Further Confirmation of a Probable Arctic Sea Ice Loss by Late 2015

By Malcolm P.R. Light
1st September, 2012


Executive Summary

The Arctic sea ice maintains the cold of the polar region and acting like the Earth's air conditioner it helps moderate climate with the oceans and the atmosphere rebalancing the heat on the planet (Rice 2012; Speer 2012). Each year the Arctic sea ice melts in the summer reaching its smallest extent in September and reaches it largest extent in March (Rice 2012). At the end of August 2012, the Arctic sea ice reached it lowest extent that has ever been recorded (Vizcarra, 2012) due to the increasing input of globally warmed Gulf Stream waters into the Arctic generating what is now termed a death spiral for the floating Arctic sea ice (Romm 2012; Morison 2012). In the IPCC fourth assessment report in 2007 it was predicted that the Arctic would become ice free at the end of this Century, while more recent estimates suggested that the ice would melt by 2030 or in this decade (Romm 2012). Piomas ice volume melt data indicates that by 2015 the Arctic sea ice cap will be gone (Carana 2012d; Masters, 2009) and this paper confirms the accuracy of the Piomas estimate.

The intersection point of the converging envelopes of the varying amplitude of the monthly 11 year moving average of the Giss maximum surface temperature anomaly represents a time after which the variable effect caused by the latent heat of melting and freezing of the worlds Polar sea ice caps will be eliminated, i.e. the time when the Arctic floating sea ice cap will be completely melted away (Figure 10). The best estimate of the time when we will lose the the Arctic floating sea ice cap is 2015.757 (October 2) which is the mean yearly intersection point calculated from the 12 convergent monthly data sets (Figure 10. anomaly temperature 6.8762 degrees C). The 2015.757 best estimate for the complete loss of Arctic floating sea is almost identical to the 2015 date suggested by Piomass ice volume reduction data (Carana 2012d) and is within its 90% confidence interval error limit. The date range for the intersection points of the converging data set runs from 2011.363 (Figure 4. July anomaly temperature 6.7079 degrees C) to 2022.989 (Figure 9. June anomaly temperature 7.1414 degrees C).

The normal high July temperatures of the Arctic ocean region including the major heated rivers feeding the surrounding Siberian shelf regions are an important factor in destabilization of the shallower methane hydrate accumulations and the eruption of methane into the Arctic atmosphere and stratosphere at that time (Shakova et al. 2008, 2010; Light 2012). In the normal July summer hot period the Gulf Stream is heated to some 26.5 degrees C in the Atlantic (Figure 22a,b). This has been found to be followed by a subsequent anomalous hot period in late October - November caused by the high global warming potential of methane clouds which have been erupted into the Arctic atmosphere and make their way up into the global stratosphere (Figure 23). The stratospheric build up of methane between about 30 km and 47 km altitude forms a continuous methane global warming veil which is then spread by stratospheric vortices ESE across Russia, Europe the Atlantic and the Americas into the Pacific and Southern Hemisphere where it enhances both the pollution heated Gulf Stream on the east coast of the United States/Canada and the El-Nino in the Pacific (Figure 23). This secondary thermal anomaly caused by the extreme methane eruptions in late October - November is termed a False Indian Summer (FIS) and it will grow in strength, depth and duration as the methane eruptions escalate exponentially in the Arctic emission centres because of the increased heating of the subsea methane hydrates by the summer warmed Gulf Stream (Intermediate Depth) current (Figures 19, 20a,b and 22a,b).

The stratospheric methane global warming veil completes a complex convection cycle in the earths atmosphere and oceans in exactly the same way that a giant forest fire will draw in cooler winds which will amplify the flames with the heated air rising, cooling and increasing in density aloft so that it sinks back to the ground away from the fire site to be drawn back again to re-enhance the flames further. In the case of the Gulf Stream where global warming induced by the pollution clouds blowing off the east coast of the United States/Canada warms the Atlantic waters in the summer to 26.5 degrees C (Figure 22b), the heat is then trapped in the Gulf Stream which migrates north east to the Arctic in October November where it destabilizes the subsea methane hydrates along the south east slope of the Eurasian basin/Laptev Sea transition and forms an extreme atmospheric methane eruption centre (Figure 20a,b).

The US/Canada pollution clouds which globally overheat the Gulf Stream also show a second complete complex energy convection cycle caused by a southern offshoot
of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic that swings SE toward the warm waters of the western coast of Africa, the spawning grounds of Hurricane systems in the Eastern Atlantic (Wales, 2012). These hurricanes then make their way to the NW towards the Gulf Coast/Florida, the source of the warmed Gulf Stream, causing increasing devastation on their way across the Caribbean islands and the US/Canada coastline. Both the stratospheric methane global warming veil and the Hurricane tracks are simply the closing stages of complex heat convection cycles returning back to the original energy source (the pollution clouds blowing off the east coast of the US/Canada) increased volumes of heat energy. The global warming effects of these pollution clouds will be enhanced even further by methane being injected into the Arctic atmospheric convection cycles producing an escalating exponential growth in the heat input into atmosphere and ocean, intensifying the resulting climatic devastation and giving us an early warming of our impending extinction within the next 50 years.

Sea ice crashes - AMEG was right

AMEG was right to warn the world that without action the sea ice would collapse. The world now is in a dire state and only immediate drastic action can cool the Arctic and hold off catastrophe. 

The image below is an edit from a larger image, illustrating the dramatic fall of the sea ice over the past few weeks and showing Arctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for the last 7 years, and compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany. 

Read more at 'The biggest story of all time' and the AMEG news release at the AMEG blog. Comments are welcome! 

Sea ice area falls below 2.5 million square km

Arctic sea ice area has fallen below 2.5 million square km. 

Sea ice area was 2.48831 million square km on the 242nd day of 2012, as shown on the image below by The Cryosphere Today.  

Sea ice area was 13.70851 million square km on the 88th day of 2012. That's a loss of 11.2202 million square km, or about 82%.  And there's still quite a few days to go in the melting season.   

Paul Beckwith on ice speed and drift - update 1

Above image shows Arctic sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for the last 7 years, compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany.

View Paul Beckwith's August 30 presentation on sea ice speed and drift by clicking on the following link:
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByLujhsHsxP7VTlsczIyalpjNDQ/edit


Or, view the presentation in the window below (it may take some time for the file to fully load).