The image below, made with a screenshot from Berkeley Earth, shows an annual average temperature rise of 3°C or more in 2050 in China for each of the three scenarios looked at.
China is important, it has a large well-educated population and a large part of global emissions is released in China. Some countries face even more dire prospects. Have people been told how dire the situation is? The general lack of climate action around the world suggests that people have not been sufficiently informed. Moreover, many scientists, journalists, judges, politicians and civil servants bluntly refuse to inform people.
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[ Top: Extreme risk impact, adapted from Planetary Solvency actuaries.org.uk (2025).
Bottom: 5.163°C rise, climatereanalyzer.org image, from earlier post ] |
The image below shows the January 2025 temperature anomaly, compared to NASA's default 1951-1980 base.
The image below shows that monthly temperature anomalies have been more than 1.5°C above 1903-1924 (custom base, not pre-industrial) for 19 consecutive months (July 2023 through January 2025). The anomaly is rising rapidly, the red line (2-year Lowess Smoothing trend) points at a 2°C rise in 2026 (compared to 1903-1924, which - as said - is not pre-industrial).
Warnings about the potential for a huge rise in temperature have been sounded before, e.g. see the
extinction page and the image below with daily data and added trends.
While La Niña conditions are definitely present in January 2025, the La Niña is expected to be short-lived. Temperatures are typically suppressed during La Niña. Despite temperatures being suppressed, the global surface air temperature reached 13.33°C on February 11, 2025, or 0.67°C above 1991-2020, according to
ERA5 data. Temperatures keep rising, as indicated by the trends added to and based on the data, despite La Niña.
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| [ click on images to enlarge ] |
Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025?
La Niña conditions are currently present. The probabilities of El Niño conditions are expected to rise in the course of 2025. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C, as illustrated by the image below.
The image below, adapted
from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies colored by ENSO values.
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| [ temperature anomaly through January 2025 colored by ENSO values, click to enlarge ] |
Despite the presence of La Niña, temperatures keep rising. Will a new El Niño emerge in the course of 2025? The image below shows a NOAA forecast dated February 13, 2025.
The potential for a huge temperature rise within a few months timeEarth's temperature imbalance is growing, as emissions and temperatures keep rising. In a cataclysmic alignment, the upcoming El Niño threatens to develop while
sunspots are higher than expected. Sunspots are predicted to peak in July 2025. The temperature difference between maximum versus minimum sunspots could be as much as 0.25°C.
There are further mechanisms that could accelerate the temperature rise, such as reductions in aerosols that are currently masking global warming. Furthermore, the temperature rise comes with numerous feedbacks such as loss of sea ice, loss of lower clouds, more water vapor in the atmosphere and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents that could cause extreme weather events such as forest fires and flooding to increase in frequency, intensity, duration and area covered, and oceans to take up less heat, with more heat instead remaining in the atmosphere. The self-reinforcing nature of many of these feedbacks could cause the temperature rise to accelerate strongly and rapidly within a few months time.
According to an
earlier analysis, the 2°C above pre-industrial threshold may already have been crossed and we're moving toward 3°C at a pace that is accelerating, rather than slowing down. Once more, isn't it high time for people to be told how dire the situation is?
Double Blue Ocean Event 2025?
The above image,
from Berkeley Earth, illustrates the importance of Antarctic Sea ice loss in accelerating the temperature rise.
Antarctic sea ice is moving toward 1 million km² in area, a threshold when a Blue Ocean Event could be declared in the Southern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.
Researchers on board the ship Sarmiento de Gamboa recently observed columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide. Researchers looked for leaks on the edges of Antarctica, according to a
recent news report. “We have estimated that in this area there are some 24 gigatons of carbon accumulated in methane hydrates”, warns Roger Urgeles, of the Institute of Marine Sciences, based in Barcelona, leaders of the expedition.
An Antarctic Blue Ocean Event alone would dramatically increase Earth's Heat Imbalance. The combination of low sea ice area around Antarctica and in the Arctic looks set to cause a dramatic temperature rise over the coming months.
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| [ Arctic sea ice volume, click to enlarge ] |
Persistently low global sea ice area therefore also threatens a Blue Ocean Event to occur in the Arctic later this year.
Ominously, Arctic sea ice volume is at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right, showing Arctic sea ice volume on February 15, 2025.
An Arctic Blue Ocean Event threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing eruptions of huge amounts of methane, with the resulting temperature rise in the Arctic causing permafrost on land to thaw strongly and abruptly, in turn causing additional greenhouse gas releases.
The above image shows methane as high as 2561 ppb at 399.1 mb recorded by the N21 satellite on February 5, 2025 am.
The stacked bar chart on the right includes (at the bottom) a potential 2.29°C for the rise in temperature from pre-industrial to 2020.
A rise of 0.5°C is included for the additional CO₂ released through 2026 and for the rising impact of the recently emitted CO₂. Note that the chart was first conceived in 2016, so the impact of the CO₂ released from 2016 to today has meanwhile already eventuated.
Changes in aerosols are given the potential for a 1.9°C rise due to reductions in cooling aerosols (mainly sulfate), while a 0.6°C rise is included due to additional warming gases and aerosols.
In the bar chart, a potential rise of 1.6°C is reached by the end of 2026 as a result of snow and ice loss and changes in wind patterns and ocean currents.
An additional 1.1°C is reached as a result of eruption of methane from the seafloor, while additional greenhouse gas emissions result in a 0.35°C rise.
The temperature rise itself triggers further feedbacks such as an increase of water vapor in the atmosphere (2.1°C) and loss of lower clouds (8°C). Altogether, the rise could reach 18.44°C by the end of 2026. Warnings about the potential for such a rise have been sounded before, e.g. at the
extinction page. Note the above-mentioned warning that humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.
Climate Emergency Declaration
The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in
this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at
this group.
Links• Berkeley Earth - policy insights
https://berkeleyearth.org/policy-insights• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org• Did a Terminal Temperature Acceleration Event start in December 2024?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/12/did-a-terminal-temperature-acceleration-event-start-in-december-2024.html• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic sea ice volume and thickness
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php• Why downplay the need for action?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-downplay-the-need-for-action.htmlAlso discussed on Facebook at:
Also discussed on facebook at:
