Arctic News: ozone layer

Showing posts with label ozone layer. Show all posts

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica

The finger on the image below points at an area over Antarctica where a temperature anomaly of about +30°C was recorded on September 13, 2026.

The mechanism causing this very high temperature anomaly on Antarctica is an atmospheric river carrying warm, moist air from the Tropics to Antarctica, on the way taking up water vapor evaporating from the Southern Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Atmospheric rivers ]

Huge pressure differences facilitate such atmospheric rivers. The image on the right shows moisture flowing from high pressure areas near the Equator to low pressure areas over and around Antarctica. There are a number of causes behind these conditions, as described below.

High air temperatures

Air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through September 16, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.28°C or 79.3°F, an anomaly of 1.24°C or 2.23°F versus 1979-2000. The map (inset top right) shows surface air temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on that day, with the Tropics highlighted.

High sea surface temperatures

On the image below, there is barely any cold area left in the North Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are now starting to rise strongly in the Southern Hemisphere with the change in seasons. Global warming is making things worse and the 2026 El Niño is making things even worse, with extra heat rising up into the atmosphere from oceans. Furthermore, as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down, Antarctic temperatures can be expected to increase, finds a recent study led by Da Nian.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures as much as 8.8°C or 15.8°F higher than 1981-2011 south of Africa (at the green circle) on September 22, 2026.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures in the El Niño 3.4 region through September 21, 2026, when the temperature was 29.78°C or 85.6°F, an anomaly of 3.08°C or 5.54°F versus 1991-2020 and versus 1982-2010, and an increase of 4.03°C from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026.

The map (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on September 21, 2026, around the globe with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is indicative for the development of El Niño.

While the image below shows that the temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was also high in November 2015 when there was a strong El Niño, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026 and the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The image below shows that on September 22, 2026, the sea surface temperature (60°S–60°N) was 21.03°C or 69.85°F, an anomaly of 0.71°C or 1.28°F versus 1991-2020.

[ -70°C near South Pole ]

The map (inset top right) on the above image shows sea surface temperature anomalies on September 22, 2026, with high anomalies showing up across the globe.

Very cold in parts of Antarctica

In winter, temperatures are low in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature can be -70°C or even lower near the South Pole and parts of Antarctica, as illustrated by the image on the right, from the Antarctica page.

The temperature difference between areas at the Equator and parts of Antarctica can therefore be huge, deforming and increasing in strength the Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere, enabling the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica at great strength.

[ precipitable water standardized anomaly ]

The above image illustrates large temperature differences between the Equator and the South Pole causing the Jet Stream to cross Antarctica. At the green circle, wind at 250 hPa is as fast as 259 km/h and Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 79 kW/m² on September 13, 2026.

More water vapor in the air

Water vapor in the air is increasing. High (and rising) temperatures result in more water vapor in the atmosphere (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Global atmospheric water vapor was at a record high of 27.35 kg/m² in August 2026, says Roberta Boscolo. The image on the right shows warm, moist air being carried in the form of an atmospheric river toward and over Antarctica on September 13, 2026.

Snowfall over Antarctica

The image below, from the Antarctica page, shows a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 16.9 kg/m² on August 25, 2026.

The amount of snow falling on Antarctica can be substantial. The image on the right shows August 2026 total precipitation, with some coastal regions of Antarctica receiving relatively high amounts of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, due to low temperatures, and thickening the snow layer. Most of the snowfall on Antarctica originates from evaporation from the Southern Ocean, making the surface of the Southern Ocean more saline.

The image below shows that on September 12, 2026, a surface temperature of -0.3°C or 31.4°F was recorded near the coast of Antarctica (left), while a temperature of 5.2°C or 41.4°F was recorded over Antarctica at 1000 hPa.

[ Relative humidity in the stratosphere ]

The image on the right shows an area in the stratosphere (at 70 hPa or at about 17.5 km altitude) with a relative humidity of 100% (at the green circle) giving an idea of the strength at which water vapor is getting pushed into the air over Antarctica.

At a relative humidity of 100%, water vapor turns into solid ice crystals, since the temperature of the moist air in the stratosphere is very low (-91.0°C or -131.8°F at the green circle).

Higher salinity in Southern Ocean

Water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and much of the resulting precipitation returns to the Southern Ocean, but some precipitation falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer.

As a result of the extra snowfall over Antarctica, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. In salty water, sea ice can start melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F), while freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

Loss of Antarctic sea ice

Saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing this self-amplifying feedback loop.

The image below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness (left) and concentration (right) on September 13, 2026.

The image below shows that on September 23, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.32 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the third lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.49σ.

Around this time of year, Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its maximum extent. Antarctic sea ice extent has fallen since September 15, 2026, as illustrated by the image below. Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

The danger is further described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Ozone layer

An additional danger is water vapor reaching the stratosphere, with destructive impact on the ozone layer. Monthly total column water vapor was at a record high in August 2026. As temperatures keep rising, this danger becomes more and more manifest. Atmospheric rivers carrying moisture to Antarctica are increasingly common events, as discussed at the Antarctica page.

Copernicus found that the 2026 Antarctic ozone hole reached a significant size threshold slightly earlier than average, aligned with 2025. It has also stayed ahead of average, unlike the previous year, as illustrated by the image below.

CAMS chart of the ozone hole area on 12 September 2026. The red line shows the data for 2026 and the dotted line the forecast for the following 5 days. The thicker, darker blue line is the evolution of the ozone hole during 2025, and the lighter blue line represents 2024. The grey colours represent the percentile values and the median between 1979 – 2023.
Data source: CAMS/C3S Credit: CAMS/ECMWF

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Copernicus - Climate Pulse
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

• Copernicus - Precipitation, relative humidity, soil moisture and river flow for August 2026 https://climate.copernicus.eu/precipitation-relative-humidity-soil-moisture-and-river-flow-august-2026

• Copernicus: Ozone hole reaches notable threshold early again as area increases above average in 2026
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-ozone-hole-reaches-notable-threshold-early-again-area-increases-above-average-2026
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164773077179679

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - by Da Nian et al. (2026)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03427-w
Also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/permalink/10164124732849679

• Water Vapor Worries
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/water-vapor-worries.html

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Water Vapor Worries

The Ozone Layer

[CC image, credit: nptel.ac.in ]

The Atmosphere can be divided into layers. The Troposphere is the layer that is closest to the surface. When rising up in the Atmosphere, the next layer up is the Stratosphere. The next layer up is the Mesosphere and the fourth layer from the bottom is the Thermosphere.

The temperature rises or falls in a different way in each of these layers, as illustrated by the red line in the image CC from archive.nptel.ac.in on the right and the scale on the bottom.

The ozone layer is located in the lower stratosphere at an altitude of 15 to 35 km or 9 to 22 miles above the Earth's surface, with the highest concentrations usually peaking around 25 km. This altitude corresponds with a pressure level of 100 to 10 mb or hPa.

The ozone layer absorbs 97% to 99% of the Sun's medium-frequency ultraviolet light (from about 200 nm to 315 nm wavelength), which otherwise could cause severe damage to life on Earth.

Water vapor rising over Antarctica

The image below shows a temperature anomaly forecast for July 3, 2026. At this time of year very little sunlight is reaching Antarctica, so the temperature over Antarctica can get very low. At the same time, global warming has increased sea surface temperatures and this also keeps air temperatures over water relatively warm. The difference in temperature strengthens wind patterns from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica, which can lead to atmospheric rivers moving toward Antarctica, carrying water vapor and heat from the Southern Ocean to Antarctica.

The red color on the above image indicates high temperature anomalies over Antarctica. The dark blue areas indicate where snow has fallen over the sea ice around Antarctica and over the interior of Antarctica.

As temperatures rise, the water vapor in the air increases. The amount of water vapor that the air can hold rises by 7% for each 1°C temperature rise (Clausius-Clapeyron relation). While much of the water vapor will fall out of the air as precipitation, in the form of rain or snow, some of the water vapor will remain in the air. This extra water vapor increases temperatures, since water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. The IPCC adds: Water vapor feedback acting alone approximately doubles the warming from what it would be for fixed water vapor. Furthermore, water vapor feedback acts to amplify other feedbacks in models, such as cloud feedback and ice albedo feedback. If cloud feedback is strongly positive, the water vapor feedback can lead to 3.5 times as much warming as would be the case if water vapor concentration were held fixed.

Part of the precipitation will fall over Antarctica in the form of snow, thickening the snow cover there, without returning to the surface of the Southern Ocean. The net result is that the salinity of the Southern Ocean surface increases, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice, further speeding up the temperature rise, as also discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

The threat is further illustrated by the image below, which shows a forecast of precipitable water standardized anomalies on June 30, 2026.

[ minus 70.2°C near South Pole ]

In the Northern Hemisphere, rising temperatures are narrowing the temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole, slowing down the wind flow from south to north, resulting in a distorted Jet Stream that goes circular in many areas, and this can increase the severity, intensity, frequency, duration and ubiquity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and forest fires.

The Jet Stream in the Southern Hemisphere is now very powerful, since the temperature difference is large between the Equator and the South Pole, where temperatures lower than -70°C are recorded, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The situation is further illustrated by the image below, dated July 25, 2026, 09:00 UTC. At a location marked by the green circle, wind at 250 hPa reaches a speed of 321 km/h, while Instantaneous Wind Power Density is 143.1 kW/m².

This can at times cause the Jet Stream to move over parts of Antarctica, enabling warm, moist air to move from the Southern Ocean over Antarctica, which can result in very high temperatures anomalies, as illustrated by the image below that shows a forecast with areas over Antarctica reaching temperature anomalies of about +30°C on July 18, 2026, i.e. winter heatwave conditions in Antarctica.

In the video below, Guy McPherson discussed warming of Antarctica.

Damage to the Ozone Layer

Furthermore, part of the extra water vapor can rise up and moisten the atmosphere up to and above the ozone layer. The combination image below shows relative humidity on June 30, 2026 at 01:00 UTC, with relative humidity reaching up to 100% at surface level (left), up to 100% at 70 mb or hPa (center), and up to 23% at 10 mb or hPa (right).

[ from earlier post ]

Increases in stratospheric water vapor are bad news, as they not only speed up global warming but also lead to loss of stratospheric ozone, as Drew Shindell pointed out back in 2001.

It has long been known that deterioration of the ozone shield increases ultraviolet-B irradiation, in turn causing skin cancer.

Research (box right) suggests that, millions of years ago, it could also have led to loss of fertility and consequent extinction in plants and animals.

Water vapor reaching stratospheric altitudes causes ozone depletion, as James Anderson describes in a 2017 paper and discusses in the short 2016 video below.

[ from earlier post ]

A recent study led by Yifeng Peng finds that moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires since 2005 have systematically increased stratospheric water vapor. Both contribute through aerosol-induced tropopause warming; extreme wildfires also reveal an additional self-lofting pathway that transports water vapor into the stratosphere.

Conclusion

The image below shows annual maximum daily precipitation change with a temperature versus 1850-1900 rise of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C, from the IPCC AR6.

The situation looks set to deteriorate further. More water vapor causes more warming, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. As more snow falls over Antarctica, the sea surface of the Southern Ocean increases in salinity, which speeds up melting of sea ice. The extra water vapor and increased melting of sea ice can both strongly accelerate the temperature rise, while water vapor that reaches the stratosphere also causes damage to the ozone layer.