Arctic News: July 2026

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

The 2026 El Niño

Double Blue Ocean 2026/2027?

The developing 2026 El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later, as also discussed in an earlier post.

Forecasts indicate that the upcoming El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated June 30, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4°C for parts of many members and also for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated June 30, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 5°C for part of one forecast member and exceed 4°C for part of the mean.

The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer and also features in an earlier post. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).

According to NOAA, there is a 97% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and 98% chance of El Niño in January–March 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will be very strong in November 2026-January 2027.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.