Antarctic sea ice
[ Antarctic sea ice, click on images to enlarge ] |
The above images, adapted from University of Bremen and ClimateReanalyzer.org, illustrate the decline in thickness (in cm) and of Antarctic sea ice between August 27, 2024, and January 9, 2025, and the sea ice concentration on January 9, 2025.
The compilation image below shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 5, 2025, when the sea surface temperature off the coast of East Antarctica was 1.6°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly from 1981-2011 of 1.8°C (image right).[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 5, 2025, click on images to enlarge ] |
Changes to ocean currents can contribute to more heat accumulating at the ocean surface and underneath the surface, resulting in more Antarctic sea ice melting from below and losing thickness. Where the temperature of the (saline) ocean water rises above -1.8°C (28.7°F), the sea ice will start melting away from below.
[ SH Sea surface temperature on January 8, 2025, click on images to enlarge ] |
The above compilation image shows the Southern Hemisphere on January 8, 2025, when the sea surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean was 22.5°C at the green circle (image left), an anomaly of 5.2°C compared to 1981-2011 (image right).
The above image shows zonal mean ocean temperature trends down to 2000 m, from Cheng et al.
The above image, from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.
High temperatures despite La Niña
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.
While La Niña conditions are strongly present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived.
Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.23°C on January 10, 2025, the highest temperature on record for the time of year, according to ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends in the image below. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
The image below, created with NASA data through December 2024 while using a 1903-1924 custom base, illustrates that the monthly temperature anomalies have been above 1.5°C compared to this base for 18 consecutive months (from July 2023 through December 2024). The red line shows a trend (2-year Lowess Smoothing) associated with recent data and the trend indicates that the anomaly is rising.
The image below shows that temperature anomalies for the past two years (2023 and 2024) have been at least 1.5°C above this custom 1903-1924. The red line again shows a 2-year Lowess Smoothing trend.
[ 2023 and 2024 temperature anomalies compared to 1903-1924 ] |
Note that the 1903-1924 base is not pre-industrial. When using a genuinely pre-industrial base, anomalies may be well above 2°C, as discussed at the pre-industrial page and in many earlier posts such as this one.
[ Sea surface temperature anomaly on January 8, 2025 ] |
The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Keep in mind that the last El Niño wasn't even very strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.
[ Temperature rise due to El Niño from earlier post ] |
In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while sunspots that are higher than expected are peaking in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.
There are numerous additional mechanisms that could strongly accelerate the temperature rise, such as loss of sea ice and changes in ocean currents that could cause oceans to take up less heat and more heat to instead remain in the atmosphere. The dangers increase as sea surface temperatures keep rising.
[ Global Sea surface temperature ] |
The Northern Hemisphere, where seasonal temperature peaks are more extreme, could be hit strongly. One of the largest dangers is that huge amounts of methane could erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and from thawing permafrost. The images above and below illustrate the danger, showing an even steeper rise of sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere.
[ NH Sea surface temperature ] |
As temperatures keep rising, feedbacks can be expected to kick in with accelerating ferocity, such as more water vapor in the atmosphere, less lower clouds and changes to wind patterns, further accelerating the temperature rise and contributing to extreme weather disasters hitting the world more frequently over larger areas, with greater intensity and for longer periods. On land on the Northern Hemisphere, the danger of rapidly rising temperatures is particularly high. This can trigger widespread flooding, fires, drought, famine, heat stress, storms and other weather disasters, while crop loss, loss of habitable land and corrupt politicians threaten to cause violent conflicts to erupt around the world.
[ Aerosols, from earlier post ] |
As illustrated by the above combination image, changes in aerosols could cause temperatures to rise strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular in the Arctic. As industrial activity grinds to a halt, temperatures could rise due to a loss of cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such a as this one.
At the same time, releases of heating aerosols could increase due to more burning of wood and biofuel, more forest fires, peat field fires and urban fires, and more burning of industrial facilities and waste pits. Black and brown carbon cause the air temperature to rise, while they also darken the surface when settling down, thus further speeding up the decline of the snow and ice cover in the Arctic.
[ Arctic sea ice volume ] |
These mechanisms could jointly cause the global temperature to rise above 3°C from pre-industrial and drive many species (including humans) into extinction by 2026, as has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this one.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice volume remains at a record low for the time of year. The image on the right, from dmi.dk, shows volume through January 13, 2025 (black arrow points at 2025 Arctic sea ice volume).
High sea surface temperature anomalies are forecast for the Arctic Ocean for August 2025, as illustrated by the image below, from tropicaltidbits.
[ Sea surface temperatures anomalies ] |
As illustrated by the image below, very high temperature anomalies forecast over the Arctic Ocean for October 2025.
[ Temperature Anomalies (2 m) ] |
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.
• Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/double-blue-ocean-event-2025.html
• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
• University of Bremen - sea ice
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start
also discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162009995269679
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Berkeley Earth
• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño/La Niña• NOAA - EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) - 9 January 2025
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Also discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162287704454679
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Also discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10162287704454679
• Copernicus - Global surface air temperature
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/paris-agreement-thresholds-crossed.html
• NOAA - National Centers for Environmental Information - Climate at a Glance - Global Time Series
• pre-industrial
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Temperatures rising fast March 2023
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Tropicaltidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html
• Temperatures rising fast March 2023
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Sea surface temperature at record high
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
• Tropicaltidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html