Sunspots

The combination image below, adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots (top) and for the F10.7cm radio flux (bottom) for cycle 25, up to April 2022, as well as the values predicted by NOAA.


Within a few years time, sunspots are expected to reach the peak of the current solar cycle (number 25). As above image shows, NOAA predicts the maximum for cycle 25 to be reached in July 2025, when NOAA predicts the number of sunspots to be 115.3 and radio flux to be 135.8. However, as the above image also shows, observed values for April 2022 are already very close to the maximum values predicted by NOAA to be reached in July 2025. 

Green dot: NOAA/NASA amplitude prediction. Purple dot: study's amplitude prediction

These high observations appear to confirm the findings of a 2020 study by Scott McIntosh et al. that, due to interactions with earlier cycles, sunspot Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began (see above image, from the study). 



According to above image, from IPCC AR4 SPM, solar irradiance corresponds with a radiative forcing of 0.12 W/m², with a range of 0.06 to 0.3 W/m².


Links

NOAA - Space Weather Prediction Center
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

The Termination Event has Arrived - by Tony Phillips
Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude - by Scott McIntosh et al. (2020)

IPCC - Radiative forcing components - from IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM (2007)