Showing posts with label climate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate. Show all posts

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Signals flashing red indicating further acceleration toward climate collapse

Greenhouse gas concentrations

The image below shows hourly (red circles) and daily (yellow circles) averaged carbon dioxide (CO₂) values from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, over 31 days. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026 (third yellow circle from the right). In bold on the image are recent daily averages, since March 24, 2026.


CO₂ average daily concentrations were at a record high of 431.95 parts per million (ppm), at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026. The image below shows daily (green circles), weekly (red lines) and monthly (blue lines) averages for the last year. The weekly average for the week beginning on March 22, 2026 was 430.93 ppm (red line top right).


The image below shows daily average CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 2020. The highest daily average CO₂ concentration on record, 431.95 ppm, was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on March 28, 2026.


Concentrations of carbon dioxide haven't been this high for millions of years, as confirmed by recent analysis led by Sarah Shackleton and Julia Marks-Peterson. Their analysis finds that, while the average temperature of the ocean has decreased by 2 to 2.5°C over the past 3 million years, average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have likely remained below 300 parts per million over this time. Methane levels have also remained relatively stable. This makes the recent daily concentration of 431.95 ppm at Mauna Loa and the high recent methane levels (see image below) even more threatening and it means that, in addition to the key role of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, there were important contributions from other components of the climate system such as Earth’s reflectivity, variations in vegetation and/or ice cover and ocean circulation.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above combination image shows methane levels as high as 2240 parts per billion (ppb) close to sea level (left panel, 1000 mb) and as high as 2541 ppb at a slightly higher altitude (right panel, 840 mb) recorded by the NOAA 21 satellite on March 11, 2026 AM. The combination image below shows methane levels as high as 231 ppb at 1000 mb (left panel) and as high as 2576 ppb at 399.1 mb (right panel) recorded by the NOAA 20 satellite on March 11, 2026 PM.


Together, these combination images support the suggestion that a burst of methane did enter the atmosphere at a location over the ocean, resulting in very high methane levels in the morning slightly above sea level and even higher methane levels higher up in the atmosphere later that day. 

Sea surface temperature

The image below shows world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperatures from NOAA OISST V2.1. The sea surface temperature was 21.15°C on March 27, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and a +0.75°C anomaly compared to 1982-2010. The sea surface temperature has risen by 0.46°C since the start of 2026.


Furthermore, changes in salinity and ocean currents, together with ocean stratification, ocean oxygen depletion and sea ice loss can result in oceans changing from heat sinks into heat sources, resulting in more heat remaining in the air and getting transferred to the air, as discussed in earlier post such as this one and as discussed in this analysis, also discussed here.

Earth Albedo

The image below, adapted from an image by Eliot Jacobson, shows now much the Earth Albedo (reflectivity) has fallen from February 23 through January 2026.


Arctic sea ice

One of the contributors to albedo loss is Arctic sea ice loss. The image below, adapted from NSIDC, shows that on March 25, 2026, the Arctic sea ice extent was 14.011 million km², the lowest extent on record for the time of year.

The image below, adapted from ads.nipr.ac.jp, shows that Arctic sea ice extent was 13.37 million km² on March 27, 2026, the lowest sea ice extent on record for the time of year. 

The situation is very dangerous, since we're moving out of a La Niña (which is suppressing the temperature) into an El Niño (which will be elevating the temperature). 

The danger is that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in 2026 if Arctic sea ice continues to be low and if melting from April 2026 onward will be strong. A Blue Ocean Event can be said to occur when virtually no sea ice remains to keep consuming ocean heat that is entering the Arctic Ocean mainly from the Atlantic Ocean. Virtually no sea ice could be 1 million km² or less in sea ice extent, but it could also be measured in area, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice area was the lowest on record on March 25, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 13.43 million km² on March 25, 2012, and area was 12.31 million km² on March 25, 2026, i.e. a difference of 1.12 million km² and the same difference as there was on March 20, 2026. Arctic sea ice area was 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, so with this difference persisting, Arctic sea ice area would be 1.12 million km² in September 2026, or very close to a Blue Ocean Event.


The danger that a Blue Ocean Event will occur in September 2026 is further illustrated by the image below. The image, from an earlier post, which shows Arctic sea ice volume in the past 25 years. Markers show April (blue) and September (red) volume, corresponding with the year's maximum and minimum. In 2025, Arctic sea ice reached a record low maximum volume, as well as a record low minimum volume.


As illustrated by the above image, adapted from dmi.dk, Arctic sea ice volume was very low in April 2025, so while relatively little melting took place from April 2025 to September 2025, a record low Arctic sea ice volume was still reached in September 2025. The above image shows Arctic sea ice volume through mid February 2026, with an analysis of the strength of the melting between April (annual maximum) and September (annual minimum) by means of the bars colored magenta (strong melting) and green (little melting).

If the downward trend in annual maxima (blue circles) continues, Arctic sea ice looks set to reach an even lower maximum volume in April 2026. The difference between strong melting (magenta) and little melting (green) is 3000 km³, so if strong melting will take place from April 2026, this may well cause a Blue Ocean Event to occur later in 2026. A Blue Ocean Event could also be said to occur when only 1000 km³ or less Arctic sea ice volume remains. The image below, adapted from dmi.dk, shows that Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on March 31, 2026. 


Could the N.H land-only temperature rise by more than 3°C in 2027?

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows that the global surface air temperature was 14.31°C on March 26, 2026, the highest temperature on record for the time of year. 


Could the temperature rise by more than 3°C soon? The upcoming El Niño could trigger a rapid and steep rise in temperature on land in the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the combination image below that uses land-only data in the top panel and Northern Hemisphere data in the bottom panel. While the image shows NASA data from 2011 until 2028 (top panel, land-only) and data from 2011 until 2029 (bottom panel, N.H), the trends are calculated using annual data from 2010 through 2025. The quartic trends point at the temperature crossing 3°C in the Northern Hemisphere in early 2028 (bottom), and on land-only in early 2027.  


There are compound impacts such as that the temperature will rise faster on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and even faster during heatwaves in large cities where they are affected by the Urban Heat Island effect. Moreover, the 1880-1920 base is not pre-industrial, the outlook may be even more dire when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

Note also that the above are annual average temperature anomalies, i.e. the average for higher and lower anomalies during the year. A recent study shows that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2°C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3°C or 4°C warming. Indeed, the peaks are more critical than the averages. 

Recent research finds that, while fully frozen permafrost can be considered both to function as a seal preventing subsurface gases being released, and to prevent the creation of new CO₂ and CH₄, gas permeability increases by about 25–100 times during thawing, with most permeability change occurring in the −5°C to −1°C range, indicating that the protective gas seal previously provided by permafrost will be lost as permafrost thaws.

The danger is that the temperature will not merely "overshoot" the 3°C threshold, but that the temperature will continue to rise, especially on land in the Northern Hemisphere, and accelerate over the Arctic. Given the severity, ubiquity and imminence of the danger, one would think that highlighting the danger will prompt people into taking effective climate action, but the outlook is that the temperature will continue to rise for at least a few years, hence the choice of the trend and the canvas, which in the above image is limited to 3°C and until 2028, respectively 2029 (as also discussed on facebook here).

Polynomial trends such as the one in the above image can highlight warnings about dangers that are discussed in this post and in earlier posts, in particular warnings that a strong El Niño is on the way which could cause a strong rise in temperature in the course of 2026 and trigger further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Indeed, the rise resulting from a strong El Niño would come on top of a temperature rise that is already accelerating due to high concentrations of greenhouse gases, while deforestation and numerous feedbacks are kicking in with greater ferocity, and while the temperature rise is amplified in the Arctic (see image below, from earlier post), which could lead to a Blue Ocean Event soon, further speeding up the temperature rise and resulting in loss of permafrost, eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, further loss of lower clouds, etc.


The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the 2025 Arctic temperature was 3.431°C higher than in 1951-1980. The only year on record that had an anomaly higher than 2025 was 2016, when there was a super El Niño.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.



Links

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases - Mauna Loa, Hawaii
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer - Mauna Loa, Hawaii

• NOAA - Office of satellite and product operations - HEAP NUCAPS

• Broadly stable atmospheric CO2 and CH4 levels over the past 3 million years - by Julia Marks-Peterson et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10032-y
and
• Global ocean heat content over the past 3 million years - by Sarah Shackleton et al.

• Earth Albedo - by Eliot Jacobson

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html
quartic trend analysis was discussed earlier on facebook at: 

• NSIDC - Sea Ice Extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Copernicus

• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - by Emanuele Bevacqua et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164067383004679

• Measurement of Gas Fraction and Gas Permeability of Thawing Permafrost Caused by Climate Change - by Paul Glover et al. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF007232
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Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Should people be told?

The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at.

China is important, it has a large well-educated population and a large part of global emissions is released in China. Some countries face even more dire prospects. Have people been told how dire the situation is? The general lack of climate action around the world suggests that people have not been sufficiently informed. Moreover, many scientists, journalists, judges, politicians and civil servants bluntly refuse to inform people.

[ from earlier post ]
[ Top: Extreme risk impact, adapted from Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk (2025). 
Bottom: 5.163°C rise, climatereanalyzer.org image, from earlier post ]

The image below shows the January 2025 temperature anomaly, compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base. 

The image below shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 19 consecutive months (July 2023 through January 2025). The anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).


Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.

While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.33°C on February 11, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to and based on the data, despite La Niña. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

La Niña conditions are currently present. The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomaly through January 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ]

Despite the presence of La Niña, temperatures keep rising. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows a NOAA forecast dated February 13, 2025. 


The potential for a huge temperature rise within a few months time

Earth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.

There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. Furthermore, the temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents that could cause extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration and area covered, and oceans to take up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time.

According to an earlier analysis, the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is?

Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

[ from earlier post ]
The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.

Antarctic sea ice is moving toward 1 million km² in area, a threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be declared in the Southern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Researchers on board the ship Sarmiento de Gamboa recently observed columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide. Researchers looked for leaks on the edges of Antarctica, according to a recent news report. “We have estimated that in this area there are some 24 gigatons of carbon accumulated in methane hydrates”, warns Roger Urgeles, of the Institute of Marine Sciences, based in Barcelona, leaders of the expedition.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event alone would dramatically increase Earth's Heat Imbalance. The combination of low sea ice area around Antarctica and in the Arctic looks set to cause a dramatic temperature rise over the coming months. 

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]
Persistently low global sea ice area therefore also threatens a Blue Ocean Event to occur in the Arctic later this year. 

Ominously, Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing Arctic sea ice volume on February 15, 2025. 

An Arctic Blue Ocean Event threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing eruptions of huge amounts of methane, with the resulting temperature rise in the Arctic causing permafrost on land to thaw strongly and abruptly, in turn causing additional greenhouse gas releases. 

The above image shows methane as high as 2561 ppb at 399.1 mb recorded by the N21 satellite on February 5, 2025 am. 

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]
The stacked bar chart on the right includes (at the bottom) a potential 2.29°C for the rise in temperature from pre-industrial to 2020. 

A rise of 0.5°C is included for the additional CO₂ released through 2026 and for the rising impact of the recently emitted CO₂. Note that the chart was first conceived in 2016, so the impact of the CO₂ released from 2016 to today has meanwhile already eventuated. 

Changes in aerosols are given the potential for a 1.9°C rise due to reductions in cooling aerosols (mainly sulfate), while a 0.6°C rise is included due to additional warming gases and aerosols. 

In the bar chart, a potential rise of 1.6°C is reached by the end of 2026 as a result of snow and ice loss and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents. 

An additional 1.1°C is reached as a result of eruption of methane from the seafloor, while additional greenhouse gas emissions result in a 0.35°C rise. 

The temperature rise itself triggers further feedbacks such as an increase of water vapor in the atmosphere (2.1°C) and loss of lower clouds (8°C). Altogether, the rise could reach 18.44°C by the end of 2026. Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. at the extinction page. Note the above-mentioned warning that humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Berkeley Earth - policy insights
https://berkeleyearth.org/policy-insights

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Why downplay the need for action?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-downplay-the-need-for-action.html

• Paris Agreement
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement

• pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - Finding our balance with nature: introducing Planetary Solvency
https://blog.actuaries.org.uk/finding-our-balance-with-nature-introducing-planetary-solvency
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162300677224679

• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña through January 2025
Also discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162344453619679

• IRI - CPC Official Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

• Massive methane leaks detected in Antarctica, posing potential risks for global warming
https://english.elpais.com/climate/2025-02-12/massive-methane-leaks-detected-in-antarctica-posing-potential-risks-for-global-warming.html
Also discussed on facebook at: 






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Saturday, January 18, 2025

Why downplay the need for action?

The 2024 global average surface temperature was 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 average, according to WMO’s consolidated analysis of six datasets. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Differences between datasets are mainly due to the ways temperatures are measured, e.g. ERA5 measures the temperature of the air above oceans, whereas NASA and NOAA measure the surface temperature of the water, which is lower. There can also be differences in how temperatures are measured in areas with sea ice - the sea ice can be measured, or the water underneath the sea ice, or the air above the sea ice. Also, in some areas there once was sea ice that has meanwhile disappeared. Different ways of measuring things can raise the temperature record by as much as 0.2°C and even more in case of earlier years, where the margin of error is also larger. 

Importantly, the temperature rise in the above image is compared to the period 1850-1900, which is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly may already have been above the 2°C threshold in 2015, when politicians at the Paris Agreement pledged that this threshold wouldn't be crossed.

[ from earlier post ]
“Individual years pushing past the 1.5 degree limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot", UN Secretary-General Antóno Guterres says: “It is important to emphasize that a single year of more than 1.5°C for a year does NOT mean that we have failed to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals, which are measured over decades rather than an individual year", WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo adds. 

However, for this argument to hold, the average anomaly would need to fall to under 1.5°C from now. Should we really have to wait for another decade or two, before a confirmation is allowed to be issued that 1.5°C has been crossed. Isn't such a mandate part of downplaying how dire the situation is, an effort to delay the necessary action? Moreover, does such a mandate make sense? 
[ click on images to enlarge ]
[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]

To illustrate this point, the above image uses NASA anomalies (blue dots) that are conservatively compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base, with data going back to 2010. The image thus shows a 30-year review period centered around January 1, 2025. Eight imaginary years of data have been added beyond existing data, extending the trend into the future (yellow dots). The wide pink trend is based on both NASA existing data and these imaginary data, jointly covering data from 2010-2032. The narrow black trend is not based on imaginary data, it is purely based on existing data, from 2010-2024, showing the potential for such a trend to eventuate when using existing (i.e. past) data only.

In case such a trend would indeed eventuate, confirmation of the crossing of the 1.5°C threshold should NOT be delayed until all the years of a 30-year period have been entirely completed. In fact, 2°C (vs 1951-1980) would already be crossed early 2026. In the course of 2032, a 16°C rise would be reached, while the average anomaly for the period 2010-2032 would be higher than 3°C (vs 1951-1980) with still 7 years to go before the 30-year period would be completed.

Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the update of the image below with daily data and added trends. 

[ Temperature anomaly with ENSO shading, trends added, click on images to enlarge ]
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.28°C on January 24, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to the data, despite La Niña. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

Human extinction at 3°C

If the temperature does indeed keep rising rapidly, the anomaly compared to pre-industrial may soon be higher than 3°C, implying that humans are already functionally extinct, especially if no decisive, comprehensive and effective action is taken.

Analysis by Shona and Bradshaw (2019) finds that, due to co-extinction, global biodiversity collapse occurs at around 5°C heating, as discussed in this 2019 post. The post adds the warning that a rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026, and that humans who depend on many other species will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.


A recent study by Joseph Williamson et al. finds that many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points. This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur. 

Antarctic sea ice

Antarctic sea ice is losing thickness, as illustrated by the images below, showing thickness from August 27, 2024, to January 21, 2025. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
Measuring polar temperatures

As mentioned above, different ways of measuring polar temperatures can lead to different results. The combination image below illustrates that using a different smoothing radius for Arctic measurements can result in different anomalies. Gray areas signify missing data. Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100 km of a reporting land station.


The image below shows December 2024 Arctic temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1980 using ERA5 data.

The above image raises the question as to what caused the low anomalies over Greenland and Baffin Bay, compared to the rest of the Arctic. This could be caused by changes to wind and ocean currents. 

Changes to wind and ocean currents

The increase in the Earth's energy imbalance results in an increase in kinetic energy in the atmosphere and oceans, i.e. stronger wind and stronger ocean currents, both in longitudinal and latitudinal directions. An earlier post points at a study that found increased kinetic energy in about 76% of the upper 2,000 meters of global oceans, as a result of intensification of surface winds since the 1990s.

While the wind overall is strengthening, the wind mainly appears to be strengthening in latitudinal directions. The Coriolis Effect contributes to that, but strengthening of latitudinal winds appears to be getting stronger over the years. Loss of sea ice at the poles comes with loss of albedo, a self-reinforcing feedback that contributes to polar amplification of the temperature rise, which contributes to the reasons why longitudinal wind is not strengthening as much as latitudinal wind.

Polar amplification of global warming narrows the difference in temperature between the Equator and the Poles, which results in a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles (longitudinal wind). This causes changes in both wind patterns and ocean currents, such as deformation of the Jet Stream, slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and changes in ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat from the Southern Ocean closer to Antarctica and from there to the deeper ocean. 



Deformation of the Jet Stream can cause cold air from the Arctic to descend deep over the continents. 

[ temperature of -37°C in Colorado ]
The image on the right shows that a temperature of -37.0°C (or -34.7°F) was recorded in Colorado on January 21, 2025 (07:00 UTC).

Very low North American temperatures occurred, while sea surface temperatures kept increasing. Such conditions can strongly increase the temperature difference between land and sea, especially during the northern summer. This can in turn further strengthen latitudinal wind. 

On January 25, 2025 07:00 UTC, wind at 250 hPa (Jet Stream) at the green circle is forecast to reach a speed of 401 km/h and wind power density of 271.3 kW/m². 

[ strong wind over the North Atlantic, click on images to enlarge ]
While such conditions vary with the weather, all such mechanisms can contribute to strengthening wind speed, especially in latitudinal directions, as illustrated by the image below.


The above image shows the wind speed anomaly in December 2024 at 250 hPa (Jet Stream). The image below shows how this keeps cold air in December 2024 at 250 hPa over elevated land in the Arctic in place, thus keeping temperatures low over Greenland and Baffin Island. 


As temperatures rise, stronger horizontal (latitudinal) wind will result in more heat accumulating in the Atlantic ocean, the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. 

At times, though, wind can abruptly and dramatically strengthen in vertical (longitudinal) direction. This can be facilitated by geological features, e.g. in the North Atlantic, there is an easy pathway northward from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean. At times, the wind and ocean currents along this path can be accelerated by weather conditions such as storms and hurricanes.  



As an example, the above image shows a forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, of strong wind at 250 hPa over the North Atlantic. The image below shows a forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, of temperature anomalies. 


As temperatures rise, a lot of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface. Much of that heat can be pushed abruptly into the Arctic by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward. Accordingly, this can cause a huge temperature peak in the Arctic. Similar hazards apply to the water and sea ice around Antarctica. 

The impact of extreme weather events can be missed in climate models that average away peaks in temperature and wind strength. However, wind peaks can contribute to massive storm damage, flooding and fire hazards. The joint impact of high temperature peaks and high humidity can cause fatal heat stress. High temperatures and strong wind can also cause a sudden decline of sea ice that can contribute to cause huge amounts of methane to erupt abruptly from the seafloor, in turn contributing strongly to temperature rises that are not foreseen in many climate models.

Arctic sea ice

Meanwhile, ocean heat keeps increasing, resulting in melting of sea ice from below. The image below shows Arctic sea ice extent through January 19, 2025. 

[ Arctic sea ice extent, click on images to enlarge ]
During the first few months of the year, Arctic sea ice is still growing in extent. In the above image, the red line and red marker shows 2025 sea ice extent. Dots mark Arctic sea ice extent on January 19 for the respective year and Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on January 19, 2025, despite La Niña conditions. 

A new El Niño may emerge in the course of 2025, while both Arctic sea ice extent and volume are at record low, while numerous self-reinforcing feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity and while further mechanisms drive up temperatures such as high sunspots. Such a combination of mechanisms could cause a huge temperature rise and a Blue Ocean Event in 2025, threatening huge amounts of methane to erupt from the seafloor.

[ Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature anomaly, click to enlarge] 
[ Arctic sea ice volume, click on images to enlarge]
The above image shows a green circle south of Svalbard with a 5.1°C sea surface temperature on January 18, 2025, 3.4°C higher than 1981-2011. 

High ocean temperatures result in low Arctic sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image on the right and as discussed in this earlier post.

Guy McPherson discussed the consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the video below, adding that "a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control. The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth. 
I’m not a fan." 


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

 • WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level

• Met Office - 2024: record-breaking watershed year for global climate 
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/2024-record-breaking-watershed-year-for-global-climate

• Berkeley Earth - Global Temperature Report for 2024 
https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024

• NASA - Goddard Institute Surface Temperature (GISTEMP v4) analysis 
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• NASA - Temperatures Rising: NASA Confirms 2024 Warmest Year on Record 

• NOAA - 2024 was the world’s warmest year on record 
https://www.noaa.gov/news/2024-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record

• Paris Agreement
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement

• pre-industrial

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet - by Joseph Williamson et al.
also discussed on Facebook at: 

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Arctic and Antarctic Data Archive System (ADS) of the National Institute of Polar Research of Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp

• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
• Guy McPherson - consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030 - by Céline Heuzé et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3
also discussed on facebook at: 

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

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