Saturday, September 8, 2012

Update on September Arctic cyclone

By Paul Beckwith, 
edited by Sam Carana

The loss of Arctic sea ice appears to be flattening out at the moment. The above image shows Arctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for the last 7 years, compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany.

Paul Beckwith, B.Eng, M.Sc. (Physics),
Ph. D. student (Climatology) and
Part-time Professor, University of Ottawa
However, Paul Beckwith warns that Hurricane Leslie looks set to capture Hurricane Michael just off the Canadian maritimes and strongly impact Nova Scotia and Newfoundland (large hurricane), to then continue northward and start to affect Arctic climate by compressing isobars creating large pressure gradients and thus high winds.

Paul points at the image below, from, showing a 9 day GFSx model for Arctic region.

The model shows that an Arctic cyclone is amplified as a result of Leslie and a strong high pressure ridge is also generated over the Beaufort Sea. As the Arctic cyclone decreases in strength a strong cyclone is generated over Alaska.

“Needless to say this scenario would be very destructive to Arctic sea ice if it plays out,” Paul adds.  “Also, there is no apparent decrease in Arctic sea surface temperatures in projections out to September 12th, and no apparent salinity change. I will be amazed if this melt season does not last until the end of September or even into early October.”

View Paul Beckwith's September 8 presentation by clicking on the following link:

Or, view the presentation in the window below (it may take some time for the file to fully load).

1 comment:

  1. The way storm like Hurricane Leslie starts track across Atlantic to make great sweep upward to the North and likely join up with storm circulation in Arctic is something on a scale not likely seen before. It's due to sea ice loss in Arctic induced by fossil fuel use of man that this can now occur.. It doesn't bode well for Earth's chances of reversing global warming even with all our efforts put to trying to stop the transition that's happening..

    Hate to think what is in store when methane from Shallow continental shelf of Arctic Sea starts to hit surface en mass. Seems like the lessening of heat differential between high latitudes and the equator is likely to cause maybe conjoining of storms previously unable to really happen.