Arctic News: May 2026

Friday, May 1, 2026

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may be gone within ten months

Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice may be gone within ten months. On April 24, 2026, Arctic sea ice was lowest for the time of year in extent, in area and in volume, as highlighted in an earlier post. The post warns that the upcoming El Niño could cause all Arctic sea ice to disappear in September 2026, resulting in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase global temperatures and subsequently also cause all Antarctic sea to disappear in a matter of months.

The upcoming El Niño threatens to become a monster within months.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a forecast dated May 1, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is indicative for El Niño development), with forecasts partly exceeding 4°C for some forecast members, while part of the forecast for the Coupled Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2) ensemble mean (black dashed line) exceeds 3°C. The image below shows forecasts for the Niño3 region dated May 1, 2026.

Forecasts of anomalies in sea surface temperature anomalies in El Niño regions reaching or exceeding 3°C indicate that the 2026 El Niño will be even stronger than the 2015-16 El Niño, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA and with a potential 2026-27 El Niño anomaly of 3°C added in red. Note that the image below uses the relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), whereas the above forecasts use the Oceanic Nino Indec (ONI) that can show slightly higher anomalies.

[ from earlier post ]

The image below shows the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino3.4 region over the years from the start of the year until late June. On April 29, the 2026 SST (red line) was higher than the 2016 SST (thick grey line). From January 9, 2026, through April 29, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region has risen by 3.03°C.

[ from earlier post ]

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.