Friday, October 4, 2024

Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2025. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2025. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2025 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

Arctic sea ice volume

In September 2024, Arctic sea ice reached a new record low volume, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from the Danish Meteorological Institute, with markers for September (red) and April (blue) corresponding with the year's minimum- and maximum volume.


Trends could be added pointing at Arctic sea ice approaching zero volume soon; even more worrying, tipping points could be crossed and speed up the temperature rise beyond a smooth curve. Feedbacks are typically seen as increasing the temperature gradually and smoothly, either in a linear or non-linear way. Feedbacks are mechanisms, but there are also mechanisms that act more abruptly.

Indeed, some mechanisms can have a more abrupt impact. Sea ice could shrink strongly and rapidly as a (tipping) point is reached where the latent heat buffer disappears abruptly and as further incoming ocean heat suddenly can no longer be consumed by melting of what once was thick sea ice that extended meters below the surface. Arctic sea ice typically reached its annual low about half September, but an abrupt decline of Arctic sea ice may well occur earlier than that. Sea ice may melt strongly, and large pieces of sea ice may additionally get pushed out of the Arctic Basin by strong winds. Large and rapid loss of Arctic sea ice may therefore well occur in July 2025 or even earlier, as the latent heat tipping point gets crossed and additional mechanisms further contribute to increase the temperature.

Antarctic Sea ice extent

Antarctic sea ice extent has passed its maximum for the year, and looks set for a steep decline, in line with seasonal changes.

On October 11, 2024, Antarctic sea ice was more than 1 million km² lower in extent than on October 11, 2022, and almost 3 million km² lower in extent than a decade ago, as illustrated by the image below.


Antarctic sea ice extent was 
16.757 million km² on October 11, 2024 
17.926 million km² on October 11, 2022 
19.412 million km² on October 11, 2014

This difference indicates that extent may fall below 1 million km² in February 2025. 

On February 25, 2022, the extent was 1.976 million, so a 1 million km² less extent than that would result in a Blue Ocean Event. A Blue Ocean Event is deemed to occur when the sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less. 

Low Antarctic sea ice extent is a tipping point, as sea ice thickness by February 2025 can be expected to be minimal, resulting in no further ocean heat getting consumed by sea ice below the surface. So, there would be less sunlight getting reflected back into space for months and by February 2025 there would no longer be thicker sea ice that previously consumed incoming ocean heat, and both of these mechanisms are further increasing temperatures.

Note also that Antarctic sea ice extent looks set for a steep decline, the more so as the impact of less sunlight getting reflected will increase over the coming months as more sunlight reaches the Southern Hemisphere, in line with seasonal changes. Albedo changes hit Antarctic sea ice in particular, as it is located at higher latitudes than Arctic sea ice, which is located mostly around the North Pole.

As the image below illustrates, the Antarctic Sea ice extent minimum was well below 2 million km² on each of the past three years.

Minimum annual Antarctic sea ice extent was:
1.976 million km² on February 25, 2022
1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023
1.985 million km² on February 20, 2024

Global sea ice extent at record low for time of year

On October 11, 2024, global sea ice extent was 21.61 million km², a record low for the time of year. Global sea ice extent is now several million km² lower than it was decades ago, more than 2 million km² lower than the 2010's average and more than 5 million km² lower than the 1980's average. 


A recent study found that global sea ice has lost 13%–15% of its planetary cooling effect since the early/mid 1980s, and the implied global sea ice albedo feedback is 0.24–0.38 W m⁻² K⁻¹.

Antarctic Sea ice thickness and volume

There are indications that Antarctic sea ice volume is already decreasing. The images by University of Bremen below show sea ice thickness on August 27, 2024 (left), September 29, 2024 (center) and October 5, 2024 (right).

Temperatures keep rising

Temperature anomalies were high in September 2024, while there have been ENSO-neutral conditions since May 2024 through September 2024. Parts of Antarctic sea ice were hit by very high anomalies, of over 10°C, while very little sunlight is yet reaching Antarctic sea ice in September. 


Temperatures did catch up with 2023 temperatures again, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Copernicus, showing a temperature of 15.62°C on October 6, 2024, an anomaly of 0.8°C from 1991-2022, the highest anomaly on record for the time of the year.


The image below, based on ERA5 data from early 2023 through October 8, 2024, indicates that temperature anomalies have been rising since the start of El Niño, a rise that has continued during ENSO-neutral conditions into La Niña. 


Note that the above anomalies are calculated from 1991-2020, which isn't pre-industrial. When using a pre-industrial base, temperature anomalies would be a lot higher.

Mechanisms accelerating the temperature rise

As illustrated by the image below, there are at least seven mechanisms that are accelerating the surface temperatures rise, and therefore are accelerating sea ice decline.

These seven mechanisms all relate to changes in snow and ice cover, wind patterns and ocean currents, as follows: 

1. latent heat buffer loss  ➭  less heat gets consumed by melting

Sea ice constitutes a buffer that consumes ocean heat; the temperature of the water will not rise as long as there is ice, but once all ice has melted, further heat will raise the temperature of the water. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.


2. sea ice changing into dark ocean  ➭  less sunlight is reflected
Water covered by snow and ice can reflect as much as 90% of the sunlight back into space, absorbing only 10%. By contrast, water without snow and ice can absorb as much as 94% of sunlight, with as little as 6% reflected back into space.  


3. less sea ice  ➭  less outward radiation

A 2014 study finds significantly lower values of far-IR emissivity for ocean surfaces than for sea ice and snow, leading to a decrease in surface emission at far-IR wavelengths, reduced cooling to space, and warmer radiative surface temperatures.

4. ocean warming  ➭  less lower clouds  ➭  less sunlight reflected

A 2021 study finds that warming oceans cause fewer bright clouds to reflect sunlight into space, admitting even more energy into earth's climate system.

[ Earthshine annual albedo anomaly expressed as reflected flux in W/m². CERES data. ] 

5. ocean warming  ➭  stratification  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters

Higher sea surface temperatures come with greater stratification.

[ from earlier post ]

6. ocean currents and wind patterns change  ➭  less heat reaches deeper waters

[ from earlier post ]
Oceans are still absorbing an estimated 91% of the excess heat energy trapped in the Earth's climate system due to human-caused global warming. If just a small part of that heat instead remains in the atmosphere, this could constitute a huge rise in temperature.

Polar amplification of the temperature rise causes a relative slowing down of the speed at which heat flows from the Equator to the poles. This impacts ocean currents and wind patterns, resulting in slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and of ocean currents around Antarctica that carry heat to the deep ocean, as well as in deformation of the Jet Stream.

A recent study warns about intensification of global warming due to the slowdown of the overturning circulation. The overturning circulation carries carbon dioxide and heat to the deep ocean, where it is stored and hidden from the atmosphere. As the ocean storage capacity is reduced, more carbon dioxide and heat are left in the atmosphere. This feedback accelerates global warming.

7. freshwater lid forms at ocean surface  ➭  more heat reaches Arctic Ocean

Greater stratification, meltwater and rain can contribute to the formation of a freshwater lid that expands at the surface of the North Atlantic, enabling more ocean heat to travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, which can occur abruptly at times when a deformed Jet Stream causes storms that speed up ocean currents along this path.


Further mechanisms

Further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise include a new El Niño in 2025, coinciding with a peak in sunspots that is higher than expected. The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.


A new El Niño is about to emerge and this may occur in the course of 2025, while Earth's Energy Imbalance is high (and rising, image below), while feedbacks and further mechanisms contribute to accelerate the temperature rise and while sunspots reach a peak in this cycle (expected to occur in July 2025), adding further heat.


A further mechanism that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise is the falling away of the masking effect of aerosols currently emitted jointly with the greenhouse gases produced in the process of burning fossil fuel and biofuel. Blunt measures may be taken to reduce burning of fossil fuel and biofuel, which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and emission of cooling aerosols, while such measures can at the same time encourage many to use more wood burners, causing more emissions of warming aerosols. Sadly, few people are calling for more sophisticated measures. 

Furthermore, the combined impact of aerosols and nitrogen fertilizers has been underestimated; a recent study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds.

The IPCC image below shows how much temperatures are currently suppressed in the Arctic due to aerosols and thus also shows how much temperatures in the Arctic look set to rise as the aerosol masking effect falls away.


The water feedback is also getting stronger. The image below, created with NOAA data, shows surface precipitable water through September 2024. Note that values in 2024 are higher than in 2023. 

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the spread of the September 2024 anomaly in precipitable water, with less over the Amazon, but more over the Sahara, while more also shows up at higher northern latitudes, i.e. over the Barents Sea and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. 


The water vapor feedback roughly follows the temperature rise (7% more water vapor for every 1°C warming). Given the strength of such feedbacks, it is important to highlight feedbacks when assessing the rise since pre-industrial and the rise to come (over the next few years). 

As temperatures keep rising, this could cause a second Blue Ocean Event to occur in 2025, i.e. in the Arctic. Subsequently, as the oceans keep heating up, the seafloor methane tipping point could be crossed. The danger is that a cascade of events will unfold like a domino effect, leading to extinction of most species, including humans, as the image below warns, listing 14 mechanisms that could further accelerate the temperature rise. 

[ from earlier post - click on images to enlarge ]

[ for more background, also view the Extinction page ]
A huge temperature rise could occur soon

A huge temperature rise could occur soon, as the impact of these mechanisms keeps growing, as the latent heat tipping point gets crossed in a Double Blue Ocean Event and the seafloor methane tipping point subsequently gets crossed. 

As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.

Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).

This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise. 

The danger of a huge temperature rise is very large in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are held in sediments at the seafloor and in permafrost on land, and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Arctic Data archive System - National Institute of Polar Research - Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop

• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

• University of Bremen - Arctic sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• Earth's Sea Ice Radiative Effect From 1980 to 2023 - by Duspayev et al. (2024) 
• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov

• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html

• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html

• Freshwater lid on the North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html

• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence - by Piers Forster et al. 


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Sunday, September 22, 2024

High temperatures despite La Niña?


[ click on images to enlarge ]
Temperatures remain extremely high, even though La Niña conditions may already be present, as illustrated by the above image, showing sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) versus 1981-2011. 

The image on the right shows the Northern Hemisphere (-90°,90°) with SSTA as high as 24.8°F (13.8°C) in Hudson Bay (green circle) on Sep. 22, 2024. There are only very few cold spots, while massive amounts of ocean heat are present in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. 

On September 26, 2024, the sea surface temperature (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) was 20.97°C, a record high for the time of year and 0.83°C above the 1982-2010 average, as illustrated by the image below. 


North Atlantic (0-60°N 0-80°W) sea surface temperature anomalies remained high and reached a record high for the time of year on September 26, 2024, as illustrated by the image below (SSTA vs 1882-2011).


The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface reached a temperature of 24.97°C (76.95°F) on September 22, 2024, a record high for the time of year and 1.07°C (1.926°F) above 1991-2020 or 1.3°C (2.34°F) above 1981-2010. The image also shows a 0.23°C difference in anomalies when shifting the base by a decade, indicating that the anomaly would be much higher when calculated from a pre-industral base. 
 

The image below, by Brian McNoldy shows that ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico was at a record high for the time of year on September 23, 2024. 


La Niña conditions may already be present

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.


The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.


While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, as the above image shows. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while sunspots move toward a peak and while temperatures remain high due to Earth's high Energy Imbalance and due to feedbacks, as discussed in a recent post. The peak in sunspots in this cycle is expected to occur in July 2025, at which time Arctic sea ice may disappear, triggering further feedbacks, leading to a huge temperature rise by end 2026 that could drive humans into extinction. 


The above image from Copernicus illustrates that, for many months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.


The above image illustrates that global daily mean near-surface (2m) air temperature anomalies vs 1991-2020 (Copernicus) have been above about 0.5°C for almost 16 consecutive months, i.e. since El Niño started (in June 2023, blue shade) and under ENSO-neutral conditions (starting May 2024). La Niña is expected to start October 2024 and the added trends point at a continued rise.   

The danger of methane hydrates getting destabilized

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.6°C on September 21, 2024. The image also shows the Gulf Stream pushing ocean heat toward the Arctic Ocean.

This flow of ocean heat can be accelerated by storms that are amplified due to high sea surface temperatures, deformation of the Jet Stream and a freshwater lid forming at the surface of the North Atlantic. 

At the same time, Arctic sea ice starts expanding rapidly in extent at this time of year, effectively sealing off the Arctic Ocean and making it hard for heat to get transferred from the surface of the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. 

As discussed in earlier posts, Arctic sea ice has become very thin, diminishing its capacity to act as a buffer that consumes ocean heat entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic. 

Sea ice constitutes a latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat as it melts. While the ice is melting, all energy (at 334 J/g) goes into changing ice into water and the temperature remains the same. Once all ice has turned into water, all subsequent energy goes into heating up the water, and will do so at 4.18 J/g for every 1°C the temperature of the water rises.

[ The Latent Heat Buffer ]
Ocean heat that was previously consumed by melting the sea ice, can no longer get consumed by melting of the sea ice once Arctic sea ice has become very thin, and further incoming heat instead gets absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, rapidly pushing up the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean.

The danger is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, more heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

The image below illustrates how incoming ocean heat that previously was consumed in the process of melting of the sea ice, is now causing the water of the Arctic Ocean to heat up, with more heat reaching the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which has seas that in many places are very shallow.
[ Latent heat loss, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]

Eruptions from hydrates occur at great force, since the methane expands 160 times in volume when it vaporizes, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column, which especially applies to the many areas where the Arctic Ocean is very shallow. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• Nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Ocean Heat Content - by Brian McNoldy
https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc

• NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf





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Saturday, September 21, 2024

AI-controlled apes with apps at seconds to Midnight

by Andrew Glikson


What further evidence do the inhabitants of planet Earth need to have to convince them the liveable climate, the lungs of the Earth, is sharply deteriorating, species are dying, the mere failure of a computer chip or of a human neuron are capable of terminating civilization, that the powers that be are leading to one of the greatest mass extinction in the history of the Earth and that mass migration to Mars is a cynical myth. At the death of détente the powers that be, aimed toward World War III, do not appear to be concerned with the consequences of extreme global warming, clear evidence for their lack of concern for life on Earth.

[ Guernica, mural by Pablo Picasso, from Wikipedia ]

On Monday 26 April 1937, the Basque town of Guernica was bombed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy at the request of the Spanish Nationalists under the command of General Francisco Franco during the Spanish Civil War. No painting other than Pablo Picasso’s Guernica more strikingly depicts the massacre of the oncoming fascism – the human death cult reaching a peak in World War II and re-emerging toward World War III, as nuclear fleets and climate extremes aim at life on Earth, as Governments and snake-oil merchants spend $trillions threatening to radioactivate the atmosphere, reinventing the killing fields under false-flags as Goebbels-like agents with blood on their hands deceive the multitude to the tune of canned laughter, women carry dead children, multi-billionaires plan future space shots out of the mouths of the hungry, Olympic cyclists write themselves into history and only the young rebel against the global insanity.

[ from: The Madness of Nuclear and Climate Horror ]

Cycles of death, repeated almost every generation, follow breakups in the international order, women die alongside their men as in the Spanish Civil war, or are left to rebuild their shattered homes.

Over the past few decades the probability of a nuclear war has grown to some 12,121 hair-triggered weapons aimed at all life, that the criminal powers refuse to dismantle, propagating hollow Orwellian speak on the airwaves. But while it is common for the misguided to attribute atrocities to so called “leaders”, including in parliaments, which the people initially elected under false pretences.

The consequences range from fatal imperial wars to global climate calamities. According to Jeffrey D. Sachs (July 16, 2024): “The quest for hegemony has pushed the world to open warfare between the world’s two leading nuclear powers”.

As conveyed by Thucydides Trap, the rise of empires constitutes a major driver of international conflict, from the Persian superpower to the Roman empire. In the modern era, détente could hardly survive while submarine and space weapon systems proliferate and adversaries seek “victory” at the price of millions of lives in World wars. There is no evidence current promoters of the looming nuclear war can be brought to trial in a future round of Nuremberg trials.

Fascism, coined after the Roman fascia, tantamount to military barbarism, represents the hallmark of tribal killing through history, as contrasted with a small percent of peaceful nomadic tribes. The ratio of male deaths in modern wars is far less.

The ultimate control of a future global biosphere by AI-weapon systems can only subject civilization and the living biosphere to an intelligence-free world, hard to conceive less brutal than World wars I, II or the looming World War III.

But blame cannot be exclusively attributed to “leaders”, so-called, who once elected into positions of “power” need to conform to those in control of industry and society. Opinion makers manufacture consent. The mega-rich, tycoons, corporate directors, shareholders and managers of the “fourth estate” paint black as white propagating major untruths, for example making it look as if carbon exports can be distinguished from domestic greenhouse emissions in terms of their effects on the atmosphere.

While responsibility belongs to all of humanity, it is the relatively affluent “first world” governments which generate the oncoming collapse (Jared Diamond, 2005).


A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and climate scientist

Andrew Glikson
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080



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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Will we be alive in 2025, who will survive, 2025?


The above image, created with monthly mean global temperature anomalies by LOTI Land+Ocean NASA/GISS/GISTEMP v4 data while using a 1903-1924 base, has a trend added based on Jan 2016-Aug 2024 data. The image also shows that anomalies could be 0.99°C higher when using a more genuine pre-industrial base.

The image below featured in an earlier post and was created with an image from the NASA website while using an 1885-1915 base, illustrating the calculation behind this 0.99°C. More details are here.


The image below from Copernicus illustrates that, for more than 14 consecutive months, the temperature anomaly has been high, i.e. about 0.8°C (± 0.3°C) above the 1991-2020 average and much more when compared to a pre-industrial base, with little or no sign of a return to earlier temperatures.


The image below, from an earlier post and created with an image from the NASA website while using a 1903-1924 base, confirms that the monthly temperature anomaly through August 2024 has been more than 1.5°C above this base for each of the past consecutive 14 months. The post adds that anomalies will be even higher when compared to a pre-industrial base. The red line shows a trend produced by the NASA website (2-year Lowess Smoothing).


Potential causes for such a rapid temperature rise include a cataclysmic alignment of the temperature peak of the next El Niño coinciding with a peak in sunspots expected to occur in July 2025.

The black dashed line in the image below, adapted from NOAA, indicates a transition to La Niña in October 2024, persisting through Jan-Mar 2025.


The image below, adapted from NOAA, illustrates that El Niño conditions were present from June 2023 through April 2024, and that ENSO-neutral started in May 2024.


While El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, as NOAA explains, El Niños can occur as frequently as every two years, as happened in 2002, 2004 and 2006, as the above image shows. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C.

The danger is that we could move into a new El Niño in 2025, while temperatures remain high due to feedbacks and while sunspots move toward a peak in this cycle, expected to occur in July 2025.

The image below (top part), adapted from NOAA, shows the observed values for the number of sunspots for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]

The above image (bottom part) shows the observed values for the F10.7cm radio flux for cycle 25, through August 2024, as well as the values predicted by NOAA (red line).

The observed values are much higher than predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from early 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C.

This - in combination with further events, developments and short-term variables - could constitute a cataclysmic alignment that could result in runaway temperature rise by 2026, as an earlier post concluded.

Natural variability is mentioned by the IPCC, but because such events vary from year to year, their impact is smoothed out in climate change calculations that average the temperature rise over the course of decades. Yet, when such events coincide in a cataclysmic alignment, as could be the case within the next few years, the extra rise in temperature from - say - the year 2021 could be over 0.75°C. Note that this is an extra rise, on top of the long-term rise due to activities by people since pre-industrial.

Furthermore, as emissions and temperatures keep rising, such an extra rise could trigger feedbacks that threaten to grow in strength and strike with ever greater ferocity, further accelerating the temperature rise while extreme weather disasters hit numerous regions around the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods.


Such feedbacks include loss of sea ice and permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases. Temperature anomalies are high and Arctic sea ice volume is very low, as illustrated by the compilation of images below, adapted from nullschool, Climate Reanalyzer and the Danish Meteorological Institute.  


Ominously, high methane concentrations (well over 2400 ppb) were recently recorded at the observatory in Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from NOAA. 


Slowing down of ocean currents could cause less heat to move deep into the ocean and more heat to instead accumulate at the surface, while more water vapor would enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and as illustrated by the image below, created with NOAA data.
[ surface precipitable water through August 2024 ]
The compilation image below, with forecasts for September 20, 2024 03 UTC (run 00 UTC) adapted from Copernicus, illustrates gases and biomass-burning aerosols released due to forest fires burning in the Amazon. Formaldehyde and carbon monoxide cause hydroxyl depletion and thus extend methane's lifetime. 


Conflict and socio-economic stress could add further forcing. Heatwaves, fires, famine, drought, floods, crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world, industrial activity to grind to a halt and the temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial, driving humans into extinction. Sadly, politicians and mainstream media fail to inform people about the danger, and once the full horror reveals itself, panic could be added to the problems the world faces.

Dangers associated with high temperatures are discussed in this earlier post. A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links

• NASA - Gistemp
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html

• Did the climate experience a Regime Change in 2023? 

• Water Vapor Feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/09/water-vapor-feedback.html

• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202408/supplemental/page-4

• NOAA - El Niño and La Niña 

• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html

• Cataclysmic Alignment threatens Climate Catastrophe 



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