Arctic News

Monday, February 24, 2025

Mechanisms behind a steep rise in temperature

The image below shows the temperature rise from end 2022 through February 28, 2025, with trends added.

The shading in the above image reflects the presence of El Niño conditions (pink shading) that push up temperatures, La Niña conditions (blue shading) that suppress temperatures, or neutral conditions (gray shading). Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend that shows a steady rise of about 0.5°C over the three years from end 2022 to end 2025.

This rise of 0.5°C over just 3 years (black linear trend in above image) is a much steeper rise than the black linear trend in the image below, which shows a rise of 1.1°C over the 81 years from 1941 to 2022.

As said, the recent rise in temperature depicted by the black linear trend in the image at the top is much steeper than the rise from 1941-2022 in the above image. The image at the top also features a red trend that warns that an even steeper rise could occur soon, as a result of the joint impact of at least ten mechanisms.

1. ENSO changes - a transition away from the current La Niña conditions.

2. Sunspots - higher than expected and reaching their peak in the current cycle in July 2025.

3. Cooling aerosols - being reduced.

4. Earth's Energy Imbalance - very high and rising, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Image from Berkeley Earth: Earth's Energy Imbalance is accelerating the temperature rise ]

5. Greater albedo loss - as a result of sea ice loss and loss of lower clouds.

The above image is from Berkeley Earth and also features in an earlier post, illustrating the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise and thus also in reducing lower clouds.

A Blue Ocean Event can be declared when sea ice area falls to a low of 1 million km² or less. As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice area was 1.22 million km² on February 28, 2025, almost as low as the 1.05 million km² recorded on February 22, 2023, raising alarms that a Double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2025, i.e. both for the Antarctic sea ice and for the Arctic sea ice.

The image below illustrates that the global sea ice area is currently very low, resulting in less sunlight getting reflected back into space and more heat getting absorbed at the surface instead.

The Arctic melt season looks set to start with the lowest Arctic sea ice area on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Arctic sea ice extent, click to enlarge ]

For comparison, the image from NSIDC on the right shows Arctic sea ice extent. On March 1, 2025, Arctic extent was 13.904 million km².

The combination of record low daily global sea ice and record low daily Arctic sea ice threatens a Blue Ocean Event to occur in the Arctic later this year.

Additional albedo loss occurs due to thawing of permafrost and retreat of glaciers, and - as said - due to loss of lower clouds as temperatures rise.

6. More water vapor - as the temperature rise from pre-industrial turns out to be higher.

[ from an earlier post ]

The above image illustrates that the February 2024 temperature was potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial. A much higher rise from pre-industrial than the rise mentioned in the IPCC assessment reports would come with much more water vapor in the atmosphere. A 2.75°C rise corresponds with almost ⅕ more water vapor in the atmosphere, since 7% more water vapor will be in the atmosphere for every 1°C warming. Extra water vapor will further amplify the temperature rise, since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. The image below shows high precipitable water anomalies over the Arctic Ocean on February 26, 2025.

7. Ocean changes - it becomes increasingly hard for ocean heat to reach deeper parts of the ocean, due to stratification and due to changes in ocean currents, resulting in more heat accumulating at the surface instead.

This mechanism is discussed in this 2024 post and also on facebook in posts such as this one, this one and in this one.

[ from earlier post ]

Furthermore, slowdown of the Atlantic and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation and increased stratification lead to depletion of nutrients (in particular phosphorus) in the ocean's top layer, in turn decreasing phytoplankton growth and thus decreasing oxygen production and carbon sequestration, as a recent study confirms.

Additionally, deoxygenation occurs as temperature rise, since warm water holds less oxygen than cold water. Oxygen is used by methanotroph bacteria to oxidize methane that is rising up from the seafloor, so less oxygen also increases methane entering the atmosphere.

8. Latent heat buffer loss - as sea ice, permafrost and glaciers disappear.

Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when ice turns into water. During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. As long as there is ice, additional heat will be absorbed by the process of ice turning into water, so the temperature doesn't rise at the surface.

[ from Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more ]

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. The energy required to melt a volume of ice can raise the temperature of the same volume of rock by as much as 150ºC.

Warmer water flowing into the Arctic Ocean causes Arctic sea ice to lose thickness and thus volume, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. This means that - as sea ice thickness decreases - a lot of incoming ocean heat can no longer be consumed by melting the sea ice from below, and the heat will therefore contribute to higher temperatures of the water of the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, there is a point beyond which thawing of permafrost on land and melting of glaciers can no longer consume heat, and all further heat will instead warm up the surface.

[ from earlier post ]

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

The image on the right shows Arctic sea ice volume through March 2, 2025. The image shows that Arctic sea ice volume in 2024 and 2025 to date has been much lower than in previous years.

More incoming heat therefore threatens to reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, in turn threatening increased loss of permafrost, resulting in additional emissions.

The danger is especially large in the Arctic, which contains huge amounts of methane and which is hit most strongly by the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below.

9. More emissions from the environment - as sinks turn into sources, and as there are more emissions from methane hydrate eruptions, from thawing permafrost, from flooded areas, and from fires (including fires in forests, peatland, grassland, urban waste in backyards and landfills, and fires in buildings, especially in warehouses containing flammable materials and chemicals), as temperatures keep rising.

10. More emissions from human action and inaction - as more people start to realize how dire the situation is and as they seek to occupy the most habitable areas left.

A recent analysis estimates that just the emissions from the war in Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion rival the annual emissions of four European nations combined (i.e. Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia). More emissions may also result from more biofuel and wood getting burned in vehicles, heaters and power plants, as it becomes harder to obtain fossil fuel and as the grid shuts down, due to conflicts and people no longer showing up for work.

Ominously, very high temperature anomalies are forecast over the Arctic Ocean for November 2025.

[ Very high temperature anomalies forecast over Arctic Ocean, from earlier post ]

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu

• Berkeley Earth - Global Temperature Report for 2024

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024

• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023?

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html

• Sea ice loss
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/02/sea-ice-loss.html

• Kevin Pluck - seaice.visuals.earth
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center) - Arctic sea ice extent
https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Arctic Ocean Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2017/01/arctic-ocean-feedbacks.html

• Observed declines in upper ocean phosphate-to-nitrate availability - by Skylar Gerace et al. (2025)
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411835122

discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162337919869679

• Oxygenating the Arctic

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/oxygenating-arctic.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Arctic and Antarctic Data Archive System (ADS) of the National Institute of Polar Research of Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Forest fires push up greenhouse gas emissions from war in Ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/forest-fires-push-up-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-war-in-ukraine

• Climate damage caused by Russia's war in Ukraine in three years – the key numbers

https://en.ecoaction.org.ua/climate-damage-3-years-numbers.html

• Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Friday, February 21, 2025

Congestion Pricing in New York

Since January 5, 2025, vehicles are being tolled to enter the Congestion Relief Zone in Manhattan South, New York, under the Congestion Pricing Program of the City of New York.

On February 19, 2025, the federal government, through the Department of Transportation, stated its disapproval of the program. A WhiteHouse social media post shows a TIME magazine-style cover featuring Trump wearing a crown with the text 'Congestion pricing is dead. Long live the king!'

In a news release, Governor Kathy Hochul and MTA Chair and CEO Janno Lieber respond. 'This is an attack on our sovereign identity, our independence from Washington. This is what we fought for: To set up a system where we are not subservient to a king or anyone else out of Washington. So this is the fight we're in. It's all about our sovereignty', says Kathy Hochul.

The War for Independence from the British Monarchy ended in 1783 by the Treaty of Paris, in which 'His Brittanic Majesty' acknowledges the United States to be free sovereign and Independent States. This was followed by the United States Constitution, which in its first three words – 'We The People' – affirms that the government of the United States exists to serve its citizens, while it also separates the government into three branches to prevent any one branch from becoming too powerful.

'It's mystifying that after four years of environmental study, a 4,000 page environmental review, that the US DOT would seek to reverse course', Janno Lieber adds in the news release. 'We are doing a thoughtful, local solution. I thought the Republican Party was in favor of local control.'

Indeed, reality can and should compel any government, whatever its ideological background, to look for and adopt policies that are in line with best available science. This constitutes a necessity that, where there appears to be a conflict, must overrule even what the Supreme Court, the President or Congress may decree, something so obvious that people didn't see a need for it to be enshrined in the Constitution.

In summary, policies can best be adopted with a preference for local communities working out the implementation, as said, provided this occurs in line with best available science. Below is a flowchart showing how climate action can be achieved without politicians.

[ from an earlier post ]

The disregard for science and democracy by many politicians has now become so apparent and appalling that we, the people, must now implement a superior form of democracy and decision-making, i.e. for local areas to develop sets of local feebates and to institute Local People's Courts in which randomly-chosen residents deliver verdicts to ensure that policies are in line with best available science. Where needed, progress with climate action should be supported by a Climate Emergency Declaration.

Climate Emergency Declaration

Links

• Metropolitan Transportation Authority - Congestion Relief Zone

https://congestionreliefzone.mta.info

• City of New York - Congestion Pricing Program

https://portal.311.nyc.gov/article/?kanumber=KA-03612

• News release - by Kathy Hochul and Janno Lieber

https://www.mta.info/press-release/transcript-governor-hochul-and-mta-chair-and-ceo-lieber-update-new-yorkers-congestion

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Global warming to blame for low temperatures in North America

A temperature of -40°C (-39.9°F) was recorded at the circle on February 19, 2025 14:00 UTC, as illustrated by the above image.

What made this possible?

Temperature anomalies were very high in January 2025 in the Arctic, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Arctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year. Temperatures of the water in the Arctic Ocean have been very high, resulting in very low sea ice volume, as illustrated by the image underneath on the right.

Arctic amplification of global warming at times causes the Jet Stream to become very wavy, enabling cold air from the Arctic to spread over deep over continents (i.e. North America, Asia and Europe).

At the same time, a more wavy Jet Stream enables more heat to abruptly move north from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, threatening to cause destabilization of methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

More extreme weather

Global warming is causing more extreme weather events all around the world, and as temperatures keep rising, these events look set to become more extreme, i.e. hitting larger areas for longer, with higher frequency and greater intensity.

[ from earlier post ]

The image below shows a deformed Jet Stream (lines show wind pattern) forecast for February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC, with high relative humidity at 250 hPa (left) and a 3-hour precipitation accumulation of 55.2 mm forecast at the green circle (right).

The image below shows temperature anomalies (°F) forecast for February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC over North America.

The image below shows a forecast of the actual temperature (°F) on February 20, 2025 12:00 UTC over North America.

The image below shows a temperature of -1.2° C (29.9°F) that is forecast to hit New Orleans (circle) on February 20,2025 13:00 UTC.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - Understanding the Arctic polar vortex
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-arctic-polar-vortex
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162311831389679

• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Should people be told?

The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at.

China is important, it has a large well-educated population and a large part of global emissions is released in China. Some countries face even more dire prospects. Have people been told how dire the situation is? The general lack of climate action around the world suggests that people have not been sufficiently informed. Moreover, many scientists, journalists, judges, politicians and civil servants bluntly refuse to inform people.

[ from earlier post ]

[ Top: Extreme risk impact, adapted from Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk (2025).
Bottom: 5.163°C rise, climatereanalyzer.org image, from earlier post ]

The image below shows the January 2025 temperature anomaly, compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base.

The image below shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 19 consecutive months (July 2023 through January 2025). The anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).

Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.

While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.33°C on February 11, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to and based on the data, despite La Niña.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?

La Niña conditions are currently present. The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.

[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.

[ temperature anomaly through January 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ]

Despite the presence of La Niña, temperatures keep rising. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows a NOAA forecast dated February 13, 2025.

The potential for a huge temperature rise within a few months time

Earth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.

There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. Furthermore, the temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents that could cause extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration and area covered, and oceans to take up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time.

According to an earlier analysis, the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is?

Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

[ from earlier post ]

The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.

Antarctic sea ice is moving toward 1 million km² in area, a threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be declared in the Southern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

Researchers on board the ship Sarmiento de Gamboa recently observed columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide. Researchers looked for leaks on the edges of Antarctica, according to a recent news report. “We have estimated that in this area there are some 24 gigatons of carbon accumulated in methane hydrates”, warns Roger Urgeles, of the Institute of Marine Sciences, based in Barcelona, leaders of the expedition.

An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event alone would dramatically increase Earth's Heat Imbalance. The combination of low sea ice area around Antarctica and in the Arctic looks set to cause a dramatic temperature rise over the coming months.

[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ]

Persistently low global sea ice area therefore also threatens a Blue Ocean Event to occur in the Arctic later this year.

Ominously, Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing Arctic sea ice volume on February 15, 2025.

An Arctic Blue Ocean Event threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing eruptions of huge amounts of methane, with the resulting temperature rise in the Arctic causing permafrost on land to thaw strongly and abruptly, in turn causing additional greenhouse gas releases.

The above image shows methane as high as 2561 ppb at 399.1 mb recorded by the N21 satellite on February 5, 2025 am.

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]

The stacked bar chart on the right includes (at the bottom) a potential 2.29°C for the rise in temperature from pre-industrial to 2020.

A rise of 0.5°C is included for the additional CO₂ released through 2026 and for the rising impact of the recently emitted CO₂. Note that the chart was first conceived in 2016, so the impact of the CO₂ released from 2016 to today has meanwhile already eventuated.

Changes in aerosols are given the potential for a 1.9°C rise due to reductions in cooling aerosols (mainly sulfate), while a 0.6°C rise is included due to additional warming gases and aerosols.

In the bar chart, a potential rise of 1.6°C is reached by the end of 2026 as a result of snow and ice loss and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents.

An additional 1.1°C is reached as a result of eruption of methane from the seafloor, while additional greenhouse gas emissions result in a 0.35°C rise.

The temperature rise itself triggers further feedbacks such as an increase of water vapor in the atmosphere (2.1°C) and loss of lower clouds (8°C). Altogether, the rise could reach 18.44°C by the end of 2026. Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. at the extinction page. Note the above-mentioned warning that humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.