Showing posts with label thickness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thickness. Show all posts

Friday, September 4, 2026

Water near North Pole

Water is visible near the North Pole, as illustrated by the satellite image below, dated September 4, 2026.


With much water being visible near the North Pole, Arctic sea ice volume is currently not the lowest for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below. 

Why isn't Arctic sea ice volume currently at a record low? There still is a lot of relatively thick sea ice present North of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The image below shows Arctic sea ice thickness on September 7, 2026. 


Rising temperatures and distortion of the Jet Stream can cause extreme weather events to become more extreme. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). As illustrated by the combination image below, this can cause more snow to fall over the Arctic Ocean, which can thicken the sea ice or contribute to more freshwater at the surface. 

[ Forecasts for September 5, 2026. Click on images to enlarge ]
Stronger heatwaves and storms over land can also cause increasingly larger amounts of freshwater to get added to the surface of the Arctic Ocean in the form of water from rivers and from runoff from land, as illustrated by the image below. Less salty water can contribute to a temporary slowing down of Arctic sea ice melting, but given the speed at which the ocean heat keeps rising, such a slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and huge melting of sea ice threatens to return with a vengeance, i.e. abruptly, as sea surface temperatures keep rising in line with the 2026 El Niño. 

Sea surface temperatures were at a record high in August 2026, as illustrated by the above image. 


Temperatures of the sea surface are very high, as much as 13°C or 23.3°F higher than 1981-2011 on September 4, 2026, in the Gulf of Ob (green circle on the above image). The image also shows that the cold area that was previously visible south of Greenland got overwhelmed by the huge rise in ocean heat, as the 2026/2027 El Niño keeps gaining in strength and as Earth's Energy Imbalance keeps increasing, as illustrated by the image below, by Leon Simons. 


The absorbed incoming solar radiation (the black line in the above image, but orange in the image below) is increasing rapidly, due to albedo loss, while outgoing longwave radiation (the red line in the above image, but black in the image below) is decreasing proportionally, due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Further gases, aerosols and feedbacks can make things worse. The result is an increasingly larger amount of extra energy stored on Earth, referred to as Earth's Energy Imbalance. The image below, from an earlier post, depicts Earth energy imbalance (red in the image below) and shows where the extra energy is going (in percentages).


According to the IPCC AR6 WG1, 91% of the extra energy is taken up by oceans, 5% by land, 3% by ice melting and 1% remains in the atmosphere. Oceans, land and ice melting thus act as a buffer that did take up the vast majority (99%) of the extra energy, based on IPCC data.

More ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean subsequently threatens to cause abrupt destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.

Pingos and conduits. Hovland et al. (2006)
Warm water can cause melting of the ice that is held in cracks and passages in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, allowing methane contained in the sediment to escape.

The image on the right, from a study by Hovland et al., featured in an earlier post. Hydrates can be present at the end of conduits leading to Pingos that were formed in the sediment where methane did escape from hydrates in the past. Heat can travel down such conduits relatively fast, warming up the ice in the Pingos and conduits, destabilizing hydrates and resulting in huge abrupt releases of methane from the hydrates, as well as from methane held in the form of free gas underneath such hydrates.

The huge amount of ocean heat present in the Pacific Ocean at the Equator is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, with subsurface temperature anomalies of +10.0°C at 100 m depth. 


In the Atlantic Ocean, slowing down of AMOC can cause less warm water to flow at the sea surface of the North Atlantic into the Arctic ocean. However, the rising ocean heat is not disappearing, but more heat is instead accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean. The danger is that, as more heat rises to the surface, a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of the accumulated ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, a freshwater lid is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, facilitating warm, salty water to be carried underneath this freshwater lid into the Arctic Ocean.


The above combination image shows the situation on September 3, 2026, with Arctic sea ice concentration in the panel on the left, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the panel on the right, with a 0.6°C higher temperature than 1981-2011 highlighted at the green circle near the North Pole. 


The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on September 7, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and on September 6, 2026, by NSIDC (right), with the orange line indicating the median ice edge 1981-2010. 


The sea surface temperature anomaly (60°S-60°N) was +0.69°C compared to 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from Copernicus. The map (inset, top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 7, 2026.


The August 2026 temperature anomaly above 1951-1980 was close to the peak reached in September 2023, as illustrated by the above image. There is much scope for the temperature to rise further, since El Niño is expected to reach its peak in December 2026. 

Teleconnections: High temperatures in Tropics contributing to Antarctic sea ice decline

The image below shows ECMWF sea surface temperature anomaly forecast plumes in three El Niño regions dated September 1, 2026.


The above forecasts indicate that El Niño will reach peak strength in December 2026, when sea surface anomalies in the Niño3.4 region are expected to exceed 4°C above 1991-2020. The image below shows the significance of exceeding 4°C above 1951-1980 compared with earlier El Niños. 


The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 6, 2026, when the temperature was 29.62°C or 85.32°F, an anomaly of 2.96°C or 5.33°F versus 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.87°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 6, 2026 with the Nino3.4 region highlighted in the Pacific Ocean.


The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the Tropics through September 1, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.23°C or 79.21°F, an anomaly of 1.3°C or 2.34°F versus 1979-2000. The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 1, 2026 with the Tropics highlighted.


Sea surface temperatures are high and this contributes to Antarctic sea ice decline. Additionally, there is another mechanism contributing to the decline of Antarctic sea ice. At this time of year, the temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and over East Antarctica, so temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole can be very large. As a result, there can be strong wind patterns driving warm, moist air in the form of atmospheric rivers toward Antarctica, on the way taking up more moisture evaporating from the Southern Ocean. This can cause snow to fall over parts of Antarctica, thickening the snow and ice cover on Antarctica, while increasing the salt content of the Southern Ocean surface. Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows the August 2026 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.


The image below shows Antarctic sea ice concentration on September 5, 2026, by the University of Bremen (left) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (right). Low concentration of the sea ice and of the snow and ice cover on land lowers albedo, resulting in more sunlight getting absorbed by Antarctica and by the sea ice around Antarctica. 


On September 5, 2026, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.27 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.39σ, as illustrated by the image below. The year 2026 is highlighted in black, the year 2023 is highlighted in blue and the years 2016, 2024 and 2025 are highlighted in purple.


Both 2016 and 2023 were strong El Niño years and the 2026 El Niño is on track to become even stronger. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its annual minimum in February, but this time most sea ice may be gone earlier, as the 2026 El Niño is on track to increase in strength in the course of 2026 and become the strongest El Niño on record, which could devastate the sea ice over the coming months. 

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NASA - Worldview 
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NOAA - El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion - 13 August 2026



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Monday, December 1, 2025

The next El Nino

Arctic sea ice 

Arctic sea ice volume is at a record daily low. It has been at a record daily low for well over a year. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through December 13, 2025. 


The image below shows that the November 2025 Arctic sea ice volume was the lowest on record for the month of November. 
The image below, adapted from an Eliot Jacobson image, shows the annual minima of Arctic sea ice thickness through 2025.


The image below shows that the Arctic sea ice extent was at a record daily low on December 12, 2025. 


Loss of sea ice extent means that less sunlight gets reflected back into space and instead gets absorbed by the sea surface, resulting in higher temperatures, in a self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image on the right shows Arctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 13, 2025.

Furthermore, loss of Arctic sea ice volume can contribute to a huge rise in temperature as a result of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. As Arctic sea ice shrinks in volume, its capacity shrinks to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean. As the buffer disappears, the temperature of the water can rise strongly and abruptly, causing heat to penetrate sediments that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas underneath hydrates. Heat penetrating such sediments can destabilize such hydrates, resulting in huge eruptions of methane. 

Such an event could be triggered by wild weather swings resulting from higher temperatures that come with the next El Niño that is likely to emerge and strengthen in the course of the year 2026. 

Global sea ice

The image below shows that the global sea ice extent was 3.2 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on December 15, 2025, the second lowest on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.9σ.

Antarctic sea ice

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies from January 1979 through December 12, 2025. Satellite data are from NSIDC, DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS and JAXA AMSR2. Anomalies are calculated using a 5-day running mean from a 1981-2010 base. 


   [ Saltier water, less sea ice. From earlier post. ]
The above image shows that the Antarctic sea ice extent anomaly remained relatively stable for many years, but gradually increased during the period from 2007 to 2015. 

This increase can be attributed to rising temperatures from 2007 resulting in stronger wind spreading the sea ice and stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean coming with increased snowfall on top of the sea ice accompanied by increased meltwater, which initially lowered salinity of the sea surface, enabling sea ice to spread wide. 

Meanwhile, stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean also increased snowfall over Antarctica, where a significant part of the snow has remained on top of the snow cover.

Eventually, in 2015, this and rising temperatures started to overwhelm the earlier impact and increasingly stronger evaporation of water from the Southern Ocean started to contribute to make the sea surface more salty, resulting in more rapid melting of the sea ice. 

This is illustrated by the forecast for December 28, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline) on the right. 
It is further illustrated by the image on the right that shows a forecast for December 29, 2025, of the precipitable water standardized anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

The image below shows a forecast for December 28, 2025, of the global precipitablewater anomaly (1979-2000 baseline). 

This is a self-amplifying feedback, in that saltier water at the ocean surface also draws up more heat from the deep ocean, making it harder for sea ice to regrow. Increasing amounts of heat and CO₂ that were previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, threaten to instead remain at the surface and cause both atmospheric temperatures and CO₂ concentrations to rise. 

Many of these feedbacks such as changes in salinity and stratification have been discussed in earlier post such as this one.


The increase in snowfall on Antarctica is also illustrated by the image below that shows the accumulated precipitation anomaly (in percentage, versus 1951-1980) for the 12-month period from December 2024 through November 2025 (ECMWF ERA5 Data, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.org. 


A study led by Alessandro Silvano (2025) shows that, over the years, the Southern Ocean surface has become more hot and salty.

The combined impact of these feedbacks can accumulate and strike rapidly. Feedbacks include the impact of sea ice decline (latent heat buffer loss + albedo loss), of the water vapor feedback, of increased stratification and salinity of the sea surface of the Southern Ocean, of heat entering the atmosphere from the ocean and of less heat getting transferred from the air to the depths of the ocean, and - as temperature rise - of triggering additional feedbacks such as loss of lower clouds and thus additionally causing more heat to be absorbed by the surface as less sunlight is getting reflected back into space.

[ from earlier post ]
Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in air temperature. Heat already stored in the deeper layers of the ocean could also rise up and commit Earth to further additional surface warming in the future.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise narrows the temperature difference between the Equator and the poles, resulting in a relative slowdown in speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles.

This slowdown impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream.

As illustrated by the combination image below, surface temperatures of the sea around Antarctica off the coast of Wilkes Land were as high as 1.9°C or 35.4°F on December 16, 2025 (at the green circle, globe right), an anomaly of 3.1°C or 5.5°F (at the circle, globe left). 


Sea ice cannot survive such high temperatures for long. The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Sea ice starts melting as soon as the temperature rises to -1.8°C (28.76°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature stays below 0°C (32°F). In very salty water, sea ice will start melting at sea surface temperatures of -2°C (28.4°F). Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). 

As illustrated by the image below, the air temperature was -1.2°C or 29.8°F off the coast of Wilkes Land, Antarctica (green circle), on December 14, 2025 (03:00 UTC).


Both sea ice extent and concentration are currently low at both poles, contributing to high temperatures, since less sunlight gets reflected back into space and is instead absorbed by the surface. This spells bad news for Antarctic sea ice, which is expected to reach its minimum in February 2026.

The image on the right shows Antarctic snow cover and sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, adapted from ClimateReanalyzer.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event (sea ice approaching a low of one million km²) threatens to occur in February 2026, with the danger that this will in turn trigger an Arctic Blue Ocean Event later in 2026.

The combination image below shows the Antarctic sea ice concentration on December 14, 2025, by the University of Bremen (left) and by NSIDC (right). The NSIDC image also shows the median Antarctic sea ice edge 1981-2010 highlighted in orange. 

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness on December 15, 2025. 

The next El Niño

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows a NOAA update of Niño-3.4 region temperature anomalies and forecasts. NOAA considers La Niña conditions to occur when a one-month negative sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5° C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W). Also, there must be an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met, and an atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months. 

The image on the right, adapted from NOAA, shows ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) probabilities, with El Niño (red bar) emerging in the course of 2026. 

The image below, adapted from ECMWF, shows the ENSO anomalies and forecasts for developments through November 2026 in Niño3.4 (left panel) and in Niño1+2 (right panel), indicating that the next El Niño will emerge and strengthen in the course of 2026.


Moving from the depth of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño in itself can make a difference in the global temperature of more than 0.5°C, as discussed in an earlier post.

Methane

The methane danger is illustrated by the image below that shows hourly average in situ methane measurements well above 2400 ppb (parts per billion). The image is adapted from an image issued by NOAA December 13, 2025. The image shows methane recorded over the past few years at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North latitude.



The methane danger is discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Seafloor methane and methane from thawing terrestrial permafrost can add significantly and abruptly to the temperature rise.  

Temperature rise

The image below shows the November 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, based on ERA5 data. 


The Land-Only temperature anomaly versus 1880-1920 through November 2025 shows 1.5°C crossed for most months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2023 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2030 if this trend continues (dashed extension).


Sure, the 1880-1920 base used in above image is not pre-industrial. An even more scary picture emerges when calculating the NASA Land Only temperature anomalies with respect to 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through November 2025, as done in the image below, which shows the 1.5°C threshold crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares). The Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold was crossed in 2022 and that 3°C may get crossed in 2028 if this trend continues (dashed extension). 



Notes:
• Land-only? Using land-only anomalies is important, since most people do live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. When calculating the anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere on land only, the anomaly will be even higher. The two images below show a 0.5°C difference between the global anomaly and the anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere for the November 2025 anomaly.
• 1880-1890 base? The 1880-1890 base is not pre-industrial, yet it is more illustrative than NASA's default 1951-1980; when using a genuinely pre-industrial base, temperature anomalies are likely to be even higher (see also the boxes on the image below). 
• Red dashed line stops in 2028? The red dashed line stops in 2028 as it points at 3°C (top dotted line) crossed in 2028, which is an important threshold as humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as discussed in an earlier post.  
• Lowess trend? The Lowess trend is used by NASA by default. The dashed red line is a linear extension of the Lowess trend and points at 3°C threshold crossed in 2028, but a non-linear trend and its extension may point at an even earlier year (see also this comment).  
• NASA image? The background image is a screenshot of an image custom-made at data.giss.nasa.gov by Sam Carana; the blue textbox and the dashed and dotted lines are added for clarity.
• Timeline from 2022 to 2030? The timeline starts at 2022 as the image shows the 1.5°C threshold (bottom dotted line) to be crossed for all months since 2022 (black squares) and the Lowess 3-year smoothing trend (red line) indicates that the 2°C threshold (middle dotted line) was crossed in 2022. The timeline stops at 2030, as many politicians plan for emissions by people to continue to 2030 (and beyond), even though there may be no humans left by then, as the image illustrates. 
• La Niña/El Niño? While the 2025 anomalies were reached in the absence of El Niño conditions elevating temperatures, the next El Niño may emerge in the course of 2026 (see above).

The November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980. The anomaly would be significantly higher when calculated from 1850-1900 (the period typically used by the IPCC as base), and even higher when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

[ update of image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The Northern Hemisphere November 2025 temperature anomaly was 1.82°C higher than 1951-1980, and 0.5°C higher than the global anomaly, as illustrated by the image below.  

The above images also include boxes with a diagram and associated text from an earlier post, with more details regarding the size of the historic temperature rise and of the rise to come soon. 

Clearly, the Northern Hemisphere Land Only temperature anomaly is a lot higher than the global temperature anomaly, which is important since most people live on land in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

UN secretary-general António Guterres recently spoke about the need for “a credible global response plan to get us on track” regarding the international goal of limiting the global temperature rise. “The science demands action, the law commands it,” Guterres said, in reference to a recent international court of justice ruling. “The economics compel it and people are calling for it.”

The image below illustrates the schism between the Climate Plan and the Status Quo. 


What could be added is that the situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as this 2022 post and this one and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.


Links

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume

• ClimateReanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net

• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Prediction

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) 

• ECMWF

• Zach Labe - Antarctic sea ice extent and concentration 

• Saltier water, less sea ice

• The danger of abrupt eruptions of seafloor methane

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Data Visualisation - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• NASA - GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - custom plots
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html






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