Antarctic sea ice
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
The above images, adapted from University of Bremen and ClimateReanalyzer.org, illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) and of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 9, 2025, and the sea ice concentration on January 9, 2025.
The compilation image below shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 5, 2025, when the sea surface temperature off the coast of East Antarctica was 1.6°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly from 1981-2011 of 1.8°C (image right).Changes to ocean currents can cause more heat to accumulate at the ocean surface, resulting in more Antarctic sea ice melting from below and losing thickness. Where the temperature of the (saline) ocean water rises above -1.8°C (28.7°F), the sea ice will start melting away from below.
[ click on images to enlarge ] |
The above compilation image shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 8, 2025, when the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean was 22.5°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly of 5.2°C compared to 1981-2011 (image right).
The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.
High temperatures despite La Niña
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.
While La Niña conditions are strongly present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived.
Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.23°C on January 10, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends in the image below. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
The image below shows that temperature anomalies for the past two years (2023 and 2024) have been at least 1.5°C above this custom 1903-1924. The red line again shows a 2-year Lowess Smoothing trend.
Note that the 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies may be well above 2°C, as discussed at the pre-industrial page and in many earlier posts such as this one.
[ from earlier post ] |
In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots that are higher than expected are peaking in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.
There are numerous additional mechanisms that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise, such as loss of sea ice and changes in ocean currents that could cause oceans to take up less heat and more heat to instead remain in the atmosphere. The dangers increase as sea surface temperatures keep rising.
The Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal temperature peaks are more extreme, could be hit strongly. One of the largest dangers is that huge amounts of methane could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing permafrost. The images above and below illustrate the danger, showing an even steeper rise of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
As temperatures keep rising, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with accelerating ferocity, such as more water vapor in the atmosphere, less lower clouds and changes to wind patterns, further accelerating the temperature rise and contributing to extreme weather disasters hitting the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, the danger of rapidly rising temperatures is particularly high. This can trigger widespread flooding, fires, drought, famine, heat stress, storms and other weather disasters, while crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world.
[ from earlier post ] |
As illustrated by the above images, changes in aerosols could cause temperatures to rise strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular in the Arctic. As industrial activity grinds to a halt, temperatures could rise due to a loss of cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such a as this one.
At the same time, releases of heating aerosols could increase due to more burning of wood and biofuel, more forest fires, peat field fires and urban fires, and more burning of industrial facilities and waste pits. Black and brown carbon cause the air temperature to rise, while they also darken the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.
been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one. Ominously, the image below shows very high temperature anomalies forecast over the Arctic Ocean for October 2025.
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html
• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
• University of Bremen - sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162009995269679
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Berkeley Earth
• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña• NOAA - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) - 9 January 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Also discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162287704454679
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Also discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162287704454679
• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html
• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Climate at a Glance - Global Time Series
• pre-industrial
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Temperatures rising fast March 2023
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
• Temperatures rising fast March 2023
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html