Forecast of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F in south of Texas, U.S.
A temperature of 39°C or 102°F is forecast for a location in the south of Texas, U.S., for June 18, 2026 20 UTC. With a relative humidity of 51%, this translates into a 'feels like' temperature of 52°C or 125°F and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F.
Furthermore, as illustrated by the image below, a temperature of 41°C or 105°F is forecast for another location in the south of Texas, U.S., for June 18, 2026 20 UTC. With a relative humidity of 44%, this translates into a 'feels like' temperature of 52°C or 126°F and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 35°C or 96°F.
According to NOAA, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is an indicator of heat related stress on the human body at work (or play) in direct sunlight. It takes into account multiple atmospheric variables, including: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and cloud cover.
By contrast, the wet bulb temperature measures the lowest temperature to which an object can cool down through the evaporation of water, primarily accounting for heat and humidity in the shade.
By contrast, the wet bulb temperature measures the lowest temperature to which an object can cool down through the evaporation of water, primarily accounting for heat and humidity in the shade.
The human body can cool itself by sweating and the stronger the wind, the more one can cool off by sweating. As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a threshold can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. This physiological limit was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. i.e. once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead the human body will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.
Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equivalent to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure. Many assumed that reaching such a limit would require a large increase in temperature, but a 2020 study (led by Raymond) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial).
Furthermore, a 2022 study (led by Vecellio) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.
Forecast of extreme heat danger in Washington and Baltimore region
Below is a forecast for July 2, 2026, of extreme heat danger in the Washington and Baltimore region, where a wet bulb globe temperature of 35°C is forecast for a location in Annapolis, 31 miles South-Southeast of Baltimore, Maryland.
The image illustrates that the wet bulb temperature threshold can increasingly be reached or even crossed in a large part of the United States.
High temperature forecasts
The image below shows that a temperature of 117°F (47.22°C) is forecast for a location in California on July 9, 2026.
High temperatures are forecast to hit not only California and Texas, but also many other areas in the United States. The combination image below shows a forecast for July 27, 2026 1 EDT or 21:00 UTC, with a temperature of 117°F (47.22°C) marked for a location in Oklahoma in the panel on the left. The forecast is confirmed by the 7-10 days maximum temperature forecast in the panel on the right.
The image below shows that a temperature of 113°F (45°C) is forecast to hit a location in Montana on July 12, 2026.
The image below is a HRRR forecast showing similar conditions hitting Montana on July 12, 2026, with temperatures marked to be as high as 113°F (45°C).
The image below shows maximum temperature (left) and temperature anomaly (right) on July 12, 2026.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
Seven mechanisms heating up the Arctic Ocean
There are at least seven mechanisms behind the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
1. Ocean heat
Firstly, warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.6°C (or 90.68°F) around North America on July 14, 2026. The image also illustrates that geographic conditions facilitate the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.
1. Ocean heat
Firstly, warm water is pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the North Atlantic through the Fram Strait into the Arctic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the North Pacific through the Bering Strait into the Arctic Ocean. This is illustrated by the image below that shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.6°C (or 90.68°F) around North America on July 14, 2026. The image also illustrates that geographic conditions facilitate the Gulf Stream to push ocean heat north in the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic.
2. Insolation
3. Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents
While wind strengthens as temperatures rise, polar amplification of global warming is narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the Poles, and this can slow down and distort wind patterns such as the Jet Stream and ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Meriodinal Ocean Circulation (SMOC). Changes to wind patterns and ocean currents constitute a third mechanism that can at times dramatically increase the polar temperature.
4. Albedo change
Albedo change constitutes a fourth mechanism. Decline of the snow and ice cover is causing more sunlight to get absorbed by the surface, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case. Many aerosols such as soot (from burning fuel in the Northern Hemisphere) and dust are reaching the Arctic and are settling down on the snow and ice cover, thus contributing to albedo change. Decline of the snow and ice cover and higher temperatures also result in stronger growth of plants and algae, further speeding up the temperature rise due to albedo changes.
5. Water from land
A fifth mechanism is warm water from land entering the Arctic Ocean. As coasts around the Arctic Ocean heat up, this will also heat up run-off from land and water from rivers that enter the Arctic Ocean.
This is illustrated by the image on the right that shows sea surface temperatures up to 18.1°C (or 64.58°F) in the Bering Strait on July 9, 2026.
The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies of 13.1°C (or 23.6°C) higher than 1981-2011 where water of the river Ob flows into the Arctic Ocean on July 11, 2026 (in the panel on the left), and 11.3°C (or 20.3°F) where run-off from Alaska enters the Arctic Ocean (in the panel on the right).
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
The image below shows that a temperature of 112°F (44.44°C) is forecast for a location in South Dakota on July 16, 2026, further illustrating that high temperatures can increasingly hit locations at high latitudes.
6. Disappearance of the buffer
The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a sixth mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
7. Further feedbacks and compound impacts
The seventh mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events. Abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.
The snow and ice cover act as a buffer that consumes heat as the ice melts and permafrost thaws. Disappearance of this buffer constitutes a sixth mechanism that can abruptly and dramatically increase the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.
7. Further feedbacks and compound impacts
The seventh mechanism includes feedbacks and compound impacts of feedbacks and of extreme weather events. Abrupt eruption of huge amounts of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as the temperature of the Arctic Ocean increases, has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. The image below, from the feedbacks page, illustrates the mechanism of multiple feedbacks amplifying each other and accelerating the heating up of the atmosphere and the water of the Arctic Ocean.
Compound impact of high temperatures, extreme weather events, fires, lightning and ozone
The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies of 9.3°C (or 16.8°F) reached on June 27, 2026, at the mouth of the Northern Dvina River in Russia and of 8.2°C (or 14.8°F) south of France in the Mediterranean Sea.
When there is strong wind, this can result in strong thunderstorms, storm damage and flooding.
Alternatively, other wind patterns can at times lead to stagnant high temperature combined with high humidity, and this combination can be hard to bear.
The image on the right shows a very high sea surface temperature anomaly of 16.2°C or 29.2°F (at the green circle) in Hudson Bay on July 14, 2026.
Furthermore, ground-level ozone (O₃) peaks during warm, sunny summer afternoons, as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor vehicles and industry react with sunlight and heat to form O₃. Lightning can contribute significantly to O₃. At the surface level, lightning can contribute to more than 40% of O₃ during intense thunderstorms. O₃ in the troposphere is a short-lived yet potent greenhouse gas and ground-level ozone also constitutes a health hazard for wildlife, livestock, people and vegetation, making forests more vulnerable to fires that can be ignited by lightning, as discussed on facebook in a recent comment.
Brown Carbon (BrC) is an organic carbon (OC) that absorbs light, instead of scattering or reflecting it, so while smoke and BrC may temporarily shade parts of the surface, BrC does contribute to atmospheric heating.
James Hansen once wrote the following (in 2007), mentioning a GWP of BC of ~2000 over 20 years:
"CO₂ is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO₂ emissions and reduce non-CO₂ forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO₂ forcings is methane (CH₄), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric O₃, which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment."
As discussed in an earlier post, methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean alone could suffice to abruptly cause a huge temperature rise. Additionally, compound impacts such as described above could abruptly drive up temperatures and strengthen feedbacks, causing industrial activity to collapse and sulfate cooling to end abruptly, in turn resulting in urban fires and in people resorting to burning biomass for heating, transport and cooking of food, further fuelling pollution. This combined impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed and cause a potential temperature rise of 18.44°C (from pre-industrial) in a matter of months, as discussed earlier at the extinction page.
The 2026 El Niño could trigger at least 10 tipping points to get crossed, as follows:
Conclusion
Links
• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov
• Climate Reanalyzer
The image on the right shows a very high sea surface temperature anomaly of 16.2°C or 29.2°F (at the green circle) in Hudson Bay on July 14, 2026.
Furthermore, ground-level ozone (O₃) peaks during warm, sunny summer afternoons, as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor vehicles and industry react with sunlight and heat to form O₃. Lightning can contribute significantly to O₃. At the surface level, lightning can contribute to more than 40% of O₃ during intense thunderstorms. O₃ in the troposphere is a short-lived yet potent greenhouse gas and ground-level ozone also constitutes a health hazard for wildlife, livestock, people and vegetation, making forests more vulnerable to fires that can be ignited by lightning, as discussed on facebook in a recent comment.
In the video below, Paul Beckwith discusses forest fires burning in Canada.
The compound impact of high temperatures, extreme weather events, fires, lightning and ozone was also discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄) and O₃ are linked in several ways. When CH₄ is broken down by hydroxyl (OH), ground-level O₃ is formed, which is both a potent greenhouse gas and a harmful pollutant. Depletion of OH extends methane's lifetime. CO is also broken down by OH in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NOx, i.e. NO + NO₂), as illustrated by the image below.
CO entering the atmosphere during forest fires depletes OH and this extends methane's lifetime. The image below, from Copernicus, shows a forecast for July 17, 2026, of the presence of CO and aerosols such as black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO₄⁻²) over North America during forest fires, when sulphur is volatilized into the atmosphere as gases like sulphur dioxide (SO₂).
The screenshot below warns about the compounding dangers of fires in peatlands in the Arctic.
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| [ screenshot from earlier post, adapted from a 2026 analysis by Meri Ruppel ] |
The temperature impact over a short horizon (say, a period of one year) of short-lived climate forcers such as CH₄, O₃, CO, BC and BrC can be enormous. The image below shows a striking difference in temperature impact over 10 years (top row) versus 100 years (bottom tow) of carbon dioxide (CO₂, yellow), CH₄ (orange), BC (dark brown) and CO (green), illustrating that the temperature impact of short-lived climate forcers is much larger when calculated over a shorter period.
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| [ adaptation of IPCC image, highlighting the impact of CO₂, CH₄, BC and CO ] |
The screenshot below also discusses the impact of short-lived climate forcers such as CH₄, stratospheric water vapor (H₂O), BC, CO and O₃.
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| [ screenshot from earlier post ] |
James Hansen once wrote the following (in 2007), mentioning a GWP of BC of ~2000 over 20 years:
"CO₂ is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO₂ emissions and reduce non-CO₂ forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO₂ forcings is methane (CH₄), as it causes the 2nd largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric O₃, which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000, 500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment."
As discussed in an earlier post, methane eruptions from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean alone could suffice to abruptly cause a huge temperature rise. Additionally, compound impacts such as described above could abruptly drive up temperatures and strengthen feedbacks, causing industrial activity to collapse and sulfate cooling to end abruptly, in turn resulting in urban fires and in people resorting to burning biomass for heating, transport and cooking of food, further fuelling pollution. This combined impact could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed and cause a potential temperature rise of 18.44°C (from pre-industrial) in a matter of months, as discussed earlier at the extinction page.
Many of these mechanisms have been discussed in earlier posts such as this one. One mechanism is a cold freshwater lid that is forming at the surface of the North Atlantic, due to ocean stratification, meltwater and increased precipitation falling down the path of the Gulf Stream, as described at this page. The increased freshening of the sea surface may temporarily slow down melting of Arctic sea ice, but it also enables warm water to be carried underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane.
At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is resulting in less heat arriving in the Arctic ocean, temporarily that is, because the heat is accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean and a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of that heat into the Arctic Ocean.
For now, it appears that slowing down of AMOC and the formation of the freshwater lid are temporarily slowing down the melting of Arctic sea ice. At the same time, though, warm water is accumulating in the North Atlantic and the freshwater lid can enable much of this heat to abruptly - further facilitated by distortion of the Jet Stream - be carried underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane. As temperatures keep rising, such freshening can only temporarily slow down Arctic sea ice melting and the 2026 El Niño may prove it to be short-lived.
At the same time, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is resulting in less heat arriving in the Arctic ocean, temporarily that is, because the heat is accumulating in the Atlantic Ocean and a single cyclone may suffice to abruptly move huge parts of that heat into the Arctic Ocean.
For now, it appears that slowing down of AMOC and the formation of the freshwater lid are temporarily slowing down the melting of Arctic sea ice. At the same time, though, warm water is accumulating in the North Atlantic and the freshwater lid can enable much of this heat to abruptly - further facilitated by distortion of the Jet Stream - be carried underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of sediments containing huge amounts of methane. As temperatures keep rising, such freshening can only temporarily slow down Arctic sea ice melting and the 2026 El Niño may prove it to be short-lived.
Extreme weather all over the globe
As the temperature rise keeps accelerating, extreme weather events are striking with increasingly stronger ferocity, sharpened intensity, longer duration, greater frequency, wider ubiquity and with impact that is - accordingly - accelerating in severity.
Extreme weather events are increasingly striking locations all over the globe, as highlighted by the combination image below. A temperature of 52.9°C or 127.1°F was recorded at (a virtual) 1000 hPa on July 4, 2026, over Tibet at a location marked by the green circle (left), while a temperature of 21.3°C or 70.4°F was recorded at the same time and location at the surface in Tibet (right).
Tipping points crossed
The 2026 El Niño could trigger at least 10 tipping points to get crossed, as follows:
- the 2026 El Niño could contribute to:
- early demise of the Arctic sea ice, i.e. latent heat tipping point +
- associated loss of sea ice albedo,
- destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
- terrestrial permafrost to melt as well, resulting in even more emissions,
- while the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, resulting in more extreme weather events
- causing forest fires, at first in Siberia and Canada and
- eventually also in the peat fields and tropical rain forests of the Amazon, in Africa and South-east Asia, resulting in
- rapid melting on the Himalayas, temporarily causing huge flooding,
- followed by drought, famine, heat waves and mass starvation, and
- collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
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| [ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ] |
Conclusion
The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.
• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) - National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
Temperatures in Tibet are also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164452475574679
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Heat Stress in the US (2025)
• Arctic Blue Ocean Event 2025? (update June 2025)
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
Temperatures in Tibet are also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164452475574679
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Heat Stress in the US (2025)
• Climate change and trace gases - by James Hansen et al. (2007)
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/pubs/abs/ha02210k.html
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6319799_Climate_change_and_trace_gases
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/pubs/abs/ha02210k.html
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/6319799_Climate_change_and_trace_gases
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
