Friday, January 12, 2024

Crossing 1.5C - On track toward an uninhabitable Earth

by Andrew Glikson

“… but they can be sure that they won't be recorded for their crimes in history -- because there won't be any history” (Noam Chomsky, 2023)

The macabre criminality of world’s so-called leaders, coupled with the ignorant compliance of a majority of the victims of global heating and potential nuclear annihilation, belong to the inconceivable. It is not clear whether any climate scientists are left to whom governments are listening, for if they did, they would learn that the intensification of extreme weather events currently and later in the century is bound to render large parts of the planet uninhabitable. In particular of islands ravaged by cyclones and sea level rise, extensive tropical and subtropical coastal zones and lands subjected to storms, floods, draughts and fires, in Africa, Australia and India. Polar-sourced cold fronts crossing the weakening jet stream boundary are already disrupting North America, Siberia and Europe, as are warm air masses penetrating the Arctic circle.

Distracted by a series of horrific bloodsheds induced by toxic masculinity of alpha males around the world, propagated by the “media”, the multitudes are only dimly aware of the oncoming climate carnage, orders of magnitude bigger than currently forecast.

According to leading climate scientists like James Hansen and his colleagues: “Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (NASA 2023). It is far from clear whether anything can be done to arrest or reverse global heating, for as temperatures rise so is the production of fossil fuels enhanced by science-ignorant hordes of politicians and economists oblivious to the basic laws of physics. Alternative clean energy without sharp cuts in fossil fuel combustion can hardly stem global heating.

[ Figure. 1. Daily surface temperature analysis from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5 (ERA5). ]

December was the 7th consecutive month of record-shattering global temperature (Figure 1.), driven by the combination of a moderately strong El Nino and a large decrease of Earth’s albedo. Hansen et al. (2024) expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024, due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12- month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920. It will be clear that the 1.5°C ceiling has been passed for all practical purposes, and that the mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 2), while the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than 3 times than the rest of the world.

[ Figure. 2. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis
(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by James Hansen et al., 2024. ]

A projection by NOAA states: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). Unfortunately, this projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming oceans, melting ice sheets, migrating climate zones and melting of methane, nor the time factor into account.

A factor rarely taken into account emerges from Hansen et al. (1996)'s paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous” (Figure 3). Here the flow of cold ice melt water results in formation of large cold-water pools of in the Atlantic and Southern oceans, inducing a contraction of the tropical climate zone and an overall decline in mean global temperatures. The collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical warm air mass would lead to severe storms over large tracts of Earth.

Likely transient respites in global warming (stadials) may take place over the next few centuries or longer, when the flow of cold ice-melt water from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets (Bronselaer et al., 2018; Glikson, 2019) reduces the mean rate of warming, although this may occur too late for civilization (Figure 3).
[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by James Hansen et al. 2016.
Future model transient cooling periods consequent on flow of ice meltwater from Greenland and Antarctica into oceans ]
The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic leaders, matched by the blindness of billions, supports what has been referred to as Fermi’s Paradox ─ where the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, may be explained in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.

Having ignored climate science, dismissed or fired climate scientists and repeatedly confected lies, while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, Homo “sapiens” is finding itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the inhabitable Earth, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.

A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist


Andrew Glikson
Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080


Sunday, January 7, 2024

2024 looks to be worse than 2023


The year 2024 looks to be worse than the year 2023. The above chart shows sea surface temperatures that were extremely high in 2023 followed by a steep rise in 2024, crossing 21°C in early January 2024.

The chart below illustrates this further, showing the daily sea surface temperature anomaly using 1 Sep. 1981 to 31 Dec. 2023 data versus the 1982-2011 mean for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N.

The importance of sea surface temperatures

Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) results in less ocean heat reaching the Arctic Ocean and, instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic in 2023.

Much of the heat in the North Atlantic could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, as storms can temporarily speed up currents strongly, carrying huge amounts of ocean heat with them into the Arctic Ocean.


The mechanism behind this has been described often in earlier posts and this page. Meltwater and rain can cause a freshwater lid to form and grow at the surface of the North Atlantic and this, in combination with greater stratification as ocean temperatures rise (above image), can enable more ocean heat to increasingly travel underneath this lid from the North Atlantic into the Arctic Ocean, and especially so at times when Jet Stream changes are causing storms that speed up ocean currents along this path.


The danger is illustrated by the above image, showing a forecast for January 11, 2024, with the Jet Stream moving almost vertically over the North Atlantic to the north. The image below shows heat over the North Atlantic, with temperatures reaching as high as 10.5°C or 50.8°F over Greenland (at the green circle) at 1000 hPa on January 10, 2024, 07:00 UTC.


The image below shows 2 meter temperature anomalies on January 11, 2024. 


Very high sea surface temperature anomalies can occur in the path of the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image below showing high sea surface temperatures on January 3, 2024, as high as 11.7°C (21°F) at the green circle, over the counterpart of the Gulf Stream in the Pacific, off the coast of Japan. 


Earlier posts have warned about this, such as this post and this video, almost seven years ago. This could cause events during which much ocean heat moves abruptly into the Arctic Ocean, resulting in seafloor methane releases, overwhelming of the latent heat buffer and causing sea ice loss (and thus albedo loss), as well as loss of lower clouds (thus causing further albedo loss), while open oceans are also less efficient than sea ice when it comes to emitting in the far-infrared region of the spectrum and while an ice-free Arctic Ocean will also release more ocean heat into the atmosphere.


Arctic sea ice volume is very low for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image.

A large part of the thicker sea ice is located off Greenland's East Coast, as illustrated by the above image. Much of the sea ice will therefore rapidly disappear as the water heats up in 2024.


The above image, adapted from tropicaltidbits.com, shows a forecast for October 2024 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean.

In the video below, Jennifer Francis is interviewed by Nick Breeze. 



The importance of daily air temperatures, Northern Hemisphere


[ from the Extinction page ]
The situation is dire. The Northern Hemisphere is getting hit hardest by high temperatures, as illustrated by the above image. 

The Northern Hemisphere is home to some 90% of the world population of more than 8 billion people, with much of them living in South-East Asia.

As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in.

People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt.

Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise.

As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise.

The image on the right illustrates how fast a huge temperature could unfold.

As a somewhat sobering footnote, humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as discussed in an earlier post.


Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.



Links






Friday, December 22, 2023

Too late to save the climate?

by Andrew Glikson

“Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise 
by 2.5°C to 4.5°C by 2100” (NASA 2023)

“We Will Not Sign Our Own Death Warrant” (a delegate at COP28)


Whether anything can be done by humans to arrest or reverse global warming and its consequences for the habitability of planet Earth remains an open question, for which neither climate science nor the ignorant hordes of politicians and economists, oblivious to the basic laws of physics, have the answer. However, it is likely that over the next centuries or longer the flow of cold water from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets will lead to a transient slowdown of the rate of warming before the large ice sheets are exhausted.



Having ignored climate science, dismissed climate scientists and repeatedly confected untruths, while global heating accelerates with deleterious consequences, Homo “sapiens” finds itself on track toward carbon poisoning of the atmosphere, the lungs of the inhabitable Earth, acidification of the hydrosphere and coating of the land with carbon and plastics.

In a new paper, a group of leading climate scientists (Hansen et al., 2023) indicates mean global temperature is currently accelerating toward 2.0°C above pre-industrial temperature by the middle of the decade (Figure 1). The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the world over the last 43 years, on average around 3℃ warmer than it was in 1980. Over the past 30 years Antarctica has been one of the fastest-changing places on Earth, warming more than 3 times faster than the rest of the world.

[ Figure. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS
(Goddard Institute of Space Studies) analysis - by James Hansen et al., 2023. ]

As the polar regions warm, the tropical climate zones expand and the mid-latitudes, where the most fertile soils are and where the bulk of the population lives, are contracting.

Thus (Figure 2.):
  • Agro-climate zones in eastern Europe experienced a northward migration velocity of 100 km per 10 years over the past 40 years.
  • Northward migration of climate zones in Europe may be up to two times faster in the next decades.
  • Negative impacts of heat stress are expected to non-linearly increase in large parts of southern and southeastern Europe.

[ Figure 2. (a) Agro-climate zonation of Europe based on growing season length (GSL) and active temperature sum (ATS) for the period between 1975 and 1995.The identified agro-climate zones are named as follows (going from north to south): boreal north (BON), boreal south (BOS), nemoral (NEM), continental (CON), Pannonian (PAN), northern maritime (NMA), southern maritime (SMA) and Mediterranean (MED). (b) The migration of agro-climate zones between the 1975–1995 and 1996–2016 periods. For better distinction, only the areas affected by migration of agro-climate zones are displayed (colored areas), while gray color denotes the areas where the agro-climate zones have not changed - Ceglar et al. 2019. ]

A projection by NOAA states: “While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”). This projection takes neither the amplifying feedback, i.e. from warming of the oceans, melting ice sheets, melting of the permafrost, migrating climate zones, nor the time factor into account.

Factors rendering a potential reversal of global warming in the short term unlikely include:
  1. The rise of mean global heating above a level of ~1.5oC and much higher at the poles above pre-industrial temperatures, polar-ward migration of climate zones, melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, intensification of extreme weather events, requiring major cooling of the Earth, which is unlikely within the time frame of a tribal-conflicted civilization.

  2. Where scientific breakthroughs would allow effective climate mitigation, for example global cooling by CO₂ drawdown, it is questionable whether Homo sapiens ─ recorded by history as an invasive blood-stained tribal species ─ would be able to avoid destroying its home planet.
The apparent absence of radio signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way may suggest that advanced civilizations tend to undergo self-destruction, consistent with local observations, referred to as the “Fermi Paradox”.

A factor rarely taken into account emerges from the key paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modelling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”, by Hansen et al. (1996) (Figure 3.).
[ Figure 3. Surface air temperature (°C) relative to 1880-1920 for several scenarios - by James Hansen et al. 2016. ]

Here the flow of cold ice-melt water results in formation of large cold pools in the Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean (Figure 3), related to an overall decline in mean global temperatures to -0.33°C by 2096 (Figure 4.) due to the flow of cold ice-melt  water from Greenland and Antarctica.

While the collision between the cold air and water fronts and the tropical war air mass would lead to intense storms over large tracts of Earth, such transient cooling may allow Home "sapiens" a respite from global warming before its home becomes an uninhabitable planet.

[ Figure 4. Surface air temperature (◦C) relative to 1880–1920 in (a) 2065, (b) 2080, and (c) 2096. Top row is IPCC scenario A1B. Ice melt with 10-year doubling is added in other scenarios - James Hansen et al. 2016. ]


A/Prof. Andrew Y Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist


Andrew Glikson
Books:

The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
The Trials of Gaia. Milestones in the evolution of Earth with reference to the Antropocene
https://www.amazon.com.au/Trials-Gaia-Milestones-Evolution-Anthropocene/dp/3031237080


Thursday, December 14, 2023

Double Blue Ocean Event 2024?

A double Blue Ocean Event could occur in 2024. Both Antarctic sea ice and Arctic sea ice could virtually disappear in 2024. A Blue Ocean Event (BOE) occurs when sea ice extent falls to 1 million km² or less, which could occur early 2024 for Antarctic sea ice and in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere for Arctic sea ice.

Antarctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Antarctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below, which shows that on December 12, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², a record low for the time of year.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.788 million km² on February 21, 2023. Antarctic sea ice extent may well be much lower in February 2024, with sea ice loss fuelled by several self-reinforcing feedback loops, as discussed in an earlier post.

Arctic sea ice loss

The situation regarding Arctic sea ice extent is pictured in the image below.

[ image adapted from NSIDC ]

The above image shows that on December 12, 2023, Arctic sea ice extent was 9.499 million km², third lowest low for the time of year, behind 2016 and 2020.

Temperature November 2023



The above image shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly compared to a 1951-1980 base. The image below also shows the November 2023 temperature anomaly, but it is not compared to a 1951-1980 base (NASA's default), it is instead compared to a 1900-1923 base.

Of course, the temperature anomaly will be much higher when compared to pre-industrial. Further adjustments are required, because the NASA data are for sea surface temperatures (rather than temperatures of the air 2 meters above the sea surface). Also note the grey areas on the above map, signifying that no data are available for earlier years. This especially affects the Arctic, where the anomalies are highest, so disregarding these data is not appropriate. In the image below, data are adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect all this, as discussed at the pre-industrial page.

[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image is created with NASA Land+Ocean monthly mean global temperature anomalies vs 1900-1923, adjusted by 0.99°C to reflect ocean air temperature, higher polar anomalies and a pre-industrial base. Blue: Polynomial trend based on Jan.1880-Nov. 2023 data. Magenta: Polynomial trend based on Jan. 2010-Nov. 2023 data.

The above images illustrate that temperatures are rising strongly in the Arctic, which gives a dire warning that a Blue Ocean Event could occur in Summer 2024 in the Northern Hemisphere that could further speed up global temperatures, as illustrated by the magenta-colored trend in the above image.

The situation is dire


Temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere were more than 2°C above 1951-1980 recently (2.024°C in October 2023 and 2.058 in November 2023), as illustrated by the above image. Note that anomalies on the image are calculated from 1951-1980 and that anomalies from pre-industrial are higher.

Land-only temperature anomalies can be much higher than land+ocean anomalies, since oceans act as a buffer. It is therefore most important to look at the land-only temperature anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere, since that is where the highest anomalies occur, at the very places where most people live. Furthermore, as temperatures keep rising, more extreme weather events occur, with an increase in intensity, frequency, duration and area covered by such events. The urban heat island effect can further add to the rising high temperature peaks reached in cities.

The precautionary principle urges the world to closely watch peak hourly local wet-bulb globe temperatures, rather than to hide the full wrath of the temperature rise by focusing on global temperature anomalies that are compared to recent base periods and that are averaged over periods going back ten years or longer. 

Temperatures are rising most rapidly in the Arctic, which contributes to the occurrence of more extreme weather events. Low temperatures in Winter in the Arctic are essential to build up ice thickness to preserve sea ice as the melting season starts.

[ Climatology temperatures are 1979-2000 averages and anomalies are calculated
from 1979-2000 averages. Black line: 2023. Orange line: 2022. Grey line: 2016. ]

Arctic temperature hit a record high for the time of year on December 15, 2023, and an anomaly of 5°C, as the above image shows. Arctic anomalies are the highest in the world, as illustrated by the record 8.3°C anomaly that was reached on November 18, 2016. Since the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal, Arctic anomalies could reach even higher records in the next few months.

On December 12, 2023, as said, Arctic sea ice extent was third lowest for the time of year, i.e. only 2016 and 2020 were lower. The years 2016 and 2020 had the highest annual temperature (a tie) on record and this annual temperature record is likely to be surpassed in 2023, while 2024 may be even worse, as the chance that the current El Niño will slow down soon is minimal.

[ Water Vapor tipping point ]

In the video below, Anton Petrov discusses the runaway greenhouse effect. 



This is important, as a very small increase in solar irradiation – leading to an increase of the global Earth temperature, of only a few tens of degrees – would be enough to trigger an irreversible runaway process on Earth and make our planet as inhospitable as Venus, a recent study concludes, as discussed at this post.

A temperature rise of more than 10°C could unfold as early as by end 2026, due to contributions of gases (including water vapor), aerosols, albedo changes and further elements, in the process causing the clouds tipping point to get crossed, which could add a further 8°C to the rise.

This rise could in turn cause the water vapor tipping point to be crossed. The rise in water vapor alone could from then on suffice to push temperatures up further, in a runaway greenhouse process in which evaporation causes a global surface temperature rise of several hundred degrees Celsius. 

Arctic sea ice could have been even lower in extent, had the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) not been slowing down. As a result of AMOC's slowing down, less ocean heat is reaching the Arctic Ocean. Instead, a huge amount of ocean heat has been accumulating in the North Atlantic and much of this heat could soon be pushed abruptly into the Arctic Ocean as storms temporarily speed up currents that carry ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice volume is getting very low, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from Polar Portal

Meanwhile, Earth's radiation imbalance is very high, emissions are high and rising, and politicians refuse to act responsibly, all contributing to further deterioration of the situation, with the danger that ocean heat will reach and destabilize methane hydrates that are contained in sediments at the seafloor of oceans, resulting in massive methane eruptions, further pushing up global temperatures, as discussed in many earlier posts such as this one and this one

As more people become aware of the dire situation, widespread panic may set in, as this 2007 post warned about. People may stop showing up for work, resulting in a rapid loss of the aerosol masking effect, as industries that now co-emit cooling aerosols (such as sulfates) grind to a halt. Many people may start to collect and burn more wood, resulting in an increase in emissions that speed up the temperature rise. As temperatures rise, more fires could also break out in forests, peatlands and urban areas including landfills and waste dumps, further contributing to emissions that speed up the temperature rise.

Ominously, the highest methane levels on record (surface flasks) were recently reached at Barrow, Alaska, U.S., as illustrated by the image below.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group


Links

• NSIDC - Interactive sea ice chart
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph

• NOAA - December 2023 El Niño update
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

• Climate Reanalyzer - November 2023 temperature anomaly
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_maps

• Climate Reanalyzer - Monthly reanalysis time series
https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries

• Climate Reanalyzer - Daily surface air temperature, Arctic
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=arctic

• NASA - maps
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps

• NASA - custom plots
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/customize.html

• First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model - by Guillaume Chaverot et al.
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2023/12/aa46936-23/aa46936-23.html
• Polar Portal

NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory - Barrow, Alaska


• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Will temperatures keep rising fast?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/12/will-temperatures-keep-rising-fast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html