Showing posts with label thickness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thickness. Show all posts

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Arctic sea ice May 2025

[ Arctic sea ice thickness, click on images to enlarge ]
The above combination image shows Arctic sea ice thickness on March 13, 2025 (left), April 28, 2025 (center) and May 13, 2025 (right). The image on the right shows more open water off the coast of Siberia.


[ Arctic sea ice concentration ]
The above image is a screenshot of part of a NASA Worldview satellite image for May 1, 2025. The image similarly shows open water off the coast of Siberia. The red dots indicate fires. 

The image on the right, adapted from NSIDC, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on May 13, 2025. 

Arctic sea ice is under threat as numerous conditions are becoming increasingly dire, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. 

For some of these conditions, further updates are added below (carbon dioxide, temperature, variables and Arctic sea ice). 

Carbon dioxide

A daily carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration of 431.25 parts per million (ppm) was recorded on May 10, 2025, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the highest daily average on record. 
CO₂ concentrations haven't been below 430 ppm for 14 days in a row at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the above image, which shows CO₂ for the last 31 days through May 10, 2025. The image below gives another view of daily concentrations. 

One has to go back millions of years in time to find CO₂ concentrations this high, while the impact of high CO₂ concentrations back in history was lower due to lower solar output and the rate of change was also much slower, as also discussed in an earlier post.

The image below illustrates that the weekly mean CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 430.60 ppm in the week beginning on April 27, 2025, i.e. 4.02 ppm higher than the weekly value from one year ago (green inset).
Weekly CO₂ for the week starting May 4, 2025, was 430.86 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, compared to 426.92 ppm one year ago, a difference of 3.94 ppm, as illustrated by the image below.


The annual global average surface concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for 2024 was 422.79 parts per million (ppm). CO₂ concentrations grew by 3.75 ppm during 2024, the highest growth rate on record, as discussed in an earlier post.

Temperature 

The global surface air temperature was 15.72°C on 9 May 2025, the highest temperature on record for this day, as illustrated by the image below. 

The global surface air temperature was 15.75°C on 10 May 2025, again the highest temperature on record for this day. The image below shows ERA5 daily temperature anomalies from end 2022 through May 10, 2025, with two trends added, a black linear trend and a red cubic (non-linear) trend that reflects stronger feedbacks and that follows ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) conditions more closely. This red trend warns about further acceleration of the temperature rise.


The shading added in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions that push up temperatures (pink shading), La Niña conditions that suppress temperatures (blue shading), or neutral conditions (gray shading). The trends warn about feedbacks and further mechanisms pushing up temperatures over the next few years.

The above image shows two bases to compare the anomalies with, 1991-2000 (left axis) and 1901-1930 (right axis). Neither of these two bases is pre-industrial, anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. 

The image below shows NASA monthly data through April 2025 compared to a custom 1903-1924. This 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial either, anomalies will be higher when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. The monthly temperature anomaly has now been more than 1.5°C higher than this 1903-1924 base for 22 consecutive months (July 2023 through April 2025, marked with red text). Anomalies are rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at 2°C higher than 1903-1924 getting crossed in the course of 2027.

[ more than 1.5°C above base for 22 consecutive months, trend points at 2°C above 1903-1924 crossed in 2027 ]
The picture can change when using a different base that anomalies are compared with. To illustrate this, the image below uses the decade from 1904 through 1913 as a custom base, resulting in higher anomalies and a trend pointing at 2°C above this base (1904-1913) getting crossed in the course of 2026.
[ trend points at 2°C above 1904-1913 getting crossed in 2026 ]
An earlier analysis of pre-industrial suggests that using 1750 as a base could add as much as 0.3°C to the historic rise, while using a 3480 BC base could add as much as 0.79°C to the historic rise. 

Those who seek to sabotage climate action typically call for use of a base that minimizes the historic temperature rise. A higher historic rise can imply that temperatures are already higher than the thresholds that politicians at the adoption of the Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed, and it can also imply that the temperature rise is accelerating more due to stronger feedbacks such as more water vapor in the atmosphere and disappearance of lower clouds, so that would constitute a stronger call for climate action. 

The Arctic is hit hardest by the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below, which shows temperature anomalies compared to 1951-1981 for the period from November 2024 through April 2025. 


The image below illustrates that the global temperature was at a record high for the time of year for five days in a row, i.e. from April 24, 2025, through April 28, 2025.

Variables

Some variables have a short-term impact on the temperature rise, including volcanoes, sudden stratospheric warming, sunspots and El Niño/La Niña variations. There have been no volcano eruptions and no sudden stratospheric warming events recently that could have provided significant cooling. Sunspots are at a high point in this cycle, which pushes up temperatures. Regarding ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), current conditions are ENSO-neutral, highlighting the significance of the high current temperatures, while a new El Niño may emerge soon. The image below shows NOAA's ENSO outlook dated May 11, 2025.


The image below shows temperatures through May 9, 2025, in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific (inset) that is critical to the development of El Niño.

[ temperature in Niño 3.4 area ]

Mechanisms such as self-amplifying feedbacks and crossing of tipping points, and further developments such as loss of the aerosol masking effect, can jointly contribute to further accelerate the temperature rise, resulting in a rise from pre-industrial of more than 10°C, while in the process also causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed and that can push the temperature rise up by a further 8°C, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice volume and area

Loss in sea ice can dramatically push up temperatures, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. High ocean temperatures are causing Arctic sea ice volume to be very low compared to earlier years. The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume over the years in red for April, the month when Arctic sea ice typically reaches its maximum volume for the respective year. 

The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume from 2000, with markers indicating volume in September (red) and in April (blue), corresponding to the year's minimum- and maximum volume. 
The image below shows Arctic sea ice volume through May 14, 2025.
The image below illustrates that Arctic sea ice disappears not only as it melts away from below, due to heating up of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice can also disappear as it gets broken up by ocean currents and moves out of the Arctic Ocean. The image shows how, on May 6, 2025, the sea ice gets broken up just north of the northern tip of Greenland, due to ocean currents that will also move the pieces to the south, alongside the edges of Greenland, toward the North Atlantic. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
On May 13, 2025, Arctic sea ice area was second lowest on record for that day, as illustrated by the image below. 
The comparison with the year 2012 is important, since Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest minimum in 2012. Arctic sea ice area was only 2.24 million km² on September 12, 2012, i.e. 1.24 million km² above a Blue Ocean Event. While on May 13, 2025, Arctic sea ice area was only 0.8 million km² lower than on May 8, 2012, the difference between anomalies typically gets narrower in May. Therefore, if the difference between 2025 and 2012 will widen again, a Blue Ocean Event may occur in September 2025, as discussed in an earlier post. 

Methane

Loss of Arctic sea ice can also trigger a very dangerous feedback: eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. Methane in the atmosphere is already very high and large additional methane releases threaten to cause hydroxyl depletion, in turn extending the lifetime of all methane currently in the atmosphere. 

Data for the annual increase in methane have been updated by NOAA. in 2024, there was a higher increase than in 2023, the 2024 increase was almost 10 parts per billion (ppb).   

The image below shows the annual methane increase data (red circles), with two trends added. A quadratic trend (blue) is based on all available data (1894 through 2024), while a quintic trend (pink) is based on 2017 through 2024 data. The pink trend warns about a huge increase in methane, which could eventuate due to eruptions of seafloor methane.

Below are warnings from earlier posts. 
[ from earlier post, also note the recent discussion on monthly methane ]
[ from earlier post ]
Also noteworthy is this analysis by Andrew Glikson and work by Peter Wadhams et al. 

In the video below, methane emissions are discussed by Peter Wadhams, Paul Beckwith, Peter Carter and Herb Simmens
 

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have been around 1960 parts per billion (ppb) recently at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, as illustrated by the image below. 

Methane is more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Methane also has indirect effects, such as ground-level ozone and stratospheric water vapor, while methane partly turns into carbon dioxide. Importantly, the warming potential of a pulse of methane will decrease over time, given methane's relatively short lifetime. 

Accordingly, there are different ways to calculate methane's carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). Also important is whether a specific concentration of methane is used (in ppb) or the weight is used of a pulse of methane. In each of these cases, different multipliers can be used to calculate methane's CO₂e.

When using a multiplier of 200, a methane concentration of 1960 ppb would translate into 392 ppm of CO₂e. As mentioned above, a daily CO₂ concentration of 431.25 ppm was recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on May 10, 2025. So, when adding up these two, the joint CO₂e would be 823.25 ppm CO₂e, i.e. just 376.75 ppm short of the clouds tipping point (at 1200 ppm). This joint total doesn't yet include contributions of nitrous oxide and other drivers, so the situation is even more dire. Moreover, concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing and they may increase even more dramatically soon.

So, what multiplier is best used when calculating methane's CO₂e? The IPCC already uses a slightly higher GWP for methane emissions from fossil fuel fugitive emission sources than for other methane emissions. So, the idea of using different multipliers in different scenarios is not new. 

One multiplier could be used that does include cooling aerosols and another one that doesn't. Most carbon dioxide results from burning coal and oil, which comes not only with high CO₂ emissions, but also with co-emissions of cooling aerosols. On the other hand, there are little or no cooling aerosols co-emitted with methane emissions. Therefore, inclusion of cooling aerosols could result in a higher multiplier to be used when translating concentrations of methane into CO₂e, compared to carbon dioxide.

[ warming contributions, from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

[ warming responsibility by sector ]
To illustrate this point, the above image shows contributions to warming from 2010 to 2019, using IPCC AR6 data. If masking (cooling) would be included in the image by subtracting cooling by sulfates from CO₂, then the contribution of CO₂ would be proportionally lower, while the contribution of methane would be proportionally higher than what the image shows. 

The image on the right is from a recent analysis by Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop.    

Given the dire outlook and given methane's higher potency as a greenhouse gas, it makes most sense to seek urgent and dramatic reductions in methane and such action should not be allowed to be sabotaged by those who propose a low multiplier when calculating methane's CO₂e.

IPCC

Meanwhile, the IPCC remains silent. No updates or special reports on topics such as acceleration of the temperature rise. Instead, the IPCC keeps persisting in downplaying the potential for such dangerous developments (in terms of the severity, probability, ubiquity and imminence of their impact), in efforts to hide the most effective climate action. The IPCC keeps pointing at less effective policies such as support for BECCS and biofuel, while continuing to make it look as if there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, as if polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as also discussed at this group.



Links

• University of Bremen - sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center - Sea Ice Today
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• NOAA - Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

• NOAA - Weekly Average Mauna Loa CO2

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Record high increase in carbon dioxide
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/04/record-high-increase-in-carbon-dioxide.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - 5 May 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - trends in methane
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4

• The methane time bomb - by Andrew Glikson (2018)

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• Increased transparency in accounting conventions could benefit climate policy - by Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop   











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Monday, May 13, 2024

Temperature rise may soon accelerate even more


The April 2024 temperature was 1.32°C higher than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. Local anomalies are as high as 6.2°C.


The April 2024 temperature was 1.62°C higher than 1900-1930, as illustrated by the above image, created with NASA content. The red line highlights acceleration of the temperature rise (Lowess Smoothing). 

The image below, created with NOAA content, uses a LOESS filter (green line) to highlight the recent acceleration in the temperature rise of the ocean. In this case, the temperature anomaly is calculated versus a 1901-2000 base. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The temperature anomaly is even higher when calculated from a pre-industrial base. The image below, created with NASA content, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, and potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). 

[ from earlier post ]

The image below, created with NASA content, shows Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies versus a 1900-1923 custom base, further adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperatures, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. 

[ from earlier post ]
The above image shows a magenta trend that points at the temperature crossing 3°C above pre-industrial later this year (2024). What could be behind such a steep rise? 

Have Feedbacks taken over? 

In April 2024, El Niño conditions were still dominant. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high recently. The correlation between El Niño and temperature anomalies (from 1901-2000) is illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA content, El Niño conditions are no longer dominant. Instead, neutral conditions now prevail and La Niña conditions may develop as early as June-August 2024 (49% chance) or one month later, i.e. July-September (69% chance). 


The extremely high recent temperatures and the trends depicted in the images further above raise the question as to what the underlying driver is, given that we're no longer in an El Niño. Indeed, the question is whether feedbacks have taken over as the main driver causing the temperature rise to further accelerate. 

As mentioned above, the February 2024 temperature could be as much as 2.75°C higher than pre-industrial. The extinction page points out that a 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere. This increase in water vapor in the atmosphere is a self-reinforcing feedback loop, since water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, further accelerating the temperature rise.

There is no single feedback that could cause the recent steep rise of temperatures and its acceleration, instead there are numerous non-linear, self-amplifying feedback loops that can all contribute, interact and start to kick in with greater ferocity, amplifying and further accelerating the rise. 

Such feedbacks do include more water vapor, as said, as well as stronger wind, waves and storms, more ocean stratification, faster loss of sea ice, faster loss of reflectivity of clouds and more freshwater accumulating at the surface of oceans, due to stronger ice melting, due to heavier runoff from land and rivers and due to changes in wind patterns and ocean currents and circulation.

Furthermore, developments such as rising emissions from industry, transport, land use, forest fires and waste fires, ocean acidification and reductions in sulfur emissions over the past few years all contribute to further acceleration of the temperature rise. 

Two tipping points threaten to get crossed

For about one year now, global temperature anomalies have been extremely high, as illustrated by the image below, created with a screenshot from Copernicus, showing an anomaly from 1991-2020 of 0.84°C on May 31, 2024. 


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1991-2020 on May 31, 2024. 


The temperature rise is hitting the Arctic harder than elsewhere, as illustrated by the images at the top and below, created with NASA content. 


Contributing to these high temperatures in the Arctic are high temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean, which are now rising rapidly, in line with seasonal changes, as illustrated by the image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer content. 


The above image shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 22.4°C on May 31, 2024, higher than the temperature in 2023 for this time of year. High North Atlantic sea surface temperatures spell bad news for the Arctic, as much ocean heat gets pushed toward the Arctic from the North Atlantic, due to prevailing winds and ocean circulation.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are now rising strongly, in line with seasonal changes. Ominously, a peak of 25.4°C was reached in August 2023. The question is how high the North Atlantic temperature will be in 2024 at that time of year. 

The image below shows North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1982-2011. Data shown are from September 1, 1981, through May 31, 2024.


As discussed, one reason for the high temperatures of the North Atlantic is that sulfur emissions have been reduced over the years. Furthermore, there are many feedbacks. Importantly, there is potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, as also illustrated by the image below. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image highlights mechanisms with the potential to contribute to further heating up of the Arctic Ocean resulting in more methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Oceans, including storms and changes to the Jet Stream, as discussed before. e.g. in this post. 

One tipping point that threatens to get crossed is loss of Arctic sea ice. Loss of Arctic sea ice comes with albedo change, which constitutes a huge self-reinforcing feedback loop, i.e. the more sea ice disappears, the more sunlight gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, further accelerating sea ice melting, while less sunlight gets reflected back into space.

[ Albedo change, from the Albedo page ]

Next to the albedo loss, there is loss of the latent heat buffer constituted by the sea ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, in this case the energy consumed as solid ice turns into liquid water (i.e. melts). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at about zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface.

As long as air temperatures over the Arctic are below freezing, sea ice can persist at the surface, maintaining sea ice extent, which may give the false impression that sea ice was healthy, whereas in fact sea ice has steadily been declining in thickness.

Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, and as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.  


The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Loss of sea ice thickness implies loss of the latent heat buffer and constitutes a tipping point, i.e. once crossed, the Arctic Ocean will heat up at accelerating pace. 


The above map, created with Danish Meteorological Institute content, shows that much of the thicker sea ice is located away from the North Pole, such as off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice is likely to melt away quickly as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere and temperatures rise in line with seasonal changes.

Seafloor methane constitutes a second tipping point. When methane escapes from hydrates that get destabilized by rising temperatures, the methane will expand to 160 times its previous volume and enter the atmosphere with force. Without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat could cause large-scale destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

[ from earlier post ]
[ image from the Extinction page ]
On the above image, estimates for these two tipping points are added to Northern Hemisphere Ocean Temperature anomalies vs 1901-2000, created with NOAA data. Furthermore, two trends are added. The magenta trend is based on January 1880-January 2024 data and warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2025. The red trend, which is based on January 2010-January 2024 data and better reflects variables such as El Niño, warns that the Seafloor Methane Tipping Point may be crossed in 2024.

Crossing of the latent heat tipping point and the seafloor methane tipping point results in ever more heat reaching and accumulating in the Arctic ocean, destabilizing methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.

Self-amplifying feedbacks and developments as discussed above, as well as crossing of these two tipping points, could all contribute to cause a temperature rise of over 10°C, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed that can push up the temperature rise by a further 8°C.

Altogether, the temperature rise may exceed 18°C from pre-industrial by as early as 2026, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at the Climate Emergency group.



Links

• NASA - datasets and images
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - National Centers for Environment Information
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center / National Centers for Environmental Prediction
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Moistening Atmosphere

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions 
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Arctic sea ice set for steep decline
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

• Arctic sea ice under threat

• Blue Ocean Event 2024?

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html



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Friday, April 12, 2024

North Atlantic heating up

Sea surface temperature at record high

The image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer screenshots, shows that the sea surface temperature (SST 60°S - 60°N mean) was 21.2°C on April 24, 2024, reaching yet another record high.

These record high sea surface temperatures are reached as long-term sea surface temperatures are falling and as El Niño is predicted to weaken, which is fueling fears that feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity. 

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000, with the green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) giving a warning that higher temperature anomalies could be coming up. 

The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows March 2024 sea surface temperature anomalies from 1991-2020. High anomalies show up, especially around the Equator which can be expected given that the amount of sunlight there is highest at this time of year. 


Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa reaches new record high

The daily average carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 428.42 ppm on April 24, 2024. To find carbon dioxide levels this high, one needs to go back millions of years.  


The above image shows hourly (red) and daily (yellow) carbon dioxide averages at Mauna Loa for the last 31 days. 


This carbon dioxide level of 428.42 ppm reached on April 24, 2024, is 4.45 ppm higher than the level on April 24, 2023, as the above image shows.

North Atlantic heating up

The North Atlantic Ocean is now heating up rapidly, as more sunlight is starting to reach the Northern Hemisphere. The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperatures up to April 23, 2024. The image shows that 2024 temperatures have been significantly higher than 2023 temperatures for the same dates. The annual maximum temperature in 2023 was reached on August 31. Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically over the next few months, in line with the change in seasons. 

Much will depend on the strength of the current El Niño over the next few months and El Niño is predicted to weaken, but as said there are fears that feedbacks are kicking in with accelerating ferocity. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 through March 2024, colored by El Niño/La Niña conditions. 


NOAA warns that there is a bit of a delay in the effects of any given ENSO phase. So, the first part of this year will still be influenced by El Niño, which is in part why NOAA predicts a 55% chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023.

Further factors (other than El Niño) may continue to accelerate the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. One danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice getting very thin

The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.

Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface.

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.


The image below warns that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin. 

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.


Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA - Ocean temperature anomalies
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series/globe/ocean/1/0/2015-2024?filter=true&filterType=loess

• Copernicus sea surface temperature anomalies
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202403/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - ENSO update 
https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/posts/821505663344434
also discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161353804294679

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html






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