Arctic News

Friday, August 2, 2024

High feels like temperature forecast

Temperatures are forecast to reach 46.5°C or 115.8°F in Saudi Arabia (green circle left) and to reach 36.1°C or 96.9°F in China (green circle right) on August 4, 2024 06 UTC.

As illustrated by the image below, 'feels like' temperatures are forecast to reach 42.1°C or 107.9°F in Saudi Arabia (green circle left) and 53.6°C or 128.4°F at that location in China (green circle right), i.e. at Gaoyou, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, China, 325 km North of Shanghai, China, on August 4, 2024 06 UTC.

What makes the difference is that the 'feels like' temperature is the perceived air temperature as a combination of the heat index and wind chill. The heat index combines air temperature and relative humidity, in shaded areas. Relative humidity is forecast to be 7% in Saudi Arabia at the green circle left and 69% in China at the green circle right on August 4, 2024 06 UTC, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows an even higher 'feels like' temperature of 55°C (130.9°F) that was recorded at a location 368 km north of Shanghai, China, on August 4, 2024, 09 UTC, caused by a combination of a temperature of 35.5°C (95.8°F) and a relative humidity of 75%, also resulting in a wet bulb temperature of 31.4°C (88.4°F). The image was made with a screenshot of current conditions (nowcast) at the time, but later readings show lower values (see image further below).

In hindsight, the highest 'feels like' temperature turned out to be 53.6°C (128.6°F), recorded at a location 361 km north of Shanghai, China, on August 4, 2024, 09 UTC, caused by a combination of a temperature of 35.6°C (96.2°F) and a relative humidity of 72%, also resulting in a wet bulb temperature of 31°C (87.7°F), as illustrated by the image below.

The above image also shows wind at surface level, with a large circular wind pattern showing up south of Japan, which may have influenced conditions.

An earlier post showed that a 'feels like' temperature of 54°C (129.1°F) hit an area west of Wuhan, China, on July 23, 2024.

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature in California

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature takes into account the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature is used by weather.gov to warn about extreme heat stress when in direct sunlight, as is forecast to occur in California in the grey areas on August 6, 2024 at 21 UTC.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows that a very high wet bulb global temperature is forecast for August 6, 2024, 21 UTC, at a location 7 miles west of Imperial, California, with the following details (inset):
- Temperature : 113°F or 45°C
- Apparent Temperature : 123°F or 51°C
- Wet Bulb Globe Temperature : 97°F or 36°C
- Dew Point : 69°F or 21°C
- Relative Humidity : 25%

Heat stress fatalities

Heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, as illustrated by the image below (credit: NOAA, text below from earlier post).

As the above image notes, the values for heat fatalities may be conservative. Research finds that where heat is being listed as an official cause of death, this likely underestimates the full toll of these events. Extreme heat can trigger heart attacks and strokes. In addition, some heart disease risk factors, such as diabetes—as well as heart medications, such as diuretics and beta blockers—can affect a person’s ability to regulate their body temperature and make it difficult to handle extreme heat. The study finds that extreme heat accounted for about 600-700 additional deaths from cardiovascular disease annually. A study estimates that extreme heat accounted for 12,000 premature deaths in the contiguous U.S. from 2000 to 2010, and an analysis calculates that the summer 2022 heatwave killed 61,000 people in Europe alone.

Temperature thresholds

As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.

A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.

As temperatures rise, high 'feels like' temperatures and high wet bulb globe temperatures can be expected to occur more and more.

Wildlife, pets, livestock and vegetation also suffer at higher temperatures. A recent study finds thresholds where vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression, with threshold crossings occurring first of all in tropical regions. The study adds that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. Crop failure, loss of vegetation (and benefits such as shade) and water shortages add to the predicament of high (and rising) temperatures.

Water vapor feedback

[ from Moistening Atmosphere ]

The water vapor feedback is one of numerous self-amplifying feedbacks that accelerate the temperature rise. Just the temperature rise itself will cause more water vapor to be present in the atmosphere. Rising temperatures will result in more water vapor in the atmosphere at a rate of 7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming, and this will further amplify the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, as discussed at the extinction page.

The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, which could be as much as 2.75°C above the pre-industrial temperature. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere.

As illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data, surface precipitable water reached a record high of 27.395 kg/m² in July 2024.

Climate change danger assessment

The image below, earlier discussed here, expands risk assessment beyond its typical definition as the product of the severity of impact and probability of occurrence, by adding a third dimension: timescale, in particular imminence.

Imminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible.

Rapidly rising temperatures constitute tipping points in several ways

Firstly, there are thresholds beyond which rising temperatures become lethal for humans, as discussed above.

Secondly, some species are more vulnerable than other species. As Gerardo Ceballos describes in a 2017 analysis, there is a biological tipping point that threatens annihilation of species via the ongoing sixth mass extinction. Researchers such as Gerardo Ceballos (2020), Kevin Burke (2018) and Ignation Quintero (2013) have for years warned that mammals and vertebrates cannot keep up with the rapid rise in temperature. Humans are classified as vertebrate mammals, indicating that we will not avoid the fate of extinction, Guy McPherson (2020) adds.

Thirdly, there are further tipping points, e.g. sociopolitical ones. On the one hand, it would be good if people became more aware, as this could prompt more people into supporting the necessary action. On the other hand, as temperatures keep rising and politicians keep downplaying the dangers, there is a danger that panic will break out, dictators will grab power and civilization as we know it will collapse abruptly, as warned about earlier, e.g. in 2007.

High methane levels over Arctic Ocean

Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and one of the most-dreaded feedbacks that could contribute to such a rise is methane. Ominously, high methane levels are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for August 11, 2024, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus.

The above image shows a forecast for August 11, 2024, 00 UTC, at 850 hPa. High methane levels are present over the Arctic Ocean on the forecast. Note that the scale goes up to 24,840 parts per billion (ppb) for the dark red color.

Ominously, high methane levels were also recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov

• High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Danger

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/07/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperature-danger.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• Extreme heat stress
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html

• Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming - by Xiangyi Li et al.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.17406
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10161596967289679

• Copernicus methane forecasts

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams/products/methane-forecasts

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Thickest sea ice breaking away from Greenland

Large pieces of sea ice are breaking away from the northern tip of Greenland, to be carried by ocean currents to the Fram Strait east of Greenland. On their way they will melt away, illustrating how ocean heat can make even the thickest parts of the sea ice disappear in a matter of days.

The thick sea ice north of Greenland is breaking away due to high ocean heat and due to strong wind blowing from Greenland toward the North Pole, which is in turn due to deformation of the Jet Stream, one of the many feedbacks of the temperature rise.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows wind at 250 hPa and sea surface temperatures. Sea surface temperatures as high as 1.2°C (34.2°F) show up at the green circle just north of Greenland, on July 30, 2024.

On the right is a Naval Research Laboratory animation of Arctic sea ice thickness through July 29, 2024, with forecasts added through August 6, 2024.

The animation below shows a NASA Worldview animation of satellite images from July 25, 2024 to July 29, 2024. This is a 6.5 MB file, so if it doesn't show up due to its size, you may be able to view it by clicking on the Facebook comment box underneath.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The animation below shows the thickest Arctic sea ice breaking away from Greenland between July 24, 2024, and August 1, 2024.

Deformation of the Jet Stream

The Arctic Ocean is heating up as a result of increases in ocean heat and air temperatures. As sea ice melts away, feedbacks such as albedo changes further speed up the temperature rise. The Arctic Ocean is also heating up due to higher temperatures of river water. The temperature was as much as 14.8°C or 26.6°F higher than 1981-2011 at a location where water of the Ob River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean (green circle), as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows the situation on August 2, 2024, when sea surface temperatures were as much as 15.8°C or 28.4°F higher than 1981-2011 where water of the Ob River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean (green circle). The image also shows wind at 250 hPa, illustrating deformation of the Jet Stream, with many circular wind patterns, another feedback of the temperature rise.

Permafrost decline results in more meltwater entering the Arctic Ocean from rivers. Deformation of the Jet Stream can strengthen heatwaves that heat up river water, causing a lot more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean. A deformed Jet Stream can also strengthen storms and rainfall, further speeding up the thawing of permafrost and resulting in more run-off of water into the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, deformation of the Jet Stream can at times strengthen wind patterns that speed up the flow of rivers and ocean currents, speeding up disintegration of sea ice and resulting in more heat getting abruptly pushed into the Arctic Ocean.

The combination image below shows, on the left, a 16.7°C or 62.1°F sea surface temperature recorded on August 8, 2024, off the coast where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle); the Jet Stream shows many circular patterns and an omega pattern over the area with the green circle. On the right, the image shows a 34°C or 93.1°F surface temperature over land recorded on August 8, 2024, south of where the Mackenzie River enters the Arctic Ocean (green circle).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Deformation of the Jet Stream enables heatwaves to extend over the Arctic Ocean, with high air temperatures speeding up sea ice decline, while hot water from rivers further speeds up sea ice decline, resulting in loss of albedo, loss of the latent heat buffer and further changes that jointly speed up the temperature rise and further deform the Jet Stream.

The image below, from an earlier post, illustrates how multiple feedbacks and their interaction can accelerate the temperature rise.

In conclusion, deformation of the Jet Stream can contribute to higher temperatures by strengthening extreme weather events such as circular wind patterns, heatwaves, fires, storms, lightning and rainfall, i.e. by strengthening their intensity, frequency, duration and area covered, as also discussed and illustrated in earlier posts such as this one.

Further illustrating this is the image below, which shows numerous fires in Canada that cause emissions that in turn cause black carbon to be deposited on sea ice and permafrost, speeding up their decline and the temperature rise.

Links

• Nullschool

https://earth.nullschool.net

• Naval Research Laboratory

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html

• NASA Worldview
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Danger

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) takes into account the effect of temperature, RH (relative humidity), wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT is used by weather.gov to warn about extreme heat stress when in direct sunlight, as is forecast to occur in grey areas on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The inset shows that a temperature of 113°F or 45°C and a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 95°F or 35°C is forecast for a location 8 miles south of Parker, Arizona, on July 26, 2024 at 21 UTC.

The above map illustrates that extreme heat stress can occur at higher latitudes, e.g. the grey areas in the north of the United States that extend into Canada. The danger occurs where high temperatures coincide with high relative humidity.

The image below further illustrates the danger. It shows that a 'feel like' temperature of 54°C (129.1°F) and a wet bulb temperature of 31°C (87.7°F) hit an area west of Wuhan, China, on July 23, 2024 at 10:00 UTC (green circle).

The temperature at that location in China wasn't the highest on the map, it was 36.4°C (97.4°F), which is high, but what further contributed to make conditions hard to bear was that relative humidity was 68%.

The image on the right, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a 3-day forecast of temperatures in the region, run on July 23, 2024.

Heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, as illustrated by the image below (credit: NOAA).

As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.

A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

Rapidly rising temperatures constitute tipping points in several ways

Firstly, there is a biological threshold beyond which rising temperatures become lethal for humans, as discussed above.

Secondly, as Gerardo Ceballos describes in the video below and in a 2017 analysis, there is a biological tipping point that threatens annihilation of species via the ongoing sixth mass extinction. Researchers such as Gerardo Ceballos (2020), Kevin Burke (2018) and Ignation Quintero (2013) have for years warned that mammals and vertebrates cannot keep up with the rapid rise in temperature. Humans are classified as vertebrate mammals, indicating that we will not avoid the fate of extinction, Guy McPherson (2020) adds.

Thirdly, there are further tipping points, e.g. social-political ones. On the one hand, it would be good if people became more aware, as this could prompt more people into supporting the necessary action. On the other hand, as temperatures keep rising, there is also a danger that panic will break out, dictators will grab power and civilization as we know it will collapse abruptly, as warned about earlier, e.g. in 2007.

Links

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov

• National Weather Service - Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: How and when to use it
https://www.weather.gov/news/211009-WBGT

• The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance - by Colin Raymons et al. (2020)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw1838

• Brief periods of dangerous humid heat arrive decades early
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/brief-periods-dangerous-humid-heat-arrive-decades-early

• Evaluating the 35°C wet-bulb temperature adaptability threshold for young, healthy subjects (PSU HEAT Project) - by Daniel Vecellio et al. (2022)
https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10159973158374679

• NOAA - Weather Fatalities 2022
https://www.weather.gov/hazstat

• The Effects of Heat Exposure on Human Mortality Throughout the United States - by Drew Shindell (2021)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000234

• Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 - by Joan Ballester et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160875637104679

• As Temperatures Spike, So Do Deaths from Heart Disease (2022 News release)
https://www.acc.org/About-ACC/Press-Releases/2022/03/22/20/06/As-Temperatures-Spike-So-Do-Deaths-from-Heart-Disease

• Association of Extreme Heat and Cardiovascular Mortality in the United States: A County-Level Longitudinal Analysis From 2008 to 2017 - by Sameed Khatana et al. (2022)
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.060746

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156903792219679

• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html

• Climate Reanalyzer - Hourly Forecast Maps
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=nam&dm_id=conus-lc&wm_id=t2

• PBS video - Too HOT and HUMID to Live: Extreme Wet Bulb Events are on the Rise
https://www.pbs.org/video/too-hot-and-humid-to-live-extreme-wet-bulb-events-are-on-th-fazocs

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• How agriculture hastens species extinction | 60 Minutes (CBS News) | Gerardo Ceballos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=f21WWocqR-c

• Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich and Rodolfo Dirzo (2017)
https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089

• Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction - by Gerardo Ceballos, Paul Ehrlich, and Peter Raven (2020)
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/27/1922686117
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10158460232764679

• Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species - by Ignatio Quintero et al. (2013)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12144

• Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates - by Kevin Burke et al. (2018)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115
Discussed at facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10156972951354679

• Earth is in the Midst of Abrupt, Irreversible Climate Change - by Guy McPherson (2020)
https://www.onlinescientificresearch.com/articles/earth-is-in-the-midst-of-abrupt-irreversible-climate-change.pdf
Discussed at facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160004947844679

• Ten Dangers of Global Warming
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/ten-dangers-of-global-warming.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• Extreme heat stress
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Both Paris Agreement thresholds clearly crossed

Temperatures are rising

The NASA temperature anomaly vs. 1904-1924 shows that the temperature has been above 1.5°C for the past twelve months, as illustrated by the image below. The red line shows the trend (one-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

Note that the 1904-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the temperature anomaly has over the past twelve months also been above the 2°C threshold that politicians at the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged wouldn't be crossed.

[ from earlier post ]

The above image, from an earlier post, shows that the February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial (bright yellow inset right). The image was created by Sam Carana for Arctic-news.blogspot.com with an April 2024 data.giss.nasa.gov screenshot. The red line (6 months Lowess smoothing) highlights the steep rise that had already taken place by then.

On July 21, 2024, a record high global temperature was reached of 17.09°C (62.76°F). The previous record, 17.08°C, was reached on July 6, 2023.

The next day, on July 22, 2024, the global surface air temperature reached 17.16°C (62.89°F), a new record high.

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N) was 20.9°C (69.62°F) on July 19, 2024, up from 20.82°C (69.48°F) on July 3, 2024. The question is whether the August 2024 sea surface temperatures will be higher than the peak reached in 2023.

The temperature at the North Pole was 0.1°C (32.3°F) on July 21, 2024, and is forecast to rise over the next few days.

Feedbacks

Higher temperatures come with feedbacks, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

As sea ice disappears, feedbacks accelerate the loss, including:

• Albedo loss - water is less reflective than ice (feedback #1)

• Loss of the latent heat buffer - as sea ice disappears, heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting, and the heat will instead go into increasing the temperature (feedback #14)

• Emissivity - water is less efficient than ice in emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23)

• Water vapor and clouds - warmer water comes more water vapor and less low-level clouds that reflect sunlight back into space (feedback #25)

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Furthermore, decline of sea ice and permafrost is forecast to result in huge emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane.

Permafrost decline also results in more meltwater in rivers. Heatwaves further heat up the water in rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 20.2°C (68.36°F) in the Bering Strait on July 25, 2024.

• Deformation of the Jet Stream occurs as the Arctic heats up more rapidly than the rest of the world, which narrows the temperature difference between the Tropics and the Arctic, and this in turn changes the shape of the Jet Stream (feedback #19).

The Jet Stream will meander more and can at times even form circular wind patterns in some areas, which can strongly amplify extreme weather events such as storms that come with flooding and heatwaves, increasing their intensity, frequency, duration and area covered.

• On land, more extreme weather can cause strong rainfall, causing even stronger thawing of permafrost and more run-off of water into the Arctic Ocean (feedback #24).

• Storms and heatwaves further accelerate heating up of river water, causing a lot more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean (feedback #4).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Additionally, deformation of the Jet Stream can at times speed up the flow of ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream enables strong winds to develop over the North Atlantic, which can in turn strongly accelerate the speed at which hot water is flowing toward the Arctic Ocean along path of the Gulf Stream. As a deformed Jet Stream speeds up this flow, huge amounts of ocean heat can abruptly be pushed from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean in the path of the Gulf Stream.

The image on the right shows hot water getting pushed along the path of the Gulf Stream from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Arctic Ocean. The image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.9°C (91.22°F) on July 15, 2024.

The image below illustrates the huge amount of ocean heat present in the North Atlantic Ocean, with sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C (91.04°F) on July 29, 2024.

• Furthermore, a freshwater lid can form on top of the surface of the North Atlantic, enabling more hot water to flow underneath this lid into the Arctic Ocean (feedback #28).

• Eruptions of seafloor methane - as more heat reaches the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, sediments and hydrates contained in them destabilize, resulting in methane releases (feedback #16)

Biochar needed to fight forest fires

Higher temperatures also come with greater forest fires hazards (feedback #9). Stronger drought and heatwaves and increased lightning further increase forest fire hazards. Forest fires result in emissions that cause black carbon to settle on ice, accelerating the temperature rise due to albedo loss and speeding up thawing of permafrost and melting of sea ice. The image below, adapted from Copernicus, shows a biomass burning aerosols forecast for July 22, 2024.

Forest fires contribute to the temperature rise in multiple ways, including:
• forest fires cause emissions that cause more heat to be trapped;
• forest fires contributed to the 2023 global net land carbon dioxide sink to be the weakest since 2003;

• forest fires reduce soil moisture content, which in turn reduces health and growth of vegetation and makes the land more vulnerable to erosion;
• forest fires cause emissions of black carbon that darkens the surface, resulting in less sunlight getting reflected back into space.

[ image from a 2014 post ]

The study into carbon sources and sinks, linked to above, refers to itself as an "analysis of the global carbon budget", which can give the wrong impression that it was healthy and sustainable to keep causing carbon emissions as long as the emissions were "compensated" by carbon taken up by land and ocean "sinks".

Similarly, the IPCC refers to a "carbon budget" as if there was an amount of carbon to be divided among polluters and to be consumed for decades to come.

The image on the right illustrates the fallacy of offsets. Instead, effective and comprehensive action is needed on multiple lines of action, simultaneously yet separately.

Indeed, action is needed to reduce concentrations of carbon both in oceans and in the atmosphere. On land, the soil carbon content needs to increase, which can be achieved by methods such as pyrolysis of biowaste and adding the resulting biochar to the soil, which will reduce fire hazards, sequester carbon and support the presence of moisture & nutrients in the soil and the health & growth of vegetation, as discussed at the Climate Plan group and the biochar group.

For more on feedbacks, see the feedbacks page.

Sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere

After an astonishing rise in 2023, sea surface temperature anomalies fell for six months in the Northern Hemisphere, but they are rising again, threatening to cause dramatic sea ice loss over the next few months and destabilize sediments at the seafloor, resulting in huge amounts of methane erupting and abruptly entering the atmosphere.

Rising sea surface temperatures are a major driver of sea ice loss.

Global sea ice extent takes a tumble

Higher temperatures result in more loss of sea ice. The image below shows that the global sea ice extent remained at a record low for the time of year on July 29, 2024.

The above image shows global sea ice extent at a record low for the time of year, after a huge fall from 22.45 million km² on July 9, 2024, to 21.08 million km² on July 29, 2024, as feedbacks start kicking in with greater ferocity, incl. less albedo, latent heat buffer and emissivity, more water vapor, less lower clouds, Jet Stream changes, more emissions, lightning and forest fires, stronger rainfall and heatwaves causing more run-off of heat, and stronger storms that can push ocean heat toward the poles, all contributing to accelerate sea ice loss and the temperature rise.

The paragraph below is from an earlier post:
Sea ice loss results in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and instead getting absorbed by the ocean and the impact of Antarctic sea ice loss is even stronger than Arctic sea ice loss, as Antarctic sea ice is located closer to the Equator, as pointed out by Paul Beckwith in a video in an earlier post. A warmer Southern Ocean also comes with fewer bright clouds, further reducing albedo, as discussed here and here. For decades, there still were many lower clouds over the Southern Ocean, reflecting much sunlight back into space, but these lower clouds have been decreasing over time, further speeding up the amount of sunlight getting absorbed by the water of the Southern Ocean, and this 'pattern effect' could make a huge difference globally, as this study points out. Emissivity is a further factor; open oceans are less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum (feedback #23 on the feedbacks page).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The temperature rise comes with sea ice decline and feedbacks, as illustrated by the above image.

A. Higher temperatures cause sea ice decline and feedbacks, including deformation of the Jet Stream, due to narrowing of the temperature difference between the Poles and the Tropics.

B. At times, the Jet stream can move over Antarctica, bringing along warmer air.

C. This can result in anomalies of over 30°C, further accelerating sea ice decline.

D. Higher temperatures can also cause warm air to rise up into the stratosphere, where it can be -16.5°C near Australia (green circle).

Arctic sea ice

The image below, adapted from the Danish Metereological Institute, indicates that Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as it has been for most of the year. At the same time, Arctic sea ice extent is not the lowest on record for the time of year; on July 25, 2024, Arctic sea ice extent was third lowest on record, extent was lower only in 2019 and 2020 of all years on record. See discussion at facebook. The implication is that sea ice must be very thin.

The image below, adapted from the University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice thickness on July 19, 2024.

The above images shows that most of the thicker Arctic sea ice has melted, i.e. the latent heat buffer has virtually disappeared. This and further feedbacks and events (e.g. high sunspots) may cause temperatures to keep rising, even while La Niña is expected to prevail in Aug-Oct 2024. The screenshot below, from an earlier post, further illustrates the danger.