Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Another Arctic Cyclone brewing

Paul Beckwith fears that another Arctic cyclone could be starting up about 5 days from now. 

GFSx model shows it churning from about August 19th or 20th onward to the end of the forecast (at least for 5 days+). It appears that this storm will be positioned closer to the Atlantic side, and be north of Greenland. 

There will be a very high pressure mass of warm air over Greenland and the cyclonic flow will be pushing ice toward the Atlantic. Paul stands by his prediction of no sea ice in the Arctic by September 30th. There still is some 30 to 40+ days of melt season left. Paul adds that the 40+ days will more likely apply due to warmer water from storm churning.

Paul Beckwith, B.Eng, M.Sc. (Physics), Ph. D. student (Climatology); Part-time Professor, University of Ottawa

View Paul's presentation by clicking on the link below:

Or, view the presentation in the window below (it may take some time for the file to fully load).


  1. Has Paul updated his forecast in the last day or two (since his forecast on August 18th)?


    1. Hi Buddy, thanks for commenting. Good to see the many graphs at climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com

      Paul has meanwhile reported that the cyclone that the GFSx model (August 17th model run) predicted to develop by today did not materialize.

      Paul adds: "normally, melt season ends on Sept 15th or so (25 days out) but that will likely be delayed until late September since water is much warmer than normal around ice. Still time for more cyclones..."

      Indeed, the melt season isn't over by far and as the ice becomes thinner and there is more open water, the frequency and intensity of cyclones and the damage they inflict look set to increase.