Could Humans Go Extinct Within Years?

Above image depicts how humans could go extinct within years. The image was created with NASA LOTI 1880-Dec.2019 data, 0.78°C adjusted to reflect ocean air temperatures (as opposed to sea surface temperatures), to reflect higher polar temperature anomalies (as opposed to leaving out 'missing' data) and to reflect a 1750 baseline (as opposed to a 1951-1980 baseline), with two trends added. Blue: a long-term trend based on Jan.1880-Dec.2019 data. Red: a short-term trend, based on Jan.2009-Dec.2019 data, to illustrate El Niño/La Niña variability and how El Niño could be the catalyst to trigger huge methane releases from the Arctic Ocean. This updates an earlier post with more detail on how the image was created.

The image below shows El Niño/La Niña variability going back to 1950, added to the NOAA monthly temperature anomaly.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows how ocean heat has increased over the years (from: from the paper Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, by Lijing Chang et al.).

Ocean heat is increasing rapidly, especially on the Northern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, showing the rise from 1980 through 2019.

The image underneath uses the same data and has a trend added pointing at a 1.5°C anomaly from the 20th century average by the year 2026.

As discussed in an earlier point, there is a tipping point at 1°C above the 20th century average, i.e. there are indications that a rise of 1°C will result in most of the sea ice underneath the surface to disappear. This sea ice used to consume the inflow of warm, salty water from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. So, while there may still be sea ice left at the surface, the latent heat buffer will be gone.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Loss of the latent heat buffer speeds up heating of the Arctic Ocean, with the danger that huge amounts of methane will be released from the seafloor. The image below illustrates the danger, showing that peak methane levels as high as 2670 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite on January 2, 2020 pm at 469 mb.



Most worryingly, above image shows a large almost-solidly magenta-colored area blanketing the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), with magenta indicating levels above 1950 ppb. Such satellite measurements indicate that large amounts of methane are erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.

Above image shows that, a few years ago, methane was accumulating most strongly at an altitude corresponding to a pressure of some 400 mb. More recently, methane has been accumulating most strongly at higher altitudes, corresponding to a pressure of just under 300 mb, which is the upper limit of the troposphere over the North Pole. Methane tends to follow the Tropopause, i.e. at higher altitudes methane will be present in higher concentrations closer to the Equator, where the troposphere extends further into space, as discussed in an earlier post.

The NOAA graph below indicates that methane levels are growing at over 10 parts per billion per year, and this may actually underestimate global methane concentrations. The graph uses land-based measurements taken at sea level that can miss methane rising from the seafloor, especially from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, since there are few measuring stations in the Arctic in the first place. Land-based measurements can additionally overlook methane that is moving along the Tropopause from the Arctic toward the Equator.

Ominously, the image below shows high methane levels at Barrow, Alaska, at the end of January 2020.

Rising CO₂ levels are also worrying. A daily average CO₂ level of 415.79 ppm was recorded by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, on January 21, 2020, a level that is unprecedented for millions of years. Since an annual peak is typically reached in May, we can expect even higher levels over the coming months.

It's not just at Mauna Loa that such high CO₂ readings were recorded recently. The image below shows CO₂ levels recorded recent;y at Barrow, Alaska.

Fires in Australia have contributed to these high CO₂ levels. The image below shows smoke plumes from fires in Australia on January 4, 2020.

Such fires can generate huge amounts of smoke, with smoke rising up high in the atmosphere and entering the stratosphere, while circumnavigating Earth. The ferocity of these fires is also shown in the NASA video below.

In the video below, Guy McPherson gives examples of species that went extinct rapidly.

Meanwhile, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has moved the Doomsday Clock closer to Midnight, to 100 seconds to Midnight, adding that Civilization-ending nuclear war—whether started by design, blunder, or simple miscommunication—is a genuine possibility. Climate change that could devastate the planet is undeniably happening. And for a variety of reasons that include a corrupted and manipulated media environment, democratic governments and other institutions that should be working to address these threats have failed to rise to the challenge. Faced with a daunting threat landscape and a new willingness of political leaders to reject the negotiations and institutions that can protect civilization over the long term, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Science and Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock 20 seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse than ever. 

The image below, created with thebulletin.org content and data from 1991 to 2020, has a linear trend added that points at Midnight by 2022.

The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Extinction in 2020?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/12/extinction-in-2020.html

• NOAA Global Climate Report - Annual 2019 - Monthly temperature anomalies versus El Niño
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913/supplemental/page-2

• Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019 - by Lijing Chang et al.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-9283-7

• 2020 El Nino could start 18°C temperature rise
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/11/2020-el-nino-could-start-18-degree-temperature-rise.html

• Near-Term Human Extinction
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/04/near-term-human-extinction.html

• NOAA Global CH4 Monthly Means
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4

• Methane Erupting From Arctic Ocean Seafloor
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/03/methane-erupting-from-arctic-ocean-seafloor.html

• NASA: Global Transport of Smoke from Australian Bushfires
https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/science_snapshots/2020/Australia_fires_smoke.php

• NASA: Global Transport of Australian Bushfire Smoke
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/202/global-transport-of-australian-bushfire-smoke

• Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/past-statements/

• Doomsday by 2021?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/doomsday-by-2021.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

Critical Tipping Point Crossed In July 2019

In July 2019, a critical tipping point was crossed. July sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere were 1.07°C above what they were during the 20th century, as illustrated by above image which has a trend added that points at 5°C above the 20th century by 2033.

Why is 1°C above 20th century's temperature such a critical tipping point for the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere? Let's first take a look at where global heating is going.



Oceans are absorbing over 90% of global heating, as illustrated by above image. Due to the high greenhouse gas levels resulting from people's emissions, oceans keep on getting hotter, and given oceans' huge heat-absorbing capacity, it has taken many years before this tipping point was crossed.

In July 2016, the tipping point was touched at 0.99°C. In July 2017, the July temperature anomaly was on the tipping point, at exactly 1°C. In July 2018, the sea surface was a bit cooler, and the tipping point was crossed in July 2019 when the temperature anomaly was 1.07°C above the 20th century average.

Arctic sea ice used to absorb 0.8% of global heating (in 1993 to 2003). Ocean heat keeps flowing into the Arctic Ocean, carried by ocean currents, as illustrated by above image. As peak heat arrives in the Arctic Ocean, it melts sea ice from below.

The image below shows sea surface temperatures on August 13, 2019 (left) and on September 9, 2019 (right). The light blue line forms a line indicating the sea surface temperature there is 0°C. That light blue line has moved pole-ward in September, due to rivers that kept adding warm water and also due to more warmer water entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

As above image also shows, the sea surface near Svalbard was 20.4°C (or 68.7°F) at the area marked by the green circle on August 13, 2019 (left), and 20.3°C (or 68.5°F) on September 9, 2019 (right), indicating how high the temperature of the water can be underneath the surface, as it moves into the Arctic Ocean. In other words, further ocean heat is still entering the Arctic Ocean.

From mid August 2019, ocean heat could no longer find any sea ice to melt, since the thick sea ice that hangs underneath the surface had already disappeared. A thin layer of sea ice at the surface was all that remained, as air temperatures didn't come down enough to melt it from above.

This indicates that the buffer has gone that has until now been consuming ocean heat as part of the melting process. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

The image below, created with NOAA 2007-2019 June-August sea surface temperature data, shows how extra heating of the sea surface on the Northern Hemisphere from 2012 caused the buffer to disappear and the 1°C tipping point to be crossed in 2019.

Once the buffer is gone, further heat arriving in the Arctic Ocean must go elsewhere.

The image below illustrates the difference in extent between the years, as recorded by ads.nipr.ac.jp. On September 13, 1980, Arctic sea ice extent was 7.77 million km². On September 17, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.96 million km². On September 16, 2012, extent was 3.18 million  million km².

Arctic sea ice will soon be growing in extent, sealing off the water, meaning that less ocean heat will be able to escape to the atmosphere.

This situation comes at a time that methane levels are very high globally. Mean global methane levels were as high as 1911 parts per billion on September 3, 2019, as discussed in a recent post. This post, as well as many earlier posts, also discussed the danger that ocean heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and cause huge methane releases.

Ominously, methane levels at Barrow, Alaska, were very high recently, as illustrated by above image showing methane levels peaking at over 2500 parts per billion. The satellite image below shows the global situation on the afternoon of September 13, 2019, when peak methane levels as high as 2605 ppb were recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite at 586 mb.

In the videos below, Paul Beckwith discusses the situation.

Video 1: What’s up (down) with Arctic Sea-Ice: Extent, Thickness, Volume Dynamics and Thermodynamics

Video 2: New Ice Behaviour Regime for Arctic Sea Ice Melt

Video 3: Is Climate System Internal Variability Significantly Messing with Arctic Sea Ice Demise Predictions?

Video 4: Last Remaining Arctic Sea Ice Will Likely be that Orbiting the North Pole, and NOT Along Coastlines

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Arctic Sea Ice Gone By September 2019?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/arctic-sea-ice-gone-by-september-2019.html

• July 2019 Hottest Month On Record
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/july-2019-hottest-month-on-record.html

• Cyclone over Arctic Ocean - August 24, 2019
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/08/cyclone-over-arctic-ocean-august-24-2019.html

• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html

• Arctic Ocean overheating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/09/arctic-ocean-overheating.html

When Will We Die?

A rise of more than 5°C could happen within a decade, possibly by 2026. Humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In the light of this, we should act with integrity.

When will we die?

The outlook for people living now is that they will die before the end of the century. After all, even in more developed regions, people statistically die at an age below 75 years, as the image on the right illustrates.

The image calls up questions regarding possible shortening of life expectancy due to global heating.

A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right).

The first question therefore is whether and how fast such a rise could eventuate.

Furthermore, global heating projections for the year 2100 may seem rather irrelevant to many people, as they do not expect to be alive by the year 2100.

A second question therefore is what makes most sense, focusing on the year 2100, or on how much temperatures could rise over the next decade.

Clouds tipping point

A recent study points at a tipping point of 1,200 ppm CO₂e when marine stratus clouds start to disappear, resulting in an additional global heating of eight degrees Celsius (8°C or 14.4°F).

In other words, such a rise from clouds feedback would clearly suffice to cause extinction of most life on Earth.

Could this tipping point be crossed soon?

At its high-end, the A1F1 scenario used by the IPCC reaches a CO₂e level of 1550 ppm by the year 2100 (see screenshot below).

As discussed, the year 2100 is rather distant. The question is, could this 1,200 ppm CO₂e tipping point be crossed earlier, say, within one decade?

On May 15, 2019, scripps.ucsd.edu recorded a carbon dioxide level of 415.7 ppm at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. NOAA recorded a methane level of 1.867 ppm for December 2018. As shown at the FAQ page, methane is 150 times as potent as a greenhouse gas over the next ten years compared to carbon dioxide. Accordingly, this 1.867 ppm of methane causes global heating of 280.05 ppm CO₂e.

Seafloor methane

Imagine a burst of methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that would add an amount of methane to the atmosphere equal to twice the methane that is already there. Twice the 1.867 ppm of methane is 3.734 ppm, which at 150 times the potency of carbon dioxide translates into a CO₂e of 560.1 ppm.

Adding this to the current levels of carbon dioxide and methane results in a level of 1255.85 ppm CO₂e, well exceeding the 1,200 ppm CO₂e tipping point and thus triggering the extra 8°C rise.

Above image was created with content from a recent paper by Natalia Shakhova et al. It shows that the outlook is much more grim than many people realize.

Above image illustrates the danger, as an ominous sign of what's on the way. Methane levels as high as 2.975 ppm were recorded on June 11, 2019, at 469 mb. A peak this high is likely to have originated from the seafloor.

Above image shows a solid-colored magenta area over the ESAS that afternoon, further indicating that large amounts of methane did erupt earlier that day from destabilizing sediments in the ESAS.

Koalas declared functionally extinct

The Australian Koala Foundation has declared Koalas "functionally extinct". While there still are some 80,000 Koalas left, it is unlikely that Koalas will be able to escape full extinction for long.

Climate change-driven droughts and heat waves are causing dehydration and heat stress, leading to organ failure and premature death.

A rapid temperature rise could make virtually all species on Earth go extinct. As the above-mentioned study points out, even the most robust lifeforms on Earth will likely disappear with a 5°C rise, as species on which they depend will die.

Near Term Human Extinction

For mammals, which depend on a lot of other species, extinction is likely to come earlier.  When looking at near-term human extinction, a 3°C rise from preindustrial will likely suffice to cause extinction.

In 2019, the global temperature could already be 1.85°C above preindustrial and a rapid temperature rise could take place over the next few years.

A lot of good action is possible, as described in the Climate Plan, which offers the greatest amount of flexibility in local implementation, within the constraints of the need to act on climate change as acknowledged, e.g. at the Paris Agreement.

Nonetheless, humans likely are already functionally extinct, as is most life on Earth. This may come as a surprise to many people, but that shouldn't stop people from doing the right thing.

The above image reflects the joint CO₂e impact of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, there is the impact of further greenhouse gases, such as nitrous oxide and CFCs, as described in a recent post. There are more warming elements, such as albedo loss associated with the decline of the snow and ice cover. These warming elements could jointly push up the temperature rise to some 10°C above preindustrial, while the clouds feedback could add a further 8°C on top of that.

Sulfates do have a cooling effect, but this effect may fall away as society grinds to a halt and stops co-emitting sulfates alongside other emissions in the process of burning fuel, as Guy McPherson has pointed out repeatedly, e.g. in this recent post.

In the video below, recorded at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks on 4 April 2019, Guy McPherson explains how loss of habitat can lead to extinction of species and how global heating can lead to extinction of virtually all life on Earth.

Added below is a video edited by Tim Bob of Guy McPherson talking in Juneau, Alaska, in April, 2019.

In the video below, Examples of Rapid Extinction, Guy McPherson gives examples of species that went extinct rapidly in the past, warning that to rule out rapid extinction of humans would be foolish.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.


Links

• United Nations, world population prospects, 2017, Life expectancy
https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/popfacts/PopFacts_2017-9.pdf
https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2017-revision.html

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 (2007), Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html

• Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change, by Giovanni Strona and Corey Bradshaw (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming, by Tapio Schneider et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1

• FAQ #13: What is the global warming potential of methane?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/faq.html#13

• Methane hydrates
https://methane-hydrates.blogspot.com/2013/04/methane-hydrates.html

• Methane, measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) residing on the MetOp polar orbiting satellites
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi

• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html

• Greenhouse Gas Levels Keep Accelerating
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/05/greenhouse-gas-levels-keep-accelerating.html

• Stronger Extinction Alert
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/03/stronger-extinction-alert.html

• Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, by Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov and Evgeny Chuvilin
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/6/251

• Guy McPherson at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, April 2019
https://guymcpherson.com/2019/04/the-first-of-two-presentations-at-the-university-of-alaska-fairbanks/

• Guy McPherson in Juneau, Alaska, April 2019
https://guymcpherson.com/2019/05/presentation-in-juneau-alaska

• Seven Distinct Paths to Loss of Habitat for Humans, by Guy McPherson
https://weeklyhubris.com/seven-distinct-paths-to-loss-of-habitat-for-humans


Koalas

• Koala habitat 1788 versus 2018
From: savethekoala.com
https://www.savethekoala.com/our-work/act-or-axe

• A report claims koalas are ‘functionally extinct’ – but what does that mean?
https://theconversation.com/a-report-claims-koalas-are-functionally-extinct-but-what-does-that-mean-116665

• Australian Koala Foundation calls on the new Prime Minister to protect the Koala
https://www.savethekoala.com/sites/savethekoala.com/files/uploads/AKF_press_release_10_may_2019.pdf

• Koalas become 'Functionally Extinct' in Australia with just 80,000 left
https://www.ecowatch.com/koalas-functionally-extinct-australia-2637183484.html

• Koalas declared “functionally extinct”
https://inhabitat.com/koalas-declared-functionally-extinct

• Why the Heck Do So Many Koalas Have Chlamydia?
https://www.livescience.com/62517-how-koalas-get-chlamydia.html

Blue Ocean Event

Blue Ocean Event as part of four Arctic tipping points

What will be the consequences of a Blue Ocean Event, i.e. the disappearance of virtually all sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, as a result of the warming caused by people?

Paul Beckwith discusses some of the consequences in the video below. As long as the Arctic Ocean has sea ice, most sunlight gets reflected back into space and the 'Center-of-Coldness' remains near the North Pole, says Paul. With the decline of the sea ice, however, the 'Center-of-Coldness' will shift to the middle of Greenland. Accordingly, we can expect the jet streams to shift their center of rotation 17° southward, i.e. away from the North Pole towards Greenland, with profound consequences for our global weather patterns and climate system, for plants and animals, and for human civilization, e.g. our ability to grow food.

Also see Paul's video below, The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What?

Changing Winds

As global warming continues, the additional energy in the atmosphere causes stronger winds and higher waves.

As the Arctic warms up faster than the rest of the world, the jet streams are getting more out of shape, exacerbating extreme weather events.

The image on the right shows the jet stream crisscrossing the Arctic Ocean on September 10, 2018, with cyclonic wind patterns all over the place.

On the image below, Typhoon Mangkhut is forecast to cause waves as high as 21.39 m or 70.2 ft on September 14, 2018.

The inset on above image shows Typhoon Mangkhut forecast to cause winds to reach speeds as high as 329 km/h or 205 mph at 700 hPa (green circle), while Hurricane Florence is forecast to hit the coast of North Carolina, and is followed by Hurricane Isaac and Hurricane Helene in the Atlantic Ocean.

At 850 hPa, Typhoon Mangkhut reaches Instant Wind Power Density as high as 196.9 kW/m² on September 13, 2018, as illustrated by above image.

The situation is likely to get worse over the next few months, as this is only the start of the hurricane season and El Niño is strengthening, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The image below shows how the occurrence and strength of El Niño has increased over the decades.

Four Arctic Tipping Points

There are numerous feedbacks that speed up warming in the Arctic. In some cases, there are critical points beyond which huge changes will take place rather abruptly. In such cases, it makes sense to talk about tipping points.

1. The albedo tipping point

As Arctic sea ice gets thinner and thinner, a Blue Ocean Event looks more imminent every year. A Blue Ocean Event means that huge amounts of sunlight won't get reflected back into space anymore, as they previously were. Instead, the heat will have to be absorbed by the Arctic. 

At the other hemisphere, the sea ice around Antarctica is at its lowest extent for the time of the year, as illustrated by above image. Global sea ice extent is also at its lowest for the time of the year, as illustrated by the image below.

A Blue Ocean Event will not only mean that additional heat will have to be absorbed in the Arctic, but also that wind patterns will change radically and even more dramatically than they are already changing now, which will also make that other tipping points will be reached earlier. This is why a Blue Ocean Event is an important tipping point and it will likely be reached abruptly and disruptively.

2. The latent heat tipping point

Disappearance of the sea ice north of Greenland is important in this regard. The image on the right shows that most sea ice at the end of August 2018 was less than 1 meter thick.

The image below shows how the sea ice has been thinning recently north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, an area once covered with the thickest multi-year sea ice. Disappearance of sea ice from this area indicates that we're close to or beyond the latent heat tipping point, i.e. the point where further ocean heat can no longer be consumed by the process of melting the sea ice.

[ The once-thickest sea ice has gone - click on images to enlarge ]

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. Without sea ice, additional ocean heat will have to go somewhere else.

Above image shows how much sea surface temperatures in the Arctic have warmed, compared to 1961-1990. The image also shows the extent of the sea ice (white). In the image below, a large area has changed from sea ice to water twelve days later, showing how thin and fragile the sea ice is and how easily it can disappear as the water continues to warm.

As the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, changes have been taking place to the jet streams on the Northern Hemisphere that make it easier for warm air and water to move into the Arctic. This means that warm water is increasingly entering the Arctic Ocean that can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below.

Arctic sea ice extent has remained relatively large this year, since air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean have been relatively low in June and July 2018. At the same time, ocean heat keeps increasing, so a lot of heat is now accumulating underneath the surface of the Arctic Ocean.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

3. Seafloor Methane Tipping Point

As said above, Arctic sea ice has been getting thinner dramatically over the years, and we are now near or beyond the latent heat tipping point.

[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

This year, air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean were relatively low in June and July 2018, and this has kept Arctic sea ice extent larger than it would otherwise have been. As a result, a lot of heat has been accumulating underneath the surface of the Arctic Ocean and this heat cannot escape to the atmosphere and it can no longer be consumed by melting. Where will the heat go?

As the temperature of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, more heat threatens to reach sediments at its seafloor that have until now remained frozen. Contained in these sediments are huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas.

Melting of the ice in these sediments then threatens to unleash huge eruptions of seafloor methane that has been kept locked up in the permafrost for perhaps millions of years. Seafloor methane constitutes a third tipping point.

The image on the right features a trend based on WMO data. The trend shows that mean global methane levels could cross 1900 ppb in 2019.

Ominously, methane recently reached unprecedented levels. Peak levels as high as 3369 ppb on August 31, 2018, as shown by the image below on the right.

The next image on the right below shows that mean global levels were as high as 1905 ppb on September 3, 2018.

The third image below on the right may give a clue regarding the origin of these unprecedented levels.

More methane will further accelerate warming, especially in the Arctic, making that each of the tipping points will be reached earlier.

Less sea ice will on the one hand make that more heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, but on the other hand the albedo loss and the additional water vapor will at the same time cause the Arctic Ocean to absorb more heat, with the likely net effect being greater warming of the Arctic Ocean.

Additionally, more heat is radiated from sea ice into space than from open water (feedback #23).

How much warming could result from the decline of snow and ice cover in the Arctic?

As discussed, there will be albedo changes, there will be changes to the jet streams, and there will be further feedbacks, adding up to 1.6°C of additional global warming that could eventuate due to snow and ice decline and associated changes in the Arctic.

A further 1.1°C of warming or more could result from releases of seafloor methane over the next few years.

4. Terrestrial Permafrost Tipping Point

Additional warming of the Arctic will also result in further warming due to numerous feedbacks such as more water vapor getting into the atmosphere. Furthermore, more intense heatwaves can occur easier in the Arctic due to changes to jet streams. All this will further accelerate melting of the ice in lakes and in soils on land that was previously known as permafrost. This constitutes a fourth tipping point that threatens to add huge amounts of additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Until now, the permafrost was held together by ice. As the ice melts, organic material in the soil and at the bottom of lakes starts to decompose. The land also becomes increasingly vulnerable to landslides, sinkholes and wildfires. All his can result in releases of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, soot, etc., which in turn causes further warming, specifically over the Arctic.

In total, a temperature rise of 10°C threatens to occur in as little as a few years time.

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan.



Links

• Jet Stream Center-of-Rotation to Shift 17 degrees Southward from North Pole to Greenland with Arctic Blue Ocean Event
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFme3C9e-cs

• It could be unbearably hot in many places within a few years time
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/07/it-could-be-unbearably-hot-in-many-places-within-a-few-years-time.html

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Albedo and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Warning of mass extinction of species, including humans, within one decade
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/02/warning-of-mass-extinction-of-species-including-humans-within-one-decade.html

• How much warming have humans caused?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html

• The Threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html