Arctic News: Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Heat flux forecast to enter Arctic early February 2025

[ high temperatures in Arctic, click on images to enlarge ]

A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C higher than 1979-2000, as illustrated by the above forecast for February 2, 2025 12Z, run January 25, 2025 06Z by Climate Reanalyzer.

[ 30°C anomaly hit North Pole ]

The image on the right shows an updated forecast (run January 26, 2025 12Z), which sees a large area over the North Pole reaching an anomaly of 30°C on February 2, 2025 06Z.

The mechanisms leading to this situation have been described in earlier posts, most recently in this post, which adds that as temperatures rise, a huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic and at its surface, and it is moving toward the Arctic due to prevailing wind and ocean currents.

[ Jet Stream changes, click on images to enlarge ]

Rising temperatures come with several feedbacks, one of which is deformation of the Jet Stream. Accordingly, the movement of heat toward the Arctic can at times be accelerated abruptly by strong longitudinal wind, accompanied by sudden acceleration of the Gulf Stream and its extension northward, as also illustrated by the image on the right.

A sudden influx of heat can cause dramatic and rapid sea ice decline, with huge amounts of methane erupting abruptly from the seafloor, all contributing strongly to the further temperature rise, which in turn comes with further feedbacks, such as more water vapor ending up in the atmosphere, as illustrated by the image below.

[ precipitable water anomaly ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.