Arctic News

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Rising temperature threatens to devastate sea ice

On July 21, 2026, the world temperature was at a record high for the time of year (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The temperature in the Tropics was also at a record high for the time of year on July 22, 2026 (image below).

On July 21, 2026, the temperature in the Arctic was at a record high for the time of year (image below).

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to high temperatures, as the amount of insolation received by the Arctic is very high at this time of year. Furthermore, high Arctic temperature peaks were earlier reached in 2016, when a very strong El Niño was present. This time, the 2026 El Niño looks set to be even stronger.

Insolation changes with the seasons and also changes between day and night. In the image below, adapted from Wikipedia, latitude is on the vertical axis and time of year is on the top horizontal axis.

The June Solstice in 2026 occurred on June 21, 2026.

In the Arctic, annual insolation is at its highest at the June Solstice, i.e. June 21 for the year 2026. Around this time of year, the sunlight has less distance to travel through the thinner atmosphere over the Arctic, compared to the atmosphere at the Equator. Therefore, less sunlight gets absorbed or scattered over the Arctic before reaching the surface.

In addition, the high angle of the Sun produces long days, while sunlight is also concentrated over a smaller area. Above the Arctic Circle, the Sun does not set at this time of year, so solar radiation continues all day and night. During the months of June and July, insolation over the Arctic is higher than anywhere else on Earth.

How much sunlight does reach the surface further depends on weather conditions such as clouds and how much heat gets pushed by the wind toward the North Pole. As temperatures have risen over the years, the Jet Stream has become more deformed, increasing the chance that heatwaves over land extend over the Arctic Ocean. Deformation of the Jet Stream can also lead to increasingly strong winds speeding up ocean currents that can abruptly push huge amounts of ocean heat into the Arctic ocean, as further discussed at the post Arctic sea ice July 2022.

[ Arctic heating up most strongly ]

This partly explains why the temperature rise is strongest in the Arctic. The image on the right, adapted from NASA, shows anomalies versus 1951-1980 as high as 3.88°C.

Further contributing to the strong rise in the Arctic are albedo changes, loss of the latent heat buffer, and jet stream changes that can cause more heatwaves and more ocean heat moving into the Arctic Ocean and result in methane releases.

Rising temperature

[ forecast for August 2, 2026 ]

Very high temperatures are increasingly occurring at higher altitudes. The image on the right shows a forecast for August 2, 2026, of high temperatures reaching Canada, as illustrated by the image on the right.

A recent Northern Hemisphere lakes study led by Jian Zhou finds that as a critical thermal threshold of mean winter air temperature gets crossed, the sensitivity of ice loss increases by up to 22-fold.

A recent study led by Christina Schädel finds that permafrost fires and thaw will release 63 Gt C for each degree Celsius rise in temperature.

Furthermore, as temperatures at higher altitudes rise, the danger increases that a huge amount of warm, salty water suddenly gets pushed into the Arctic Ocean by a cyclone, destabilizing sediments at the seafloor and triggering eruptions of methane from hydrates. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts such as this 2018 post.

As illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.16°C on July 25, 2026, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.96°C higher than 1982-2010, a record high anomaly versus 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 25, 2026.

The 2026 El Niño

The 2026 El Niño is on track to cause very high sea surface temperatures over the next few months.

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts approach 5°C for parts of some members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 31, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts of many members partly exceed 5°C, while part of the mean approaches 5°C.

The image below shows that the sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 29.42°C on July 30, 2026, 2.49°C higher than 1982-2010 and a jump of 3.67°C in a span of less than 7 months from the 25.75°C recorded on January 9, 2026. The globe (inset bottom) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 30, 2026.

[ Sea surface temperature anomaly July 26, 2026 ]

The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies on July 26, 20026. A huge amount of Ocean heat has accumulated in the Pacific Ocean and in the Atlantic Ocean, overwhelming colder areas that were previously present in the oceans.

Rising air and sea surface temperatures threaten to devastate sea ice. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in September. An Arctic Blue Ocean Event would strongly speed up acceleration of the temperature rise. The 2026 El Niño looks set to continue into early 2027. Antarctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent in February, so an Antarctic Blue Ocean Event could follow.

Sea ice

As illustrated by the image below, the global sea ice extent was 2.9 million km² lower than 1981-2010, a deviation of -4.11σ, on July 27, 2026 (highlighted in black). The year 2025 is highlighted in blue and the years 2023 and 2024 are highlighted in purple.

The image below shows that the 2026 global sea ice extent anomaly has come down since the 2026 El Niño started to develop. The 2026 El Niño looks set to strengthen over the coming months, which spells bad news for global sea ice.

Conclusion

The situation is dire and unacceptably dangerous, and the precautionary principle necessitates the danger to be acknowledged, while facilitating rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the outlook, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as described in posts such as in this 2022 post and this 2025 post, and as discussed in the Climate Plan group.

Links

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NASA - Goddard Institute for Space Studies
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

• Blue Ocean Event

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html

• Rapid acceleration of ice-cover loss from Northern Hemisphere lakes above critical air temperature thresholds - by Jian Zhou et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2610752123
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10164551691999679

• Permafrost and wildfire carbon emissions indicate need for additional action to keep Paris Agreement temperature goals within reach - by Christina Schädel et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03189-5
discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163804667894679

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Emissions are not falling

Temperature rise

For many years, alarms have been raised about the accelerating temperature rise. Forest fires and methane releases in the Arctic contribute strongly to the acceleration of the temperature rise and to the danger that the clouds tipping point may get crossed soon, as discussed in an earlier post.

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.54°C on July 20, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.34°C higher than 1979-2000 (which is not pre-industrial). The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 20, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

On July 25, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature was 21.16°C, a record high temperature for the time of year and 0.96°C higher than 1982-2010, a record high anomaly versus 1982-2010 (which is not pre-industrial). The globe (inset top right) shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 25, 2026.

Ocean heat in the Northern Hemisphere constitutes the primary cause of Arctic sea ice decline, as discussed in earlier post such as this one. In a publication issued July 13, 2026, NOAA announced El Niño to be present, adding that the 2026 El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year. The 2026 El Niño, on top of the accelerating temperature rise, threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as well as loss of virtually all Antarctic sea ice in early 2027, as also illustrated by the sea surface temperature anomaly forecast below for January 2027, a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

[ image from earlier post ]

Clearly, politicians must take drastic action that includes action to increase resilience and action to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Sadly, it appears that politicians are not taking the necessary action and that - as a result - emissions are rising.

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]

Greenhouse gases rising

Greenhouse gas concentrations have been rising since 1750, as illustrated by the image on the right. Carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide have been rising rapidly, while methane has been rising even more rapidly.

More methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

The 2026 El Niño is strengthening and sea surface temperatures are already at a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below.

Ocean heat threatens to destabilize sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing massive eruptions of methane contained in those sediments in the form of methane hydrates and free gas held underneath these hydrates.

Concentrations of gases

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. While concentrations should be coming down at this time of year due to seasonal changes, recent concentrations are very high, with one recent flask reading exceeding 442 parts per million.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. There is a huge spread in recent readings, which may reflect forest fires.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average methane concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska.

The image below, dated July 21, 2026, shows hourly average nitrous oxide concentrations at Utqiaġvik, formerly known as Barrow, Alaska.

Sadly, the images indicate that concentrations of greenhouse gases are not falling, they are rising instead. Forest fires are striking across the globe, which contributes to forests turning from carbon sinks into carbon sources, as discussed in posts such as this one. Furthermore, forest fires come with huge releases of carbon monoxide that deplete hydroxyl, in turn extending the lifetime of methane, as discussed in an earlier post.

Fossil fuel subsidies and investments

Meanwhile, fossil fuel companies are planning to extract more natural gas. The IEA estimates that around $1.2 trillion is set to be invested in oil, natural gas and coal in 2026. Natural gas investment is projected to rise to $330 billion, the highest level in a decade.

The IMF describes two different types of fossil fuel subsidies. Explicit subsidies (when the retail price is below a fuel’s supply cost) and implicit subsidies (when the retail price fails to include external costs, inclusive of the standard consumption tax). External costs include contributions to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, local health damages (primarily premature deaths) through the release of harmful local pollutants like fine particulates, and traffic congestion, accident, and road damage externalities associated with the use of road fuels.

Conclusion

Links

• The 2026 El Niño

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-2026-el-nino.html

• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (issued July 13, 2026)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• IMF - Fossil Fuel Subsidies (update April 22, 2026)

https://www.imf.org/en/topics/climate-change/energy-subsidies

• IEA - World Energy Investment report 2026

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2026/executive-summary (image)

https://www.iea.org/news/impacts-of-middle-east-conflict-set-to-reshape-energy-investment-plans-as-disruptions-put-focus-on-security (text)

• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - data viewer
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

The 2026 El Niño

Double Blue Ocean 2026/2027?

The 2026 El Niño threatens to contribute to loss of virtually all Arctic sea ice in September 2026, which would in turn result in albedo loss, transfer of ocean heat to the atmosphere and additional emissions that could jointly increase the global temperature dramatically and could subsequently also cause virtually all Antarctic sea to disappear a few months later, as also discussed in an earlier post.

On July 9, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a statement that El Niño is present and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. Forecasts indicate that the 2026 El Niño will reach historic heights within a few months time.

The above image, adapted from NOAA, shows a sea surface temperature anomaly versus 1991-2020 forecast dated July 30, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region (which is most indicative for El Niño development). Forecasts exceed 4.5°C for parts of many members and exceed 4°C for part of the CFS.v2 (Coupled Forecast System version 2) ensemble mean (the black dashed line).

The image below shows a sea surface temperature anomaly forecast dated July 30, 2026, for the Niño3 region. Forecasts exceed 5°C for parts of some forecast members and exceed 4.5°C for part of the mean.

The combination image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1981-2010 in the Niño 1+2 region (located close to South America). The images show that a rise of close to 5°C (from under -1.5°C in the top image to +3.486°C in the bottom image) occurred in less than seven months through July 18, 2026.

The image below is adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. The image shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1951-1980 in the Niño3.4 region over time. This region in the Pacific Ocean is indicative for the strength of El Niño. The image has a potential 2026 El Niño anomaly of 3.5°C added (red dashed line on the right).

According to NOAA, there is a 100% chance of El Niño from June-August 2026 to Jan-March 2027. There is a 99% chance of El Niño in Jan-March 2027 and there is a 97% chance of El Niño in February–April 2027. The image below, from NOAA, also shows strength probabilities. NOAA adds that there is an 81% chance that El Niño in October-December 2026 will be very strong (greater than or equal to 2°C).

The image below shows an ECMWF forecast from July 1, 2026, for the Niño3.4 region on the right, with a map of the El Niño regions on the left.

The combination image below shows ECMWF forecasts from July 1, 2026, for each of the four Niño regions.

On July 16, 2026, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region was 29.43°C, the highest on record for the time of year and 2.32°C above 1982-2010.

The world (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E) sea surface temperature (SST) was 21.06°C on July 17, 2026, a record high for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below by ClimateReanalyzer, based on NOAA OISST V2.1 data. The inset shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026.

The Copernicus image below uses ERA5 data. On July 22, 2026, the world (60°S–60°N) sea surface temperature was 21.02°C, an anomaly of 0.63°C above 1991-2020, and a record high for the time of year. The globe shows sea surface temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 22, 2026.

That's a large difference in SST anomalies! According to ClimateReanalyzer, the SST anomaly was 0.71°C from 1991-2020 on July 17, 2026, while according to Copernicus the SST anomaly was 0.63°C from 1991-2020 on July 22, 2026. Temperature anomalies are essential in the Paris Agreement and it's important how anomalies are calculated.

La Niña conditions were dominant in March 2026, while the 2026 El Niño is now strengthening, which spells bad news for Arctic sea ice.

The forecast below of January 2027 sea surface temperature anomalies should act as a warning of El Niño's strength at a time of very rapid melting of Antarctic sea ice.

Are emissions falling?

With warning signs this large, one would expect politicians to be taking drastic action including action to increase resilience and to reduce emissions caused by people. Yet, is effective action being taken? Are emissions falling, or are they rising?

[ from earlier post, discussed on facebook ]

The top part of the above image shows that, according to The Keeling Curve, the concentration of carbon dioxide was 430.07 parts per million on July 3, 2026, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The background image shows that the concentration of carbon dioxide has been rising for thousands of years, due to deforestation, burning of fuel, animal herding and agriculture by people.

The bottom part of the above mage shows that the temperature has been rising for more than 1500 years, while an added trend shows the potential for a 3°C rise this year, as discussed at the Extinction page.

Greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are rising fast, while methane is rising even faster (see image on the right) and more methane threatens to erupt from the seafloor, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one.

The image below shows that a methane peak of 2686 parts per billion was recorded by the NOAA20 satellite at 399.1 mb on July 7, 2026 AM.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon dioxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent flask reading exceeds 442 parts per million.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows carbon monoxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows methane concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. One recent daily reading exceeds 2000 parts per billion.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows nitrous oxide concentrations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows the globally averaged marine surface mean nitrous oxide concentration through 2025 with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2047.

The image below, dated July 3, 2026, shows sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Some recent flask readings are very high.

The image below, from an earlier post, shows global annual mean SF₆ through 2025, with a trend added to show the potential for a huge rise by 2037.

Temperature

The image below shows that the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was 22.39°C on July 14, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.31°C higher than 1979-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 14, 2026, with the Northern Hemisphere highlighted.

The image below shows that the temperature in the Arctic was 4.96°C on July 4, 2026, a record high for the time of year and 1.33°C higher than 1991-2000. The inset shows temperature anomalies versus 1991-2020 on July 4, 2026., with the Arctic highlighted.

As the 2026 El Niño gains in strength, temperatures can be expected to rise further, which spells bad news for sea ice and for temperatures on land.

The image below was created with a NASA image (250 km smoothing radius) and shows that the temperature in some areas on land in June 2026 was 4°C to 9.8°C higher than in 1951-1980.

Looking more closely at the temperature rise on land is important, since most people do live on land. The image below shows NASA Land Only anomalies versus 1880-1890 (not pre-industrial) through June 2026.

The above image shows that 1.5°C was reached or crossed on land for each month since 2021 (black squares). The image shows a Lowess 4-year smoothing trend (red line) that indicates that 2°C was crossed on land during 2021 and that 3°C may get crossed on land soon, possibly in 2031, if this trend continues (dashed red extension), or as early as in 2026 due to the current El Niño, which - as said at the start of this post - may trigger numerous feedbacks to start kicking in with accelerating ferocity.

Conclusion

Links