Arctic temperatures rose by 0.48°C from -7.37°C on October 21, 2026, to -6.89°C on October 25, 2026, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The globe shows global anomalies vs 1991-2020 for that day, with the Arctic highlighted.
The image below shows the situation on October 31, 2026. The temperature anomaly has risen significantly in October 2026.
On November 1, 2026, temperatures in an area near the North Pole were more than 20°C higher than they were in 1991-2020, as illustrated by the image below.
How could Arctic temperatures be high and rising, at a time of year when the temperature normally is decreasing?
At times, polar amplification of the temperature rise hits the Arctic hard. Additionally, the rise in Arctic temperature is caused by the strengthening El Niño. Furthermore, air temperatures in the Tropics are high. The image below, from an earlier post, shows surface air temperatures in the Tropics through October 24, 2026, when the temperature in the Tropics was 26.52°C, an anomaly of 1.42°C versus 1979-2000, the highest anomaly on record. The globe (inset top left) shows the surface air temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 on October 24, 2026, with the Tropics highlighted.
A relatively wide difference in temperature between the Arctic and the Tropics increases the strength and speed of the wind from the Tropics to the Arctic, and the wind speed can increase dramatically particularly from the North Atlantic to the Arctic, where - over a long vertical stretch of ocean - prevailing winds typically are already strong and now they are getting even stronger as temperatures rise. What this can result in is illustrated by the combination image below, adapted from nullschool, showing a temperature of -21.6°C near the North Pole on October 25, 2026, and a temperature of 0.3°C at the same spot on October 31, 2026.
El Niño strengthening
Situation in Antarctica even worse
The situation is even worse in Antarctica, where the change of seasons, the accelerating temperature rise and the strengthening El Niño combine to threaten an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur soon, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.
The image on the right, adapted from nullschool, show an unusually high temperature in the stratosphere over Antarctica, indicating that large amounts of heat have risen to stratospheric levels there.
The combination image below shows Antarctic sea ice on November 5, 2026. The panel on the left shows thickness by the University of Bremen, the panel at the center shows concentration by the University of Bremen and the panel on the right shows concentration by NSIDC.org.
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| [ orange line on the right shows medium ice edge 1981-2010 ] |
Feedbacks
Contributing to the rise in sea surface temperature anomalies around Antarctica and the decline of Antarctic sea ice are numerous feedbacks that speed up such developments, including:
• albedo loss due to less lower clouds (#25),
• albedo loss due to cryosphere decline (#1) including loss of the latent heat buffer (#14),
• stronger wind, fires and jet stream distortion (#19),
• stronger evaporation and precipitation, and more water vapor in the atmosphere (#25),
• stronger evaporation and precipitation, and more water vapor in the atmosphere (#25),
• ocean stratification (#29) and
• oceans taking up less heat (#19),
• eruptions of seafloor methane (#16),
• rising salinity at the Southern Ocean's sea surface (#26), as also discussed below.
The above image shows some of these feedbacks, illustrating how they can combine and jointly strengthen the temperature rise and, as they do, amplify each other's impact and increase the heat in the atmosphere.
As an example, stratification and salinity changes in oceans can change circulation patterns in oceans, causing less heat to be taken up by the deep oceans, resulting in more heat accumulating at the sea surface and more heat remaining in the atmosphere. Some 91% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance is currently taken up by oceans, so even a small change in this percentage could leave vastly more heat in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.
As an example, stratification and salinity changes in oceans can change circulation patterns in oceans, causing less heat to be taken up by the deep oceans, resulting in more heat accumulating at the sea surface and more heat remaining in the atmosphere. Some 91% of the extra heat resulting from Earth's Energy Imbalance is currently taken up by oceans, so even a small change in this percentage could leave vastly more heat in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.
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| [ image from earlier post ] |
Rising salinity at the sea surface of the Southern Ocean
The mechanism behind the rising salinity at the sea surface of the Southern Ocean is discussed below.
A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.
Until 2015, rising temperatures resulted in melting of ice and enhanced precipitation that freshened the surface of the Southern Ocean, exacerbated by increasing stratification that prevented mixing. The temperature rise over the years also caused winds to be stronger, at the time causing the sea ice to spread out wider.
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).
A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.
An earlier post discusses the finding of a study led by Alessandro Silvano that, around 2015, surface salinity in the Southern Ocean began rising sharply – just as sea ice extent started to crash.
The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.
The post warns that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.
The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.
A recent study led by Robert Massom describes how stronger wind can causes stronger waves that can break up and pulverise ice floes into small fragments and slush, and that can also cause ice floes to flood over, resulting in ponds of seawater that enable algae growth. Unlike melt ponds, seawater wave ponds occur year-round. These feedbacks all reduce albedo, further speeding up the melting of sea ice.
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| [ Saltier water, less sea ice - from earlier post ] |
The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water). Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).
A recent study led by Theo Spira finds that, in 2015, anomalously strong winds enhanced mixing across the thin Winter Water layer, entraining warm and salty subsurface waters, which broke down upper-ocean stratification. Another recent study led by Earle Wilson find that in 2015, intensified wind-driven upwelling reversed the freshening trends, releasing years of accumulated ocean heat that contributed to unprecedented sea ice loss.
A recent study led by Da Nian warns that Antarctic regions (60°S − 90°S) may warm by around 6°C due to the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
A recent study led by Aditya Narayanan finds that East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward circumpolar deep water flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.
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| [ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ] |
The post also points at the danger that heat, previously stored in the deep ocean by sinking circumpolar waters, will instead remain at the surface and cause atmospheric temperatures to rise, as illustrated by the image on the right.
The post warns that higher temperatures come with feedbacks such as stronger wind and stronger evaporation, resulting in increased water vapor in the atmosphere.
The post further warns that, while much of the water vapor will return to the surface in the form of precipitation such as rain and snow, part of this precipitation will fall over Antarctica, with the net result of an increase in salinity of surface of the Southern Ocean, facilitating increased melting of Antarctic sea ice.
How high could temperatures rise in 2027?
The image below shows global daily surface air temperature anomaly in °C versus 1991-2020, based on December 1, 2022, through October 31, 2026, Copernicus ERA5 data with a trend added warning about a potential 7°C anomaly by end July 2027.
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| [ click on image to enlarge ] |
Anomalies in the two above images are compared to 1991-2020, which isn't pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, the data may have to be adjusted by more than +1°C, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one, which also discusses the use of linear versus non-linear trends.
Huge temperature rise?
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| [ from the Extinction page ] |
Eruptions of methane from the seafloor could, on their own, cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which in turn can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C, as discussed in this earlier post.
Temperatures look set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a additional temperature rises due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically due to more wood burning and forest fires taking place as industrial activity collapses.
Pursuing efforts?
Most nations have ratified the Paris Agreement, which means that politicians are legally obliged to adhere to the Paris Agreement thresholds. However, after more than a decade of pursuing efforts, little or no progress appears to have been made.
The temperature rise is clearly accelerating and denying such acceleration is yet another sick trick in the books of the politicians who control the IPCC, next to using an inappropriate base (instead of pre-industrial), ignoring parts of the current and future temperature rise, and inappropriately using linear trends, even when polynomials obviously work better.
The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.
The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.
Links
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://www.climatereanalyzer.org
• Will 2026 El Nino cause Antarctic Blue Ocean Event?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/10/will-2026-el-nino-cause-antarctic-blue-ocean-event.html
• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html
• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
• Transforming Society (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• The Climate Plan by Sam Carana (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
https://www.climatereanalyzer.org
• Will 2026 El Nino cause Antarctic Blue Ocean Event?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/10/will-2026-el-nino-cause-antarctic-blue-ocean-event.html
• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
https://charts.ecmwf.int
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2026-2027? - update June 2026
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/06/double-blue-ocean-event-2026-2027-update.html
• Copernicus
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
• Transforming Society (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• The Climate Plan by Sam Carana (2026)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-climate-plan-by-sam-carana.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
