Carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations grew by 3.75 parts per million (ppm) during 2024, the highest growth rate on record.
The annual global average surface concentration of CO₂ for 2024 was 422.79 ppm, according to NOAA data. The image below shows monthly global average surface concentrations of CO₂.
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[ image from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ] |
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[ from earlier post ] |
Importantly, the GWP of the non-CO₂ gases and aerosols can be very high over a short horizon, which means that rises in their concentrations can result in a huge and rapid temperature rise. Two of them, nethane and nitrous oxide, are discussed below in more detail.
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[ from earlier post, also note the recent discussion on monthly methane ] |
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[ from earlier post ] |
Large increases in N₂O emissions could occur and since N₂O is a potent greenhouse gas with a long lifetime, the impact would accumulate rapidly and the rise could follow a steep curve, the more so since N₂O emissions caused by people come mainly from applying nitrogen fertilizers and animal waste to farmland and pastures, and policy control over emissions from nitrogen fertilizers is largely absent or ineffective, while farmers are increasingly using nitrogen fertilizers in efforts to increase crop yield, especially where yields are falling due to rising temperatures and more extreme weather events. IPCC AR6 gives N₂O a global warming potential (GWP) of 273 over both 500 years and 100 years, and of 118 over 20 years, while its lifetime is 120 years.
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[ from earlier post ] |
Such short-term variables are smoothed out in the black linear trend which shows a steady but much slower rise of 0.5°C over about 3½ years (Jan 2023 - Sep 2026), and this rise is a much steeper rise than the 1.1°C rise over 81 years (from 1941 to 2022) of a linear trend in the image below, from an earlier image.
The Arctic is hit most strongly by the temperature rise, as illustrated by the image below showing the ERA5 global temperature anomaly for February-March 2025 versus 1951-1980.
The fact that these air temperature anomalies occurred at a time of year when little or no sunlight was yet reaching the Arctic indicates the strong contribution of ocean heat to these high air temperature anomalies.
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[ Gulf Stream, click to enlarge ] |
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[ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ] |
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[ from the Extinction page ] |
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[ from earlier post ] |
Links
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_gl.txt
• NOAA - Annual Mean Global Carbon Dioxide Growth Rates
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162561012229679
• IPCC - warming in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-2
• NOAA - Nitrous oxide emissions grew 40 percent from 1980 to 2020, accelerating climate change
• N₂O is currently the most significant ozone-depleting substance being emitted
• Copernicus
https://climate.copernicus.eu
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions - 14 April 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html