Arctic News: Ocean heat threatens sea ice

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Ocean heat threatens sea ice

High sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Pacific Ocean on May 22, 2026.

The above image highlights sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981–2011 in three areas:

5.3°C off the coast of South America, 4.6°C off the coast of California and 5.4°C off the coast of Asia.

As illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA, a huge amount of ocean heat has accumulated in the last two months, in the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

[ from earlier post ]

Both subsurface ocean heat and ocean heat that has moved from the ocean to the atmosphere during the upcoming El Niño can be expected to contribute to strong loss of Arctic sea ice over the next few months.

On May 9, 2026, the highest sea surface temperatures on record for the time of year were recorded, as illustrated by the image below.

The rise in the Earth Energy Imbalance and in ocean heat is outpacing SPSS5-8.5, as illustrated by the combination image below, by Leon Simons.

Rising temperatures are threatening to cause dramatic loss in sea ice. The situation is becoming critical over the next few months, with further development of the 2026 El Niño.

As illustrated by the image below, Arctic sea ice extent was 12.03 million km² on May 19, 2026, the second lowest extent on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -2.89σ. Highlighted in black is 2026 and highlighted in blue is 2012, the record low year for Arctic sea ice extent. Highlighted in purple is 2016, a strong El Niño year.

The image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, shows that the daily Arctic sea ice volume was at a record low for the time of year on May 20, 2026, as it has been for years.

As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice area was 1.59 million km² lower than 1981-2010 on May 19, 2026, the second lowest global area on record for the time of year and a deviation from 1981-2010 of -3.61σ. Highlighted in black is 2026 and highlighted in blue is 2025, until now the record low year for global sea ice area.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.