Arctic News: Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Will Antarctic sea ice survive the El Niño?

Antarctic sea ice is in danger of collapse, for a number of reasons, as discussed in an earlier post.

High Temperatures

The world (60°S–60°N,0-360°E) sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 21.18°C on September 19, 2026, and sea surface temperatures look set to remain high or get even higher due to El Niño.

On September 19, 2026, sea surface temperatures were a record 1.02°C higher than 1982-2010 and were 1.02°C higher again on September 28, 2026, as illustrated by the above image. The map on the right shows global sea surface temperature anomalies on September 28, 2026.

El Niño

The image below, from an earlier post, shows that a record high temperature in the Niño 3.4 region was reached on September 25, 2026, on a tier with November 17, 2015, when there was a strong El Niño. Temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are indicative for El Niño's strength.

The 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026. The 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record and to continue to be very strong in early 2027.

Southern Ocean's sea surface more saline

The sea surface of the Southern Ocean has become more saline over the past decade. This makes it easier for the sea ice to melt, as discussed in an earlier post.

Low Antarctic sea ice

Antarctic sea ice is already very low compared to earlier years. The image below, from an earlier post, shows that on September 28, 2026, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.59 million km² lower than 1981-2010, the second lowest on record for that day and a deviation of -3.84σ. The blue band in the middle indicates one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 average.

Antarctic sea ice has decreased in extent since September 15, 2026, and extent was 17.058 million km² on September 28, 2026, the second lowest on record after 2023, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.

Minimum Antarctic sea ice extent is typically reached in February, but the 2026 El Niño may cause an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event to occur early, as early as end 2026. As said, the 2026 El Niño is forecast to reach its greatest strength from October to December 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is also forecast to become the strongest El Niño on record.

Antarctic sea ice area was only 1.09 million km² on February 22, 2023, very close to the 1 million km² threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be called, as illustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.

Huge temperature rise

Disappearance of Antarctic sea ice would be a horrendous climate disaster. The danger is that multiple feedbacks associated with sea ice loss, such as albedo loss, will strongly speed up the temperature rise, as described at Double Blue Ocean Event and the Antarctica page.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

The ClimatePlan by Sam Carana calls for implementation of sets of feebates, with fees imposed on sales of polluting products and the revenues from those fees used to fund rebates on cleaner alternatives. Sets of feebates are best implemented ASAP, separately and preferably locally, with disputes handled by Local People's Courts where randomly-chosen local residents deliver verdicts on whether policies confirm the weight of best-available science. Where needed, Climate Emergency Declarations can support progress.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center
https://nsidc.org

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Teleconnections: Atmospheric river carrying moisture to Antarctica