Showing posts sorted by date for query methane plume. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query methane plume. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Friday, October 4, 2024

Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2025. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2025. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2025 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

Arctic sea ice volume

In September 2024, Arctic sea ice reached a new record low volume, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, with markers for September (red) and April (blue) corresponding with the year's minimum- and maximum volume.


Trends could be added pointing at Arctic sea ice approaching zero volume soon; even more worrying, tipping points could be crossed and speed up the temperature rise beyond a smooth curve. Feedbacks are typically seen as increasing the temperature gradually and smoothly, either in a linear or non-linear way. Feedbacks are mechanisms, but there are also mechanisms that act more abruptly.

Indeed, some mechanisms can have a more abrupt impact. Sea ice could shrink strongly and rapidly as a (tipping) point is reached where the latent heat buffer disappears abruptly and as further incoming ocean heat suddenly can no longer be consumed by melting of what once was thick sea ice that extended meters below the surface. Arctic sea ice typically reached its annual low about half September, but an abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice may well occur earlier than that. Sea ice may melt strongly, and large pieces of sea ice may additionally get pushed out of the Arctic Basin by strong winds. Large and rapid loss of Arctic sea ice may therefore well occur in July 2025 or even earlier, as the latent heat tipping point gets crossed and additional mechanisms further contribute to increase the temperature.

Antarctic Sea ice extent

Antarctic sea ice extent has passed its maximum for the year, and looks set for a steep decline, in line with seasonal changes.

On October 11, 2024, Antarctic sea ice was more than 1 million km² lower in extent than on October 11, 2022, and almost 3 million km² lower in extent than a decade ago, as illustrated by the image below.


Antarctic sea ice extent was 
16.757 million km² on October 11, 2024 
17.926 million km² on October 11, 2022 
19.412 million km² on October 11, 2014

This difference indicates that extent may fall below 1 million km² in February 2025. 

As illustrated by the image below, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.976 million on February 25, 2022, so 1 million km² less extent than that would result in a Blue Ocean Event early next year. A Blue Ocean Event is deemed to occur when the sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less. 

Low Antarctic sea ice extent is a tipping point, as sea ice thickness by February 2025 can be expected to be minimal, resulting in no further ocean heat getting consumed by sea ice below the surface. So, there would be less sunlight getting reflected back into space for months and by February 2025 there would no longer be thicker sea ice that previously consumed incoming ocean heat, and both of these mechanisms are further increasing temperatures.

Note also that Antarctic sea ice extent looks set for a steep decline, the more so as the impact of less sunlight getting reflected will increase over the coming months as more sunlight reaches the Southern Hemisphere, in line with seasonal changes. Albedo changes hit Antarctic sea ice in particular, as it is located at higher latitudes than Arctic sea ice, which is located mostly around the North Pole.

As the image below illustrates, the Antarctic Sea ice extent minimum was well below 2 million km² in each of the past three years.

Minimum annual Antarctic sea ice extent was:
1.976 million km² on February 25, 2022
1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023
1.985 million km² on February 20, 2024

The image below highlights Antarctic sea ice extent in the months September and October, showing NSIDC data from 2010 through October 30, 2024.

As above image shows, Antarctic sea ice extent in September and October 2023 & 2024 was much lower than in previous years, a huge difference that occurred during a period when little or no sunlight was reaching Antarctic sea ice. 

So, what mechanisms caused this huge difference?

Since little or no sunlight reaches the area around Antarctica at this time of year, sea surface albedo changes (i.e. changes from sea ice to water) or albedo changes of clouds over the sea surface are unlikely to contribute much (yet) to this huge difference.

Changes in wind patterns and changes in oceans (temperature, currents, vertical mixing and stratification) can make a lot of difference and so can changes in emissivity, a feedback that is active throughout the entire year. Mechanisms that are contributing to the demise of the snow and ice cover (and thus are contributing to the temperature rise) are discussed point by point further below in this post.  

Global sea ice extent at record low for time of year

Rising global temperatures go hand in hand with lower global sea ice extent. On October 30, 2024, global sea ice extent was 23.27 million km², a record low for the time of year and well below 2023 at this time of year. This record low global sea ice extent is in turn accelerating the rise in global temperatures. Global sea ice typically reaches its maximum extent around this time of year, due to rapid expansion of Arctic sea ice extent. 


Antarctic Sea ice thickness and volume

The images by University of Bremen below show sea ice thickness on August 27, 2024 (left), September 29, 2024 (center) and October 28, 2024 (right). The fall in sea ice thickness also indicates that Antarctic sea ice volume is decreasing. 

Temperatures keep rising

Temperature anomalies were high in September 2024, while there have been ENSO-neutral conditions since May 2024 through September 2024. Parts of Antarctic sea ice were hit by very high anomalies, of over 10°C, while very little sunlight is yet reaching Antarctic sea ice in September. 


The image below, adapted from Copernicus, illustrates that for most of the year, temperatures in 2024 have been higher than in 2023. The temperature was 15.06°C on October 24, 2024, a record high for the time of year. 


The image below, based on ERA5 data from early 2023 through October 29, 2024, indicates that, overall, temperature anomalies have been rising strongly since the start of El Niño, a rise that has continued during ENSO-neutral conditions into La Niña. 


Note that the above temperature anomalies are calculated from 1991-2020, which isn't pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, the anomalies will be a lot higher.


The above image, created with NASA data through September 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomaly has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 15 months, and even more when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows the trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with the rapid recent rise.

Mechanisms accelerating the temperature rise

Emissions by people are driving up temperatures and, as temperatures rise, feedbacks can accelerate the rise. The image below illustrates the mechanism of how multiple feedbacks can jointly accelerate the temperature rise.


[ from earlier post ]

As illustrated by the image below, there are at least seven mechanisms that can accelerate the rise in surface temperatures, and thus in turn accelerating sea ice decline.


Each of these seven mechanisms are feedbacks that are also described at the feedback page and in earlier posts. These seven mechanisms are grouped together here since they all relate to changes in snow and ice cover, changes in oceans and changes in wind patterns, i.e. the orange part of the stacked bar chart at the conclusion of this article. In other words, as temperatures rise on the Southern Hemisphere, these seven mechanisms could contribute to dramatic sea ice loss around Antarctica over the next few months. The are described below in more detail:

1. latent heat buffer loss  ➭  less heat gets consumed by melting (feedback #14)

Sea ice constitutes a buffer that consumes ocean heat; the temperature of the water will not rise as long as there is ice, but once all ice has melted, further heat will raise the temperature of the water. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.

[ Latent heat ]

2. sea ice changing into dark ocean  ➭  less sunlight is reflected (feedback #1)
Water covered by snow and ice can reflect as much as 90% of the sunlight back into space, absorbing only 10%. By contrast, water without snow and ice can absorb as much as 94% of sunlight, with as little as 6% reflected back into space.  
A study by Duspayev et al. (2024) finds that global sea ice has lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, and the implied global sea ice albedo feedback is 0.24–0.38 W m⁻² K⁻¹.

3. less sea ice  ➭  less outward radiation (feedback #23)

A 2014 study finds significantly lower values of far-IR emissivity for ocean surfaces than for sea ice and snow, leading to a decrease in surface emission at far-IR wavelengths, reduced cooling to space, and warmer radiative surface temperatures.

4. ocean warming  ➭  less lower clouds  ➭  less sunlight reflected (feedback #25)

A 2021 study finds that warming oceans cause fewer bright clouds to reflect sunlight into space, admitting even more energy into Earth's climate system.

[ Earthshine annual albedo anomaly expressed as reflected flux in W/m². CERES data. ] 

The image below highlights the Pattern Effect of the Southern Ocean's committed warming (around -60°S) becoming more manifest over the years, as warming causes low-level clouds to disappear that reflect sunlight back. A 2021 study concludes this could make a difference of 0.7°C.

[ The Pattern Effect could account for a 0.7°C temperature rise. ]

5. ocean warming  ➭  stratification  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters (feedback #29)

Higher sea surface temperatures come with greater stratification.

[ from earlier post ]

A recent study by Goreau et al. concludes:
Decreased vertical exchange in cold surface currents and in upwelling zones increases thermal stratification and slows down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), retains heat longer in the surface ocean, and reduces CO₂ exchange among the atmosphere, surface ocean, and the deep sea. The HotSpot maps from year to year suggest that upwelling systems can abruptly shut off, causing sudden sharp rises in regional air temperatures, and reducing air-ocean exchange of temperature and CO₂.

6. ocean currents and wind patterns change  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters (feedback #19)

[ from earlier post ]
Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in the  temperature of the lower atmosphere.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise causes a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles. This impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream.

Another recent study warns about intensification of global warming due to the slowdown of the overturning circulation. The overturning circulation carries carbon dioxide and heat to the deep ocean, where it is stored and hidden from the atmosphere. As the ocean storage capacity is reduced, more carbon dioxide and heat are left in the atmosphere. This feedback accelerates global warming.

7. freshwater lid forms at ocean surface  ➭  more heat reaches Arctic Ocean (feedback #28)

Greater stratification, meltwater and rain can contribute to the formation of a freshwater lid that expands at the surface of the North Atlantic, enabling more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, which can occur abruptly at times when a deformed Jet Stream causes storms that speed up ocean currents along this path.

8. Further mechanisms

8.1. El Niño and sunspots

Further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise include a new El Niño in 2025, coinciding with a peak in sunspots that is higher than expected. The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.


The image below shows the October 2024 IRI ENSO forecast. NOAA adds that the IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C.

[ IRI ENSO forecast from Oct 2024 ]

A new El Niño looks set to emerge soon and this may occur in the course of 2025, while Earth's Energy Imbalance is high (and rising), while feedbacks and other mechanisms add further heat and while sunspots reach a peak in this cycle (expected to occur in July 2025), all contributing to further accelerate the temperature rise.


The above image, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral conditions were present from May 2024 through September 2024.

8.2. Earth's Energy Imbalance and lack of political will to act

Earth's growing energy imbalance is perhaps the most obvious mechanism that increases the temperature. 


The image below, by Leon Simons, shows Earth's Energy Imbalance to April 2024 (12-month running mean) as the difference between absorbed and outgoing radiation. 


It's obvious that political action can and must improve Earth's Energy Imbalance, which can and must be achieved by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and further action, through transitions in energy use, agriculture, transport, etc. 

The IPCC has for many years weaved and twisted findings by scientists into a political narrative that downplays the temperature rise and refuses to point at the most effective measures to be taken to act on climate change, in an effort to create the illusion that there was a carbon budget to be divided among polluters as if pollution could continue for decades to come.

Lack of political will to act on the climate emergency is perhaps the most depressing mechanism accelerating the temperature rise. Moreover, where action is taken, blunt political instruments are all too often chosen that won't last long or turn out to be counter-productive. 

8.3. Aerosols

A further mechanism that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise is the falling away of the masking effect of aerosols currently emitted jointly with the greenhouse gases produced in the process of burning fossil fuel and biofuel. Blunt measures may be taken to reduce burning of fossil fuel and biofuel, which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and also reduce emission of cooling aerosols, while such measures can at the same time encourage many to use more wood burners, thus also causing more warming aerosols to be emitted.

Sadly, few people are calling for more sophisticated measures, let alone for more effective measures such as local feebates. It is important to be open and clear as to what can and must be achieved and how, and why.  

Scientist warn that the combined impact of aerosols and nitrogen fertilizers has been underestimated; a recent study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds.

The IPCC image below shows how much temperatures are currently suppressed in the Arctic due to aerosols and thus also shows how much temperatures in the Arctic look set to rise as the aerosol masking effect falls away. 


8.4. Water vapor and the importance of the size of the temperature rise

The water vapor feedback is also getting stronger. The image below, created with NOAA data, shows surface precipitable water through September 2024. Note that values in 2024 are higher than in 2023. 

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the spread of the September 2024 anomaly in precipitable water, with less over the Amazon, but more over the Sahara, while more also shows up at higher northern latitudes, i.e. over the Barents Sea and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. 


Since the water vapor feedback roughly follows the temperature rise (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming), it's important to know the full rise from pre-industrial, as opposed to a rise calculated from a later base. If the temperature rise since pre-industrial is significantly larger, then the extra water wapor feedback will accordingly be larger. 

Similarly, the rise to come (over the next few years) could be significantly larger than expected, e.g. due to the above seven mechanisms relating to changes in snow & ice, winds and oceans, then the extra water vapor will accordingly be larger. 

The image below shows the global September 2024 sea surface temperature anomaly (versus 1951-1980, ERA5 data, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer). 


The image below shows that the September 2024 sea surface temperature anomaly (versus 1951-1980) was at a record high, in a tie with October 2023, in the area between latitudes 10°North and 40°North. 


The image below shows that the September 2024 total column precipitable water anomaly (versus 1951-1980, ERA5 data) was at a record high in the area between latitudes 10°North and 40°North. 


8.5. Tipping points

Loss of Arctic sea ice and loss of Permafrost in Siberia and North America can be regarded both as feedbacks and as tipping points. Loss of Antarctic sea ice and loss of the snow and ice cover on land elsewhere (on Greenland, on Antarctica and on mountaintops such as the Tibetan Plateau) can also be regarded as tipping points. 

What makes them tipping points is that, once the snow and ice cover has disappeared and the ice in the soil has melted, further heat can no longer be consumed in the process of melting or thawing, resulting in a sudden local temperature rise that spreads to neighboring areas. 

As temperatures keep rising, this could cause a second Blue Ocean Event to occur in 2025, i.e. in the Arctic. Subsequently, as the oceans keep heating up, the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed. 

The image below lists 14 events. Note that the 14 mechanisms below are from an earlier post and many mechanisms differ from the above 8 mechanisms. Note also that the order may differ and that, instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other in the speed at which they unfold and the temperature rise that results. There could be interaction and amplification between mechanisms, resulting in a huge abrupt acceleration of the temperature rise that leads to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns, from an earlier post. Finally, note that there could be Black Swan Events that have not yet been identified. 

[ from earlier post - click on images to enlarge ]

Seven important tipping points are:
- The Latent Heat Tipping Point (feedback #14, as discussed above)
- The Seafloor Methane Tipping Point (feedback #16)
- The Clouds Tipping Point (also clouds feedback #30)
- The Terrestrial Biosphere Temperature Tipping Point
- The Ocean Surface Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)
- The Land Evaporation Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)
- The Aquatic Deoxygenation Tipping Point (also discussed at facebook)

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]
A huge temperature rise could occur soon

A huge temperature rise could occur soon, as the impact of these mechanisms keeps growing, as the latent heat tipping point gets crossed in a Double Blue Ocean Event and the seafloor methane tipping point subsequently gets crossed. 

As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.

Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).

This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise. 

The danger of a huge temperature rise is very large in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are held in sediments at the seafloor and in permafrost on land, and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Climate Reanalyzer

• Copernicus

• Earth's Sea Ice Radiative Effect From 1980 to 2023 - by Duspayev et al. (2024) 
• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov

• NASA 
https://data.giss.nasa.gov

• Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - by Piers Forster et al. 
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/2625/2024

• 2023 Record marine heat waves: coral reef bleaching HotSpot maps reveal global sea surface temperature extremes, coral mortality, and ocean circulation changes - by Thomas Goreau et al. 
https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae005/7666987

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - by Piers Forster et al. 


Thursday, September 8, 2022

Blue Ocean Event 2022?

The image on the right shows a NASA Worldview satellite image of a blue Beaufort Sea (with Barrow, Alaska, at the top left, on September 7, 2022). 

The image shows that there is a lot of open water between the coast of Alaska and the sea ice.

Such a satellite image provides a visual way to determine how much sea ice is present. It can be hard to determine where there is open water and where the sea ice starts; the sea ice is often covered by clouds; furthermore, even when there are no clouds, the question remains what is to be regarded as sea ice and what is to be regarded as water. 

Another way to measure how much sea ice is there is to look at sea ice concentration. Sea ice concentration in the Central Arctic region has been very low for some time. 

The image on the right, from an earlier post, shows that on August 12, 2022, sea ice concentration in a large area close to the North Pole was as low as 0%. 

In the two images below, Nico Sun calculates the impact of albedo loss based on NSIDC sea ice concentration data. The images illustrate why sea ice loss in the Central Arctic region is so important.

The image below shows that further albedo loss in the Barents Sea, which is virtually icefree at the moment, doesn't make much difference now. 



The image below shows that, by contrast, more albedo loss in the Central Arctic region makes much more difference, even in September. 


Arctic sea ice has become extremely thin, so the latent heat buffer loss is also very strong. This loss of the latent heat buffer can continue to result in higher temperatures of the water for a long time, even long after insolation has passed its annual peak on the Northern Hemisphere, thus causing the combined accumulative impact to continue to be high.

Another way to measure how much sea ice is present is to look at the extent of the sea ice. According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once the Arctic sea ice falls below 1 million km² in extent.

Arctic sea ice extent was 4.912 million km² on September 6, 2022, which is larger than the extent in many previous years around this time of year (see NSIDC image below). However, the sea ice has become very thin, resulting in many areas where only small pieces of ice are present. 


NSIDC regard a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 15% sea ice, but when regarding a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 50% ice and if that's the case for ⅕ of the cells where there is (some) ice, then we're already in a Blue Ocean Event right now.

So let's have another look at how much of the above 4.912 million km² can be regarded as sea ice, by using the NSIDC map with sea ice concentration as a guide. 

The roughly-sketched outline drawn over the NASA map below indicates that there may only have been some 991 thousand km² of concentrated sea ice left on September 6, 2022 (inset shows NSIDC sea ice concentration for the day). 


As said, it's a rough sketch, so some cells with a higher concentration of sea ice may have been left out. Having said that, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña and the associated lower air temperatures contribute to a relatively larger sea ice extent than would otherwise be the case. 

In conclusion, depending on what is counted as sea ice, we could already be experiencing a Blue Ocean Event right now. 

Further events and developments

A Blue Ocean Event constitutes the crossing of a huge tipping point and, as a strong El Niño looks set to emerge, this could trigger the unfolding of further events and developments leading to extinction of most species (including humans), as: 
  1. a strong El Niño triggers: 
  2. further decline of the Arctic sea ice, with loss of the latent heat buffer, combined with
  3. associated loss of sea ice albedo and
  4. destabilization of seafloor methane hydrates, causing eruption of vast amounts of methane that further speed up Arctic warming and cause
  5. rapid thawing of terrestrial permafrost, resulting in even more emissions,
  6. while the Jet Stream gets even more deformed, resulting in more extreme weather events
  7. causing forest fires, at first in Siberia and Canada and
  8. eventually also in the peat fields and tropical rain forests of the Amazon, in Africa and South-east Asia, resulting in
  9. decline of snow and ice on mountains, at first causing huge flooding, followed by 
  10. drought, heatwaves and urban collapse,
  11. collapse of the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheets,
  12. falling away of aerosol masking as civilization grinds to a halt, 
  13. further heating due to gases and particulates from wood and waste burning and biomass decomposition, and 
  14. further heating due to additional gases (including water vapor), cirrus clouds, albedo changes and heat rising up from oceans. 


Importantly, depicted above is only one scenario out of many. Things may eventuate in different order and occur simultaneously, i.e. instead of one domino tipping over the next one sequentially, many events may occur simultaneously and reinforce each other. Further events and developments could be added to the list, such as ocean stratification and stronger storms that can push large amounts of warm salty water into the Arctic Ocean.


Here is another example of such a scenario. Recent studies indicate that human-caused climate change will soon increase El Niño frequency and intensity. Accordingly, the upcoming El Niño may well be strong. As illustrated with above image, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses the temperature rise, whereas the opposite occurs during El Niño, which amplifies the temperature rise, and this especially affects the Arctic, which is already heating up much faster than the rest of the world. Also, the upcoming El Niño may very well coincide with a peak in sunspots in 2025, further pushing up temperatures.

The image below shows that the rise in sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere has been suppressed during the ongoing La Niña, but as we move into the next El Niño, the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed even earlier than the current trend indicates, say by 2025. 


One reason for this is that the narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics will further deform the Jet Stream and in turn cause more extreme weather, leading to more loss of sea ice and thus of its capacity to reflect sunlight and act as a buffer against incoming ocean heat.

A huge amount of heat has built up in the North Atlantic off the coast of North America, as illustrated by the image on the right.

Furthermore, the temperature of the water may well be substantially higher some 50 meter below the sea surface than at the sea surface. 

As discussed in an earlier post, rising temperatures result in stronger winds along the path of the Gulf Stream that can make huge amounts of warm, salty water travel from the Atlantic Ocean toward the Arctic and reach shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean such as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), where most of the sea is less than 50 m deep. The danger is illustrated by the Argo float compilation below.



Very high methane levels

The image below, from an earlier post, shows annual global mean methane with a trend added that points at a methane rise that could in 2028 represent a forcing of 780 ppm CO₂e (with a 1-year GWP of 200). 

In other words, the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e could be crossed in 2028 due to the forcing of methane and CO₂ alone, assuming that CO₂ concentration in 2028 will exceed 420 ppm. Moreover, this could happen even earlier, since there are further forcers, while further events and developments could additionally push up the temperature further, as discussed above. Furthermore, the NOAA data used in the above image are for marine surface measurements. More methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the compilation image below. 


NOAA's globally averaged marine surface mean for April 2022 was 1909.9 ppb. The above image shows that, on September 4, 2022 am, the MetOp satellite recorded a mean methane concentration of 1904 ppb at 586 mb, which is close to sea level. At 293 mb, however, the MetOp satellite recorded a mean of 1977 ppb, while at 218 mb it recorded a peak of 2805 ppb. 

Such high methane levels could be caused by destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, with large amounts of methane erupting (increasing 160 x in volume) and rising up at accelerating speed through the water column (since methane is lighter than water), concentrated in the form of plumes, which makes that less methane gets broken down in the water by microbes and in the air by hydroxyl, of which there is very little in the Arctic in the first place. Such a methane eruption entering the atmosphere in the form of a plume can be hard to detect as long as it still doesn't cover enough of the 12 km in diameter footprint to give a pixel the color associated with high methane levels. 


The above Copernicus image shows a forecast  for September 9, 2022 18 UTC, of methane at 500 hPa. 

In the video below, from this page, Guy McPherson addresses the question: Has the “Methane Bomb” Been Triggered?


Conclusion

The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan


Links

• NSIDC - Frequently asked questions

• NASA Worldview

• NSIDC - sea ice concentration

• Nico Sun - CryosphereComputing

• NSIDC - sea ice extent

• More Frequent El Niño Events Predicted by 2040
Cutting-edge models predict that El Niño frequency will increase within 2 decades because of climate change, regardless of emissions mitigation efforts.

• Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific - by Yun Ying et al. 
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01301-z

• Climate Reanalyzer

• Argo Float

• Monitoring of atmospheric composition using the thermal infrared IASI/MetOp sounder - by C. Clerbaux et al. 

• NOAA - MetOp satellite methane data 

• Copernicus methane forecasts

• Clouds feedback and tipping point

• NOAA - global methane

• NOAA - Sea surface temperature anomalies on the Northern Hemisphere 

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century


Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Above Zero Celsius at North Pole November 2020

Above image shows that, in October 2020, the Arctic Ocean was very hot. The Copernicus image below shows temperatures averaged over the twelve-month period from November 2019 to October 2020.

Keep in mind that, in the Copernicus image, anomalies are compared to the 1981-2010 average.

Note that the shape of the recent twelve-month period is similar to the 2016 peak, when there was a strong El Niño, while in October 2020 the temperature was suppressed due to La Niña and due to low sunspots.

The image below shows how a hot Arctic Ocean distorts the Jet Stream and hot air moves all the way up to the North Pole. 

Above image shows the Northern Hemisphere at November 12, 2020, with a temperature forecast of 2.0°C or 35.5°F at the North Pole at 1000 hPa at 15:00Z. On the right, jet stream crosses the Arctic Ocean (at 250 hPa). At surface level, a temperature was forecast to be 0.6°C or 33.2°F. 


As it turned out, the highest temperature at the North Pole was 1.1°C or 34.1°F on November 12, 2020, at 1000 hPa at 18:00Z, as above image shows. At 15:00Z that day, a temperature of 1.9°C or 35.3°F was recorded at 1000 hPa just south of the North Pole, at 89.50° N, 1.50° E.

The image below shows temperature anomalies for November 12, 2020, with forecasts approaching 30°C. 


[ Click on images to enlarge ]
These high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean are caused by transfer of huge amounts of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, indicating severe overheating of the Arctic Ocean as a result of the ongoing movement of ocean heat at the surface of the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean along the Gulf Stream. 

As the image on the right shows, temperature anomalies above 20°C were recorded over a large part of the Arctic Ocean on November 16, 2020. 

As illustrated by the image below, temperature anomalies are forecast to remain high over the Arctic Ocean, with the forecast for November 26, 2020, showing anomalies approaching 30°C. 


The resulting distortion of the Jet Stream can at times speed up winds that move hot air from the North Atlantic Ocean toward to Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image at the top. 

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows that the Jet Stream was as fast as 411 km/h or 255 mph south of Greenland (at the green circle), before crossing the Arctic Ocean on November 4, 2020. 

The image below shows how, on November 20, 2020 15:00 UTC, a distorted Jet Stream reaches a speed of 327 km/h or 203 mph (at circle, globe left). At 850 hPa, wind reaches speeds as high as 161 km/h or 100 mph (circle, globe right). 

The danger is that such strong wind will speed up ocean currents in the North Atlantic that carry huge amounts of heat toward the Arctic Ocean. 


The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies compared to 1981-2011 on the Northern Hemisphere on October 23, 2020, when anomalies off the coast of North America were as high as 10.8°C or 19.5°F (left), and on December 3, 2020, when anomalies off the coast of North America were as high as 12.7°C or 22.8°F (right). 


According to a recent news report, an atmospheric river smashed into Juneau, Alaska, dropping 5.08 inches of rain in 24 hours ending 3 a.m. Wednesday December 2, 2020.

This is not an isolated event, but a symptom of the unfolding catastrophe referred to as global warming, which threatens to remove all life from Earth.

Sea surface temperatures around North America are very high. The above image shows that sea surface temperatures were as much as 12.7°C or 22.8°F higher than 1981-2011 off the east coast of North America on December 3, 2020 (green circle). On the image below, the globe on the left shows that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) were as high as 4.1°C or 7.3°F off the west coast of North America on December 4, 2020 (at the green circle).

These high sea surface temperatures speed up de Jet Stream over oceans. At this time of year, temperatures over continents are low, so there is greater ocean/land temperature difference, which further speeds up the Jet Stream where it travels over oceans toward continents. The center globe shows wind as fast as 381 km/h or 237 mph at the time (at circle). 

At the same time, the narrowing temperature difference between the Equator and the North Pole is slowing down the Jet Stream. This is making the Jet Stream more wavy at higher latitudes, even resulting in circular wind patterns, and this can make a lot of cold air leave the Arctic and move over continents, thus further widening the ocean/land temperature difference. Given that more than 90% of global warming goes into oceans, this is an important self-reinforcing feedback of global warming. 

Stronger wind results in stronger evaporation, which cools down the sea surface somewhat, as the blue areas over the Pacific Ocean indicate. Due to the strong wind, much of the moisture falls down farther on the path of the wind. The globe on the right shows 3-hour precipitation accumulation as high as 31.3 mm or 1.23 in off the west coast of North America (green circle). 


The image below shows an earlier analysis, describing the situation in September 6, 2020, when high sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere and a narrow difference between the Equator and the North Pole distorted the Jet Stream, making it cross the Arctic Ocean, form circular wind patterns and reach speeds as fast as 262 km/h or 163 mph (250 hPa, green circle) over the North Atlantic. The globe on the right shows that the Gulf Stream off the North American coast reached speeds of 8 km/h or 5 mph (at green circle). 

[ click on images to enlarge ]

More ocean heat can move into the Arctic Ocean for a number of reasons, including: 
  • At times, the Jet Stream becomes very strong and elongated over the North Atlantic, speeding up the flow of ocean heat along the path of Gulf Stream all the way to the Arctic Ocean;
  • Overall, winds are getting stronger, speeding up ocean currents running just below the sea surface;
  • Stratification of the North Atlantic results in less heat mixing down to lower parts of the ocean; and 
  • Increased evaporation and increased subsequent rainfall farther down the path of the Gulf Stream forms a colder freshwater lid stretched out at the sea surface from the North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean, sealing off transfer of heat from ocean to atmosphere and consequently moving more heat just underneath the sea surface into the Arctic Ocean.

    [ from earlier post ]
As the image below shows, sea surface temperatures as high as 16.6°C or 61.9°F were recorded north of Svalbard on November 9, 2020. 


As the image below shows, the N2O satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2762 ppb on the morning of November 16, 2020.


As the image below shows, the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a peak methane level of 2725 ppb on the afternoon of November 18, 2020.


The video below shows a methane plume or bubble cloud spotted by a team of 69 scientists from ten countries documenting bubble clouds rising from a depth of around 300 metres (985ft) along a 150km (93 mile) undersea slope in the Laptev Sea.


The danger is that even more hot and salty water will reach the shallow parts of the Arctic Ocean that contain huge amounts of methane in the form of hydrates and free gas in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in huge eruptions of methane that, on its own, could almost instantly cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e cloud feedback tipping point to be crossed, which can cause global temperatures to rise by 8°C.

Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page

The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed in the Climate Plan.


Links

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis - global maps

• Copernicus - surface air temperature for October 2020

• Climate Reanalyzer

• nullschool earth wind map

• Atmospheric River Smashes Alaskan Capital’s 24-Hour Rain Record

• Bubbling methane craters and super seeps - is this the worrying new face of the undersea Arctic? - by Valeria Sukhova, Olga Gertcyk - Siberian Post

• Why stronger winds over the North Atlantic are so dangerous

• Feedbacks in the Arctic

• September 2015 Sea Surface Warmest On Record