Double Blue Ocean Event 2026?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2026. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice falls to or under 1 million km², which could occur early 2026 for Antarctic sea ice area and in Summer 2026 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice area.

Arctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 2.70 million km² on September 9, 2025, the fourth-lowest minimum area, as illustrated by the image below. 

The low Arctic sea ice area is worrying, especially when considering that this minimum was reached in the absence of El Niño conditions. Lower air temperatures are now causing rapid growth of Arctic sea area, which is sealing off the Arctic Ocean and this makes it more difficult for ocean heat to be transferred to the atmosphere. Furthermore, Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on September 16, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below. 

More ocean heat could therefore reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to be released. Eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean is one of the most dangerous feedbacks of rising temperatures. As the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean heats up, heat can penetrate sediments and cause destabilization of hydrates, resulting in eruption of methane. Since the seas in the Arctic Ocean can be very shallow, methane eruptions can occur abruptly, with great force and in the form of plumes, leaving little opportunity for the methane to get decomposed in the water. Furthermore, there is very little hydroxyl in the air over the Arctic, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic.

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]

The above image illustrates the danger. Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.

The danger is also illustrated by the image below, adapted from an image issued by NOAA September 18, 2025, showing hourly methane averages recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North. 

Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual maximum of 13.73 million km² on September 5, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.08σ, as illustrated by the image below. 

Loss of sea ice area results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead more heat getting absorbed by the ocean. 

[ image from earlier post ]

Sea ice area is low at both poles, despite the absence of El Niño conditions. Low global sea ice area causes more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean. Global sea ice area was 2.40 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on September 16, 2025, a deviation from 1981-2010 of 3.91σ. 

With sea ice area low at both poles, global sea ice area could fall further over the next few months, thus causing even more sunlight to get absorbed by the ocean and threatening to cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026.  

On March 1, 2025, Antarctic sea ice area reached an annual minimum of 1.21 million km², almost as low as the 1.09 million km² reached on February 22, 2023 (highlighted), as illustrated by the image below. 

A study by Duspayev et al. (2024) calculates that global sea ice has lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, corresponding with an implied global sea ice albedo feedback of 0.24–0.38 W m⁻² K⁻¹.

The IPCC has failed to warn about Antarctic sea ice decline, and - importantly - the amplifying impact of Antarctic sea ice decline on the global temperature rise. This was addressed in a 2023 post as follows:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, since Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post [and in the video below]. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation in Antarctica. 

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event early 2026 would further accelerate the global temperature rise, thus likely causing an Arctic Blue Ocean Event as well later in 2026. Further increasing this danger is the potential for an El Niño to emerge in the course of 2026. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Kevin Pluck - Sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Dire State of Climate

El Niño may emerge early 2026

On the image below, very high sea surface temperature anomalies (vs 1981-2011) are showing up in the Northern Hemisphere, as high as 17.1°C or 30.8°F in the Gulf of Ob, where the water of the Ob River flows into the Kara Sea (at the location marked by the green circle).

At the same time, water is colder than 1981-2011 in the equatorial Pacific region, causing a La Niña to emerge, which means that current temperatures are actually suppressed.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that fluctuates from El Niño to La Niña conditions and back. El Niño raises temperatures, whereas La Niña suppresses temperatures. This year, there have been neutral to borderline La Niña conditions, as illustrated by the image below, which also shows that over the past few months, there has been a zigzag pattern of rises and falls around the mean sea surface temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño. On August 28, 2025, the temperature reached an anomaly of -0.47°C, indicating a move into La Niña conditions.

The image below shows the July 2025 sea surface temperature anomaly vs 1951-1980. Note the higher than 10°C anomalies in the Kara Sea in the Arctic Ocean (white area, anomalies are compared to 1951-1980).

The image below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly on August 27, 2025, this time versus 1971-2000. Note the large area with high temperature anomalies in the Kara Sea and the colder temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region. These colder temperatures indicate the absence of El Niño, i.e. the high temperature anomalies are reached while temperatures are actually suppressed.

   [ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image on the right, the sea surface temperatures of the U.S. North Atlantic were as high as 32.8°C on August 24, 2025, the same peak temperature that was reached on August 5, 2025.

The image shows heat moving north along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to cause more loss of sea ice and permafrost.

Heat naturally flows from hot to cold areas. Furthermore, warm water floats on top of colder water because it is less dense, resulting in stratification. This in combination with the Coriolis effect causes higher sea surface temperatures along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, as indicated by water with an orange color on the image. 

Similarly, warm water moves along the path of the Kuroshio Current in the North Pacific. 

   [ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures around North America as high as 33°C on August 27, 2025. Despite the current absence of El Niño conditions, extreme weather events have hit many areas around the world over the past few months. As an earlier post warns, feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost can rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Temperatures have been very high and Arctic sea ice is in a dire state, as illustrated by the images further below that show record high daily temperatures in the Arctic, even in the current absence of El Niño conditions. El Niño ended April 2024. 

As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026. 

[ image from earlier post ]

The image on the right, adapted from ECMWF, shows an ENSO forecast for developments in Niño3.4 through August 2026, indicating that the next El Niño may emerge early 2026 and grow in strength in the course of 2026.

High temperatures in absence of El Niño

In the Northern Hemisphere, the 2024 temperature anomaly was 1.701°C higher than the 1951-1980 mean, as discussed in an earlier post. This high temperature anomaly constitutes a 14.349σ event, as illustrated by the image below.

[ image from earlier post ]

So, what happened in 2025? In the absence of El Niño, one would expect temperatures to fall. However, as illustrated by the image below, monthly deviations from the 1951-1980 mean temperature have risen in the Northern Hemisphere, reaching a standard deviation of 10.673 in July 2025 (vs 1951-1980).

In statistics, the empirical rule states that in a normal distribution, 68% of the observed data will occur within one standard deviation (1σ), 95% within two standard deviations (2σ), and 99.7% within three standard deviations (3σ) of the mean. A 4σ event indicates that the observed result is 4 standard deviations (4σ) away from the expected mean. In a normal distribution, 99.993666% of data points would fall within this range. The chance for data to at random fall outside of 4σ is thus infinitesimally small.

As said, the 2024 temperature anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere was a 14.349σ event. Natural variability fails to explain such an anomaly. This year, in the absence of El Niño, monthly deviations from the 1951-1980 mean have risen in the Northern Hemisphere, reaching a standard deviation of 10.673 in July 2025. This indicates that El Niño alone cannot be blamed for this rise, not even in combination with reductions of the aerosol masking effect. What appears to be driving the acceleration of the temperature rise most strongly is a combination of feedbacks including loss of snow and ice, loss of lower clouds, changes to soil moisture and water vapor in the atmosphere, changes to ocean currents and wind patterns, etc.

As illustrated by the image below, the temperature in the Arctic (66.5–90°N, 0–360°E) was 4.33°C on August 24, 2025, a record high for that day and an anomaly of +2.53°C versus 1979-2000. The inset shows a map with Arctic temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 highlighted on August 24, 2025. 

The image below shows a larger version of the inset, with temperatures over the Arctic (66.5–90°N, 0–360°E) highlighted on August 24, 2025. Note that the temperature anomaly also was very high over Antarctica on August 24, 2025. 

Albedo loss

The next El Niño could be catastrophic, given the dire state of the climate, which is getting increasingly dire, as emissions keep rising, albedo keeps falling, and feedbacks keep growing in strength. The fall in albedo is illustrated by the image below, created with an image by Eliot Jacobson.

The fall in albedo can be attributed to snow and ice decline, reductions in cooling aerosols (Hansen, May 2025) and changes in clouds (Loeb, 2024). Snow and ice decline and changes in clouds are self-amplifying feedbacks that can rapidly and strongly accelerate the temperature rise as well as trigger and amplify further feedbacks.

Snow and ice decline

The combination image below shows NASA Worldview Arctic sea ice at the northern tip of Greenland on August 27, 2025 (left), and on August 31, 2025 (right).

The image below shows the global sea ice extent anomaly through August 27, 2025, when the global sea ice extent was 2.91 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean, a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.87σ.

The global sea ice extent anomaly is far below the 1981-2010 mean and close to the anomalies of 2023 and 2024 that were far outside the 1981-2010 mean at this time of year. That is very worrying, more so given the current absence of El Niño conditions. Also, sea ice area is only one way of looking at the sea ice decline. The data for concentration, thickness and volume of Arctic sea ice make the situation even more worrying, as discussed below.

Heavy melting is taking place in the Arctic. The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 31, 2025. 

The combination image below compares Arctic sea ice on August 17, 2025, i.e. concentration (left) and thickness (right).

In the panel on the right of the above image, melt pools may give the impression of zero thickness in areas close to the North Pole. Melt pools can indicate that rainfall and/or heavy melting is taking place. 

The image below shows temperature anomalies on August 21, 2025 (left) and on August 22, 2025 (right). As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, in the Northern Hemisphere water evaporates from the sea surface of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Prevailing winds carry much water vapor in the direction of the Arctic. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean freshens the surface, forming a buffer that temporarily slows down the decline of the sea ice extent. Similarly, much of the precipitation over land is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, also freshening the surface of the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, heavy melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few months has added further freshwater to the surface of the Arctic Ocean. The slowdown of AMOC can also create a buffer by delaying the transport of ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean. This makes the dire state of Arctic sea ice very significant, even more so since we're in borderline La Niña conditions. Given the increase of Earth's Energy Imbalance and the additional heat that is instead accumulating in the north Pacific and the North Atlantic, more heat looks set to eventually reach the Arctic Ocean, overwhelming such buffers and threatening to cause Arctic sea ice collapse.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image below shows the precipitable water anomaly on August 21, 2025 (left) and on August 22, 2025 (right).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, in the Southern Hemisphere water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and part of it falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer, as also illustrated by the above image that shows persistently high precipitable water anomalies over Antarctica over the past two days (on August 20, 2025 and on August 21, 2025). As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. As also discussed in an earlier post, saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

The image below shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the day on August 31, 2025, as it has been for more than a year. Volume is important, as also discussed on facebook. 

As the image below shows, Arctic sea ice reached a new record annual low volume in September 2024.

On the image below, markers are added for September (red) and April (blue) corresponding with the year's minimum- and maximum volume, confirming the downward path since 2015 for both the annual sea ice volume minimum and maximum.

Arctic sea ice volume has steadily declined since 2005, as the above measurements by the Danish Meteorological Institute show. Arctic sea ice volume now is less than 5000 km³, about half of what the volume was in 2004-2013.

Absence of thick sea ice makes it prone to collapse, and this raises the question whether it could collapse soon, even this year. Storms could rapidly push the remaining pieces of thicker sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. Such storms could also mix surface heat all the way down to the seafloor, especially in areas where seas are shallow. 

Methane

[ The Buffer is gone, from Accelerating Temperature Rise ]

Sea ice constitutes a buffer that previously consumed much incoming ocean heat (left); as sea ice thins, the buffer disappears while more heat also enters the Arctic Ocean (right). Further heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean threatens to destabilize sediments that contain methane, causing eruption of huge amounts of methane.

As temperatures rise, methane concentrations are increasing due to more fires and decomposing organic carbon.

In addition, rising temperatures threaten to destabilize sediments containing vast amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas, causing huge amounts of methane to erupt and enter the atmosphere. 

[ from earlier post ]

The image on the right shows fires over Canada on August 30, 2025. Smoke (grey) from fires and fire hotspots (red makers) are visible. The image is a NASA Worldview screenshot. Smoke and black carbon (soot) from forest fires blacken the surface when settling on it, thus reducing albedo and speeding up the demise of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.

Furthermore, forest fires come with emissions including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane. The image below shows a (+3 h) forecast for methane concentration at surface level valid for August 31, 2025 (run August 31, 2025).

Over the Arctic, there is very little hydroxyl in the air, which extends the lifetime of methane over the Arctic. 

The temperature is already rising much more rapidly in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world, so such developments can act as strong self-amplifying feedbacks.

The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

The image below shows that the NOAA 20 satellite recorded methane levels as high as 2507 parts per billion (ppb) at 399.1 mb on August 26, 2025 AM. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to decreases in buffers (as described in earlier posts such as this one), due to strengthening feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, which are all developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks.

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Nullschool.net

https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer

https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - sea surface temperatures 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html

Also discussed on facebook at: 

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10172670654340161&set=p.10172670654340161

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• ECMWF - El Niño forecast

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes

• Extreme Heat Risk

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/08/extreme-heat-risk.html

• NASA - Worldview

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• University of Bremen

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• NOAA - CarbonTracker-CH4

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/carbontracker-ch4

• The Methane Monster

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-methane-monster.html
discussed on facebook at:

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10155795692800161

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Copernicus 

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu

• Transforming Society

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more

The April 2024 temperature was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C.

The April 2024 temperature was 1.62°C higher than 1900-1930, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. The red line highlights acceleration of the temperature rise (Lowess Smoothing). 

The image below, created with NOAA content, uses a LOESS filter (green line) to highlight the recent acceleration in the temperature rise of the ocean. In this case, the temperature anomaly is calculated versus a 1901-2000 base. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The temperature anomaly is even higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The image below, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below, created with NASA content, shows Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

[ from earlier post ]

The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024). What could be behind such a steep rise? 

Have Feedbacks taken over? 

In April 2024, El Niño conditions were still dominant. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high recently. The correlation between El Niño and temperature anomalies (from 1901-2000) is illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content, El Niño conditions are no longer dominant. Instead, neutral conditions now prevail and La Niña conditions may develop as early as June-August 2024 (49% chance) or one month later, i.e. July-September (69% chance). 

The extremely high recent temperatures and the trends depicted in the images further above raise the question as to what the underlying driver is, given that we're no longer in an El Niño. Indeed, the question is whether feedbacks have taken over as the main driver causing the temperature rise to further accelerate. 

[ from Moistening Atmosphere ]

As mentioned above, the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C higher than pre-industrial. The extinction page points out that a 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.

There is no single feedback that could cause the recent steep rise of temperatures and its acceleration, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-amplifying feedback loops that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise. 

Such feedbacks do include more water vapor, as said, as well as stronger wind, waves and storms, more ocean stratification, faster loss of sea ice, faster loss of reflectivity of clouds and more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation.

Furthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions over the past few years all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Two tipping points threaten to get crossed

For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. 

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1991-2020 on May 31, 2024. 

The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic harder than elsewhere, as illustrated by the images at the top and below, created with NASA content. 

Contributing to these high temperatures in the Arctic are high temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean, which are now rising rapidly, in line with seasonal changes, as illustrated by the image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer content. 

The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 22.4°C on May 31, 2024, higher than the temperature in 2023 for this time of year. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic, due to prevailing winds and ocean circulation.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now rising strongly, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023. The question is how high the North Atlantic temperature will be in 2024 at that time of year. 

The image below shows North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1982-2011. Data shown are from September 1, 1981, through May 31, 2024.

As discussed, one reason for the high temperatures of the North Atlantic is that sulfur emissions have been reduced over the years. Furthermore, there are many feedbacks. Importantly, there is potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, as also illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image highlights mechanisms with the potential to contribute to further heating up of the Arctic Ocean resulting in more methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Oceans, including storms and changes to the Jet Stream, as discussed before. e.g. in this post. 

One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, in this case the energy consumed as solid ice turns into liquid water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

As long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice has steadily been declining in thickness.

Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, and as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.  

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of sea ice thickness implies loss of the latent heat buffer and constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at accelerating pace. 

The above map, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, shows that much of the thicker sea ice is located away from the North Pole, such as off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.

Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ from earlier post ]

[ image from the Extinction page ]

On the above image, estimates for these two tipping points are added to Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Furthermore, two trends are added. The magenta trend is based on January 1880-January 2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend, which is based on January 2010-January 2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024.

Crossing of the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point results in ever more heat reaching and accumulating in the Arctic ocean, destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and developments as discussed above, as well as crossing of these two tipping points, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the Climate Emergency group.

Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - National Centers for Environment Information
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center / National Centers for Environmental Prediction
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Moistening Atmosphere

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/moistening-atmosphere.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Arctic sea ice under threat

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html

• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html