Arctic News: Clouds Tipping Point

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Clouds Tipping Point - update 1

A 5 Gt burst of seafloor methane would nearly double the methane in the atmosphere and could instantly raise CO₂e level to well above 1200 ppm, thus triggering the cloud feedback.

The image below is an update of an earlier analysis that refers to data dating back a few years. Meanwhile, concentrations of greenhouse gases have kept rising and radiative forcing estimates for 2025 have been released.

The above image looks into a scenario in which methane concentrations nearly double, due to 5 Gt of methane getting released, instantly increasing CO₂e levels to above 1200 ppm and thus triggering the cloud feedback, as described in the image and as illustrated by the bar on the right in the above image.

Importantly, the clouds tipping point could also be crossed with far less methane getting released. As illustrated by the bar on the left in the above image, levels of further pollutants could increase rapidly while feedbacks strengthen and while sulfate cooling ends abruptly, causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed and resulting in a potential rise of 18.44°C (from pre-industrial) by the end of 2026, as also discussed at the extinction page.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.