackleton et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10116-3
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164017885199679

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• The threat of seafloor methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-threat-of-seafloor-methane-eruptions.html

• The 2026 El Nino - update March 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/03/the-2026-el-nino-update-march-2026.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Endangerment Finding in danger?

In the 2009 Endangerment Finding, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirmed that the current and projected concentrations of six key well-mixed greenhouse gases in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.

Recently, President-elect Trump picked Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA and a Republican-controlled Senate subsequently confirmed Zeldin's appointment. More recently, in an EPA news release, Zeldin said that President Trump’s Executive Order gave the EPA Administrator a deadline to submit recommendations on the legality and continuing applicability of the 2009 Endangerment Finding. Having submitted these recommendations, the EPA can now announce its intent to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding.

Patrick Parenteau, Professor of Law Emeritus, Vermont Law & Graduate School, comments that for Zeldin to revoke the Endangerment Finding, procedures must be followed and that could take months, while lawsuits will immediately challenge the move. Even if Zeldin is able to revoke the finding, that does not automatically repeal all the rules that rely on it. Each of those rules must go through separate rulemaking processes that will also take months. To the extent that Zeldin is counting on the conservative Supreme Court to back him up, he may be disappointed. In 2024, the court overturned the Chevron doctrine, which required courts to defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretations when laws were ambiguous. That means Zeldin’s reinterpretation of the statute is not entitled to deference. Nor can he count on the court overturning its Massachusetts v. EPA ruling to free him to disregard science for policy reasons.

Dictatorship versus democracy

Nonetheless, it is worrying if a President, backed by the Senate and through appointment of judges and heads of agencies such as the EPA, is able to effectively act like a dictator. It is even more worrying to see this happen in a country like the U.S., which after all has long taken great pride in having replaced the rule of a monarch by "We, the people" and having put in place many safeguards to avoid arbitrary rule, safeguards such as separation of powers, delegation of decision-making to lower governments and inclusion of clauses in the Constitution to protect fundamental rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, next to the right to vote and equal right to justice.

The War for Independence from the British Monarchy ended in 1783 by the Treaty of Paris, in which 'His Brittanic Majesty' acknowledges the United States to be free sovereign and Independent States. This was followed by the United States Constitution, which in its first three words – 'We The People' – affirms that the government of the United States exists to serve its citizens, while the Constitution also separates the government into three branches to prevent any one branch from becoming too powerful.

The need for policies to comply with best available science

The current situation should act as a wake up call. This is not merely a debate about interpretation of law or following a political ideology. This touches everyone and everybody should get involved in efforts to do the right thing. Dictatorship in itself is bad enough, but it's even worse when it serves climate change denial. The danger of climate change is real and this reality can and must compel any government, whatever its ideological background, to look for and adopt policies that are in line with best available science. This constitutes a necessity that, where there appears to be a conflict, must overrule even what the Supreme Court, the President or Congress may decree—something so obvious that people at the time didn't see a need for it to be enshrined in the Constitution. People did clearly recognize the importance of putting in place safeguards against arbitrary rule, but clearly more should be done now.

Principles for all to follow

In many Commonwealth jurisdictions, the provision for laws to be for the peace, order and good government is highlighted in their constitution, defining the principles under which legislation must be enacted by the respective parliament. As an example, the Australian Constitution vests the legislative power of the Commonwealth of Australia in its Federal Parliament, stating that Parliament has the power, subject to this Constitution, to make laws with respect to matters such as taxation, bounties, trade and commerce, while highlighting that such laws must be for the peace, order and good government of the Commonwealth. Surely, "good government" comes with the imperative for all three branches of government (legislative, executive and judicial) to accept the dangers of climate change and act accordingly.

Europe has long embraced the principle of subsidiarity (preference for decision-making to occur at the lowest level of authority capable of addressing the issue, thus promoting local autonomy and participation). Additionally, some nations have ensured that the duty for government to support the environment is enshrined in their constitution, e.g. in the Netherlands, article 21 of the Constitution imposes the duty on government to keep the country habitable and to protect and improve the environment.

For the sake of democracy and the urgent need to act on climate change, good principles must be adopted and followed. Scientists should follow principles when doing research. Journalists should follow principles when writing reports. Politicians should implement forms of democracy that support decision-making at local level. Local areas can best develop sets of local feebates and institute Local People's Courts in which randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts to ensure that policies are indeed in line with best available science. Where needed, progress with climate action should be supported by a Climate Emergency Declaration.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Carbon dioxide keeps rising in June 2024

The above image shows a trend (magenta), based on NOAA August 2008 through June 2024 data (black) and added on a canvas that is 31.42-year wide. If this trend continues, the clouds tipping point could get crossed in early 2036 due to the rise in carbon dioxide (CO₂) alone.

[ from earlier post ]

Rising CO₂ emissions could originate from many sources, the more so as more sinks turn into sources. 

[ from earlier post ]

Despite the many warnings and despite pledges by politicians to act decisively, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is growing rapidly. Until now, the annual peak was typically reached in May, but this year the June average was (slightly) higher than the May average, ominously pointing at an even higher growth than the record growth in 2023. 

Over the past twelve months, CO₂ concentrations have at times been recorded of well over 430 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below.

The clouds tipping point is at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent), so it could be crossed even earlier than in 2036 when also taking into account more methane, nitrous oxide, etc.

As illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post, a polynomial trend added to NOAA globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data from April 2018 to November 2022 points at 1200 ppm CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) getting crossed in 2027 due to a rise in methane alone.

As discussed in an earlier post, peak daily average methane is approaching 2000 parts per billion (ppb) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. A methane concentration of 2000 ppb corresponds - at a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 200 - with 400 ppm CO₂e. Together with a daily peak CO₂ concentration of 430 ppm, this adds up to a joint CO₂e of 830 ppm, i.e. only 370 ppm away from the clouds tipping point.

This 370 ppm CO₂e could be added almost instantly by a burst of seafloor methane less than the size of the methane that is currently in the atmosphere (about 5 Gt). There is plenty of potential for such an abrupt release, given the rising ocean heat and the vast amounts of carbon and methane contained in vulnerable sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one and at the threat page.

[ image from the Extinction page ]

There are many further developments such as tipping points and feedbacks that should be taken into account. The above image, from an earlier post, illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can accelerate the heating up of the atmosphere.

Several feedbacks can also constitute tipping points. Decline of Arctic sea ice comes with loss of albedo and loss of the Latent Heat Buffer, and the joint loss can abruptly and dramatically increase temperatures in the Arctic Ocean.

Further increase of heat in the Arctic Ocean can in turn cause the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point to get crossed, resulting in destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, as well as further developments (such a as loss of the aerosol masking effect and sunspots reaching a peak) could all contribute to cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, trends in CO2

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Gases, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=MLO&program=ccgg&type=ts

• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html

• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Discussion at: https://www.facebook.com/SamCarana/posts/10169328525635161

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon

A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks. 

The image below uses ERA5 data, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on 1940-2022 data, points at 3°C rise by 2044. The purple trend, based on 2008-2022 data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and shows that this could trigger a rise of as much as 3°C by 2025, as further discussed below. Note that anomalies are from 1850-1900, which isn't pre-industrial.

The upcoming El Niño

Temperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post. The blue line added in the image highlights an increase in peak ONI (strong El Niños) over the years. 

The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.

Chances are that we'll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.

[ image adapted from NOAA ]

Joint impact of El Niño, sunspots and the volcano eruption near Tonga 

[ click on image to enlarge ]

An analysis in an earlier post warns that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make quite a difference, as the upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots.

The current cycle of sunspots is forecast to reach a maximum in July 2025. Recent observations are higher than expected, as illustrated by the images on the right, adapted from NOAA, confirming a study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference.

Observed values for December 2022 are already very close to or above the maximum values that NOAA predicts will be reached in July 2025. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found. 

A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022, as also discussed at facebook, will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.

The joint impact of a strong El Niño, high sunspots and the volcano eruption near Tonga could make a difference of more than 0.87°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as illustrated by the image at the top and as discussed below.

As illustrated by the image below,  temperature anomalies on land can be very high, especially during El Niño events. In February 2016, during a strong El Niño, the land-only monthly anomaly from 1880-1920 was 2.95°C. Note that anomalies are from 1880-1920, which isn't pre-industrial.

Further developments and feedbacks 

A combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise. An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.

Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year (see image on the right, adapted from NSIDC). 

Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year. The dangerous situation in Antarctica is discussed in more detail in a recent post. 

The currently very rapid decline in sea ice concentration around Antarctica is also illustrated by the animation of Climate Reanalyzer images on the right, showing Antarctic sea ice on November 16, November 29, December 15, 2022 and January 4, 2023.

Studies in Alaska and Greenland have found that submarine and ambient melting is substantially higher than previously thought.

Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below that shows that global sea ice extent was 16.67 million km² on January 5, 2023.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NSIDC, Arctic sea ice extent was second lowest for the time of year on January 6, 2023.

Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that - when present - consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream, additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

A 2019 analysis concludes that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when the sea surface temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere gets higher than 1°C above 20th century's temperature and when there is little or no thick sea ice left. 

The latent heat tipping point in the Arctic was crossed in 2020, while ocean heat has kept rising since, despite La Niña conditions, as illustrated by the images above and below. 

Temperature anomalies were high over the Arctic Ocean in December 2022, as illustrated by the image below. 

Ominously, methane levels are very high over the Arctic, as illustrated by the Copernicus image below and as discussed in section 16 of the methane page and at the Climate Alert group. 

The image below shows methane recorded by the N20 satellite on January 18, 2023, pm at 487.2 mb reaching a peak of 2624 ppb. 

The animation below is made with images recorded by the Metop-B satellite on Jan.6, 2023 PM, showing methane at the highest end of the scale (magenta color) first (at low altitude) becoming visible predominantly over oceans and at higher latitudes North, and then gradually becoming also visible more spread out over the globe at higher altitude, while reaching its highest mean (of 1925 ppb) and peak (of 2708 ppb) at 399 mb. 

This indicates that methane is rising up from the Arctic Ocean, as also discussed at the methane page and at this post at facebook. 

The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres.

Similarly, the image below shows a forecast for October 2023. 

There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as rising greenhouse gases (including water vapor), falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires, as also discussed at the Aerosols page. 

As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.

The image below shows dust as high as 9.1887 τ, i.e. light at 550 nm as a measurement of aerosol optical thickness due to dust aerosols, on January 23, 2023 01:00 UTC (at the green circle).

[ see the Extinction page ]

A 2023 study concludes that the amount of atmospheric desert dust has increased globally by about 55% since the mid-1800s, resulting in a net masking effect of −0.2 ± 0.5 W m⁻² for dust aerosols alone, more than climate models previously thought.

As discussed in an earlier post, the IPCC in AR6 estimates the aerosol ERF to be −1.3 W m⁻², adding that there has been an increase in the estimated magnitude of the total aerosol ERF relative to AR5. In AR6, the IPCC estimate for liquid water path (LWP, i.e., the vertically integrated cloud water) adjustment is 0.2 W m⁻², but a recent analysis found a forcing from LWP adjustment of −0.76 W m⁻², which would mean that the IPCC estimate of −1.3 W m⁻² should be changed to -2.26 W m⁻². When using a sensitivity of 1°C per W m⁻², this translates into an impact of -2.26°C and that doesn't even include the above-mentioned extra impact of dust. Furthermore, the IPCC's total for aerosols includes a net positive impact for warming aerosols such as black carbon, so the impact of cooling aerosols alone (without warming aerosols) will be even more negative.

The image on the right, from the extinction page, includes a potential rise of 1.9°C by 2026 as the sulfate cooling effect falls away and of 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols by 2026.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses our predicament.

Final conclusions and reflections

It's important to avoid using terminology that may cause confusion. The image below shows some terms that may cause confusion (left), and terms that could be considered to be used instead (right).

As an example, it's better to avoid terms such as 'overshoot' and target', as illustrated by the image below.  

It's important to look at the bigger picture and recognize that these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise (from pre-industrial) of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Also note that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post and underpinned by this post.

Earlier versions of the text in the image below were posted here and here. 

The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Copernicus temperature

https://climate.copernicus.eu/globe-2022

• NASA - La Niña Times Three

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150691/la-nina-times-three

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213/supplemental/page-2

• Sunspots

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html

• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4

• Tonga volcano eruption raises ‘imminent’ risk of temporary 1.5C breach https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach

• Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C - by Stuart Jenkins et al. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=seaice-snowc&ortho=7&wt=1

• Meltwater Intrusions Reveal Mechanisms for Rapid Submarine Melt at a Tidewater Glacier - by Rebecca Jackson et al. (2019)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085335

• Greenland’s Glaciers Might Be Melting 100 Times As Fast As Previously Thought (2022)
https://news.utexas.edu/2022/12/15/greenlands-glaciers-might-be-melting-100-times-as-fast-as-previously-thought

• An Improved and Observationally-Constrained Melt Rate Parameterization for Vertical Ice Fronts of Marine Terminating Glaciers - by Kirstin Schulz et al. (2022)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL100654

• National Institute of Polar Research, Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4) - Global Maps

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps

• NOAA - Climate at a Glance Global Time Series

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/ann/12/1880-2022

• Critical Tipping Point Crossed In July 2019

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/critical-tipping-point-crossed-in-july-2019.html

• Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans - by Lijing Cheng et al. 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2

• Copernicus - methane

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts

• NOAA - methane MetOp-B satellite

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/heap/iasi/iasiproducts.html

• Methane - section 16. Methane rising from Arctic Ocean seafloor

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/methane.html

• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html

• Jet Stream

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0

• Methane keeps rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html

• Global warming in the pipeline - by James Hansen et al. 
https://export.arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2212/2212.04474.pdf

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• When will humans go extinct?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Accelerating Methane Rise

NOAA's October 2021 global mean methane reading is 1907.2 parts per billion (ppb), which is 17.1 ppb higher than the reading for October 2020. By comparison, NOAA's annual global mean methane increase of 15.74 ppb for 2020 was at the time the highest on record.

Keep in mind that this 1907.2 ppb reading is for October 2021; it now is February 2022. Furthermore, NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements; more methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes.

The  image below shows that the MetOp-B satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2904 ppb at 469 mb on February 4, 2022 am. 

Methane levels are very high over the Arctic. The image below shows high recent monthly average methane levels at Barrow, Alaska. 

Carbon dioxide levels over the Arctic are also very high. The image below shows high recent daily average carbon dioxide levels at Barrow, Alaska. 

The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.


Links

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface monthly mean methane data
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt

• NOAA - globally averaged marine surface annual mean methane growth rates
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_gr_gl.txt

• NOAA - Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) Sounding Products (MetOp)
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi

• NOAA - Carbon Cycle Gases, Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, United States
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW

• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/graph.html

• Human Extinction by 2022?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/terrifying-arctic-methane-levels.html

• Terrifying Arctic methane levels continue
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html